LETHALFORCE
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Politics of the supply routes to Afghanistan
It is an established principle of warfare that controlling the supply lines is essential to winning a war. The Afghan supply line question has become even more urgent now with a surge of 30,000 more troops planned to be sent to Afghanistan in the next 18 months. USA has relied mainly on Pakistan for supplies,but growing frustration from escalated attacks from extremists has NATO seeking other routes I am going to discuss the current and alternate supply routes ,the different nations and politics involved in getting supplies to Afghanistan
Pakistan
Currently 75% of all the supplies for Afghanistan go thru Pakistan. Supplies arrive at the port of Karachi and are sent to contractors, who hire truckers to get them to the Khyber pass 700 miles away. Many of the truckers are poorly paid and are refusing to take the job for fear of their lives, many truckers have been kidnapped or killed by the insurgents. The khyber pass has about 400 trucks passing thru a day but that number has fallen to about 100 trucks all with Pakistani troops to provide escort. Supported by Pakistan’s JI =Jamaat e Islami party the truckers declared a boycott of all military cargo transported to Afghanistan. In a sign of the increased insurgency land bridges have been destroyed ,supply trucks have been torched ; as well as disruptions from the port of Karachi have caused extensive delays in supplies reaching Afghanistan. In a response to these developments Pakistan has carried out short term operations in the tribal areas which have been unsuccessful only to have the militants return to resume attacks. Initially the Taliban first struck heavy slow moving trucks than when USA pressured Pakistan to beef up their presence on the roads the insurgents started attacking the trucks at truck stops in Peshawar, in one incident last year 100 trucks were torched. NATO claims the attacks do not interrupt operations since 60-90 days of fuel and food are kept on hand but are seeking alternate routes. The short term Pakistani operations against the insurgents have been unsuccessful because many analyst feel that Taliban sympathizers in the Pakistani army either alert the insurgents ahead of time or allows them to cross the border freely. USA has tried it’s best to secure the supply lines thru Pakistan while maintaining a distance from Pakistan, currently Predator drones carry out attacks on militant hideouts,many of the drones are believed to be operating from bases in Pakistan even though the Pakistani government denies it. Obama has assured the Pakistani government that troops will not be sent into Pakistan to get to the root of the problem . After all the failures and frustrations Obama has tripled aid to Pakistan and increased military and non military assistance in hopes of keeping Pakistani supply routes open if all other options fail. After 7 years of the same policy, Obama has not come up with anything original only increased the amount of aid in the hope of succeeding in a failing strategy by throwing more money at it. But Obama has for the first time asked for transparency to aid given to Pakistan and tied the aid to terrorism . Pakistan has used the supply lines as leverage and a bargaining chip, to reduce this leverage and increase the chance of victory NATO is seeking alternate supply routes .
Central Asia/Russia
Uzbekistan has agreed to allow US to transit non-military goods to Afghanistan. USA is trying for similar agreements with Russia, Kazakastan and Turkmenistan. The deal was welcomed relief after Krygyzstan recently voted to close the vital Manas air base a 24 hour operation playing a key role in transporting troops, refueling combat airplanes and medical evacuations . The closure came after Russia promised 2 billion in aid to kyrgyzstan. Which NATO felt the aid was a bribe and a hostile act by Russia . Alternatives to Manas are being sought in Tajikistan where there are many Soviet era air bases. 80% of all the fuel transported to Afghanistan is sent from Central Asia. The Central Asian supply lines also come with their share of problems. Many nations in Central asia are dictatorships and Islamic ; who do not view democracy for Afghanistan as important cause and view the war as a greater war against Islam, convincing them of their own Taliban and Al queda threat has been no easy task, also Russia still has a strong presence in the region and has the final word in most matters. Countries like Turkmenistan get much of their revenue from GAZPROM the Russian oil conglomerate and would do little to upset Russia in fear of losing their revenue. A plan was proposed that involved Turkey-Georgia-Azerbajan to the Caspian sea to Turkmenistan route which became to complex containing multiple land and sea routes and roads needed to be built as well as ports needed to be developed, further complicating the plan was the Georgia –Russian conflict, as well as organized crime groups requesting large sums for protection money . Russia is still wary of USA ‘s role in Afghanistan, Russians feel USA used the premise of 9/11 to build a presence in Afghanistan for strategic encirclement of not only Russia but also China and Iran. This belief may have lead to the creation of SCO the Shanghai corporation ,which presents itself as an energy organization but also has military implications. Currently China and Russia control the SCO with Central Asian nation members, there are also many observer nations from other parts of Asia like India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia who may become future members, the future role of SCO could limit US presence in the region and possibly grow to become a direct threat to NATO ‘s position as the sole military alliance as well as reduce the role of UN in world affairs. Recently Russia requested Afghanistan to become a member of SCO, a move which challenged USA’s role in the war. Russia has expressed her willingness to cooperate with NATO in Afghanistan with the supply lines in return has asked for assurances from NATO to keep Ukraine and Georgia from becoming future NATO members to prevent any further encirclement and also requested USA to drop their plans for a missile shield in Eastern Europe ,no assurances have been given by USA in this regard. Many of the routes thru Central Asia are viable only if relations between Russia and USA are maintained. The routes would also allow Russia to maintain leverage over USA . Russia would also look bad to lose in a place where they helped USA to win.
continued
It is an established principle of warfare that controlling the supply lines is essential to winning a war. The Afghan supply line question has become even more urgent now with a surge of 30,000 more troops planned to be sent to Afghanistan in the next 18 months. USA has relied mainly on Pakistan for supplies,but growing frustration from escalated attacks from extremists has NATO seeking other routes I am going to discuss the current and alternate supply routes ,the different nations and politics involved in getting supplies to Afghanistan
Pakistan
Currently 75% of all the supplies for Afghanistan go thru Pakistan. Supplies arrive at the port of Karachi and are sent to contractors, who hire truckers to get them to the Khyber pass 700 miles away. Many of the truckers are poorly paid and are refusing to take the job for fear of their lives, many truckers have been kidnapped or killed by the insurgents. The khyber pass has about 400 trucks passing thru a day but that number has fallen to about 100 trucks all with Pakistani troops to provide escort. Supported by Pakistan’s JI =Jamaat e Islami party the truckers declared a boycott of all military cargo transported to Afghanistan. In a sign of the increased insurgency land bridges have been destroyed ,supply trucks have been torched ; as well as disruptions from the port of Karachi have caused extensive delays in supplies reaching Afghanistan. In a response to these developments Pakistan has carried out short term operations in the tribal areas which have been unsuccessful only to have the militants return to resume attacks. Initially the Taliban first struck heavy slow moving trucks than when USA pressured Pakistan to beef up their presence on the roads the insurgents started attacking the trucks at truck stops in Peshawar, in one incident last year 100 trucks were torched. NATO claims the attacks do not interrupt operations since 60-90 days of fuel and food are kept on hand but are seeking alternate routes. The short term Pakistani operations against the insurgents have been unsuccessful because many analyst feel that Taliban sympathizers in the Pakistani army either alert the insurgents ahead of time or allows them to cross the border freely. USA has tried it’s best to secure the supply lines thru Pakistan while maintaining a distance from Pakistan, currently Predator drones carry out attacks on militant hideouts,many of the drones are believed to be operating from bases in Pakistan even though the Pakistani government denies it. Obama has assured the Pakistani government that troops will not be sent into Pakistan to get to the root of the problem . After all the failures and frustrations Obama has tripled aid to Pakistan and increased military and non military assistance in hopes of keeping Pakistani supply routes open if all other options fail. After 7 years of the same policy, Obama has not come up with anything original only increased the amount of aid in the hope of succeeding in a failing strategy by throwing more money at it. But Obama has for the first time asked for transparency to aid given to Pakistan and tied the aid to terrorism . Pakistan has used the supply lines as leverage and a bargaining chip, to reduce this leverage and increase the chance of victory NATO is seeking alternate supply routes .
Central Asia/Russia
Uzbekistan has agreed to allow US to transit non-military goods to Afghanistan. USA is trying for similar agreements with Russia, Kazakastan and Turkmenistan. The deal was welcomed relief after Krygyzstan recently voted to close the vital Manas air base a 24 hour operation playing a key role in transporting troops, refueling combat airplanes and medical evacuations . The closure came after Russia promised 2 billion in aid to kyrgyzstan. Which NATO felt the aid was a bribe and a hostile act by Russia . Alternatives to Manas are being sought in Tajikistan where there are many Soviet era air bases. 80% of all the fuel transported to Afghanistan is sent from Central Asia. The Central Asian supply lines also come with their share of problems. Many nations in Central asia are dictatorships and Islamic ; who do not view democracy for Afghanistan as important cause and view the war as a greater war against Islam, convincing them of their own Taliban and Al queda threat has been no easy task, also Russia still has a strong presence in the region and has the final word in most matters. Countries like Turkmenistan get much of their revenue from GAZPROM the Russian oil conglomerate and would do little to upset Russia in fear of losing their revenue. A plan was proposed that involved Turkey-Georgia-Azerbajan to the Caspian sea to Turkmenistan route which became to complex containing multiple land and sea routes and roads needed to be built as well as ports needed to be developed, further complicating the plan was the Georgia –Russian conflict, as well as organized crime groups requesting large sums for protection money . Russia is still wary of USA ‘s role in Afghanistan, Russians feel USA used the premise of 9/11 to build a presence in Afghanistan for strategic encirclement of not only Russia but also China and Iran. This belief may have lead to the creation of SCO the Shanghai corporation ,which presents itself as an energy organization but also has military implications. Currently China and Russia control the SCO with Central Asian nation members, there are also many observer nations from other parts of Asia like India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia who may become future members, the future role of SCO could limit US presence in the region and possibly grow to become a direct threat to NATO ‘s position as the sole military alliance as well as reduce the role of UN in world affairs. Recently Russia requested Afghanistan to become a member of SCO, a move which challenged USA’s role in the war. Russia has expressed her willingness to cooperate with NATO in Afghanistan with the supply lines in return has asked for assurances from NATO to keep Ukraine and Georgia from becoming future NATO members to prevent any further encirclement and also requested USA to drop their plans for a missile shield in Eastern Europe ,no assurances have been given by USA in this regard. Many of the routes thru Central Asia are viable only if relations between Russia and USA are maintained. The routes would also allow Russia to maintain leverage over USA . Russia would also look bad to lose in a place where they helped USA to win.
continued