Monitoring US Economy

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how come UK forex reserves average only about 100 billion $?
is it the case that, for them foreign exchange is available so freely that they don't need to maintain huge forex?
Affluent societies with rich populations like US and UK were never expected to ever default. Investors trusted British and American blindly for returns and their governments never needed to keep any reserves.

In case of newly industrialised states like China and India whose future wasn't certain, they needed to maintain huge reserves to assure investors that they can bail themselves and investors out of any eventuality.

These things might change from now on as countries like UK become Argentina and perceptions change.
These people graduate from top economic schools and give this bullshit advice.

US people financially will be destroyed in next 20 yrs, by Liberal media.

Look at inequality

View attachment 173654

Of course.

>We're in a recession
>Here's why that's a good thing
>10 ways a depression could be really good for you
>Here's why total collapse is a good thing.
In case of India, western and Chinese recession is going to be better, push it into a relatively stronger position in a short span of time just like COVID-19 brought China.
 

Trial By Fire

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Less than a decade ago, the pound was worth the better part of two dollars.

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A currency losing nearly half of its value in less than a decade is completely outrageous. To put that in context: the pound has performed about as well as the ruble against the dollar since 2014 when the US began trying to destroy Russia’s economy through sanctions and otherwise.

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In the last five years, the ruble has actually done better than the pound. The pound has lost 10% of its value in the last six months.

The British government is responding to this situation by…...








Printing more money.


Meanwhile, the government is saying “stand with the Ukraine and remember your tranny pronouns, goyim.”

Just so you understand: global currencies collapsing means that the dollar is collapsing. Every currency is either pegged to the dollar or de facto pegged to the dollar, because the dollar is the global reserve currency.

The United States uses the dollar system to export its internal inflation and spread it out across the world, and various countries are not able to bear that burden due to their own troubles.

The thing is: as these foreign currencies collapse, the dollar is buoyed because these countries have to start relying on the dollar. In some third world countries, people will just start using it in stores and so on, but definitely larger deals get done in the dollar, and rich people move their liquid into the dollar to avoid the devaluation.

The dollar goes up because of this, in theory – but it’s not going up; all that these global currency collapses are doing is slowing the spiral of decline.

When every currency has collapsed, the dollar will collapse. There is nothing else that can happen.

People who are saying “things aren’t that bad” have no idea what they’re talking about. It’s impossible to state how bad things actually are.
 

Trial By Fire

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1664517040493.png


Everyone who is not a retard knows The Great Satan blew up the Nord Stream I & II. That said, it's good to have clear evidence US military aircraft were over the pipelines immediately before the explosions. Seen the flight data yet?

When did the explosions happen?
First one: 2:03am local time.
Second one: 7:04am local time.

What about the flights?


NO call sign. NO transponder. NO data about the flight. It flies directly over the Nord Stream, a mile from the explosion. It then flies over Poland where it links up with BART12 (KC-135) to refuel for about 15 minutes where it then returns to fly directly over the Nord Stream again and disappears from radar.

What's particularly interesting: this flight came directly from Greenland where The Great Satan has had a nuclear strike base for many years. If this was a routine flight, even patrolling for subs or whatever, why not turn on your call sign etc?

Why fly ALL THE WAY FROM GREENLAND and back again when The Great Satan has bases in German and Poland mere miles away from the Nord Stream region? The answer is obvious.

But what about the second explosion at 7:04am local time?

North of Gdynia this aircraft reappears about 6:20am+ and again flies directly next to the pipelines, then flies back towards Greenland and disappears again from radar NW of the Faroe Islands at about 9:05am local time.


(((American Neo-cons))) are provoking WWIII.
 

karn

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For years we have heard of the chinese "nuclear" option of dumping its massive dollar assets to crash the US economy.
It's happening folks ... but not for the above mentioned reason..
 

Trial By Fire

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For years we have heard of the chinese "nuclear" option of dumping its massive dollar assets to crash the US economy.
It's happening folks ... but not for the above mentioned reason..
The US dollar is losing its value because the US government is now printing it in a way that's unsustainable, after a series of big crises.

The fundamental problem is there is no real alternative yet. Russia and China manipulate their currencies as much if not more. And the euro has tons of problems as well (the eurozone is unsound as an economic area, and the fundamental problems of the Greek debt crisis have never really been addressed, they just kicked the ball further).

So central banks, investment funds, etc. cannot really dump the US dollar, but they can move into other asset classes (to a certain extent), diversify a bit more they currency holdings, etc.

The only redeeming quality of the US dollar is that every thing else is worse. If one day a serious contender appears, the US dollar is as good as gone, it won't survive side-by-side like the Swiss franc or something, people will just massively dump it.
 

karn

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The US dollar is losing its value because the US government is now printing it in a way that's unsustainable, after a series of big crises.

The fundamental problem is there is no real alternative yet. Russia and China manipulate their currencies as much if not more. And the euro has tons of problems as well (the eurozone is unsound as an economic area, and the fundamental problems of the Greek debt crisis have never really been addressed, they just kicked the ball further).

So central banks, investment funds, etc. cannot really dump the US dollar, but they can move into other asset classes (to a certain extent), diversify a bit more they currency holdings, etc.

The only redeeming quality of the US dollar is that every thing else is worse. If one day a serious contender appears, the US dollar is as good as gone, it won't survive side-by-side like the Swiss franc or something, people will just massively dump it.
Yes the US dollar historically has been losing it's value. But right now it's gaining right ? So america can buy things for cheap .. If the China the trade surplus king has to defend it's currency what is the solution other than local currency trades ?
 

Blademaster

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It is a weird situation. US dollar is king in the world but almost every other country is try to keep their currency as cheap as possible without tipping the scales over in order to boost up their exports. It is a balancing act.
 

Trial By Fire

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Yes the US dollar historically has been losing it's value. But right now it's gaining right ? So america can buy things for cheap .. If the China the trade surplus king has to defend it's currency what is the solution other than local currency trades ?
That is indeed what they do already. Some nations have huge stores of US treasury like Japan. But outside of economically unstable nations, everyone trades in one of the trading partner's local currencies. Even those nations without a stable currency often trade in the currency of the biggest partner, like Turkey with the Euro while most former UK Caribbean nations use the Pound.
 

Trial By Fire

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The Fed uses the “core PCE” inflation index, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as yardstick for its inflation target. This “core PCE” index – the overall PCE inflation index minus the volatile food and energy components – is therefore crucial in the current rate-hike scenario, amid red-hot inflation, when everyone wants to know when inflation is finally going to cry uncle.

Some folks thought that happened in July, when the month-to-month “core PCE” inflation slowed to “0%” (rounded down).

Turns out this much-ballyhooed month-to-month “core PCE” reading in July of “0%” was just a one-off event. In August, according to the BEA today, the core-PCE inflation index jumped by 0.6%, same as the multi-decade records in June 2022 and in April 2021 (all rounded to 0.6%). As Powell had said during the FOMC press conference: Underlying inflation is just not slowing down.

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This “core PCE” is the lowest lowball inflation index the Great Satan's government provides. But it is crucial in figuring out where the Fed’s monetary policy might go, and how far the Fed might go with its rate hikes, and when it might pause.

Compared to a year ago, the “core PCE” price index rose 4.9% in August, up from 4.7% in July.

This year-over-year measure is what the Fed uses for its 2% inflation target. But given the huge volatility in inflation last year, Powell said that they would be looking at month-to-month developments to get a feel of where inflation might be headed. They’re looking for “compelling” evidence that inflation is headed back to the 2% target.

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Since about April 2021, I thought that the Fed would need to bring its short-term policy rates to 4%, combined with sufficient QT, to bring inflation under control, and then pause to watch it take effect. This would have been enough to tamp down on what was then already soaring but still much less inflation. Now it looks like the Fed will take those rates above 4% by yearend, and higher still next year.

In terms of overall inflation, “core PCE” doesn’t mean much because it is geared toward measuring some underlying inflation beyond the most volatile items that end up dogging consumers the most. But it is very important in terms of understanding what the Fed is looking at when it decides where to go with its rate hikes.
 

Trial By Fire

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This is starting to look like 2007-2008.

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In Europe, September inflation rose to 10% on the dot, up from 9.1% in August and that was 3 tenths more than expected.

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The core rate accelerated to a 4.8% increase from 4.3% last month and that was one tenth more than forecasted. Expect another 75 bps interest rate increase at the next meeting of the ECB. Mario Draghi really left them with a pile of shit with his negative rate policy. The 5 yr 5 yr inflation forward though is little changed in response to the inflation upside. Also, German breakevens fell too for a 6th straight day.

However, in this extraordinary week of turmoil in global bond markets, gold and silver rallied. In European trade this morning, gold was at $1672, up $28 from last Friday’s close. And silver at $19.16 is up 31 cents.

1664625486443.png


The big news was the collapse of the UK gilt market’s long maturities, which required the Bank of England to intervene, buying £65bn in long gilts on Wednesday. The situation arose out of pension funds leveraging their gilt portfolios through interest rate swaps and repurchase agreements up to seven times in an attempt to match their actuarial liabilities through liability driven investing (LDI). With over £1 trillion outstanding, a doom-loop of selling to meet margin calls was an emerging crisis which had to be stopped.

It has been a wake-up call for investors who were not even aware of LDIs, let alone the Lehman moment they brought about. LDIs are also common in the EU and the US so the problem is unlikely to be confined to London.

A pause for thought has stopped the headlong rush out of all currencies into the dollar, reflected in the chart of the dollar’s TWI:

1664625538606.png


From a peak of 114.78 on Wednesday, the TWI has backed off to 111.61 this morning. Obviously, it is too early to say the dollar has peaked but bearing in mind the weight of speculative money that’s long dollars and short everything else, the chances of a significant reversal are high.

Gold and silver have benefited. Both metals are heavily oversold on Comex, with hedge funds (Managed Money) net short over 8,000 silver contracts at the last Commitment of Traders report (20 September) and net short 36,695 gold contracts. Since then, these short positions have probably increased, but we will have a better idea after US markets close.

Comex is finding a remarkable level of contracts being stood for delivery. In this month alone, 37 tonnes of gold have been stood for delivery, indicating that while hedge funds are playing their games and bullion banks are suppressing prices to recover their shorts, a mixture of high-net-worth individuals, long term investors, and perhaps minor central banks are cleaning out the market of physical bullion.

The conditions for a massive bear squeeze, similar to that between March and August 2020, now appears to be in place. Anecdotal evidence is that ordinary people around the world are now worried enough to clear out retailers of coin and small bar stocks.

With the rise in interest rates and bond yields just starting, a crisis has already occurred in UK gilts and pension funds. Consumer price inflation heading everywhere to over 10% and promising to stay there confirms they are still far too low. That means there will be more crises to follow, involving swaps and repos in addition to bank credit contraction.

Increasingly, those wanting to get out of an imploding fiat credit system are turning to real money — which is only physical gold and silver.

Buy precious metals, frens. They are the only safeguard against a rainy day.
 

Trial By Fire

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It's only the beginning of October, but in Czech schools children are already sitting in blankets: there is no heating

Instead of buying gas for heating the school, the administration bought blankets for all students - it's cheaper this way.

Going back to the 90s when children sat in fur coats and warmed frozen fountain pens with their breath.

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1664717232626.png
 

Tiwariji

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The Great Satan about to get violated again.

OPEC+ plans a significant reduction in oil production to support prices — Financial Times

The meeting of the organization is scheduled for October 5.

View attachment 174070
USA going to significantly increase oil and gas production in 2/3 years . And it's already is the largest producer of Oil and gas .
 

Trial By Fire

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USA going to significantly increase oil and gas production in 2/3 years . And it's already is the largest producer of Oil and gas .
If only it was that simple and easy. I have mentioned this before, but once again, oil IS NOT a fungible commodity. Diesel and home heating oil require either medium heavy oil like Russia’s, or heavy sour like Iran’s and Venezuela’s. Shale oil and gas, the major oil commodity produced by The Great Satan, are very light and no substitute. Ditto the gas from Canada’s tar sands is also very light; people are arguing over its bitumen, which in theory could help but that was never intended to be transported to the Great Satan.

Moreover, there is a time lag between drilling and first oil, also because of years of underinvestment, capital discipline, discouraging federal policies toward the oil industry, and supply chain bottlenecks.

For example, even if ConocoPhillips decided to pump more oil today, the first drop of new oil would come within eight to 12 months.

Even if shale production responds to the price signal, it cannot grow by more than 1.4 mbd this year given labor and infrastructure constraints.

Also, a brief history lesson: In the 1970s during the oil crisis and the first real push to alternative sources of energy, natural gas was considered “clean” as compared to coal and oil and even nuclear, and what happened, was, the US electricity grid went from, like, 70 percent coal burning and 20 percent nuclear and 10 percent everything else (hydro, oil, gas, solar) to, today, 40 percent gas-fired plants.

A lot of the coal plants are shut down, and now The Great Satan relies on gas for nearly half of their electricity. Until very recently, as said before gas was considered one of the “good” sources of energy. Now with the removal of immediate supplies from Russia to Europe, there will be a stampede of investment and construction to set up a huge LNG infrastructure from the Great Satan to Europe, and this LNG will OF COURSE compete with their own needs. So, while Europe is facing a long dark winter no matter what, the US citizen is not far behind.

The Great Satan's Energy Administration reports that the source of much of this gas in the US is fracking – that is, the injection of water into old wells to force out remaining gas. These systems, it seems, don’t produce for that long at a high rate, and so, in order to maintain supply, you have to keep fracking new sites, drilling more wells, so as to keep up the volume of supplies. Fracking provides two thirds – 67 percent – of US natural gas.

So, while the higher prices due to European demand will generate money and therefore more drilling, the entire basis of this supply is seemingly built on a kind of pyramid scheme of injecting fluids into old wells.
This suggests, to me anyway, that it will not be at all surprising to discover say by next spring, maybe sooner, that in addition to having to pay three times what they are paying right now for gas, they will start seeing supply problems, serious ones.

During the oil crisis in the 1970s, that natural gas supplies were thin, and they may become thin again if the fracking craze stalls. Not to mention, the life of fracked wells is limited. Also, there are a shortfall of active rigs in the Great Satan right now. Fracked wells lose 40% of their output in the first year so they need to constantly drill. Basically drilling stopped during covid plus and there has been effectively a ban on drilling in federal lands.

There is massive under investment in the space right now to keep up with just domestic demand, mostly because of diminishing returns from fracking in most plays right now (need more wells to get same output).

Their only saving grace I know of (some potential for more discoveries) is for them to give more options for exploration for offshore wells. We know there is probably much more off the Atlantic coast that generally speaking has never been open. However those take ~5 years to get going and have massive investment costs. End of the day the majors are very good at manipulating pricing domestically regardless.
 

Trial By Fire

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There are signs a debt crisis is forming and the economy is headed for a hard landing, Nouriel Roubini says. Roubini predicted a deep recession and a 40% fall in the stock market by the end of the year. He has warned that a wide range of shocks will have dire effects on global economies. There are signs that a debt crisis has already started taking shape, and a hard landing of the economy before the end of the year is now the baseline scenario, according to top economist Nouriel Roubini.

Roubini, who has earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" for his pessimistic views on markets and the economy, has warned of a looming debt and inflationary crisis for about a year. Previously, he predicted it would lead to a Frankenstein-style recession by the end of 2022, mixing the worst aspects of 1970s stagflation and the 2008 financial crisis.

And the signs of that financial meltdown are finally emerging, Roubini said, who referred to a hard landing as the baseline scenario in an op-ed for Project Syndicate on Monday.

"Signs of strain in debt markets are mounting … the crisis is here," Roubini said, referring to recent moves by central bankers to stem market volatility.

NEW YORK – "For a year now, I have argued that the increase in inflation would be persistent, that its causes include not only bad policies but also negative supply shocks, and that central banks’ attempt to fight it would cause a hard economic landing. When the recession comes, I warned, it will be severe and protracted, with widespread financial distress and debt crises.

Notwithstanding their hawkish talk, central bankers, caught in a debt trap, may still wimp out and settle for above-target inflation. Any portfolio of risky equities and less risky fixed-income bonds will lose money on the bonds, owing to higher inflation and inflation expectations.
...
Everyone now recognizes that these persistent negative supply shocks have contributed to inflation, and the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the US Federal Reserve have begun to acknowledge that a soft landing will be exceedingly difficult to pull off. Fed Chair Jerome Powell now speaks of a “softish landing” with at least “some pain.” Meanwhile, a hard-landing scenario is becoming the consensus among market analysts, economists, and investors.

It is much harder to achieve a soft landing under conditions of stagflationary negative supply shocks than it is when the economy is overheating because of excessive demand."

The central banks have misdiagnosed the reason for the currently high inflation rates. They were caused not only by too much stimulus provided by governments and the central banks but to a large part by the lack of supplies which is to the consequence of the pandemic and the 'western' sanctions following the war in Ukraine. By increasing interest rates the central banks fought against the wrong enemy. They made things worse.

"Are we already in a recession? Not yet, but the US did report negative growth in the first half of the year, and most forward-looking indicators of economic activity in advanced economies point to a sharp slowdown that will grow even worse with monetary-policy tightening. A hard landing by year’s end should be regarded as the baseline scenario.

While many other analysts now agree, they seem to think that the coming recession will be short and shallow, whereas I have cautioned against such relative optimism, stressing the risk of a severe and protracted stagflationary debt crisis.

And now, the latest distress in financial markets – including bond and credit markets – has reinforced my view that central banks’ efforts to bring inflation back down to target will cause both an economic and a financial crash.

Moreover, there are early signs that the Great Moderation has given way to the Great Stagflation, which will be characterized by instability and a confluence of slow-motion negative supply shocks. In addition to the disruptions mentioned above, these shocks could include societal aging in many key economies (a problem made worse by immigration restrictions); Sino-American decoupling; a “geopolitical depression” and breakdown of multilateralism; new variants of COVID-19 and new outbreaks, such as monkeypox; the increasingly damaging consequences of climate change; cyberwarfare; and fiscal policies to boost wages and workers’ power.

US and global equities have not yet fully priced in even a mild and short hard landing. Equities will fall by about 30% in a mild recession, and by 40% or more in the severe stagflationary debt crisis that I have predicted for the global economy.

Signs of strain in debt markets are mounting: sovereign spreads and long-term bond rates are rising, and high-yield spreads are increasing sharply; leveraged-loan and collateralized-loan-obligation markets are shutting down; highly indebted firms, shadow banks, households, governments, and countries are entering debt distress.

The crisis is here."

Well bros, there is little one can do to protect oneself from the consequences of this crisis. Try to stay on the safe side. Have as little debt as possible. If you have debt it will likely be much better to have it at a fixed interest rate. Don't bet on the value of any assets you might have.

This storm will be rough and the consequences will be severe.
 

Trial By Fire

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Largest 4-month drop in job openings since the beginning of lockdowns. To be fair, this number is falling from very high levels but the current drop is massive and must be emphasized. Today’s decline is way worse than any other print we saw during the GFC and Tech Bust.

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Also, just a little “Transitory” 43.3% Producer Price Index Inflation in Europe:

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There are not enough words to discuss the energy pain the region is experiencing. Ex energy prices, PPI was still up 14.5% y/o/y. The euro is up for a 2nd day to a two week high vs the dollar.
 

Trial By Fire

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The Fed has no good options left. It’s either tighten and risk systemic collapse, or ease and destroy the currency. Pick your poison.

Last week, U.S. mortgage interest rates rose to their highest levels since July 2007 during the Great Recession.

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan climbed to 6.7 percent by Thursday last week, rising from 6.29 percent the week before, according to the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s (Freddie Mac’s) survey of lenders.

It was the sixth consecutive week of rising rates, which now have more than doubled the level of about 3 percent where they began this year.

Rates have risen with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s key federal funds interest rate, which the central bank has hiked relentlessly since last spring in a so-far vain attempt to control inflation.

Usually, mortgage rates are more closely tied to the yield on the 10-year treasury note, which bounced wildly last week in the wake of the U.K.’s financial crisis.

The bond market’s gyrations account for a wider-than-usual disparity among rates offered by different lenders. Higher rates would deflate the housing market that was artificially pumped up by cheap mortgage rates.

Now buyers can’t afford to pay more as a result of higher mortgage rates and many owners who were planning to sell the home they own to buy another one are hesitating because of far higher rates.

Many potential buyers will continue renting, shut out of the home-buying market by the combination of rising interest rates and stubbornly high home prices.

By the end of August, sales of existing homes had fallen for seven consecutive months.

Applications to refinance existing mortgages have plunged 85 percent, year over year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The cratering market in refinancing will drag mortgage loans in general down by 48 percent compared to last year, the MBA predicted.

The market crashed first for modest-and middle-income households, as fewer were able to afford down payments or qualify for mortgages at higher interest rates.

The figures prove the point: the percentage of homes sold to first-time buyers has been steadily slipping in recent months. Historically, those buyers make up 40 percent of the market; by February of this year, they comprised just 29 percent.

Therefore, the higher interest rates rise, the deeper the housing market will decline.

Burdened by student debt and rising living costs, even more Americans will spend a greater proportion of their lives, or perhaps all of their lives, renting instead of realizing their dream of home ownership.

In the week ended September 30, demand for mortgages to purchase a home plunged by 13%, seasonally adjusted, from the already beaten-down levels in the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. Compared to the same week last year, purchase mortgage applications dropped by 37%. They fell through the lows during the lockdowns and hit the lowest level since October 2015! Purchase mortgage applications are an indication of housing demand over the next few weeks.

The weekly drop was in part caused by Hurricane Ian, and in part by the spike in mortgage rates into the 7% range:

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Applications for mortgages to refinance an existing mortgage plunged by 18% compared to the prior week, seasonally adjusted, and by 86% from a year ago, to the lowest level since January 2000. No homeowners in their right minds are going to refinance an old 3% or 4% mortgage with a new 7% mortgage, except to extract emergency cash, which will cost them dearly, and they might be able to accomplish the same for a lot less with a HELOC. So the HELOC business, which has totally died down since the Financial Crisis, should perk up again.

The mortgage refi business is crucial for the mortgage lenders. The largest mortgage lenders in the US – Rocket Companies, which owns Quicken Loans, United Wholesale Mortgage, which owns United Shore Financial, and LoanDepot, all have cut staff by thousands of people each, and their stocks have crashed. The entire industry is trimming back to survive. Some mortgage lenders already filed for bankruptcy. Others have shut down.

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Since mid-August, when the summer bear-market rally ended, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked by 171 basis points.

The average 15-year mortgage – if you can handle the payment at the current prices – spiked by 52 basis points from the prior week to 5.96% (green line), the highest since October 2008.

But wait: even these much higher-than-last-year mortgage rates are still far below the rate of inflation, with CPI inflation over 8%. But mortgage rates are catching up.

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This chart shows the weekly 10-year Treasury yield (green) and the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate (red). Note how to what extent the mortgage rates have out-spiked the somewhat lethargic 10-year Treasury yield:

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The chart below shows the spread (the difference) between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate.

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