I thought I'd create this thread for anyone to discuss the election in. The election is special because it's the only major country in Europe where the far-right have a feasible chance of getting into power without the help of other parties (i.e. without alliances).
France chooses its President through two rounds. The electorate chooses their favorite from a variety of candidates in the first round, and the top two winners of the first-round election (semi-finals) are then forwarded to the second-round (finals), where the candidate with the highest number of votes gets job of President.
It's widely accepted that Le Pen (far-right) will be in the top two of the first-round. But it's still up for grabs whether Macron (centrist), Fillon (center-right), or Melenchon (far-left), will meet her in the second round; but Le Pen is expected to lose the second round as many middle class voters will fear her anti-globalist rhetoric.
The current favorite is Pro-EU globalist 'Macron'. He used to be a member of Parti Socialiste, but he is economically more right-wing and used to work for an investment bank. He sides with Merkel's open door policy and is against Le Pen's anti-globalist rhetoric - he is seen as a "I'm scared of Le Pen" vote.
The most controversial, and pretty much the 'star' of the show, is Marine Le Pen.
She fronts the French far-right party 'Front National'. But she doesn't hold any regressive cultural values, she proposes stronger socialist welfare policies, and she is fairly tolerant towards minorities.
While her Islamophobia is fairly tolerated (or even adored) by the middle class, her anti-American, anti-globalist, and anti-EU rhetoric have made middle-class voters more vary of voting for her. And the banks dislike her father, former leader of Front National a long time ago, who used to be anti-Jewish.
There are two other candidates who might be able to beat one of the above (most likely Macron) in the first round:
- Melenchon is a far-left candidate who thinks the USSR was a "citizens' revolution" (i.e. India's CPI)
- Fillon is the traditional center-right candidate who supports Islamophobia but is against socialism. He was favorite to win until a corruption scandal weakened his voter base.
The remaining candidates are unlikely to achieve anything beyond the first-round.
I personally hope that either Le Pen or Fillon wins the election. I certainly hope France does not chose Macron as the President. I think it's sad that Fillon was weakened by his corruption scandal.
France chooses its President through two rounds. The electorate chooses their favorite from a variety of candidates in the first round, and the top two winners of the first-round election (semi-finals) are then forwarded to the second-round (finals), where the candidate with the highest number of votes gets job of President.
It's widely accepted that Le Pen (far-right) will be in the top two of the first-round. But it's still up for grabs whether Macron (centrist), Fillon (center-right), or Melenchon (far-left), will meet her in the second round; but Le Pen is expected to lose the second round as many middle class voters will fear her anti-globalist rhetoric.
The CandidatesThe last reliable opinion poll from French pollsters (8274 participants) was by Ipsos:
Macron: 23%
Le Pen: 22.5%
The only contenders would be Fillon at 19.5% and Melenchon at 19%.
The current favorite is Pro-EU globalist 'Macron'. He used to be a member of Parti Socialiste, but he is economically more right-wing and used to work for an investment bank. He sides with Merkel's open door policy and is against Le Pen's anti-globalist rhetoric - he is seen as a "I'm scared of Le Pen" vote.
The most controversial, and pretty much the 'star' of the show, is Marine Le Pen.
She fronts the French far-right party 'Front National'. But she doesn't hold any regressive cultural values, she proposes stronger socialist welfare policies, and she is fairly tolerant towards minorities.
While her Islamophobia is fairly tolerated (or even adored) by the middle class, her anti-American, anti-globalist, and anti-EU rhetoric have made middle-class voters more vary of voting for her. And the banks dislike her father, former leader of Front National a long time ago, who used to be anti-Jewish.
There are two other candidates who might be able to beat one of the above (most likely Macron) in the first round:
- Melenchon is a far-left candidate who thinks the USSR was a "citizens' revolution" (i.e. India's CPI)
- Fillon is the traditional center-right candidate who supports Islamophobia but is against socialism. He was favorite to win until a corruption scandal weakened his voter base.
The remaining candidates are unlikely to achieve anything beyond the first-round.
I personally hope that either Le Pen or Fillon wins the election. I certainly hope France does not chose Macron as the President. I think it's sad that Fillon was weakened by his corruption scandal.
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