Quickgun Murugan
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MMRCA: A Quagmire in the waiting for India?
Its all or nothing game for the five countries bidding in the multi-billion dollar MMRCA game. As the world watches India's attempt to choose the best among best of these fighters, it becomes all the more important for these bidders to win this contract to get bragging rights and leverage for future exports.
Though the winning fighter would solve India's long lasting demand for replacement of its aging old fleet, this thread is to discuss the possible repercussions of how the loosing countries may react.
If
1. Russia looses:
Everyone knows, more than 80% of India's defence inventory is Russia's and disappointing it may have its consequences. The most immediate consequence would be the approval of export of AL-31 F engine for export of J-10 B fighters to Pakistan. We all know, the RD-93 export saga and I feel, if Russia looses, this export is a given as WS-10 A doesn't seem to have solved its inherent problems as of now.
2. US looses:
US can start raising the "Kashmir issue" and pressure India to resolve it putting a war on terror nexus upon disappointment in MMRCA tender. We all know how desperate they are to get the contract with Hilary Clinton visit and defence deal talks, blocking Israeli IAI from JAS Gripen etc. US consequence would affect more politically than militarily.
3. Sweden looses:
This is probably more apparent. SAAB already has close ties with Pakistan with 6 Erieye AWACS deal. Upon a MMRCA rejection, it can offer Gripen's AESA radars for Pakistan's JF-17 making it more potent.
4. French looses:
French would also have the same effect as Sweds. PAF is already having their hopes high on integrating Rafale's AESA and avionics on J-10B and JF-17. Disappointed French would definitely make that possible.
5. European Union:
Typically due to their pricey products, they do not pose any serious threats as of now, but Germany may be influenced into making its decision in favor of selling U-214 subs to Pakistan.
So the bottom line is, what ever is the decision, we will end up pissing of 4 other countries at the cost of being dear to 1, giving Pakistan an opportunity to pick up the pieces of the fallen deals.
Elders say, "Choice is an Illusion", for Indian MMRCA "Choice is a quagmire"
Your views appreciated. Please feel free to add any other repercussions you feel might happen also express your contradictions.
Its all or nothing game for the five countries bidding in the multi-billion dollar MMRCA game. As the world watches India's attempt to choose the best among best of these fighters, it becomes all the more important for these bidders to win this contract to get bragging rights and leverage for future exports.
Though the winning fighter would solve India's long lasting demand for replacement of its aging old fleet, this thread is to discuss the possible repercussions of how the loosing countries may react.
If
1. Russia looses:
Everyone knows, more than 80% of India's defence inventory is Russia's and disappointing it may have its consequences. The most immediate consequence would be the approval of export of AL-31 F engine for export of J-10 B fighters to Pakistan. We all know, the RD-93 export saga and I feel, if Russia looses, this export is a given as WS-10 A doesn't seem to have solved its inherent problems as of now.
2. US looses:
US can start raising the "Kashmir issue" and pressure India to resolve it putting a war on terror nexus upon disappointment in MMRCA tender. We all know how desperate they are to get the contract with Hilary Clinton visit and defence deal talks, blocking Israeli IAI from JAS Gripen etc. US consequence would affect more politically than militarily.
3. Sweden looses:
This is probably more apparent. SAAB already has close ties with Pakistan with 6 Erieye AWACS deal. Upon a MMRCA rejection, it can offer Gripen's AESA radars for Pakistan's JF-17 making it more potent.
4. French looses:
French would also have the same effect as Sweds. PAF is already having their hopes high on integrating Rafale's AESA and avionics on J-10B and JF-17. Disappointed French would definitely make that possible.
5. European Union:
Typically due to their pricey products, they do not pose any serious threats as of now, but Germany may be influenced into making its decision in favor of selling U-214 subs to Pakistan.
So the bottom line is, what ever is the decision, we will end up pissing of 4 other countries at the cost of being dear to 1, giving Pakistan an opportunity to pick up the pieces of the fallen deals.
Elders say, "Choice is an Illusion", for Indian MMRCA "Choice is a quagmire"
Your views appreciated. Please feel free to add any other repercussions you feel might happen also express your contradictions.