Know Your 'Rafale'

[IndianHawk]

The Dassault production line is humming along at 26 units per year. That means long lead items are cheaper as more units are being ordered. When the production line is set up at Reliance the cost of labour will drop compared to what French workers are paid. Ambani has left the running of the JV to Dassault to set up and run. They know best how to get the efficiency and quality they need out of making it in India. There will be no headaches like HAL would have given us with their ridiculous 3X man hours to do the same job.

What is the latest batch order cost by France.
How many more rafale will France procure?

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[BON PLAN]

Important question is what is the price of rafale in 2020. Adjusted to military inflation.
Last contract for 36 was signed in 2016. It's been 3 years already. Even if next order is placed in 2020 rafale will be much costlier then 2016.
Infrastructure cost will be down for next 36 birds as there is already infra for 2 additional squadron. But more then that and infra cost will add again , same for weapons.
So what will be the cost of 114 rafale .
200 mil per unit or more.

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Why much costlier?
If you take the same F3R standard, the cost in France just evolved by 1.5% each year in a first approach.
So the dry plane (ie without weapon, support, spares) remains in the euro 100 millions area.

 

[BON PLAN]

What is the latest batch order cost by France.
How many more rafale will France procure?

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Last batch order cost in the 95 millions each.

 

[BON PLAN]

Naval rafale m will be more costly than even airforce rafale.

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I think in term of cost it is :
Single air variant < dual seat variant < naval variant

The only changes between C and M are : undercarriage, integrated ladder, hook. Not the most costlier parts of a plane.

 

[BON PLAN]

Last batch order cost in the 95 millions each.

With VAT !!!
No VAT for export.

 

[Picard]

With VAT !!!
No VAT for export.

How much is VAT? 19,6% if memory serves me, so cost for India would then be 76 million per aircraft, +weapons, support, air base modifications, training etc.

 

[IndianHawk]

How much is VAT? 19,6% if memory serves me, so cost for India would then be 76 million per aircraft, +weapons, support, air base modifications, training etc.

For last order in 2016 India paid 105 million flyaway per unit. So this 76 million or 90 million is absurd for Indian price.


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[IndianHawk]

Why much costlier?
If you take the same F3R standard, the cost in France just evolved by 1.5% each year in a first approach.
So the dry plane (ie without weapon, support, spares) remains in the euro 100 millions area.

So that's 7% appreciation in 4 years.
So a contract by 2021 will mean at least 10-15% application including weaponry inflation too.

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[IndianHawk]

Why much costlier?
If you take the same F3R standard, the cost in France just evolved by 1.5% each year in a first approach.
So the dry plane (ie without weapon, support, spares) remains in the euro 100 millions area.

Also military inflation for import deals generally run 10% per annum or more .
What was the price of rafale quoted to india in 2012 as compared to 2016? That will give an idea of how much cost will increase in 2020.

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[IndianHawk]

Also if rafale is ordered 100+ numbers then a new manufacturing line will need to be set up in India + 30% offset clause. Capital investment in new manufacturing line will increase the cost of rafale . Made in India birds are always costly than direct import for these reasons.

Original mmrca budget was 10 billion dollars in 2006-7. Now in 2019 we have paid 9 billion for 36 birds. 100 more rafale made in India will cost 24-25 billion minimum. Taking the whole program cost to 33-34 billion. I don't think India has that much money for this program.

Likely scenario 36 more rafale for 8 billion as infra is there and that's it.

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[Armand2REP]

USN just ordered 78 new Block-3 SH.

https://navaltoday.com/2019/03/21/us-navy-orders-additional-78-super-hornets-under-4b-contract/

With the production run ending in 2021... it is not that far away. Rafale has guaranteed orders until 2030.

 

[IndianHawk]

With the production run ending in 2021... it is not that far away. Rafale has guaranteed orders until 2030.

If that is the case American will start offering f18 production line to India wholesale for 57 navy + 114 mmrca.

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[Armand2REP]

If that is the case American will start offering f18 production line to India wholesale for 57 navy + 114 mmrca.

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India is willing to accept used tooling equipment? Who would accept that?

 

[IndianHawk]

India is willing to accept used tooling equipment? Who would accept that?

So long as responsibility of quality and timely production lies with Boeing what does India care . Same goes for rafale and dassualt.

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[Armand2REP]

So long as responsibility of quality and timely production lies with Boeing what does India care . Same goes for rafale and dassualt.

India has been offered the transfer of multiple production lines of retired aircraft runs, not once have they accepted it and I doubt they ever would.

 

[IndianHawk]

India has been offered the transfer of multiple production lines of retired aircraft runs, not once have they accepted it and I doubt they ever would.

Maybe they won't. But shornet has an advantage that is f414. A single plant by ge will produce and maintain f414 for hornet , mwf and amca. Total 114 hornet = 228 mwf 200 engine + amca 100*2 = 200 engine . Total 628 engine + spare engine.

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[Advaidhya Tiwari]

Maybe they won't. But shornet has an advantage that is f414. A single plant by ge will produce and maintain f414 for hornet , mwf and amca. Total 114 hornet = 228 mwf 200 engine + amca 100*2 = 200 engine . Total 628 engine + spare engine.

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You are assuming that USA will give F414 technology to India. At best, they will give screwdriver task of assembly. If USA gives F414 technology transfer, then India will give 500 F18 order on the spot

 

[Armand2REP]

Maybe they won't. But shornet has an advantage that is f414. A single plant by ge will produce and maintain f414 for hornet , mwf and amca. Total 114 hornet = 228 mwf 200 engine + amca 100*2 = 200 engine . Total 628 engine + spare engine.

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That is quite a bit of reliance on the US. If they ever decide to sanction India it could bring the entire IAF to a grinding halt.

 

[IndianHawk]

You are assuming that USA will give F414 technology to India. At best, they will give screwdriver task of assembly. If USA gives F414 technology transfer, then India will give 500 F18 order on the spot

Not ip of f414 just tot for manufacturing and maintenance in India . GE is already building a plant .

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[IndianHawk]

That is quite a bit of reliance on the US. If they ever decide to sanction India it could bring the entire IAF to a grinding halt.

Mwf and amca and lca mk1/mk1a will anyway use ge engine. A manufacturing plant in India with spare in reserve can negate sanctions for few years .
Btw India is world's third largest economy already at ppp at nominal it will reach there by 2025 sanctions on India will ripple through world economy bringing recession.
Not to mention US will lose a major customer of weapons as well as an ally against China. Too much to loose.
US reaction to asat test is the preview of things to come.

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