Kashmir Birth Rate and Fertility Rate Data


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Aug 1, 2022
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Virtually all recent news articles suggest that Kashmir's birth rate has consistently fallen over the past two decades to well below replacement levels. Even in the Muslim dominant valley. The total fertility rate in Kashmir is 1.4, well below the Indian average of 2.0. The current Indian Muslim average is 2.4 (if you trust the official estimates that exclude many illegal Bangladeshis and Rohingyas).

Does anyone know why Kashmiri Muslims are reproducing at such lower rates than Indian Muslims? And drastically less than Pakistani Muslims (3.5 fertility rate)?

Jammu and Kashmir’s TFR was 3.6 in 1991. It fell to 2.3 in 2007 and later to 2. Now it is at 1.4.

Also, does the Kashmiri Valley really just have only one delivery hospital?

Valley’s lone maternity hospital records 34,500 male births, 31500 female births since 2019, say officials; In J&K, mothers prefer sons over daughters, reveals NHFS Survey. Well placed health officials revealed that around 34,500 male baby births were reported at Lal Ded Hospital in last three years while as the number of female baby births in the same period was around 31,500. In year 2020-21 the number of male births at the hospital was around 11,500, however, in the same period the number of female baby births was around 10,500.

The valley has a population of 4 million. In this hospital, they have 22,000 births each year. It is supposed to be the only maternity hospital in the valley. Even if some at-home births are not counted, these figures are very encouraging if true.

I found almost no articles that suggest any major undercounting. The below one covering 2001-2011 was the main outlier, but it is hard to believe as the source is a bit biased :)

Fertility Tables published by Census 2011 indicate that there were 85,157 live births in the Valley in the year preceding Census 2001. That number had risen to 176,673 in 2011.

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