Making India an Upper Middle Income Economy, a High Income Economy in long term

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India Is Launching the Largest Basic Income Experiment in History

"With the rise of global inequality, we want to ensure that we bridge the gap."
Largest Basic Income
The small Indian state of Sikkim is about to launch a basic income experiment that will provide cash payments to each of its 610,000 citizens — a pilot that the Washington Post says is the largest basic income experiment in history.
“In developed countries, the main purpose is to restructure or economize the existing welfare schemes, like unemployment benefits,” University of California at Berkeley economist Pranab Bardhan told the Post of the experiment. “In low- or mid-income countries, like India, the rationale will be to address the minimum economic insecurity of a larger section of the population, not just the poorest, without touching the existing anti-poverty measures.”
Out Front
Tech luminaries including Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have endorsed the idea of basic income, the Post points out, as an idea to transform the economy as more labor becomes automated.
But actual experiments have been rare and limited in scope — making it ironic that the largest to date is scheduled to kick off in India, a far less affluent country than the United States.
Progressive History
It’s important to note that details about Sikkim’s upcoming experiment remain hazy. It’s not clear how much each resident will be paid, and the launch date of 2022 is still years away. But Indian politicians are hopeful.
“It’s a matter of political will ultimately,” said P.D. Rai, a Sikkim’s member of parliament. “With the rise of global inequality, we want to ensure that we bridge the gap.”
 

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View: How India is leading digital revolution with speed and scale
India’s ‘New Economy’ is augmenting jobs rather than replacing them. Ride-sharing industry is one example.
Indian retail brokering, ecom, food delivery and ride-hailing startups are competing as equals with the largest platforms in the world.
India missed the first and second Industrial Revolutions in the 19th and early 20th centuries as it was then fodder for colonial industrialisation. It also missed the third technology-driven one, since it came at a time when India’s economic policies were not conducive to technology. But India has been lucky to be at the forefront of leading into the Fourth Industrial Revolution — a digitally driven one —with speed and scale.
GoI recently gave a policy push to ensure that no Indian remains without a unique identity. Today, 99% of Indian adults have an Aadhaar identity number. The government further interlinked the identity system with bank accounts and mobile numbers, resulting in the JAM (Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-mobile phone) trinity. JAM has become the fundamental digital architecture ushering in holistic financial inclusion.
The Bharat Interface for Money-Unified Payment Interface (BHIMUPI), with over 600 million transactions in January 2019 alone, is the interoperable backbone connecting all banks and consumers, and is being front-ended by many national and international digital platforms.
The open digital innovation by the government has been leveraged by the startup community, making India now the third-largest startup ecosystem in the world. Indian retail brokering, ecommerce, food delivery and ride-hailing startups are competing as equals with the largest platforms in the world. By designing unique and frugal solutions that are being enthusiastically consumed by the local market, India’s innovations and startups are growing with an ambitious approach of serving customers globally.
While every industrial revolution brings with it a speculation about destruction of jobs, what primarily changes with every transformation is the nature of jobs. India’s ‘New Economy’ is augmenting jobs rather than replacing them. The ride-sharing industry is a great example of this.
Personal vehicle ownership continues to rise, along with the usage of shared taxis. This new consumption pattern has led to over 1.5 million jobs being created in the shared cab industry. And these jobs aren’t just limited to Tier-1 or Tier-2 cities, which were earlier the primary beneficiaries of the digital revolution. India’s biggest cab aggregator exists in close to 170 cities and towns across the nation. The New Economy has rather led to the rise of a new kind of employment: the gig economy. This allows the worker flexibility in deciding his or her participation in the labour market by determining his or her own work hours and timings.
Food delivery and ecommerce platforms are prime examples, augmenting the labour market by over one million through direct and indirect value chain creation. Digital aggregation of service providers such as plumbers, cleaners and painters, occupations that earlier largely relied on word of mouth for their revenue, has also allowed for greater employment opportunities with an efficient and transparent pricing structure.
India has leapfrogged into a ‘mobile-first’ country and houses one of the largest mobile manufacturing factories in the world. Indian mobile plants servicing this new-age consumer have increased from two in 2014 to 127 in 2019. Annually, over 225 million mobile phones are domestically produced. This rapidly growing sector has created about 400,000 jobs during the last five years.
India has more smartphones than the entire population of the US. It is one of largest consumers of data in the world, increasing from 0.2 GB a month to 11GB a month in the last few years. This, combined with a phenomenal decrease in the price of data, from Rs 269 per GB to Rs 19 per GB in the same time frame, has allowed for digital consumption by all segments of society, growing beyond the urban rich to the aspirational Indian youth and senior citizens as well.
The digital revolution of India is unique, as it ensures that not only the connected but also those who are yet to get on the internet highway are equally benefited and empowered by the fruits of the New Economy. Over 318,000 Common Service Centres (CSCs) located in various parts of the country provide entitlements to beneficiaries: soil health cards to farmers and Jeevan Pramaan certification for pensioners, in ‘assisted-mode’.
Apart from empowering citizens, CSCs have also allowed for selfemployment and village-level entrepreneurship, creating jobs for over one million in the last five years. Rural India has been both the beneficiary of the rise of the New Economy and the labour force driving its growth.
India is at a watershed moment. Digital has the potential to create a countrywide Pareto improvement, where every citizen gains and no one is left behind. Aspirational India — aided by domestically designed platforms, proactive policymaking and its demographic dividend — is not just participating in, but also leading, the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
 

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Why more countries are welcoming Indian visitors
(Video in the link)
HIGHLIGHTS
  • Indian passport has strengthened over the past five years, jumping 10 ranks from 77 in 2015, to 67 in 2019
  • Industry voices say more and more countries are opening up to Indian tourists
  • Over 50 international tourism boards have set up their offices in India and work closely with tour operators
If you still haven’t zeroed in on the destination you’d like to explore when you head out this summer, remember this: Your Indian passport will grant you visa-free entry into 25 countries, and visa on arrival to 39 more nations across the globe.
The 2019 Passport Index, which ranks passports of 199 countries on the basis of their Visa-Free Scores and their ranking on the UNDP human development index, shows the Indian passport has steadily strengthened over the past five years, jumping 10 ranks from 77 in 2015, to 67 in 2019. It was 68 last year.
This year, while Indian tourists still need visas to enter 134 countries in the world, industry voices say more and more countries are opening up to Indian tourists, cognisant of their ability to spend as well as to return home. “One of the reasons for this improvement is that foreign governments don’t view Indian travellers with suspicion and welcome Indian tourists. They are of the opinion that Indians who come to their country do so for leisure or business and return home,” said Karan Anand, head of relationships, Cox & Kings Ltd.
Over 50 international tourism boards have set up their offices in India and work closely with tour operators and their governments to promote their destination in the Indian market. One of the factors that contributes to this growth, Anand said, is also the ease with which visas are issued. A small East European country like Azerbaijan, for instance, grants tourists visas to Indians in just three hours.
Even as Indians hope for increasing their global mobility, the Indian government has opened its arms to foreign tourists with increased vigour. The tourism ministry has extended e-tourist visa facilities to 166 countries, up from 46 nations in 2014, a decision that follows a series of amendments in India’s e-visa regime, liberalised to make the process more tourist friendly and double foreign tourist arrival figures by 2021.
Industry insiders, therefore, point to the need for greater reciprocity and emphasise the need for the Indian government to open diplomatic channels and push harder to make the Indian passport more noted and accepted.
If a comparison is between between India’s scores with that of Israel, Singapore, South Korea and United Arab Emirates, they say, India lags far behind. Sample this: people holding an Israeli passport have a visa-free score of 146 in comparison to India’s 64. In contrast, a South Korean or Singaporean passport will get its holder entry into 165 nations without a visa, or on a visa-on-arrival, while a UAE passport — the strongest in the World — will get its owner easy access to 168 countries across the globe.
 

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Rising India Summit 2019
‘Rising India’, an incontrovertible truth, is also title of the most important event on the annual calendar for the Network18 group and one of most anticipated thought leadership forums in India. The News18 Rising India Summit is a showcase of India’s unbounded potential as well as a celebration of its significant achievements. Over two days of the summit, people of eminence and exceptional achievements from various walks of life come together in New Delhi to celebrate India’s successes and deliberate the future.
This year, the summit is taking place against the backdrop of the upcoming general elections, necessitating the theme ‘Beyond Politics: Defining National Priorities’.
By framing it as beyond politics, we aim to put the spotlight on issues beyond the proximate and train the discourse on the larger message – that of a Rising India and its inevitability.
Like last year, the Summit will host a galaxy of notables – top policy makers, Union Cabinet Ministers, Chief Ministers, entertainment icons, global visionaries, economists, writers and corporate leaders. Hon’ble Prime Minister of India, Shri Narendra Modi will be the Chief Guest and deliver the Summit Keynote.
 

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Modi's keynotes indicate it to be just a celebration of achievements and new individual 10-15 years goals BJP has set for India, I want and am expecting a bigger picture and goal, a clear national economic & strategic objective.

As you guys could see my concerns from title of thread and speculations in discussions of making India an upper middle income and developed country, I was rummaging through Chinese economic goals.

China has target to become a 'moderately well off' society by 2021 and a fully developed country by 2049. They have for sure nearly achieved one by being an upper middle income country, not like footkar ones like Indonesia or Sri Lanka but a high upper middle income country like Russia and East Europe and for sure their income levels will be at par with west in 30 years for sure if they don't engulf in a severe economic crisis. Even then, they will qualify.

As a nation, India should have well defined goals to achieve instead of just trying to up GDP, power & international relations. Adding up capabilities isn't long term solution.

Economic goal should be well defined with timeline and kind of efforts to be made for well being of people and strategic goals should spin around playing a "meaningful role" in world affairs (which will keep inflating as India grows) and ensuring India's sovereignity.

An ill defined yearn for restoring India's "historic wealth/frontiers/glory" etc. could also serve as an excuse of reintegration of smaller countries in Indian Subcontinent some decades later.
 

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Modi's keynotes indicate it to be just a celebration of achievements and new individual 10-15 years goals BJP has set for India, I want and am expecting a bigger picture and goal, a clear national economic & strategic objective.

As you guys could see my concerns from title of thread and speculations in discussions of making India an upper middle income and developed country, I was rummaging through Chinese economic goals.

China has target to become a 'moderately well off' society by 2021 and a fully developed country by 2049. They have for sure nearly achieved one by being an upper middle income country, not like footkar ones like Indonesia or Sri Lanka but a high upper middle income country like Russia and East Europe and for sure their income levels will be at par with west in 30 years for sure if they don't engulf in a severe economic crisis. Even then, they will qualify.

As a nation, India should have well defined goals to achieve instead of just trying to up GDP, power & international relations. Adding up capabilities isn't long term solution.

Economic goal should be well defined with timeline and kind of efforts to be made for well being of people and strategic goals should spin around playing a "meaningful role" in world affairs (which will keep inflating as India grows) and ensuring India's sovereignity.

An ill defined yearn for restoring India's "historic wealth/frontiers/glory" etc. could also serve as an excuse of reintegration of smaller countries in Indian Subcontinent some decades later.
Totally agree with you BIRATHER.

We should have a set of defined goals for long term,the goals should be drilled and very much well entrenched in the minds of the public through various means in social media or through other media.Like our polio eradication campaign or anti defecation campaign,these are some of the most successful campaigns launched by the gormint and have succeeded in a certain said time frame.

Now about your point of not just adding capabilities but also maintaining our sovereignty and making India more influential,we should bump our research and development spending atleast 2-3x for the gormint secros only and support private initiatives through policies and economical means.Having a solid 8-9% growth is one thing but having the capability to innovate and produce at a scale is another,latter thing can exponentially improve the living conditions of millions in this country alone at a rapid pace.And yes it should carry a time frame with it,like say we should have a goal of having a fully indigenous armed forces in next 15 years or increasing the speed of our trains by a lot in a certain time frame(Chinese did this from 1997-2007) or like having a certain scientific goal or progress in 10 years.Now we may not be able to achieve everything but with a pressure of time and coordination of gormint and private sector can exponentially boost our growth rate.

One thing about economic growth like china is that one has to rely extensively on exports (exports are worth 20% there).We should also focus on improving the purchasing power of Indians by developing financial markets in India and boost productivity by providing education at a larger scale,why do I say so, because we are not spending enough on education,our current allocation sits at 2-2.5% of GDP,while it should be 3-4% of GDP.

But unfortunately no gormint has shown interest this way for the country,allocation for r & d still remains low, education still lags behind, infrastructure spending has picked up but dent has been caused by farm loan waivers.

We don't just need economic growth,we also need to branch out in every dimension.

Militarily, scientifically,financially and culturally.
 

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Why biotechnology can be Indian economy's next success story
In the span of a decade beginning in 2007, the industry has grown exponentially in size from about $2 billion to over $11 billion in terms of revenue.
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It is not acknowledged as often but the biotechnology industry seemed poised to take over the mantle.
Over the last two-to-three decades, the major success story of the Indian economy has been the stellar growth of its IT industry. But as the dividends from the sector reach the eventual inflection point, India needs to build similar competencies in other industries to ensure sustained growth and prosperity.
It is not acknowledged as often but the biotechnology industry seemed poised to take over the mantle. In the span of a decade beginning in 2007, the industry has grown exponentially in size from about $2 billion to over $11 billion in terms of revenue. By 2025, it is targeted to touch $100 billion.
The biotechnology industry, however, has been impacting Indian lives long before it grew so much in size. Back in the mid-1960s, advancements in biotechnology drove the Green Revolution, which enhanced farm yields and made the country self-sufficient in food production.
A similar contribution from the sector was witnessed in the White Revolution when India became a milk-surplus nation and improved the nutrition level of its citizens.
More recently, the meteoric growth of the Indian pharmaceutical industry is a result of process innovation that has given the country a cost advantage in the manufacture of drugs.
Further, the growing energy needs of India's rural areas have been increasingly met by biomass fuel.
These outcomes have been the result of years of concerted efforts by the Indian government to enable the growth of the industry. As early as 1986, Rajiv Gandhi, recognising the potential of biotechnology in the country's development, set up the Department of Biotechnology, making India one of the first countries in the world to have a government department solely dedicated to biotechnology.
Over the years, the Department of Biotechnology has set up 17 Centres of Excellence at higher education institutions across the country and has supported the establishment of eight biotechnology parks across different cities. The biggest contribution of the department has been in setting up of the Biotechnology Industry Research Assistance Council (BIRAC) in 2012, which has successfully supported 316 start-ups in its six years of existence.
Due to these efforts, the Indian biotechnology industry has flourished over the years. As of 2016, India had over a thousand biotechnology start-ups. To put matters in perspective, Australia has a total of 470 biotechnology companies. More than half of these start-ups are involved in healthcare - drugs, medical devices and diagnostics - while about 14 per cent are in agricultural biotechnology and about 18 per cent in biotechnology services.
The Indian economy also has a distinct advantage with respect to its demography that can ensure sustained growth for the sector. More than half the Indian population is below the age of 25. On a global scale, the median age in India (26.5 years) is much below that of China (35.9 years) and the US (37.1 years). An effective utilisation of this demographic advantage will provide India a competitive edge over all other emerging economies in the advancement of biotechnological research and development.
However, a few challenges need to be addressed if India is to fuel the growth of its biotechnology industry and achieve its target of making it a $100 billion industry by 2025. First, India's research and development expenditure is quite low at 0.67 per cent of GDP, not only compared to mature biotechnology economies such as Japan and the US (which stands at around 3 per cent) but also in comparison to emerging economies like China (which is at around 2 percent).
Second, and more specific to the biotech pharmaceutical sector, there are a few India-specific challenges with the country's IP regime. There are two main areas of contention for the industry in India's approach to intellectual property. The first issue lies in Section 3(d) of the Patents (Amendment) Act, 2005, which sets a higher standard for patentability than mandated by TRIPS. The industry argues that India's stricter standards for patents discourages innovation and dampens foreign investment. The second issue is that of compulsory licensing, which gives the government power to suspend a patent in times of health emergencies. Although India has used this option only once, the industry feels that such regulations keep investors clear of Indian markets.
A third challenge lies in the risk involved in the Valley of Death, that is, the risk of failure in the transition of innovative products and services from discovery to marketisation. Most of the early research funding, often provided by universities or the government, runs out before the marketisation phase, the funding for which is mostly provided by venture capitalists. It becomes difficult to attract further capital between these two stages because a developing technology may seem promising, but it is often too early to validate its commercial potential. This gap has a huge impact in commercialisation of innovative ideas.
Thus, the Indian government needs to act on these challenges facing the biotechnology sector. An increase in investment towards research and development and building human capital is the most crucial point of action. These initiatives have shifted growth trajectories of countries like China away from India. As for the challenging IP regime, the government needs to come together with the biopharma industry and chalk out a middle ground that recognises the value of innovation and does not hurt its investment attractiveness. Finally, for the Valley of Death concerns, the government can build a mechanism where funding can be provided for select innovative ideas based on their national importance. Only such action-oriented steps can make biotechnology the next success story of the Indian economy.
 

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Vision for a New India: Here are the 75 goals BJP seeks to achieve by 2022 in its manifesto
BJP has listed 75 goals which the government will focus on achieving by the time the country celebrates its 75th anniversary of Independence.

The BJP, in its manifesto, has accorded the vision of a New India by 2022 a very prominent place. It has listed 75 goals which the government will focus on achieving by the time the country celebrates its 75th anniversary of Independence. The party has titled its manifesto as Sankalp Patra, meaning its not just announcement of promises, but a commitment to fulfil the promises made before the elections.
Here is a list of the 75 goals the BJP will seek to achieve by 2022:
  1. Achieve the target of doubling farmers’ income by 2022.
  2. Enable the creation of 10,000 new Farmer Producer Organizations.
  3. Ensure adequate market avenues for the realisation of MSP through e-NAM, GrAMs
    and Pradhan Mantri AASHA Yojana.
  4. Work towards ensuring that maximum farmers get income support under the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana.
  5. Launch a pension scheme for small and marginal farmers to ensure social security after 60 years of age.
  6. Work towards completing all irrigation projects under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayi Yojana.
  7. Provide short-term new agriculture loans up to ₹ 1 lakh at 0% interest rate for 1-5 years
    on the condition of prompt repayment of the principal amount.
  8. Increase the cropped area under irrigation.
  9. Work towards digitising land records.
  10. Strive to ensure all-weather connectivity for every village.
  11. Work towards assisting the maximum number of fishermen by ensuring the
    availability of storage and other infrastructure under a new ‘Matsya Sampada Yojana’.
  12. Ensure 100% disposal of liquid waste and reuse of waste water.
  13. Aim to cover all the secondary schools under Operation Digital Board.
  14. Enable investment of ₹ 1 lakh crore in higher education through Revitalising of Infrastructure and Systems in Education (RISE).
  15. Work towards increasing the number of seats in premier management institutes.
  16. Work towards increasing the number of seats in premier engineering institutes.
  17. Work towards increasing the number of seats in premier law institutes.
  18. Establish at least one Atal Tinkering Lab in every block.
  19. Under a new ‘Entrepreneurial Northeast’ scheme, provide financial support to MSMEs and for employment generation in northeastern states.
  20. Ensure a pucca house for every family.
  21. Ensure the LPG gas cylinder connection to all poor rural households.
  22. Ensure 100% electrification of all households.
  23. Ensure every citizen has access to a bank account.
  24. Ensure a toilet in every household.
  25. Ensure access to safe and potable drinking water for all households.
  26. Complete Phase-1 of Bharatmala Project expeditiously.
  27. Double the length of national highways.
  28. Ensure 100% waste collection under Swachh Bharat Mission to achieve ODF+ and ODF++ in cities and villages.
  29. Ensure ODF status for all villages and cities.
  30. Achieve 175 GW of renewable energy capacity.
  31. Strive to achieve 10% blending of ethanol in petrol.
  32. Connect every Gram Panchayat with high-speed optical fibre network.
  33. Ensure the supply of piped cooking gas in major Tier 1 and 2 cities.
  34. Form a new Ministry of Water unifying the water management functions. This will help approach the issue of water management holistically and ensure better co-ordination of efforts.
  35. Aim to increase the number of operational airports to 150 for better air connectivity.
  36. Increase port capacity to 2,500 MTPA.
  37. Ensure conversion of all viable rail tracks to broad gauge by 2022.
  38. Make all efforts to ensure electrification of all railway tracks by 2022.
  39. Start developing smart railway stations across India.
  40. Work towards equipping all main railway stations with Wi-Fi facility.
  41. Complete the dedicated freight corridor project by 2022.
  42. Establish 1.5 lakh health and wellness centres under Ayushman Bharat.
  43. Start setting up 75 new medical colleges/postgraduate medical colleges.
  44. Target provisioning of telemedicine and diagnostic laboratory facilities at all health and wellness centres to ensure quality primary medical care to the poor at their
    doorstep.
  45. Work towards increasing the number of childcare facilities threefold.
  46. Ensure a drastic reduction in cases of tuberculosis.
  47. Increase the doctor-population ratio to 1:1400.
  48. Under the POSHAN Abhiyaan, aim to reduce the malnutrition level as well as accelerate the rate of reduction of malnourishment.
  49. Further improve India’s rank in ‘Ease of Doing Business’ ranking.
  50. Work towards improving GDP share from the manufacturing sector.
  51. Work towards doubling the total exports.
  52. Establish National Traders’ Welfare Board and create a National Policy for Retail Trade for the growth of retail business.
  53. Work towards creating a single-window compliance and dispute resolution mechanism for MSMEs.
  54. Strive to ensure reduced tax rates, higher tax collection and greater compliance.
  55. Work towards ensuring a stable taxation regime.
  56. In order to incentivise compliance of law and ease of doing business, amend the
    Companies Act to impose civil liability for technical and procedural defaults of a minor nature, thus unclogging the majority of cases from courts.
  57. Ensure the availability of banking services within 5 km of every individual.
  58. Achieve complete digitisation and modernisation of courts.
  59. Promote and increase digital transactions.
  60. Ensure end-to-end digitisation of government processes.
  61. Enable digital delivery of government services.
  62. Work towards substantially reducing the current levels of air pollution.
  63. Work towards completely eliminating crop residue burning to reduce air pollution.
  64. Put an Indian in space in an Indian spacecraft as part of ‘Gaganyaan’ mission.
  65. Ensure full immunisation coverage of children.
  66. Strive to make all government buildings accessible.
  67. Ensure the completion of six Tribal Freedom Fighters Museums.
  68. Work towards completing the development of ‘Panchteerth’ circuit.
  69. Expand the Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maandhan scheme to cover all small
    shopkeepers.
  70. Ensure comprehensive social security coverage for all unorganised labourers including insurance, pension etc.
  71. Work towards increasing female workforce participation rate.
  72. Ensure justice for Muslim women by enacting the law against triple talaq.
  73. Achieve the goal of Clean Ganga by 2022.
  74. Complete the development of all projects under Swadesh Darshan, PRASAD and HRIDAY schemes.
  75. Work towards digitisation of collections in all national museums.
 

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Nationalism is BJP's inspiration, party will make India developed by 2047: PM Modi on manifesto launch
Modi said BJP's 'Sankalp Patra' aims to make India a developed nation by 2047, on completion of 100 years of Independence.


Agencies
"We first addressed needs of the people, now we will fulfil their aspirations," the prime minister said.
Asserting that nationalism is his party's inspiration and inclusion and good governance its mantra, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday said the BJP's manifesto aims to make India a developed nation by 2047, 100 years after independence. The party's 'Sankalp Patra" has 75 definitive time-bound targets for the country, Modi said after launching the party's manifesto three days ahead of the Lok Sabha elections beginning on April 11.
"We want people to hold us accountable. Hence, we have set out 75 goals to achieve by 2022," he said.
He said the party's 'Sankalp Patra' is a "multi-layer and multi-dimensional" document that addresses the expectations and aspirations of all sections of the society.
Modi said BJP's 'Sankalp Patra' aims to make India a developed nation by 2047, on completion of 100 years of Independence.
"Our aim to change India from a developing country to a developed country. We want to fight poverty rather than sit inside air conditioned rooms. Nationalism is our inspiration and inclusion and good governance is our mantra," he said.
"We first addressed needs of the people, now we will fulfil their aspirations," the prime minister said.
 

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Share of population over age of 60 in India projected to increase to 20% in 2050: UN
The percentage of the senior citizens in India's population has been growing at an increasing rate in recent years and the trend is likely to continue, Paulomi Tripathi said.

She noted that the National Old Age Pension Scheme and a subsidised food distribution programme provide income and nutritional security to older persons in poverty.
United Nations-The share of older persons, those aged 60 years or above, in India's population is projected to increase to nearly 20 per cent in 2050 and the country said equipping people in earlier age cohorts will help them remain in good health and involved in the community throughout the ageing process.
The percentage of the senior citizens in India's population has been growing at an increasing rate in recent years and the trend is likely to continue, First Secretary in India's Permanent Mission to the UN Paulomi Tripathi said Monday during an open-ended Working Group on Ageing here.
"We live in a world where people live longer than ever before. It is estimated that by 2050, there will be more people older than 60 years than those below 15 years," Tripathi said.
"The share of population over the age of 60 is projected to increase from 8 per cent to nearly 20 per cent in 2050. Fulfilling needs for services and social protection for senior citizens, protection of their rights and enabling them to contribute in the development process are priorities for India," she said.
Emphasising that ageing is irreversible and inevitable, Tripathi said "we must better equip people in earlier age cohorts, so that they remain in good physical and mental health and continue their involvement in family and community throughout the ageing process."
Stronger partnerships between civil society, community and families are necessary to complement the actions taken by Governments in this regard, she added.
The adoption of 2002 Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing provides a roadmap for addressing challenges of an ageing society and realisation of human rights of older persons. The 2030 Agenda also recognises the importance of realizing their full potential and their contribution for inclusive development.
The Madrid International Plan of Action adopted at the Second World Assembly on Ageing in 2002 offered a bold new agenda for handling the issue of ageing in the 21st-century.
It focused on three priority areas: older persons and development; advancing health and well-being into old age; and ensuring enabling and supportive environments.
The UN said that as fertility rates decline, the proportion of persons aged 60 and over is expected to double between 2007 and 2050, and their actual number will more than triple, reaching two billion by 2050. In most countries, the number of those over 80 is likely to quadruple to nearly 400 million.
"We need timely action based on the existing global framework and ensure that action should not fall behind this demographic trend. Increased investments, political will and addressing gaps in data and statistics are key to concerted response," she said.
According to the State of World Population 2019 report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), released last week, India's population in 2019 stood at 1.36 billion, growing from 942.2 million in 1994 and six per cent of India's population was of the age 65 and above.
India also recorded an improvement in life expectancy at birth, which was 47 years in 1969, growing to 60 years in 1994 and 69 years in 2019.
Highlighting the measures in place in India to improve quality of life of older persons and protect their rights, Tripathi said that India recently launched the world's largest healthcare programme "National Health Protection Scheme".
The National Policy on Senior Citizens envisages state support for financial and food security, health care, shelter and protection against exploitation. The National Council of Senior Citizens is the highest advisory body for policymaking on the entire gamut of issues related to elderly.
She further noted that the National Old Age Pension Scheme and a subsidised food distribution programme provide income and nutritional security to older persons in poverty.
The Continuing Education and Adult Education programmes in India extend literacy, vocational and quality of life training options, with special focus on reducing gender gap in literacy and post-literacy capacity building.
"India remains committed to taking all possible steps towards improving quality of life of older persons and protecting their rights and dignity through full implementation of Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing and the 2030 Agenda," Tripathi said.
 

nongaddarliberal

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Share of population over age of 60 in India projected to increase to 20% in 2050: UN
The percentage of the senior citizens in India's population has been growing at an increasing rate in recent years and the trend is likely to continue, Paulomi Tripathi said.

She noted that the National Old Age Pension Scheme and a subsidised food distribution programme provide income and nutritional security to older persons in poverty.
Thankfully by that time the productivity of the average Indian, along with AI and robotics will have improved enough for this not to be a big issue.
 

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The estimates for when India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country have been fluctuating every year. (Pradeep Gaur/Mint)
India’s other growth story: where slow is good
India’s population is growing slower than earlier estimated as states make quick progress, the latest population data shows.
India‘s slowing population growth had a substantial impact on global population trends, a deeper look at new global population estimates published by the United Nations Population Division shows.
20190715_112723.jpg

Source: World Population Prospects, various years Get the data Created with Datawrapper
A comparison of the latest World Population Prospects (2019 revision) with previous editions suggests that the downward revision in India’s population estimates for the future was the largest of any country, while the estimates for China’s population growth were simultaneously revised upwards.
The estimates for when India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country have been fluctuating every year.
Estimates for India's and China's future populations mirror each other
20190715_105854.jpg

The new projections for India are the lowest they have been since the UN first began these projections a decade ago.

Behind these downward revisions is the story’s of India’s rapidly accelerating demographic transition, a phenomenon whose pace has defied global expectations. Population projections emerge from the expected direction that trends in births and deaths take in a given country. Changes in the fertility rate - the expected number of children that a woman will have in her lifetime - affect the birth rate, while changes in disease environments (the slowing global spread of HIV/AIDS mortality, for instance) affect the death rate.
India’s fertility rate has fallen faster than earlier predicted by international agencies, on the back of falling fertility in its poorest states. Even among high fertility social groups --- the most prominent and widely discussed of which are Muslims --- fertility is falling faster than anticipated.
In demographic terms, 2.1 is the “replacement level of fertility", meaning that if every woman had 2.1 children on average, the population would remain of the same size. By 2013, India’s Total Fertility Rate was already down to 2.3 children per woman, a further decline from 2.4 in 2012. The earlier UN population projections estimated a higher fertility rate for this period, throwing their population projections off.
The TFR in 23 Indian states and Union Territories, including all of the south, is now below replacement level and only Bihar and Meghalaya still had TFRs above 3 children per woman as of 2016.
20190715_113150.jpg

Source: NFHS 2015-16 Get the data Created with Datawrapper
But India’s poorest states with its highest fertility rates are moving the fastest at reducing fertility. In 2011, Sample Registration Survey data indicated that between 1999-2001 and 2009-2011, the states doing the best job at lowering fertility were ones with an already low fertility rate, raising concerns that fertility outcomes might be diverging instead of converging. However the most recent data has shown that between 2004-06 and 2014-16, the backward states were pushing forward, lowering their fertility fastest. In every state and at every age group, more educated women had the lowest fertility rates.
Muslims in India continue to have a higher fertility rate than Hindus, as they have since the relevant Census data began to be recorded. However, Muslim fertility is falling faster than Hindu fertility, and the gap between the fertility rates of the two communities is closing, the most recent National Family Health Survey shows, according to an analysis by HowIndiaLives.com.
20190715_111730.jpg

Total Fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime at current fertility levels
Source: National Family Health Survey Get the data Created with Datawrapper

States that are doing an overall better job on reducing fertility are also doing a better job of closing this gap between the two communities’ fertility rates, demographer Saswata Ghosh found - as these states get richer, better educated and healthier, all women in these states are beginning to have fewer kids. As a result, Muslim women in the southern states have a lower fertility rate than Hindus in the Gangetic belt states; high Muslim fertility is only a problem in states with high levels of fertility for all women. Even at the district level “[g]enerally, it has been observed that in areas with a considerable decline in fertility there is hardly any district with very high fertility among Muslims," he found.
States with lower fertility have lower fertility for all women
20190715_112128.jpg

*J&K not included because there is a high degree of mismatch between TFR obtained from Sample Registration System, 2011 and that computed from Census 2011. Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are not separated here.
Source: Saswata Ghosh (ADRI) based on Census 2011 Get the data Created with Datawrapper

In India, however, fertility also closely ties in with son preference. Over the same time period that India has lowered its fertility, its sex ratio at birth --- the proportion of girls to boys born to all women --- has become markedly skewed in favour of boys. Limiting family size is closely related to the sex and birth order of the family’s existing children. According to the latest National Family Health Survey, 89% of women aged 15-49 with two sons and no daughters were content with a family size of four. But for women who had daughters but no sons, a larger family was on the cards. Among women aged 15-49 with two living daughters and no sons, 63% wanted no more children, in comparison. With no real evidence that the Indian preference for at least one son is going away any time soon, slowing population growth may continue for the near future to mean that families, as far as possible, attempt to have fewer girls.
Implicit in projections of global population, however, are assumptions about development, mortality and fertility that at times require the UN demographers to take leaps beyond what historical data predict, an exercise that can lead to revisions if reality does not pan out in precisely the same way. For example, the 2019 projections find that in some east Asian and southern European countries (such as Japan, Korea, Greece and Italy), fertility has fallen below 1.5 children per woman. However, since women in these countries express a desire for two children, the UN projects that in the future, with better childcare options, fertility in those countries might rise.
 
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Deathstar

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World Population prospects - Population division
https://population.un.org/wpp/

Total population:
https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Files/1_Indicators (Standard)/EXCEL_FILES/1_Population/WPP2019_POP_F01_1_TOTAL_POPULATION_BOTH_SEXES.xlsx

Till date, future population (low, medium & high fertility variants)
India had 6-7% slower population growth than expected. It's only China's population projection fluctuation bringing India's year of surpassing it up & down. India is slowing every year.

For India:
Projected for 2025: 1.445 billion
Projected for 2030: 1.504 billion
Projected for 2050: 1.64 billion
Peak population (Year: 2059): 1.65 billion
Projeccted for 2100: 1.45 billion (2025 level again)

Shut up for people who say India has a population bomb. These projections are expected to decline even further.

23 out of 36 Indian states/Union territories have negative population growth rate already. The ones with high population growth rate are progressing fast to reach replacement level now. Government is further going to come up with two child policy to fully stablize whatever little growth India has.

India is more likely to have a population of some 1.2 billion in 2100 at current scenario, most likely back at 2010 levels. But far more aged, richer and educated than ever before.
Problem is demographic changes , no ones talking about that
 

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