My road map to 10 Trillion USD+ economy in 10 years.

HariPrasad-1

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My road map to 10 Trillion USD+ economy in 10 years.


We are a 3 Tr USD economy in 2019-20. It took us almost 6 decades to become 1 Tr USD economy, another decade to add 1 trillion USD morev and another 5 years to add more 1 trillion USD . In fact, we would have done that in 4 years only but like it always happens, the depreciation of rupee struck adversely and delayed our goal of reaching to 3 trillion dollar mark buy one year.

If we explore the the historic data of trade deficit versis value of INR against USD , we can see that when the trade deficit was low INR had strengthened. Between 2002 to 2005, trade deficit was low and as a result INR appreciated from rupees 47 to Rupees 42. Once again in 2007 when trade deficit reduced from high level in 2006 INR was appreciated by 3 to 4 rupees to Rupees 41. Between two thousand to 2004To achieve the goal of high GDP, the strengthening of INR is very important.

To achieve a goal of rupees 10 bill trillion dollar economy within 10 years compound growth rate of 12.5% is required which is very much achievable looking to the the our current economic growth but we should make it sure that the economic growth we achieve is not neutralized or eaten up by depreciation in INR. Therefore my suggestion is to create a economy where our currency does not become weak every year or every passage of time.

Our economy in purchase power parity is 4 time higher than the value of power economy in nominal value which indicates that ourour Indian Rupee is undervalued 4 times in terms of purchase power. This is actually very unfair and it gives other country undue advantage of purchase of Indian goods at a very lower rate compared to what we can buy out of our own money in other country. This need to be changed to achieve the high GDP figures and I am going to discuss my road map and plans to achieve those figure. I am not going to discuss in details how we can increase our growth rate but my main focus shall be on how to appreciate aur currency so that we can achieve a very high growth rate with current GDP growth rate. It is possible by appreciating our currency. Now some people will argue that it will affect our export. I am going to touch those aspects of economy as well. My whole roadmap is based on cutting import to achieve trade surplus and boosting of Exports along with some other measures. This will include uplifting poor section and farmers so as to create high demand in the the economically poor section to achieve demand based GDP growth rate. All honorable members are requested to to give their input and make this thread a knowledge treasure.

Thank you very much.
 
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HeinzGud

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How would India cope with the water crisis? Can India sustain a steady agricultural output to feed it's own people for the coming decades?
 

HariPrasad-1

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If we check our figures of import of last year, it has a hefty bill of 115 billion US dollars for crude oil import which amounts to 27% of our total import. This is followed by 14% figure of import of Gems and Jewellery this is followed by almost 8% Import of equipment and machineries. These three items put together amounts 50% of our total import.
I will focus on these items to see how we can reco
Turn our country in a trade surplus economy to make our currency strong.

In first, I am going to discuss how we can cut our crude oil import bill short and then subsequently how to reduce Gems and Jewellery import followed by cutting of import of capital goods and other measures.
 

HariPrasad-1

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How would India cope with the water crisis? Can India sustain a steady agricultural output to feed it's own people for the coming decades?
This requires a separate thread which I can create and discuss my views if members want but this discussion will touch those areas but in very brief.
 

HariPrasad-1

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My plan to cut short import bills of crude oil is is like this with high growth in economy, we have added too many private and commercial vehicles in last couple of decades which run on petrol and diesel. This ultimately results into a very heavy import bill running in in over 100 billion US dollars. in last few years this is the one import item which turn our economy into to large trade deficit economy which puts pressure on our currency. Now with the emergence of alternative of petrol and diesel, in form of biodiesel/ biofuel such as methanol and electric vehicle. If this areas are explored wisely and aggressively with proper investment done in it, within next decade, we can cut short our import bill of crude oil less than half in spite of increase in vehicles .

Now I will discuss how can we move to electric vehicle quickly by abandoning the petrol and diesel vehicles. Not a long time ago when Hyundai launched its i20 car with electric batteries, it had a price tag of Rupees 28 lakh. In a very short span of time, Tata came up with his popular nexon SUV with electric power. The price of same was almost half of Hyundai i20 in spite of nexon being a sport utility vehicle. This is the Rapid rate at which the price of electric vehicles or lithium ion battery is decreasing with the the commercial production gaining momentum. Our government should make a policy in which government should discourage the production of petrol and diesel vehicle and encourag the production of electrically operated vehicles. To do that, this Petrol diesel vehicles should be put into GST rate bracket of 28%. If required, put additional cess on it. On another hand, they should reduce the duty of electric vehicle to lower rate slab. This will decrease the gap between the purchase price of electric and petrol / diesel vehicles. The price difference is currently about 1.62 to 2 times. This can be brought down to somewhere between 1.2 to 1.4 Times. With production gaining momentum, battery prices of electric vehicles will match the price of petrol and diesel vehicles. This will encourage people to buy electric vehicle which are very cheap to run. Once the purchase price difference narrows, people will have no option but to move to electric vehicles.

Our government has imposed higher duty on hybrid vehicles using SOHC technology which improve the fuel efficiency of diesel vehicle by 25 to 30%. I don't know why the vehicles using this technology which improves the mileage should be put in in higher tax bracket. It is foolish. In fact government should make it compulsory for all commercial vehicle to go for this technology so as to reduce the fuel cost by 25 to 30%. if this measures are taken then people will move from diesel and petrol vehicle to electric vehicles which will save huge amount of petrol and diesel imports reducing trade deficite. Decrease in crude oil demand will bring its price down as well. Oil exporter countries cannot charge high rate when the demand is already very low. This will help us in reducing trade deficit to a large extent and turn our economy into a trade surplus economy . It will no longer depend on remittance of NRI to pluge the trade deficit gap. This will reduce the pressure on our currency and help it to stengthen it against almost all currencies of the world. Once our currency become strong , nominal GDP will grow automatically respective of GDP growth in nominal terms.
 
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HariPrasad-1

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The other measure I suggest is to go for ultra mega solar power plants in big way. Gas based combined cycle power plants and coal based power plants should be banned from immediate effect. Currently, the tariff of solar power has reduced to less than rupees 2.5 per unit from rupees 12 to 13 a decade ago. With solar panels produced in big numbers, price of the same is will reduce further. This will bring down one unit of solar power further. It is likely to go down to around 1 rupees 60 paise to 1 rupees 70 paise per unit. If this is done in a big way, we will be able to eleminate big amount of coal import bill which is used in power plants. Gas import built can also be cut short. Gas based power plant will become obsolete and there will be no usage of gas in electricity generation. If Solar panel will become cheap with large scale production., It will be used in a big way in in household as well which will reduce electricity demand from government source.

With electric panels becoming cheap, each household will have its rooftop power plant to meet the needs of his or her household electricity. A fat electricity bill will be go away which will put extra money in every pocket to spend them somewhere else. Not only this will happen with domestic electricity consumption, but once the electric power is available cheaply, people will use the same for cooking and heating as well . We are definitely moving in this direction but some Harsh measures are required to move to this mission as quickly as possible. We can cut short big gas import bill to a large extent. If This is done , we can cut short or eliminate import bill. Our domestic gas and coal consumption will be sufficient to meet our requirements. Self sufficiency Hindi field of energy requirement is a strategic advantage too. This shitty Arab countries cannot arm twist us if we are not dependent on them for crude oil and gas.
 
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HariPrasad-1

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Now, my most important suggestion for reducing oil imports is coming up. It is to go for biofuel in a big way. Now there are plants which can produce methanol from bio waste at a cost around rupees 25 a letter after adjustment of calorific value which is 80% of the petrol, the price of 1 litre petrol equivalent methanol will be rupees 30.

Like Nitin Gadkari had said it once, India should go for many small bio fuel plants located in every corner of the country. We are putting up refineres at a cost of thousands of crore. However, if this money is spend in small bio fuel plants in numbers, it can change our energy availability scenario. Remote places will no longer be dependent on petrol and diesel supplied in tanker. They will have their own source of petrol diesel alternative at a cost of less than half compared to What they have to spend on petrol or diesel. This will enrich farmers as well. Government should put one such plant in each and every district of India to encourage methanol or biodiesel production locally in villages.

The most important aspect is to go for bamboo plantation in Mega scale. One acre of bamboo plantation can produce 40 to 50 tons Bamboo every year on an average by which we can produce 12000 liters of methanol which after the calorific value adjustment is equal to 10,000 liters of petrol in energy. If we go for or a large scale bamboo plantation and produce methanol , we can cut short crude oil import by more than 60 barrels per acre of bamboo plantation. This will cut short crude oil import bill 2500 US dollars per acre of bamboo plantation. If one half of the savings is transfer to farmers , they can prosper and the money goes into the hands of farmer will increase there purchasing power which will lead to to demand of goods and services in India. As a result, there will be a demand pull growth in GDP. Government will require less amount of subsidy to help farmers which can alternatively be used for other purpose. If we are able to cut short import of crude oil by half, and transfer that money in agriculture sector, tens of millions of lives will change. It will be a game changer in poverty elimination as well. The other big advantage will be that it will make us a big trade surplus country which will be self sufficient in energy sector and not dependent on remittances to bridge the gap of trade deficit. Our currency will strengthen and it will help us to achieve a goal of 10 Bn + USD economy in coming 10 years.

Now let me disclose the most wonderful aspect of bamboo plantation. It need to be planted only once in many decades. If it is grown in big way for fuel production , it can finish off all pollution from atmosphere. There is no other plant as capable as bamboo to reduce pollution. Government should plant hundreds of bamboo jungles in cities. It can be grown in 100 Sq land to virtually any big area. You will be effectively be able to fight against atmospheric pollution.
 
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Hijibiji

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Somebody here used to say that Oil was the root cause and source of everything in the world. At least from Indian perspective, Oil is of utmost importance and as our visionary member @HariPrasad-1 envisages, the govt must eliminate economy of oil as much as possible.

Solar Power, Wind Power, Nuclear Power - all these are required.

As a lower middle class guy, I would like to spend in buying an electric motorcycle (no scooty for me). But the electric motorcycle must NOT be chinese made. But I need a charging infrastructure either within walking distance of my house (if not in the house) and at regular distances on the road.

Will this be possible? In how many years and in which cities/ states/ distrcits?
 

HariPrasad-1

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Somebody here used to say that Oil was the root cause and source of everything in the world. At least from Indian perspective, Oil is of utmost importance and as our visionary member @HariPrasad-1 envisages, the govt must eliminate economy of oil as much as possible.

Solar Power, Wind Power, Nuclear Power - all these are required.

As a lower middle class guy, I would like to spend in buying an electric motorcycle (no scooty for me). But the electric motorcycle must NOT be chinese made. But I need a charging infrastructure either within walking distance of my house (if not in the house) and at regular distances on the road.

Will this be possible? In how many years and in which cities/ states/ distrcits?

Many people already uses electrical vehicles. If you want to travel long distance, there will be a problem. If you want to use it in city, no problem at all. Just recharge in night and use whole day.
 

HariPrasad-1

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The other most important important area is Gems and Jewellery items. This amount to a big outlay of over 50 Billion US Dollars. Government should impose more duty on tese item at least till we achieve respectable trade surplus figure. On the other hand, It amounts to second most export in terms of value as well. Government should discourage Import of Gems and Jewellery and encourage its export. I don't have to say much here except that it should be discouraged till the trade deficit is high. We can subsequently relax the import when trade balance position is favorable.
 
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HariPrasad-1

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Third most important item in terms of value is machinery and capital goods. This figure has come down in recent times. Subsequent to vajpayee ji's time, the capital goods import Soar seven times in a decade crossing 70 billion dollar per year. The corresponding figure was just 10 billion dollars when Vajpayee ji's time. Capital goods import figure crossed seven times in chidambaram's time. Out these import, 85% of the capital goods imported in that period was that goods which we were already producing in India. We allowed turbines and power plants at etc to be imported from China at a very liberal terms and conditions. We tried nothing to stop it to enter into India and this is the decision which hit us very very hard. In terms of spoiling domestic industries, spoiling our trade balance and smiling our currency value.

We should make it sure that no items which is already produced in India should easily be allowed to be imported from any other country. Only those capital goods and machinery import should be allowed which we don't produce in India. Like Baba Kalyani had once said that our export potential lies in export of Hi-Tech items at a low cost. Our strength is not in sale of low cost ordinary item sold in world market at a very low cost like China does. Do not allow the import of any machinery which we are able to produce in India. infact , we should focus on export of those items from India such as steam turbines, gas turbines , power plants, trucks, Diesel And electric locomotives , engineering goods, aircraft parts, automobiles and automotive parts etcetera.

Our potential has remained by and large untapped in the field of export . Our capability to export many consumer goods ranging from fans to air conditioners, and from trucks and dumpers to electric locomotives and even passenger planes. I don't see any reason why this capital goods import sshould be allowed by government ? It should be discouraged by imposing heavy import duties.

We have a very big trade deficit with China we should deal with China. Like Trump deals with China, we should told tell China that we cannot allow such a big trade defici. if they want to sell goods to us , relax the the norms of import from India otherwise India will do all in her power to cut short the import from China. if we are able to manage the trade deficit with China, half of our problem is solved This is an area where the government should have the maximum focus. It seems that government is focusing on that but the amount of focus and attention required is lacking . I want to see a very narrow trade deficit with China in coming 4 to 5 years. We should impose heavy taxes on all goods imported from China like US has does. We should buy from China only as much as they buy from us. They should not be allowed to take the advantage of their cheap goods to be sold in India. We can be a Trade surplus Nation if we are able to manage trade balance with China and take the appropriate measures to content the crude oil import like I said in my previous post, we can manage trade balance.If we are able to check capital goods import and oil import, we can manage trade deficit and turn it into trade surplus.
 
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HariPrasad-1

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The problem with our psyche which developed over last few decades is that we always think in terms of big macro ,centralized solutions ever. We don't think for micro localized solutions. This has created many issues. For example, if one village is facing water crisis. We shall think of putting up a big pipe line from far away distance rather than building a lake in village or building other water conservation bodies. This is a time to rethink on the strong beliefs which has ingrained in our mind. We always think that our energy solution lies in putting up big refineries and exploring oil. In a country like India, if we try to get a local micro level solutions, we can address many of our issues. Like I said, bio fuel or bio diesel can relax our petroleum need to a large extent if the sufficient attention is paid.

Today, bio diesel is available in my city at a rate lower than mineral oil diesel. Challenges lies in commercializing it from pilot project level.
 

HariPrasad-1

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Government policies for domestic production of items which are imported

Government should make a policy in which government should give all concessions to those items which we currently import and not manufactured in India. Government should make a list of those items and encourage our private sectors to make those products in India. They should be given long term concession so that they are no more dependent on other countries for those critical items. Recently there was a news that because of coronavirus in China, certain chemicals used in Indian Pharmaceutical companies for making drugs will be affected. Now this is a bad situation we should learn a lesson from this and encourage domestic manufacturer to produce all those chemicals in India.

We have been importing palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for a long long time. I don't know why we cannot plant and grows palm trees in India. I don't know whether the Indian environment is not suitable for thm or is any other reason? we are spending almost over 4% of amount of our total on import of edible oil for human consumption. Why should this be happen in primarily agriculture based country like India. Why can't our farmers grow those trees and make us independent of any agriculture item import? This is possible . Government should take this on mission basis to make country totally free of any agriculture product import from outside the country.

Because of the bad policies of a government, we are forced to important huge quantity of furniture wood from the countries like Malaysia and others. Because the policy Framework is so bad, that if I plant a teak wood in my own farm and cut it, I will face all harassment as if I have stolen the wood from forest. This should be corrected. Farmers should be encouraged to plant furniture wood trees in country. They should be allowed to cut it and sell it the way they like without any harrassment. They should not face any e arrestment for cutting and selling the trees with them self planted in their own land. Satguru is also advocating this for a long long time. If this is done , we can not only double the farmers income but we can multiply the farmers income 8 to 10 fold. The profit a farmer can get from this Timber tree is simply exorbitant and many time more than they can get it from traditional farming. We can save a big amount of foreign exchange outflow and create domestic wealth and employment.

We should Look into all qualities which actually hinders the potential of domestic farmers and domestic manufacturers. Government should form a Commission to give recommendations for removal of all such old laws which are the main obstacle ine exploding the potential of farmers manufacturer and service providers. All these old British time laws should be scrapped and a friendly law should be made. Government should work like a friend and supporter and not like a policeman who does the work of harassment.
 
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HariPrasad-1

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My other suggestion to improve our trade balance position is this. Whenever we want to import anything from anywhere, we should ask that particular country to balance that export with import from India if such item is not very critical. Like it happened in the case of Malaysia , as soon as we stoped importing oil from them, they said that they want to compensate import by India by buying sugar from India. Till date , they were not doing this. China has put many restrictions onl many products from India including basmati rice. How can we allow this when we have such a big trade deficit with China? Like Trump said to China, we should also make it clear that we want to eleminate trade deficit. If china is willing to allow import from India on the liberal terms and conditions and willing to allow liberal imports from India, than only India is interested in doing business with China. We should not hesitate at all to put big import duties on all the goods imported from China. We should not allow those good such asx capital goods like turbines and power plants from China at all because we manufacture it in India.

Like we follow the offset policy in defence procurement, we should follow similar offset policies is in other imports as well. Whenever we want to import something , we should put a condition that that particular country should compensate their export to India with import of particular percentage of that export by compensating them with import from India.
 

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My road map to 10 Bn USD+ economy in 10 years.


We are a 3 Tr USD economy in 2019-20. It took us almost 6 decades to become 1 Tr USD economy, another decade to add 1 trillion USD morev and another 5 years to add more 1 trillion USD . In fact, we would have done that in 4 years only but like it always happens, the depreciation of rupee struck adversely and delayed our goal of reaching to 3 trillion dollar mark buy one year.

If we explore the the historic data of trade deficit versis value of INR against USD , we can see that when the trade deficit was low INR had strengthened. Between 2002 to 2005, trade deficit was low and as a result INR appreciated from rupees 47 to Rupees 42. Once again in 2007 when trade deficit reduced from high level in 2006 INR was appreciated by 3 to 4 rupees to Rupees 41. Between two thousand to 2004To achieve the goal of high GDP, the strengthening of INR is very important.

To achieve a goal of rupees 10 bill trillion dollar economy within 10 years compound growth rate of 12.5% is required which is very much achievable looking to the the our current economic growth but we should make it sure that the economic growth we achieve is not neutralized or eaten up by depreciation in INR. Therefore my suggestion is to create a economy where our currency does not become weak every year or every passage of time.

Our economy in purchase power parity is 4 time higher than the value of power economy in nominal value which indicates that ourour Indian Rupee is undervalued 4 times in terms of purchase power. This is actually very unfair and it gives other country undue advantage of purchase of Indian goods at a very lower rate compared to what we can buy out of our own money in other country. This need to be changed to achieve the high GDP figures and I am going to discuss my road map and plans to achieve those figure. I am not going to discuss in details how we can increase our growth rate but my main focus shall be on how to appreciate aur currency so that we can achieve a very high growth rate with current GDP growth rate. It is possible by appreciating our currency. Now some people will argue that it will affect our export. I am going to touch those aspects of economy as well. My whole roadmap is based on cutting import to achieve trade surplus and boosting of Exports along with some other measures. This will include uplifting poor section and farmers so as to create high demand in the the economically poor section to achieve demand based GDP growth rate. All honorable members are requested to to give their input and make this thread a knowledge treasure.

Thank you very much.
Sir, I am sure you mean ten trillion USD and not ten Bn USD,, change the heading and introductory narrative please.
 

HariPrasad-1

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Policy in booming aviation sector.

India is witnessing very big boom in aviation sector with aviation traffic increasing at rapid rate of around 20%. Now we have more planes in order than we use in India today for air transportation. Mow, this is going to result in a big foreign exchange outflow. We had a plan to make a domestic passenger plane of 100 seater. However, require RND fund was never located. After so many years, we are discussing today about regional transport aircraft in pictures and forums only.

We started Saras project very long back but because incompetent governments, and lethargic RND institutions, we don't have that plane ready for production even today after almost couple of decades. Had we had it operational today, we could have saved a big amount of foreign exchange today and in coming few years.

There was a news that a made in India plane will fly from Tata facility by 2016 but I don't know what happened to that. Sukhoi Corporation head offerred a hundred seater passenger plane for make in India. What what happened to that proposal is unknown today. We are in dismal state of production of Civil Aviation aircrafts today. if is a time that Indian government should come up with vibrant aviation policy with major thrust on make in India production.

Today we are left with the only option to save foreign exchange reserve in aviation sector or plane purchase is to form a policy of offsetting like we follow in case of Defence purchase. We should ask exporting companies to purchase certain amount of their export order from India amounting to at least 30 to 50% of the export value.

We should put project saras in mission mode to complete it within couple of years, and start production immediately. There is going to be a big demand of this sort of small planes in India in coming years. When that gathers movementum, owe should have our domestic plane in hand to produce in large numbers.
 

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