Kevin Rudd is ex-PM of Australia and a China specialist. Although I don't agree with everything, its still a very thoughtful article which I recommend for people who have time to go through. I have quoted the concluding section below. He is regarded as a Sinophile in Australia
New Statesman - Kevin Rudd: The west isn't ready for the rise of China
New Statesman - Kevin Rudd: The west isn't ready for the rise of China
I noted earlier that the debate about China's future in the world is not just the sound of one hand clapping. The attitude and the actions of the rest of us can also have a profound effect, for good or ill. Regrettably, however, it is a debate for which most of the collective west is ill-prepared, particularly given individual countries' domestic preoccupations with their respective economic futures and, as a result, the increasing political insularity of both Europe and the United States. Policy elites on both sides of the Atlantic (with the exception of some sections of the Obama administration) are largely disengaged from this, most critical conversation of the century – the rise of China. However, that is not the case in Asia, where, because of proximity, the policy debate on China is more sophisticated, nuanced and acute. There is, nonetheless, a real danger that a new global and regional order begins to emerge by default, in the absence of significant diplomatic engagement from the west, and one that may turn out to be deeply inimical to western values and interests.
So, what then is to be done? Is it possible for the west (and, for that matter, the rest) to embrace a central organising principle as we engage China over the future of the inter-national order? I believe it is. But it will require collective intellectual effort, diplomatic co-ordination, sustained political will and, most critically, continued, open and candid engagement with the Chinese political elite. So, what might the core elements of such an engagement look like?
First, the international community must accept that it is entirely legitimate for China to have a louder voice at the global negotiating table. Not only is China a great civilisation, it has become, once again, a great power. The international system should not be seen to be exclusively the expression of western interests. The history of European colonisation has done much to diminish the moral authority of the colonisers in the eyes of those in the previously colonised world. Europeans in particular are often blind to this reality. It is critical that the future international system be based on universal values, as expressed in the various normative codes of the United Nations system, rather than the narrow interests of a particular group of states. And within this framework, Chinese, Indian, Latin American and African voices should be able to play a more important role, including making contributions from their own civilisatorial traditions.
Second, we should argue clearly with the Chinese political elite that the current liberal internationalist order, which has preserved the global peace and enhanced prosperity for two-thirds of a century, must be sustained. This will entail enhanced co-operation with China on the world's security, macroecono-mic, macrofinancial, trade, investment, social, environmental and humanitarian challenges, based on the agreed norms of the present global rules-based order.
Any recourse by any member state to uni-lateralist, nationalist or mercantilist behaviour should be deemed unacceptable. This principle must be applied rigorously to all of us, including China. It also means that China should be encouraged to enhance the existing order through its own policy actions, even when its national interests are not at stake, but whenever the integrity of the order is worth defending in its own right. Such an approach is very much in keeping with the advocacy by Robert Zoellick, the former president of the World Bank, of the principle of China as a responsible global stakeholder.
Third, if, for whatever reason in the future, China steps beyond these agreed norms, the rest of the international community should be prepared not only to say no resolutely, but also to act accordingly. Understandably, the international community will hedge to some extent against this possibility.
Fourth, the crucible for China's rising role in the world is of course the Asia-Pacific region. This is where the new regional institutions underpinned by shared international values will be needed to craft principles and practices of common security and common property for the future. In the past, Asia has had no such institutions with either the mandate or the membership to discharge this function. But with the expansion of the East Asia Summit last November to include the US (and Russia), we now have all the major powers of this region around a single table at summit level with an open mandate on political, economic and security issues. And this for the first time in Asia's history. Confidence-building and security-building measures, greater military transparency, common responses to natural disaster management (the greatest scourge for the peoples of the region) as well as common regional commitments to open economies and sustainable development are now possible.
For the first time, we have it within our grasp to fashion a credible, new Pax Pacifica – a multilateral, regional, rules-based order, anchored in the principles of the broader international system. And given China's expanding international role, the new Pax Pacifica may ultimately be translatable into a wider peace, should Washington's relative global power continue to decline. Importantly, at present, no one in Asia is seeking to replace Pax Americana with a Pax Sinica. Workable multilateral, rules-based orders are in a different category altogether, in which all legitimate stakeholders share responsibility for upholding the order.
It may seem unfashionable to some, but on balance I remain optimistic that we can see this great global and regional transformation unfold without degenerating into irreconcilable political/military conflict or war. Yet, regrettably, for those of us in Asia, European history offers a series of unhappy precedents.
From the wars of religion in the 16th century through to the fall of Berlin in 1945 and, if one agrees with some arguments, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Europe was a continent awash with blood as the rise of any new great power or new ideology (religious or secular) invariably resulted in protracted warfare, often on an industrial scale. Nonetheless, despite these tragedies, the relative success of the postwar European political project (the current financial crisis in the European Union notwithstanding) offers grounds for hope of how ancient conflicts can be subsumed to the more fundamental need for future co-operation.
Mine is not a starry-eyed optimism. I have lived in China, travelled in China and studied China in one capacity or another for most of my life. Like all civilisations, it reflects an accumulation of historical experiences, perceptions and achievements. But China's history does provide us with a reasonable basis for optimism. The China that I have studied over the decades is one that has not been in the business of invading other countries for more than 2,000 years. Nor has China sought to establish colonies around the world, even though its navigational skills and naval capabilities during the Ming Dynasty were considerably more advanced than those of countries in the west.
China's modern political consciousness has been badly seared by what the Chinese routinely and legitimately describe as a century of foreign humiliation, from the opium wars to the end of the Japanese occupation. China in effect remained internationally isolated for the first half of its communist history, and only in the past three decades has it begun to engage systematically the world once again. China today seeks respect in the eyes of the world for the contributions of its ancient civilisation and modern economy. These are all historical truths that we in the west can work with.
It remains an open question, however, whether China will democratise and whether it will in time respect relevant international covenants and their application to domestic human rights practice. All who are familiar with the country's development are equally familiar with the arguments for and against the likelihood of this coming to pass.
In the meantime, the challenge we all face (China included) is managing the rise of a non-democratic China as a great power within the framework of the international order. I believe there is sufficient common sense, common interest and, therefore, common purpose for these difficult decades ahead to be negotiated peacefully. It will require great statesmanship – statesmanship that must be based on rational engagement and not predicated on any form of appeasement. Success can never be guaranteed. It will require the highest levels of political engagement and thoughtful diplomacy that the world has seen since the end of the cold war. And then, should China through its own national means choose to become a democracy, all the better. However, to predicate our diplomacy in the immediate period ahead on such an assumption would be foolish indeed.
If we in the west can continue to work with liberalising elements within the Chinese system – to cause the country's leadership to conclude that their people's long-term interests lie within the current liberal, rules-based order, one that has served the international community reasonably well since the carnage of the Second World War – then we can succeed and, indeed, craft a truly Pacific century for us all.
Kevin Rudd was prime minister of Australia from 2007-2010 and foreign minister from 2010-2012
