La Présidentielle 2017: The French Presidential Election Megathread

busesaway

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I thought I'd create this thread for anyone to discuss the election in. The election is special because it's the only major country in Europe where the far-right have a feasible chance of getting into power without the help of other parties (i.e. without alliances).



France chooses its President through two rounds. The electorate chooses their favorite from a variety of candidates in the first round, and the top two winners of the first-round election (semi-finals) are then forwarded to the second-round (finals), where the candidate with the highest number of votes gets job of President.

It's widely accepted that Le Pen (far-right) will be in the top two of the first-round. But it's still up for grabs whether Macron (centrist), Fillon (center-right), or Melenchon (far-left), will meet her in the second round; but Le Pen is expected to lose the second round as many middle class voters will fear her anti-globalist rhetoric.

The last reliable opinion poll from French pollsters (8274 participants) was by Ipsos:

Macron: 23%
Le Pen: 22.5%

The only contenders would be Fillon at 19.5% and Melenchon at 19%.
The Candidates

The current favorite is Pro-EU globalist 'Macron'. He used to be a member of Parti Socialiste, but he is economically more right-wing and used to work for an investment bank. He sides with Merkel's open door policy and is against Le Pen's anti-globalist rhetoric - he is seen as a "I'm scared of Le Pen" vote.




The most controversial, and pretty much the 'star' of the show, is Marine Le Pen.

She fronts the French far-right party 'Front National'. But she doesn't hold any regressive cultural values, she proposes stronger socialist welfare policies, and she is fairly tolerant towards minorities.

While her Islamophobia is fairly tolerated (or even adored) by the middle class, her anti-American, anti-globalist, and anti-EU rhetoric have made middle-class voters more vary of voting for her. And the banks dislike her father, former leader of Front National a long time ago, who used to be anti-Jewish.



There are two other candidates who might be able to beat one of the above (most likely Macron) in the first round:
- Melenchon is a far-left candidate who thinks the USSR was a "citizens' revolution" (i.e. India's CPI)
- Fillon is the traditional center-right candidate who supports Islamophobia but is against socialism. He was favorite to win until a corruption scandal weakened his voter base.

The remaining candidates are unlikely to achieve anything beyond the first-round.

I personally hope that either Le Pen or Fillon wins the election. I certainly hope France does not chose Macron as the President. I think it's sad that Fillon was weakened by his corruption scandal.
 
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amoy

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I personally hope that either Le Pen or Fillon wins the election. I certainly hope France does not chose Macron as the President. I think it's sad that Fillon was weakened by his corruption scandal.
I don't think Le Pen would win. She'd be a catastrophe for France intensifying internal strifes. Her xenophobia is not toward Muslims only (assuming u're an Indian actually).

Macron may have a chance. The electoral system seems in favour of him, with the Left and Right eventually opting for him (in the 2nd round) for fear of FN. France may turn out to be another bubble like PIIGS.

The ultra left and far right seem to nail down the "problems" but offer no feasible solutions.
 

busesaway

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I don't think Le Pen would win. It'd be a catastrophe for France. Her xenophobia is not toward Muslims only (assuming u're an Indian).

Macron may have a chance. The electoral system seems in favour of him, with the Left and Right eventually opting for him for fear of FN. France may turn out to be another bubble like PIIGS.

The ultra left and far right seem to nail down the "problems" but offer no feasible solutions.
She isn't racist towards Indians and East Asians. She looks down on Blacks and Gypsies, and she's been accused of being a closet Anti-Semite due to FN's history of close relations with Nazi movements, but most of her attention is focused on attacking Muslims - something that's tolerated by the middle class. Her xenophobia is more to do with EU and capitalism, rather than actual racism.

Macron's popularity is due to the failure of Fillon to compensate for his alleged "corruption". The voters who wanted to vote for the Islamophobic Fillon are now voting for the Pro-EU capitalist Macron because they fear the Anti-EU Nationalist Le Pen.

I'm hoping for someone akin to Fillon. But if that fails, then I hope for Le Pen.
 

captscooby81

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Well i think we may have a surprise in french elections who knows Fillon might pull it up over macron and may go ahead and win the elections .. i feel Fillon will win as he is believed to be economically liberal and favours business and also plans to cut Tax rates for the individual s and also has hardliner stance against islamic terrorism and stringer immigration norms ..My wish would be Fillon more than Le pen
 

busesaway

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We will get exit polls at 20:00 CET, so in about three hours time.
 

Adioz

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Er........what is so mega about this thread?

On a serious note though, France really needs a right-wing leader that can take care of the mess that is boiling over in the middle east and pouring into adjacent regions. So does all of Europe. I actually like Le Pen more than Fillon. I would love to see the EU get rekt. That way, we can push for trade-deals with each individual nation.

Meanwhile, I hope Macaron does not win the elections. He should stay in Amagai Brilliant Park. He is only good as a mascot character.

Macaron: Extreme right (pun intended)
:laugh:
 

busesaway

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Er........what is so mega about this thread?
A "megathread" is essentially created when a major event or topic is about to be discussed in order to prevent multiple threads appearing. I'm quite sure that the "face of Europe's far-right" would be widely discussed everywhere, including DFI.
 

busesaway

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I didn't put this in the opening post since it wasn't officially published and I wasn't aware of the demographics behind it, but a poll was leaked on the night before the election, after the attack in Champs-Elysées, which showed Le Pen and Fillon leading.

According to the unpublished opinion poll, Marine Le Pen leads the vote, as widely predicted, but with nearly 26% of the vote! And shockingly, Fillon is placed above Macron, with 22% of the vote, meaning that Macron will not make it to the final!

Le Pen is poised to do best against Fillon.
 

indiandefencefan

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Videos aside, while as @Adioz stated, France may need a right wing leader to deal with the perpetual mess in the Middle-East, lets be realistic. France alone cannot do anything about the refugee crisis.
Even in an alliance with NATO, the situation has been festering since 2001 despite repeated attempts to diffuse it.

What I think will happen if LePen becomes President is that she won't be able to do anything about the ME and at the same time will damage France's reputation due to her racism and xenophobia.
Who knows her Presidency might even impact Indo-French ties due to her racism.

Hence I want Macron to win because at least he has a background in economics and can help the French economy.

One common thing I always notice with the Right wingers is that during campaigns they promise us the moon (yes Modi, still waiting for Achhe Din) but once elected go into a state of hibernation till the next election season. Classic case is how Obamacare is still around.
 

Adioz

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I didn't put this in the opening post since it wasn't officially published and I wasn't aware of the demographics behind it, but a poll was leaked on the night before the election, after the attack in Champs-Elysées, which showed Le Pen and Fillon leading.

According to the unpublished opinion poll, Marine Le Pen leads the vote, as widely predicted, but with nearly 26% of the vote! And shockingly, Fillon is placed above Macron, with 22% of the vote, meaning that Macron will not make it to the final!

Le Pen is poised to do best against Fillon.
The result is already out then. It has to be Le Pen.
@indiandefencefan Trump is a madman. Not because he is a hardliner, but because he is a weird and ironic combo of a maverick with no brains and a puppet of the business lobbies. He does not belong in the same category as Modi just because they share a label.
On Modi's failure to bring "acche din", we all know how logical talk will not get you very far in any election, let alone the Indian General Election. Election promises are meant to paint a rosy picture of the future. If you speak the truth, no one will vote for you. Why I like Modi, even though he is a hardliner and I am a leftist, is because he is the best we have got right now, and because he is setting the bar very high for the next congress leader. This is good for our country. Congress is being pushed into a corner, and this will force a change in the national left front. This change raises the standard of Indian political culture, which has traditionally been the weakest link in our democracy.

On Le Pen though, only time will tell. I know that no leader can dream of fulfilling most of their election promises, but I still think Europe needs to resist migration.
 

indiandefencefan

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The result is already out then. It has to be Le Pen.
@indiandefencefan Trump is a madman. Not because he is a hardliner, but because he is a weird and ironic combo of a maverick with no brains and a puppet of the business lobbies. He does not belong in the same category as Modi just because they share a label.
On Modi's failure to bring "acche din", we all know how logical talk will not get you very far in any election, let alone the Indian General Election. Election promises are meant to paint a rosy picture of the future. If you speak the truth, no one will vote for you. Why I like Modi, even though he is a hardliner and I am a leftist, is because he is the best we have got right now, and because he is setting the bar very high for the next congress leader. This is good for our country. Congress is being pushed into a corner, and this will force a change in the national left front. This change raises the standard of Indian political culture, which has traditionally been the weakest link in our democracy.

On Le Pen though, only time will tell. I know that no leader can dream of fulfilling most of their election promises, but I still think Europe needs to resist migration.
Can't disagree with your points on Trump and our choice as Indians.

Its an old saying that "When France sneezes, Europe catches cold". This is what I fear if LePen messes up. With Macron we have a safe bet that things will go as they have been. As far migration goes, friends in Paris tell me that the French are role models when it comes to being racist so I don't think the French public will allow Macron to have an open door policy.

Macron is also a good bet for Indians from another angle - Indian strategic depth.
If LePen wins and initiates a "Frexit" the Eurozone will collapse. Then guess to whom all those ex-Euro countries will go to for trade deals. Our friendly neighbor to the north will undoubtedly take prompt advantage of the situation while our govt. will sleep.

I'm not adverse to LePen but hoping the center and left band together for Macron or Fillion to take office.
 

busesaway

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The legislative election will be interesting.

Islamophobia is more demographically widespread in Europe in comparison to the United States, with widespread Islamophobia occurring regardless of age, education level, social class, or locality. A lot of the middle class oppose the pro-muslim sentiments that come from the left-wing and therefore they sympthize with Le Pen.

It would be interesting to see whether Le Pen is more successful at those elections, where there's slim chance of her governing by herself, than here, where it's 100% her or 100% not her.
 

Akshay_Fenix

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Higher voter turnout means more votes for le pen, cuz liberals are lazy swine's and like to complain rather than vote.
 

busesaway

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This has been going around on social media sites:

Le Pen 32%
Fillon 24%
Macron 17%
Melenchon 14%

But I have no idea where it came from.
 

busesaway

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Higher voter turnout means more votes for le pen, cuz liberals are lazy swine's and like to complain rather than vote.
In European political culture, far-right parties tend to poll higher at elections than in opinion polls due to the secrecy of the ballot voting procedure, hence it's widely expected that Le Pen will get through to the second round.

It's whether Fillon can beat Macron is what people are thinking now.
 

busesaway

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Kantar:

Macron and Le Pen both have 23%.
Fillon and Melenchon both have 19%
 

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