Monitoring US Economy

[FalconSlayers]

 

[Butter Chicken]

Good news for oil prices and inflation?

 

[Two Minutes To Midnight]

Good news for oil prices and inflation?

200,000 a day.
The US uses 20 million per day.
It's literally a drop in the ocean.

In any case, spot prices are scam to justify the gouging, most of the big deliveries are contract prices, and longterm at that.

 

[Two Minutes To Midnight]

Mortgage rates just spiked over 0.5%. Extreme volatility in the debt market.

When the debt market comes undone, the entire debt fueled bubble goes with it, and real money: silver and gold will have a renewed focus.

 

[aragonishere]

The great distortion and reality of US economy.
Excellent video (Sponsored).

Former Goldman Sachs PhD: "Never returning to normal" | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[cannonfodder]

@FalconSlayers @Two Minutes To Midnight @karn

Thanks for pitching in and carrying on with thread updates. I got caught up with some personal stuff and could not post much last couple of weeks.

All non-sensical political stuff to prepare for Sept-Nov election preparations.
https://thehill.com/news/administration/3506444-biden-lays-out-plan-to-fight-inflation/

Comment1: Passing the buck on the FED, but its also executive policy problem.

The first part of his plan was an acknowledgment that the Federal Reserve “has a primary responsibility to control inflation.”

Comment2: Oil prices started increasing much before Russian invasion into Ukraine.
Also passing clean energy tax credit will not do anything to existing gas prices.

The second part involved making goods more affordable for families with a focus on high gas prices. His administration has blamed Russia’s invasion into Ukraine for the high price of gas and Biden touted the release from global oil reserves and called on Congress to pass clean energy tax credits.

Comment3: This may work in collecting more taxes but need lot of executives work and nothing can happen in short term

The third part of the president’s plan involved reducing the federal deficit through “common-sense reforms to the tax code.”

“We should level the international taxation playing field so companies no longer have an incentive to shift jobs and profits overseas

 

[Two Minutes To Midnight]

@FalconSlayers @Two Minutes To Midnight @karn

Thanks for pitching in and carrying on with thread updates. I got caught up with some personal stuff and could not post much last couple of weeks.

All non-sensical political stuff to prepare for Sept-Nov election preparations.
https://thehill.com/news/administration/3506444-biden-lays-out-plan-to-fight-inflation/

Comment1: Passing the buck on the FED, but its also executive policy problem.


Comment2: Oil prices started increasing much before Russian invasion into Ukraine.
Also passing clean energy tax credit will not do anything to existing gas prices.


Comment3: This may work in collecting more taxes but need lot of executives work and nothing can happen in short term

Lol, the FED is responsible for the ruin of America, why would they ever stop inflation?

Why is inflation so high?

1) Trump prints $2.2 trillion to help recover the US economy during kung flu pandemic

2) Biden comes in, and decides to print another $1.9 trillion

3) combined net spend of $4.1 trillion in the span of 2 years while the economy stagnates due to economic lockdowns domestically and abroad

4) economically stabablize people to stay home and remain unemployed — not a good idea during a stagnating economy

5) further decide to stunt the economic recovery by mandating vaccines + force people back to work which leads to ‘great resignation’

6) now you have trillions of dollars of new debt, and an economy/ GDP which is propped up by fed bond buybacks (QE) to keep up with the massive amount of money printing

7) fed realizes that the Biden admin is not stopping their spending habits anytime soon (infrastructure deal, build back better, etc) and bonds are proving to be worthless, so scale back their tapering in March 2022

8) $120 billion monthly into federal/gov bonds disappears overnight

9) raise interest rates to combat the now crazy inflation due to all this money printing

10) too little too late

Ever since the Federal Reserve was established, The Great Satan was bound to collapse sooner or later.

 

[Kumaoni]

Gas prices now $4.53. 50 cent increase in just 12 days lmao. Joe biden is a fucking moron. Has turned this country to shit in just 1.5 years. I fathom to wonder what will happen at the end of his tenure.

For him, A war in Eastern Europe matters more than mass shootings, racial violence, and inflation.

 

[cannonfodder]

May 2022 CPI Data Release:

Consumer Price Index Summary - 2022 M05 Results (bls.gov)

Commentary: Everyone was expecting the CPI inflation rate to come down from the last month of 8.1 percent. It is getting very ugly at this point as it increased instead of dipping further. FED Will have to siphon more aggressively liquidity to control the inflation rate at this point. Inflation looks red hot overall in all pricing categories and not limited to particular sector - Food/Energy/Housing everything is hit. Energy is real bad.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - MAY 2022

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.0 percent in May on a
seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.6 percent before
seasonal adjustment.

The increase was broad-based, with the indexes for shelter, gasoline, and food being the largest
contributors. After declining in April, the energy index rose 3.9 percent over the month with the
gasoline index rising 4.1 percent and the other major component indexes also increasing. The food
index rose 1.2 percent in May as the food at home index increased 1.4 percent.

 

[cannonfodder]

Gas prices now $4.53. 50 cent increase in just 12 days lmao. Joe biden is a fucking moron. Has turned this country to shit in just 1.5 years. I fathom to wonder what will happen at the end of his tenure.

For him, A war in Eastern Europe matters more than mass shootings, racial violence, and inflation.

Bhai 2-3 mahine se $6+ hai CA main. Due to hybrid working its relatively better, otherwise I am paying same as commuting all 5 days wrt to prices. Food inflation/commodity inflation is alag se

 

[Kumaoni]

Bhai 2-3 mahine se $6+ hai CA main. Due to hybrid working its relatively better, otherwise I am paying same as commuting all 5 days wrt to prices. Food inflation/commodity inflation is alag se

I predict $6 by end of July in texas.

 

[Two Minutes To Midnight]

May 2022 CPI Data Release:

Consumer Price Index Summary - 2022 M05 Results (bls.gov)

View attachment 159576


Commentary: Everyone was expecting the CPI inflation rate to come down from the last month of 8.1 percent. It is getting very ugly at this point as it increased instead of dipping further. FED Will have to siphon more aggressively liquidity to control the inflation rate at this point. Inflation looks red hot overall in all pricing categories and not limited to particular sector - Food/Energy/Housing everything is hit. Energy is real bad.





View attachment 159577

First off, the real inflation is probably way higher than 8.6% because CPI is a fraudulent system that uses fuzzy math and questionable methodology for a while. They changed the way it is calculated around 10-12 years back, so there's that.

This is the worst hyperinflation in history, not a 40 year high, that's just a mind control technique to make noobs think, "Oh at some point of time, things were worse than now!"

Having clarified that:

CPI-W, which tracks inflation for “all urban wage earners & clerical workers,” and whose third-quarter average is used to adjust the COLAs for Social Security in the following year, spiked by 9.3% in May.

In the basket of goods and services that is used for CPI, there are always some items that decline or remain stable, and other items that move higher, and they all have different weights in the CPI, with housing costs accounting for about one-third of CPI, and some items may go down one month, but others may surge, and the whole thing gets compared to levels a year ago, which throws the “base effect” into the mix, and so the year-over-year CPI rates are never a straight line, but move up and down and offer many instances of false hopes.

But in this inflation cycle, we had a nearly straight line higher, interrupted only by two events of false hopes: this April and the summer of 2021.

For people who spend all their money on necessities – such as rent, food, gasoline, utilities, and health insurance – inflation is a lot worse than CPI, because this basket of goods and services tracks more closely the spending by the big spenders.

The CPI tracks the loss of the purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar, and thereby the purchasing power of labor. In May, the purchasing power of $100 in January 2000 dropped to $57.80, and this is why this raging inflation has put Americans in a very sour mood.

The CPI for services spiked by 0.8% from the prior month (close to 10% annual rate!), and by 5.7% from a year ago, the worst since 1990. And this is just relentless.

Services include housing costs, which we’ll get to in detail because that’s its own disaster in the making. And it includes other items, most prominently these (year-to-year % change):

Health insurance: +13.8%
Airline fares, summer special: +37.8%
Lodging in hotels and motels, summer special: +22.2%
Delivery services: +16.4%
Laundry and dry-cleaning services: +10.1%
Car and truck rental spiked month-to-month by 1.7%, but year-over-year was down from the crazy spike last year: -0.4%

The CPI for “shelter” accounts for 32.4% of total CPI and is the largest component. It’s designed to reflect housing costs as a service (not as an asset to be purchased). The largest components within this basket are “Rent of primary residence” (7.3% of total CPI) and “Owner’s equivalent rent of residence” (23.8% of total CPI).

“Rent of primary residence” jumped by 0.6% for the month and by 5.2% year-over-year (red in the chart below). It measures what a very large panel of tenants reported as the change in their actual rent payments over time, including in rent-controlled apartments.

“Owner’s equivalent rent of residences” jumped by 0.6% for the month and by 5.1% year-over-year (green line). It measures the costs of homeownership as a service, based on what a very large panel of homeowners report that their home would rent for.

Both measures are still below the overall CPI and therefor are still holding down CPI, but each month, they’re holding it down less than in the prior month, and they will come into full bloom later this year.

CPI rent measures track rent increases that are actually experienced by tenants that have been renting these apartments and houses for a while.

“Asking rents” track advertised rents of vacant apartments and houses listed for rent. They’re a measure of what landlords want for their apartments and houses that they have listed for rent. They do not reflect actual rents paid by tenants. But they show where the market is.

The Zillow Rent Index has shot up, starting in the summer of 2021 as it was coming out of the Pandemic trough. On a year-over-year basis, it jumped 16.4% in May. The year-over-year increase is down slightly from prior months. But on a month-to-month basis, the index jumped 1.0% in April, the latest data available, up from the 0.8% increase in March.

But it takes a while for asking rents to become actual rents that tenants are paying, and it takes a while longer for these higher rents to get picked up by the CPI panel of tenants when their lease expires and when they get actual rent increases.

You can see this lag in the chart below. The “rent of primary residence” (purple) and the “owner’s equivalent rent” (green) are in the process of catching up with the Zillow Rent Index (red line), and will continue to rise, even if the asking rents, tracked by Zillow, back off over the next 12 months. In other words, the CPI housing components that account for nearly one-third of CPI will fuel CPI inflation well into 2023.

The cost of buying a house spiked by 20.6% year-over-year in the January through March period, according to the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index (purple line below).

But the CPI doesn’t measure the cost of purchasing a house as an asset; it attempts to measure the cost of the service that a home provides – shelter – via its “owner’s equivalent or rent” (red). Both indices are set to 100 for January 2000.

The CPI for nondurable goods is dominated by food, gasoline, utilities, and household supplies. After having risen only 0.3% month-to-month in April for another moment of false hopes, it spiked by 2.1% in May from April, and by 14.3% year-over-year, the worst spike since April 1980.

“Food at home” CPI spiked by 1.2% for the month and by 10.1% year-over-year. In some categories, such as beef, price increases, while still red hot, backed off a tad. In other categories, such as poultry and fish, price increases worsened.

Major categories, and % change from year ago:

Cereals and cereal products: 12.8%
Beef and veal: 10.2%
Pork: 13.3%
Poultry: 16.6%
Fish and seafood: 12.2%
Eggs: 32.2%
Dairy and related products: 11.8%
Fresh fruits: 8.5%
Fresh vegetables: 6.4%
Coffee: 15.3%
Fats and oils: 16.9%
Baby food: 12.9%

“Food away from home” CPI – any food eaten outside the home, such as food from vending machines, cafeterias, sandwich shops, and restaurants – jumped by 0.7% for the month and by 7.4% year-over-year, the most since November 1981.

The Energy CPI, after falling in April from March for that beautiful moment of false hope, re-spiked in May on the spike gasoline prices, and on the spike in natural gas prices (the Energy CPI accounts for 8.3% of overall CPI):

Total Energy CPI: +3.9% for the month, +34.6% year-over-year
Gasoline: +4.1% for the month, +48.7% year-over-year.
Utility natural gas to the home: +8.0% for the month, +30.2% year-over-year.
Electricity service: +1.3% for the month, +12.0% year-over-year.

CPI for durable goods is a mixed bag. It includes new vehicles, used vehicles, consumer electronics, furniture, appliances, etc. Month-to-month, CPI for durable goods ticked up 0.1% in May, after having been roughly flat in April, and having declined in March.

Year-over-year, durable goods spiked by 11.4%, but this was way down from the 18.7% spike in February.

The false-hope peak inflation. The month-to-month dip in durable goods CPI in March and the flat spot in April (along with the drop in gasoline prices in April) had given rise to the false-hope proclamations that inflation had “peaked.” What we can say is that inflation in durable goods may have peaked from the crazy spikes we saw last year and early this year, and that CPI inflation has moved from durable goods into services, and that it continues to rage in nondurable goods.

Consumer electronics CPI: This is a category where products have gotten immeasurably better and more powerful over the years. Think of your smartphone: it would have run circles around a huge super computer that cost many millions of dollars in the 1980s. And given the vast increases in power, utility, features, etc., the amount of money you pay for what you get has fallen year after year.

And it did in May too. The CPI for “information technology commodities” fell by 7.1% year-over-year, and the CPI for “video and audio products” fell by 5.2%.

The used vehicle CPI, after having declined on a month-to-month basis for three months in a row, rose again in May, as I suspected it would, based on price increases in the used vehicle market. Month-to-month, the index rose 1.8%, and though a huge increase, it was lower than the crazy increases last year. Year-over-year, the CPI spiked by “only” 16.1%, which is still crazy, but less than half the year-over-year spikes in November through March.

This chart shows the index value (not the year-over-year % change of the index value). Clearly, the used vehicle CPI peaked at totally crazy levels, and some, but only “some,” of this crazy spike will unwind in 2022.

The new vehicle CPI spiked 1.0% for the month and by 12.6% year-over-year, the second-worst spike ever, after April, in the monthly data going back to the 1950s, amid widespread new vehicle shortages and ruthless “above-sticker” prices. But some models are now starting to see rising inventories amid the ongoing plunge in sales, which might eventually tamp down on this above-sticker pricing BS. Much higher interest rates would help bring demand down further, relieving some of the price pressures.

This chart shows the index value (not the year-over-year % change of the index value).

 

[cannonfodder]

First off, the real inflation is probably way higher than 8.6% because CPI is a fraudulent system that uses fuzzy math and questionable methodology for a while. They changed the way it is calculated around 10-12 years back, so there's that.

This is the worst hyperinflation in history, not a 40 year high, that's just a mind control technique to make noobs think, "Oh at some point of time, things were worse than now!"

Having clarified that:

View attachment 159618

CPI-W, which tracks inflation for “all urban wage earners & clerical workers,” and whose third-quarter average is used to adjust the COLAs for Social Security in the following year, spiked by 9.3% in May.

In the basket of goods and services that is used for CPI, there are always some items that decline or remain stable, and other items that move higher, and they all have different weights in the CPI, with housing costs accounting for about one-third of CPI, and some items may go down one month, but others may surge, and the whole thing gets compared to levels a year ago, which throws the “base effect” into the mix, and so the year-over-year CPI rates are never a straight line, but move up and down and offer many instances of false hopes.

But in this inflation cycle, we had a nearly straight line higher, interrupted only by two events of false hopes: this April and the summer of 2021.

For people who spend all their money on necessities – such as rent, food, gasoline, utilities, and health insurance – inflation is a lot worse than CPI, because this basket of goods and services tracks more closely the spending by the big spenders.

The CPI tracks the loss of the purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar, and thereby the purchasing power of labor. In May, the purchasing power of $100 in January 2000 dropped to $57.80, and this is why this raging inflation has put Americans in a very sour mood.

View attachment 159619

The CPI for services spiked by 0.8% from the prior month (close to 10% annual rate!), and by 5.7% from a year ago, the worst since 1990. And this is just relentless.

View attachment 159620

Services include housing costs, which we’ll get to in detail because that’s its own disaster in the making. And it includes other items, most prominently these (year-to-year % change):

Health insurance: +13.8%
Airline fares, summer special: +37.8%
Lodging in hotels and motels, summer special: +22.2%
Delivery services: +16.4%
Laundry and dry-cleaning services: +10.1%
Car and truck rental spiked month-to-month by 1.7%, but year-over-year was down from the crazy spike last year: -0.4%

The CPI for “shelter” accounts for 32.4% of total CPI and is the largest component. It’s designed to reflect housing costs as a service (not as an asset to be purchased). The largest components within this basket are “Rent of primary residence” (7.3% of total CPI) and “Owner’s equivalent rent of residence” (23.8% of total CPI).

“Rent of primary residence” jumped by 0.6% for the month and by 5.2% year-over-year (red in the chart below). It measures what a very large panel of tenants reported as the change in their actual rent payments over time, including in rent-controlled apartments.

“Owner’s equivalent rent of residences” jumped by 0.6% for the month and by 5.1% year-over-year (green line). It measures the costs of homeownership as a service, based on what a very large panel of homeowners report that their home would rent for.

Both measures are still below the overall CPI and therefor are still holding down CPI, but each month, they’re holding it down less than in the prior month, and they will come into full bloom later this year.

View attachment 159621

CPI rent measures track rent increases that are actually experienced by tenants that have been renting these apartments and houses for a while.

“Asking rents” track advertised rents of vacant apartments and houses listed for rent. They’re a measure of what landlords want for their apartments and houses that they have listed for rent. They do not reflect actual rents paid by tenants. But they show where the market is.

The Zillow Rent Index has shot up, starting in the summer of 2021 as it was coming out of the Pandemic trough. On a year-over-year basis, it jumped 16.4% in May. The year-over-year increase is down slightly from prior months. But on a month-to-month basis, the index jumped 1.0% in April, the latest data available, up from the 0.8% increase in March.

But it takes a while for asking rents to become actual rents that tenants are paying, and it takes a while longer for these higher rents to get picked up by the CPI panel of tenants when their lease expires and when they get actual rent increases.

You can see this lag in the chart below. The “rent of primary residence” (purple) and the “owner’s equivalent rent” (green) are in the process of catching up with the Zillow Rent Index (red line), and will continue to rise, even if the asking rents, tracked by Zillow, back off over the next 12 months. In other words, the CPI housing components that account for nearly one-third of CPI will fuel CPI inflation well into 2023.

View attachment 159622

The cost of buying a house spiked by 20.6% year-over-year in the January through March period, according to the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index (purple line below).

But the CPI doesn’t measure the cost of purchasing a house as an asset; it attempts to measure the cost of the service that a home provides – shelter – via its “owner’s equivalent or rent” (red). Both indices are set to 100 for January 2000.

View attachment 159623

The CPI for nondurable goods is dominated by food, gasoline, utilities, and household supplies. After having risen only 0.3% month-to-month in April for another moment of false hopes, it spiked by 2.1% in May from April, and by 14.3% year-over-year, the worst spike since April 1980.

View attachment 159624

“Food at home” CPI spiked by 1.2% for the month and by 10.1% year-over-year. In some categories, such as beef, price increases, while still red hot, backed off a tad. In other categories, such as poultry and fish, price increases worsened.

Major categories, and % change from year ago:

Cereals and cereal products: 12.8%
Beef and veal: 10.2%
Pork: 13.3%
Poultry: 16.6%
Fish and seafood: 12.2%
Eggs: 32.2%
Dairy and related products: 11.8%
Fresh fruits: 8.5%
Fresh vegetables: 6.4%
Coffee: 15.3%
Fats and oils: 16.9%
Baby food: 12.9%

“Food away from home” CPI – any food eaten outside the home, such as food from vending machines, cafeterias, sandwich shops, and restaurants – jumped by 0.7% for the month and by 7.4% year-over-year, the most since November 1981.

The Energy CPI, after falling in April from March for that beautiful moment of false hope, re-spiked in May on the spike gasoline prices, and on the spike in natural gas prices (the Energy CPI accounts for 8.3% of overall CPI):

Total Energy CPI: +3.9% for the month, +34.6% year-over-year
Gasoline: +4.1% for the month, +48.7% year-over-year.
Utility natural gas to the home: +8.0% for the month, +30.2% year-over-year.
Electricity service: +1.3% for the month, +12.0% year-over-year.

CPI for durable goods is a mixed bag. It includes new vehicles, used vehicles, consumer electronics, furniture, appliances, etc. Month-to-month, CPI for durable goods ticked up 0.1% in May, after having been roughly flat in April, and having declined in March.

Year-over-year, durable goods spiked by 11.4%, but this was way down from the 18.7% spike in February.

View attachment 159625

The false-hope peak inflation. The month-to-month dip in durable goods CPI in March and the flat spot in April (along with the drop in gasoline prices in April) had given rise to the false-hope proclamations that inflation had “peaked.” What we can say is that inflation in durable goods may have peaked from the crazy spikes we saw last year and early this year, and that CPI inflation has moved from durable goods into services, and that it continues to rage in nondurable goods.

Consumer electronics CPI: This is a category where products have gotten immeasurably better and more powerful over the years. Think of your smartphone: it would have run circles around a huge super computer that cost many millions of dollars in the 1980s. And given the vast increases in power, utility, features, etc., the amount of money you pay for what you get has fallen year after year.

And it did in May too. The CPI for “information technology commodities” fell by 7.1% year-over-year, and the CPI for “video and audio products” fell by 5.2%.

The used vehicle CPI, after having declined on a month-to-month basis for three months in a row, rose again in May, as I suspected it would, based on price increases in the used vehicle market. Month-to-month, the index rose 1.8%, and though a huge increase, it was lower than the crazy increases last year. Year-over-year, the CPI spiked by “only” 16.1%, which is still crazy, but less than half the year-over-year spikes in November through March.

This chart shows the index value (not the year-over-year % change of the index value). Clearly, the used vehicle CPI peaked at totally crazy levels, and some, but only “some,” of this crazy spike will unwind in 2022.

View attachment 159626

The new vehicle CPI spiked 1.0% for the month and by 12.6% year-over-year, the second-worst spike ever, after April, in the monthly data going back to the 1950s, amid widespread new vehicle shortages and ruthless “above-sticker” prices. But some models are now starting to see rising inventories amid the ongoing plunge in sales, which might eventually tamp down on this above-sticker pricing BS. Much higher interest rates would help bring demand down further, relieving some of the price pressures.

This chart shows the index value (not the year-over-year % change of the index value).

View attachment 159628

Its well understood on ground that real inflation is way to higher than FED # > 10-12% (rental increases will lag even more as price will be priced slowly over months), anyone on the ground for food/necessities will know the pinch. But for comparison sake its easier to track FED metric itself month to month to understand if overall inflation is increasing/calming down. Analyst were expecting the "FED CPI" inflation data to be lower than last month - big miss.

More or less rest of world markets will follow US wallstreet up/down trend due to size. Only mai baap OPEC can provide temporary relief in form of energy prices if production is increased. Other than that CCP halting lockdown may give some relief. No good catalyst in the short term. Compromise with Putin is big political no-no here.

 

[Two Minutes To Midnight]

Well, would you look at that?

The mortgage-backed security market shat itself today, going no bid. New mortgage rates are way up today, but still well below the rate of inflation. Grab onto something solid, and preferably gold colored.

Some are saying it's bad enough that it could bankrupt the federal reserve because they hold so many MBB on their books, legacy from when they saved the system after 2008. They would have to turn QE back on like never before to avoid that.

This is supposedly from a Federal Reserve insider. Take it with a grain of salt:

"Looks like the board had unironically believed that inflation was peaking, and now panic is settling in. Even some categories like used cars, which experienced price decline in May, jumped up in June. This pretty much confirms a 75, maybe even 100 basis point hike the after the meeting.

Looking increasingly unlikely that this mess will be sorted without forcing a full blown market crash, and everyone all the way up to JPOW is nervous for their jobs.

I give it 80% odds we'll be going full Volcker by September.

Some of you are okay, don't go to the markets before the next FOMC."

Except your boss is no Volcker, Biden is no Reagan, and the 80s was a lot, lot whiter.

The minorities and free shit South American immigrant army is just not going to put up with payday loans at 6 gorillion percent.

 

[aragonishere]

I agree there is enough data coming in . Move to Big boat if there is any .

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Well, would you look at that?

The mortgage-backed security market shat itself today, going no bid. New mortgage rates are way up today, but still well below the rate of inflation. Grab onto something solid, and preferably gold colored.

Some are saying it's bad enough that it could bankrupt the federal reserve because they hold so many MBB on their books, legacy from when they saved the system after 2008. They would have to turn QE back on like never before to avoid that.

This is supposedly from a Federal Reserve insider. Take it with a grain of salt:

"Looks like the board had unironically believed that inflation was peaking, and now panic is settling in. Even some categories like used cars, which experienced price decline in May, jumped up in June. This pretty much confirms a 75, maybe even 100 basis point hike the after the meeting.

Looking increasingly unlikely that this mess will be sorted without forcing a full blown market crash, and everyone all the way up to JPOW is nervous for their jobs.

I give it 80% odds we'll be going full Volcker by September.

Some of you are okay, don't go to the markets before the next FOMC."

Except your boss is no Volcker, Biden is no Reagan, and the 80s was a lot, lot whiter.

The minorities and free shit South American immigrant army is just not going to put up with payday loans at 6 gorillion percent.

 

[SKC]

Bhai 2-3 mahine se $6+ hai CA main. Due to hybrid working its relatively better, otherwise I am paying same as commuting all 5 days wrt to prices. Food inflation/commodity inflation is alag se

The costliest Gas is in LA with price over $7.3/gallon.

 

[karn]

Trump has way too many I told you so's.

 

[Two Minutes To Midnight]

US 10-year yield surges to 3.35%, highest since 2011 - indicating a potential debt market meltdown.

 

[Butter Chicken]

 

[WarmongerLSK]

is 0.3% that high?