Making India an Upper Middle Income Economy, a High Income Economy in long term

[aditya10r]

First, the thread is about living standards and nominal GDP won't matter there because luxuries are adjusted by cost.
Our growth rate allows us to match first category in less than 10 years or surpass in 15 years.

Matching second may take a few decades as many of them too are growing very fast that they may become developed countries or at least third category till then. For third category, its mostly consisted of countries suffering recession or declining population, makes it possible to achieve 40-50% of them.

Not in this century at least.
Although, its not imgaineable how India may look like after 2100 before 2050.

I am very much sure that we can become a high income Economy.
But for that the very first thing is to have atleast twice the nominal income of global average.

The high income Economy with such attributes I can think of is Taiwan.
A fairly well developed country boasting high gdp per capita both nominal and PPP.We can reach that number but surely our population numbers need to go down and we should invest a good load of money in future technologies and boost our domestic industries,and bring women into work force.When women work the birth rate falls and increases quality of life and boosts general output of country.

Currently we have a population share of 16-17%,we surely won't be achieving 2xGDP per capita of world unless our population share goes down 10%,a Loooooooong shot.Maybe in 2150 we will hit that mark.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

I am very much sure that we can become a high income Economy.
But for that the very first thing is to have atleast twice the nominal income of global average.

The high income Economy with such attributes I can think of is Taiwan.
A fairly well developed country boasting high gdp per capita both nominal and PPP.We can reach that number but surely our population numbers need to go down and we should invest a good load of money in future technologies and boost our domestic industries,and bring women into work force.When women work the birth rate falls and increases quality of life and boosts general output of country.

Currently we have a population share of 16-17%,we surely won't be achieving 2xGDP per capita of world unless our population share goes down 10%,a Loooooooong shot.Maybe in 2150 we will hit that mark.

India's population growth rate & fertility rate is equal, actually a bit below world average and long term population growth perspective even lower than some developed countries.
Problem is that youth generates money which helps overall economy grow while it keeps holding back GDP per capita to some extent. But if population declines, long term growth perspective falls steep. The middle income trap!

 

[aditya10r]

India's population growth rate & fertility rate is equal, actually a bit below world average and long term population growth perspective even lower than some developed countries.
Problem is that youth generates money which helps overall economy grow while it keeps holding back GDP per capita to some extent. But if population declines, long term growth perspective falls steep. The middle income trap!

Hmmmm.

Yeah,I am not advocating for any population control,we need to boost output whith bringing women into workforce that should be enough to check our growth for long term and their mass induction into workforce will only stimulate the economy.

Agree with all your points tho.

At this time,we should try to become a proper middle income country in this half of the century and a high income one post 2050,we can only be a high income Economy post 2100 and when out population share falls below but we increase our general output and be called an advanced economy.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

India seeks to ease biggest hurdle for factories with new policy

 

[Indx TechStyle]

‘17 of 20 fastest-growing cities in the world will be from India’

Hyderabad is in the fourth place, followed by Nagpur, Tirupur, Rajkot, Tiruchirappalli, Chennai and Vijayawada (file photo)
HIGHLIGHTS

• Surat tops the list of top 10 fastest growing cities in the world between 2019 and 2035, followed by Agra and Bengaluru
• According to the forecast, in 2027, the aggregate GDP of all Asian cities will for the first time exceed the combined GDP of all North American and European cities

NEW DELHI: The list of fastest growing cities is dominated by India with 17 among the top 20 cities in the world, according to a global economic research report.

“When future GDP growth rates are compared, the story is mostly very different. In particular, 17 of the 20 fastest-growing cities in the world between 2019 and 2035 will be Indian, with Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Chennai among the strongest performers,” said a report from Oxford Economics, a research house engaged in global forecasting and quantitative analysis.

Surat tops the list of top 10 fastest growing cities in the world between 2019 and 2035, followed by Agra and Bengaluru. Hyderabad is in the fourth place, followed by Nagpur, Tirupur, Rajkot, Tiruchirappalli, Chennai and Vijayawada. Surat is a major diamond trading and processing centre and also has a strong IT sector.

Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Chennai are best known as technology hubs and home to large financial services firms. Outside of India, Phnom Penh is the fastest-growing city in the world in the 2019-2035 forecast, with Dar es Salaam the leader among African cities. In terms of population in 2035, Mumbai figures in the top 10 cities.

“By 2035, the combined GDP of Indian cities will still be very small compared with Chinese (or indeed, North American and European) cities. However, in terms of GDP growth, it is Indian cities that are the star performers in our forecast,” said Richard Holt, head of global cities research at Oxford Economics. However, Chinese cities will contribute significantly when it comes to aggregate GDP. Shanghai will join London as the world’s fourth-largest urban economy in 2035.

According to the forecast, in 2027, the aggregate GDP of all Asian cities will for the first time exceed the combined GDP of all North American and European cities. “By 2035, we project it will be 17% higher, with Chinese cities alone generating more output than all cities in North America or Europe,” the report said.

New York will still be the largest urban economy in the world in 2035, with the largest finance and business services sector. It will be followed by Tokyo and Los Angeles, with Shanghai tied with London for the fourth place, the report said.

The research house said the modelling and results in the report were based on information provided by third parties, “upon which Oxford Economics has relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith”.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Our economy is veey big actually but veey low Rupee value compared to its buying power haunts us. In ppp, we are 4 time larger economy. We must focus on strenghnistre INR. Recently, some great steps are taken to strengthen INR. Avoid all purchases in USD. Strike barter types of agreements like we did with Iran. Focus on export and impose heavy duty on import. Don't import anything which we can produce in the country.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

After massive recovery in lst two weeks, ₹ is falling again.

 

[Haldiram]

First, the thread is about living standards and nominal GDP won't matter there because luxuries are adjusted by cost.
Our growth rate allows us to match first category in less than 10 years or surpass in 15 years.

Matching second may take a few decades as many of them too are growing very fast that they may become developed countries or at least third category till then. For third category, its mostly consisted of countries suffering recession or declining population, makes it possible to achieve 40-50% of them.

Not in this century at least.
Although, its not imgaineable how India may look like after 2100 before 2050.

Is there an objective list of things you are using to define living standards? (X hours of electricity/ water/ crime rate/ jobs etc)? How do we keep track of the progress we are making?

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Is there an objective list of things you are using to define living standards? (X hours of electricity/ water/ crime rate/ jobs etc)? How do we keep track of the progress we are making?

Statistics published & trends do far.

Nothing else. We are called economically underdeveloped for nothing else.

 

[Haldiram]

Statistics published & trends do far.

Nothing else. We are called economically underdeveloped for nothing else.

Almost no standardized HDI metric will fit the mold of India. I hope there is an Indian metric that is not foreign currency based. This "X$ per day income"/ PPP wala metric is a trap. We have reached 100% last mile connectivity for taking power lines to villages in these last 3 years (even though power supply is short), so it should have shown up as a positive somewhere. We have also reached maximum mobile broadband penetration. We have one of the least crime rate. Even our slums are not violent ghettos, unlike Brazil. Neither of these things show up in any happiness index. Let's make a mental note of what metrics we want to judge ourselves by and more importantly, where to draw the line with government involvement in "wealth redistribution", because the slippery slope will take us back to Nehru's socialism.

If the government is able to make electricity, water and security available for the people, almost every other deficiency in the quality of life is the citizen's personal problem. One has to be clear about that, otherwise we will be stuck in "haye tauba!" mode forever.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Almost no standardized HDI metric will fit the mold of India. I hope there is an Indian metric that is not foreign currency based. This "X$ per day income"/ PPP wala metric is a trap. We have reached 100% last mile connectivity for taking power lines to villages in these last 3 years (even though power supply is short), so it should have shown up as a positive somewhere. We have also reached maximum mobile broadband penetration. We have one of the least crime rate. Even our slums are not violent ghettos, unlike Brazil. Neither of these things show up in any happiness index. Let's make a mental note of what metrics we want to judge ourselves by and more importantly, where to draw the line with government involvement in "wealth redistribution", because the slippery slope will take us back to Nehru's socialism.

If the government is able to make electricity, water and security available for the people, almost every other deficiency in the quality of life is the citizen's personal problem. One has to be clear about that, otherwise we will be stuck in "haye tauba!" mode forever.

Just for redefinition if Indian poverty line.
Should be set set at ₹200-300 a day will be ideal.
Wealth distribution should not be made an issue as slowly profit industrialists will increase money circulation in system and poor people can be lifted up.

 

[ezsasa]

After massive recovery in lst two weeks, ₹ is falling again.

Yup,Whenever there is news of OPEC cutting oil production, rupee is falling.

 

[ezsasa]

I think there is no point of thinking about this in 2018, I’d say 2022 would be the right year to make an assessment.

By 2022:
> more than 60% of India will have piped gas connection
> considerable progress would have happened in housing for all
> electricity would have reached all including north east
> Ganga would be cleaned(impacts 200 million people)
> transportation cost of goods will be brought down in the northern states because of DFC and water ways
> solar power generation would be close to 45 GW. This means less money spent on coal imports

Etc etc....

One thing that must happen immediately is more access to capital for small businesses(sub 1 crore).

 

[Indx TechStyle]

One thing that must happen immediately is more access to capital for small businesses(sub 1 crore).

And barring any more waivers on loans, specially from rural banks.

Anyways, considerable socio economic progress has been made in this decade.
Census 2021 numbers will change the popular perception of India not only to local & international media & organizations but itself among common educated Indians. Wondering if its going to attenuate regular UK media whinings in anyway.

Textbooks in middle schools should be updated.

 

[Haldiram]

And barring any more waivers on loans, specially from rural banks.

Anyways, considerable socio economic progress has been made in this decade.
Census 2021 numbers will change the popular perception of India not only to local & international media & organizations but itself among common educated Indians. Wondering if its going to attenuate regular UK media whinings in anyway.

Textbooks in middle schools should be updated.

Check this out. This nigga explains how evaluating poverty levels in terms of $/day income does not paint an accurate picture.

https://www.quora.com/What-is-something-most-people-dont-know-about-Africa/answer/Innocent-Masengo

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Check this out. This nigga explains how evaluating poverty levels in terms of $/day income does not paint an accurate picture.

https://www.quora.com/What-is-something-most-people-dont-know-about-Africa/answer/Innocent-Masengo

Well, I know that & that's why prefer PPP figures for even purchasing power rather than plain earning.
Though nominal GDP doesn't reflect economic growth, its relevant in international deals.
But I'm still not able to get point in dollars.
WB & IMF estimate economy to be around $2.7 trillions, directly using current exchange gets $2.3 trillions to me.
Which exchange rate are we using? Or ₹163 lakh crores is previous year's GDP?

 

[Suryavanshi]

I think there is no point of thinking about this in 2018, I’d say 2022 would be the right year to make an assessment.

By 2022:
> more than 60% of India will have piped gas connection
> considerable progress would have happened in housing for all
> electricity would have reached all including north east
> Ganga would be cleaned(impacts 200 million people)
> transportation cost of goods will be brought down in the northern states because of DFC and water ways
> solar power generation would be close to 45 GW. This means less money spent on coal imports

Etc etc....

One thing that must happen immediately is more access to capital for small businesses(sub 1 crore).

All this will go down the drain in 2019

 

[Haldiram]

Well, I know that & that's why prefer PPP figures for even purchasing power rather than plain earning.
Though nominal GDP doesn't reflect economic growth, its relevant in international deals.
But I'm still not able to get point in dollars.
WB & IMF estimate economy to be around $2.7 trillions, directly using current exchange gets $2.3 trillions to me.
Which exchange rate are we using? Or ₹163 lakh crores is previous year's GDP?

The point about translating income into wellbeing is that in the West everything costs money, because they have broken down the support system of the family, so it's "each man for himself" and they need an X money/per person/ per day type of evaluation. Here in India, it's more like X money/ per family. So 300rs per person is 9000rs a month, which can sustain a family of 4. If only 2 members in a family are working then it's 18k/month, which is definitely not poverty line, considering that the family as a whole will live much better.

The IMF is using PPP adjusted currency conversion, hence the difference in 2.3T vs 2.7T. (It's still useless).

To give you a context of how likely it is for both estimates to be inaccurate : more than 85% of India's GDP comes from companies that are not listed, and hence not audited. Only 15% of our companies are listed and maintain proper records so both parties are doing estimates, unlike the US where everything is formalized and listed on the stock exchange. That's why there was an uproar when Modi said that informal income/jobs like pakoda seller is producing economic value but is not being tracked in the formal economy.

All me is saying is that we are not at a stage where numbers can be compared because the numbers aren't being recorded properly. Our formal economy is somewhere 2.5T and our black economy is around 3T, so we are already 5T+ (which is why other powers are comparing India with China, otherwise no one would compare a 2.5T economy with a 10T economy). The 10 years of UPA forced people to move their white money into assets like real estate and caused an asset inflation. Such a person might be earning from real estate investments (rent/buy/sell) in cash and paying for goods and services (maids, drivers), so that cash keeps circulating in the economy and doesn't get tracked in PPP or job creation statistics. There are maids who are earning in thousands but officially, it appears as if minimum wage is 200rs. Which maid works on 200rs today?

So, everything is an "estimate". We should look at "per family/per year" kind of estimates rather than "per person/ per day" kind of metrics.

Their PPP and other inflation is calculated on WPI, whereas what affects our daily life is CPI, not WPI. So it's all jumbled up. Even economists are scratching their heads to come up with new metrics. Now they are thinking of "calorie based poverty" instead of currency based poverty.

They wrote a whole thesis about how they don't have the data to conduct that thesis.

 

[ezsasa]

Well, I know that & that's why prefer PPP figures for even purchasing power rather than plain earning.
Though nominal GDP doesn't reflect economic growth, its relevant in international deals.
But I'm still not able to get point in dollars.
WB & IMF estimate economy to be around $2.7 trillions, directly using current exchange gets $2.3 trillions to me.
Which exchange rate are we using? Or ₹163 lakh crores is previous year's GDP?

GDP is not calculated at current price, it is calculated at a base price in the past.

For us the current series is 2011-12 prices and USD Exchange rate during 2011-12.

GDP @ 2011 prices for 2017 is 130.11 lakh crores.

That would be around 2.6 trillion $ at around 50 rupee exchange rate(as of 2011 prices).

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Indian gaming industry comes of age in 2018

India’s wine industry is growing in the most delightful way