Monitoring US Economy

cannonfodder

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Thread to monitor US economy post Covid-19 ramifications.

US fed has printed 20% of total currency to tackle pandemic and the printer is still ON. I don't believe in doom scenario though as US companies are posting record results thanks to all currency injections.

//3.5Trillion for green infra proposal o_O
 
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fire starter

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Thread to monitor US economy post Covid-19 ramifications.

US fed has printed 20% of total currency to tackle pandemic and the printer is still ON. I don't believe in doom scenario though as US companies are posting record results thanks to all currency injections.

//3.5Trillion for green infra proposal o_O
And they are transferring that inflation to other countries.
 

FalconSlayers

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Nothing is gonna happen, sub chunga si.
 

cannonfodder

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Two diverse set of opinions:
1. Optimists: Current inflation data is transient i.e. most of them are supply demand constraints. Things will come back as production line comes back, people get back to working and so on. The US economy will be deflationary in long term. Will post CPI data discussion etc.
2. Dooms day: Asset/Real Estate inflation at very high level. FED has pumped up the markets and creating an bubble. It may led to devaluation of $ and we may see the ripple effects sooner or later.

I will post informational videos from both point of views on inflation data etc.
 

cannonfodder

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Big shills for Dooms Day: Neil McCoy



Thesis is same: Fed piling up debt and assets having no basis in evaluation like unemployment rate, affordability.

Peter Schiff: Dooms day


Mostly same thesis + buy hard assets like Gold/Silver kind of guy. He is not on favor of govt spending and printing. Note that its not financial advice - just putting out different views.

World Debt: India is not that down far just 6th in position
1626481461337.png
 

SKC

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Big shills for Dooms Day: Neil McCoy



Thesis is same: Fed piling up debt and assets having no basis in evaluation like unemployment rate, affordability.

Peter Schiff: Dooms day


Mostly same thesis + buy hard assets like Gold/Silver kind of guy. He is not on favor of govt spending and printing. Note that its not financial advice - just putting out different views.

World Debt: India is not that down far just 6th in position
View attachment 100205
All major economies will always have National Debt. Having debt does not directly means Gloom and Doom.
 

cannonfodder

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All major economies will always have National Debt. Having debt does not directly means Gloom and Doom.
It not about just debt creation. It is also excessive printing that may devalue the $$ in the long run and led to rise in inflation.

1626744297552.png


I think the inflation is transient and rate should go higher till Sept-Nov and start going down thereafter (non-dotted red line).
But If it goes on increasing there will be hyper inflation (dotted red line) and US stock market will most likely suffer as revenues may take hit with rising prices. It will be spiral thereafter as one thing leds to another.

Big Unknown: How bad the delta variant/others affects world economies. Currently affecting only non-vaccinated population primarily (like 90%+) in US.
 
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cannonfodder

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^^ Inflation is still going strong (following dashed line highlighted below):

1. Car/Silicon shortage still keeping prices high
2. Supply chain are still disrupted and keeping retail prices high.

Between:
1. US stock is still keep improving and keeps higher. Companies still recording good profit numbers
2. Real Estate is holding up and going up.

Some of it still Covid related supply chains as it keep disrupting Asian production (that US is very reliant on).

Major events in coming months:
1. US FED tapering may happen in Nov/Dec. That is FED will decrease bond purchase program and reduce liquidity, interest rate will be higher.
2. Debt ceiling to be increased by US Govt by December one way or the other this will happen.
3. Infrastructure Bill may pass although an reduced version like 1.5 or 1.9 T.
 
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