Japan-India-Vietnam trilateral could be created for Indo-Pacific stability

Tshering22

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Without bowing down and got help from JP-US like in 1979, there is No chance for CN to defeat VN in any wars.

Thats why CN was annexed, raped and massarced in 100 years by Mongol and by Manchus in 300 years while VN simply defeated Mongol empire 3 times and defeat Manchus in just few days .:tongue:
There is one problem though; they know that their soldiers are useless these days, except for appearing in movie commercials and carrying out operations against ill-equipped Tibetans & Uyighurs. So their form of warfare will be non-contact; using artillery and stand-off weapons rather than sending their soyboys to the frontline.

VN better have a good plan to counter them for this. You cannot wage Cold War era style ambush warfare for non-contact combat.
 

no smoking

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Did I say ability?
I was talking about willingness.
That is laughable. Without ability, the willingness is BS.

The two are completely different. US willing to fight someone who targets their direct safety is a different thing. Especially when the country can hit back the US mainland. Do you really think the current America will be fighting China when the Chinese don't even touch the US troops?
holds your maximum debts.
Why don't I?
Over 60k American soldiers deploying over there and they had the treaty to protect Japanese in the worst case - WW3, only idiot will think otherwise.

Not when US mainland is vulnerable, and the aggressor to a third country is someone who holds your maximum debts.
First of all, it is childish to assume the most powerful country is a coward;
Secondly, your knowledge about US debt is completely wrong. One tip: Chinese only holds around 4% of US debt.
 

rockdog

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Without bowing down and got help from JP-US like in 1979, there is No chance for CN to defeat VN in any wars.

Thats why CN was annexed, raped and massarced in 100 years by Mongol and by Manchus in 300 years while VN simply defeated Mongol empire 3 times and defeat Manchus in just few days .:tongue:
Even in ancient time, the Chinese empires also calculated profit and loses for conquerings. Actually, China grabbed all the cultivatable lands in East Asia. There are only small part of Northern VN is worthy to rule. That's why the northern VN belonged to China for 1000 years, but after industrial time, it's not that worthy since China was relatively weak during 1840-1950.

1.jpg

* only this red circled area is cultivatable during ancitent time.


It's not VN that strong, it's just not worthy to rule. Just building tributary relationship was enough, you would check all your history books, they confessed that VN is tributary nation to China, and your king need to real kowtow to Chinese emperor, this is not offensive, just part of history.

Of course, you have to know Chinese charactors first, otherwise you even don't know your history since you can't read the books.

By building artificial islands in SCS and signed RECP, Chinese almost finished the integration with ASEAN nations, VN is very tiny part of RECP since China's GDP is 70% of whole RECP nations. China would easilly launches a border conflict with VN and all the investment will run away, and your people would only keep on selling young bride to China to survive like past 10 years. But this is not China's goal, China will do the same as last 1000 yrs did, control your culture and economic backbone, and make VN as part of "Made in China" supply chain. this is win-win siutation, which means China wins 1.5, VN wins 0.5, that's the good deal.
 
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VivaVietnamm

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There is one problem though; they know that their soldiers are useless these days, except for appearing in movie commercials and carrying out operations against ill-equipped Tibetans & Uyighurs. So their form of warfare will be non-contact; using artillery and stand-off weapons rather than sending their soyboys to the frontline.

VN better have a good plan to counter them for this. You cannot wage Cold War era style ambush warfare for non-contact combat.
Yes, we always have new plan to counter CN. For example, we send "fishing boats" to spy around CN's naval base in Hainan

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Suspected Vietnamese Maritime Militias Encircle China’s Hainan Island
Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights:

This document, printed by SCSPI, is protected by law. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is required from SCSPI to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use.
2020-02-03 | SCSPI
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For most Chinese people and a larger part of the international community, it might be shocking to hear that Vietnamese fishing vessels intrude into the undisputable internal waters, territorial seas and exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of China’s Hainan Island. For Hainan local people, however, this has been no news at all for many years. Sometimes, they can even be seen with distinctive profile by tourist on the beach of Hainan. There are some cases has been disposed and reported by China’s authority and media, but which have not attracted much attention.

On July 24 2005, around 130 Vietnamese fishing boats were operating near 537 fishing grounds about 30 nautical miles off Yulin base in Sanya, Hainan.(link is external)
On July 3 2014, China Coast Guard detained a Vietnamese fishing vessel and six crew members for illegally operation in seven nautical miles south of Sanya, Hainan’s territorial waters.(link is external)
......

The questions waiting to be answered include: how many Vietnamese fishing vessels intrude aforementioned waters each month and each year? What are their movement and activities?
To figure this out, in January 2020, the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) launched a project to track and monitor the movement of such Vietnamese fishing vessels, mainly based on commercial data of the Automatic Identification System (AIS), aiming to present truth and facts with details, and help scholars at home and abroad as well as the public to better understand this serious situation. In this project, we will regularly publish reports on the movement of Vietnamese fishing vessels in waters of Hainan. The following is the first report.
From January 19 to 31 of 2020, just in 12 days, a total of 34 Vietnamese fishing vessels (see the appendix for details) intruded into China’s internal waters, territorial seas and EEZs near the Hainan Island, and most of which were found within 12 nm of the Island. 30 of them gathered in the southeastern waters of the Hainan Island, rather than the northwest closer to Vietnam. In the picture below, green dots refer to the tracks of the Vietnamese fishing vessels as recorded by AIS. What is worth mentioning is that omissions are inevitable during data acquisition and analysis. In addition, it is reasonable to predict the real number and activites of such Vietnamese fishing vessels could only be even larger and more provocative considering that not all Vietnamese fishing vessels are equipped with AIS devices and which in some cases might be turned off as well.



There is no doubt that these Vietnamese fishing vessels are seriously violating China’s sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. Even worse, their activities seem to be purposely organized, likely being indulged by the Vietnamese government and relevant institutions. Generally, such activities of the Vietnamese fishing vessels can bring risks in two aspects:

First of all, such Vietnamese fishing vessels are suspected to be engaged in illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing which are banned by international laws. To tackle on IUU fishing, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) adopted the International Plan of Action to Prevent, Deter and Eliminate Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing (IPOA-IUU) in 2001 and demanded all states and international fisheries management organizations to implement the IPOA-IUU for protecting fishery resources. International organizations, mainly FAO, also compiled and developed matching rules and systems to regulate and restrain rampant IUU fishing. According to existing rules, IUU fishing is normally identified in non-disputed waters. In contested waters, however, fishing rights are unclear due to overlapping claims. Therefore, there is yet any consensus concerning the identification of IUU fishing.

When focusing on the aforementioned waters of Hainan Island, it is easy to see that China and Vietnam have managed to set a clear boundary in the Beibu Gulf to the west of the Hainan Island. As far as the east of the Hainan Island is concerned, it is not involved in any disputes in any case according to broadly accepted principles of delimitation. Despite disputes between the two countries over territorial and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea, the boundary is without any disputes regarding the waters near the Hainan Island, which is also fully recognised by Hanoi. The intruding Vietnamese fishing vessels should be identified as engaging in IUU fishing which severely violates China’s sovereignty and jurisdiction. Those fishing vessels which come into China’s internal waters and territorial seas are conducting violations in an even worse way. Currently, Vietnamese fishermen are fishing across the whole South China Sea resulting into the massive overcapacity in Vietnam’s fishery industry. Some of them might indeed come for fishing because of the rich fishery resources in waters of the Hainan Island.



Moreover and more seriously, these Vietnamese fishing vessels may come to China’s waters for special missions instead of fishing. The distribution of Vietnamese fishing vessels around the Hainan Island is extremely strange for they usually gather in the southeast of the Island, especially those areas close to the coastline near Sanya City and Lingshui Li Autonomous County. As we all know, these areas are homes to several naval and air bases. Words have long circulated among Hainan locals that Vietnamese militia members are aboard such fishing vessels for reconnaissance of China’s military bases and warships while they enter and leave ports. Which is proved by our statistical data indirectly: If for IUU fishing purpose only, it would make no sense to gather disproportionately and economically for Vietnamese fishing vessels to seek far and neglect what lies close , while fishery resources are relatively equally distributed between the south and east of the Hainan Island.



In September of 2019, some pictures online showing one Vietnamese fishing vessel’ s abnormally approaching to one Chinese Strategic Missile Nuclear Submarine in somewhere between Paracel Islands and Hainan, which are alleged to be taken by some Vietnamese fishing man.


Photo credit: DuanDang, Source: www.hisutton.com/Cn_Type-094_Incident.html(link is external)

As a great power, China does take more responsibilities for maintaining stability in the South China Sea. But this shall not be mistaken by other coastal states like Vietnam as their chances to act recklessly. Vietnam need give an appropriate and serious explanation to China and the international community for IUU fishing, or worse, the close-range reconnaissance by its fishing vessels in waters of the Hainan Island. It must practically take effective measures to regulate its fishing vessels to shoulder its responsibility as the country of registration.

Appendix
Detailed Information About Vietnamese Fishing Vessels’ Intruding Into Waters of Hainan Island from January 19 to 31, 2020




SCSPI

 

VivaVietnamm

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It's not VN that strong, it's just not worthy to rule.
Dude, when VN was under CN's rule, our population was just around 1 million , of course could not fighting against CN with population was at least 100 millions that time.

When out population was abt 4 to 5 millions, then that time we had enough men to kick CN out and even defeat mighty Mongol 3 times while 100 millions Han CNese were raped and massacred for 100 years bcs Han Cnese are very coward and always bow down to the stronger in history :lol:

So now, u understood why CN could rule VN for 1000 years, right ?? it just bcs our population was too small ( below1 million ) 1000 years ago

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From the Zhao Dynasty to the Southern and Northern Dynasties
After the Au Lac state was destroyed by Trieu Da in 179 BC, the territory and population of Vietnam were merged into the Chinese dynasties, so the census of Vietnam during this period must be based on historical records. in ancient Chinese bibliographies.

Trieu Da divided the old Au Lac territory into 2 districts of Giao Chi and Cuu Chan (Vietnam now). Below the county level there are no other administrative units. History books record that in these two districts there were 600,000 inhabitants during the Trieu period.

 
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VivaVietnamm

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[URL='https://defenceforumindia.com/goto/post?id=2130485' said:
rockdog[/URL]] China would easilly launches a border conflict with VN and all the investment will run away, and your people would only keep on selling young bride to China to survive like past 10 years.
We all know CN love to sell their women to please their White master, btw Stop abusing women in Defence forum :lol

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Chairman Mao proposed sending 10 million Chinese women to US: documents
By P. Parameswaran
February 13, 2008 — 3.20pm


Chinese leader Mao Zedong proposed sending 10 million Chinese women to the United States, in talks with top envoy Henry Kissinger in 1973, according to documents released Tuesday.

The powerful chairman of the Chinese Communist Party said he believed such emigration could kickstart bilateral trade but could also "harm" the United States with a population explosion similar to China, according to documents released Tuesday by the State Department on US-China ties between 1973 to 1976.

In a long conversation that stretched way past midnight at Mao's residence on February 17, 1973, the cigar-chomping Chinese leader referred to the dismal trade between the two countries, saying China was a "very poor country" and "what we have in excess is women."

He first suggested sending "thousands" of women but as an afterthought proposed "10 million," drawing laughter at the meeting, also attended by Chinese premier Zhou Enlai.
 
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rockdog

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Dude, when VN was under CN's rule, our population was just around 1 million , of course could not fighting against CN with population was at least 100 millions that time.

When out population was abt 4 to 5 millions, then that time we had enough men to kick CN out and even defeat mighty Mongol 3 times while 100 millions Han CNese were raped and massacred for 100 years bcs Han Cnese are very coward and always bow down to the stronger in history :lol:

So now, u understood why CN could rule VN for 1000 years, right ?? it just bcs our population was too small ( below1 million ) 1000 years ago

---------
From the Zhao Dynasty to the Southern and Northern Dynasties
After the Au Lac state was destroyed by Trieu Da in 179 BC, the territory and population of Vietnam were merged into the Chinese dynasties, so the census of Vietnam during this period must be based on historical records. in ancient Chinese bibliographies.

Trieu Da divided the old Au Lac territory into 2 districts of Giao Chi and Cuu Chan (Vietnam now). Below the county level there are no other administrative units. History books record that in these two districts there were 600,000 inhabitants during the Trieu period.

I don't think ancient Chinese ever ruled southern part, only northern part. Again, VN is quite small in population and power, ruling or not ruling is really not that important.

Sometimes hatre is not the most humiliation, but ignoring. Trung Sisters are your national hero in history, but the General Ma Yuan, who putting down rebellions of the Trung Sisters even not quit mentioned in our school textbook. And General Ma's VN operation is just very small part of his glories.

Same attitude applied to China now, we are integrating RCEP now, don't give a shit about VN like or not.
 

VivaVietnamm

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I don't think ancient Chinese ever ruled southern part, only northern part. Again, VN is quite small in population and power, ruling or not ruling is really not that important.

Sometimes hatre is not the most humiliation, but ignoring. Trung Sisters are your national hero in history, but the General Ma Yuan, who putting down rebellions of the Trung Sisters even not quit mentioned in our school textbook. And General Ma's VN operation is just very small part of his glories.

Same attitude applied to China now, we are integrating RCEP now, don't give a shit about VN like or not.
Bcs CN-Mongol and later Manchus failed to conquer VN, thats why Han Cnese have to keep living in barren-useless lands that can't grow anything in winter. Thats why CN's birth rate keep dropping fast due to hundred million Cnese dont have enough money for food and raising kids like in N.Korea. :lol:

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China’s population up less than half a million in 2021, births plunge again as crisis deepens

Mainland China’s overall population increased to 1.4126 billion last year, but ‘shocking’ national growth rate hits record low of 0.34 per thousand

Chinese mothers gave birth to 10.62 million babies last year, an 11.5 per cent drop from 2020


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Orange Wang and Luna Sun

Published: 10:03am, 17 Jan, 2022

Mainland China’s population increased by less than half a million last year, and the number of births also dropped for the fifth consecutive year in 2021, data released on Monday showed.



China’s overall population increased by about 480,000 people – to 1.4126 billion in 2021, from 1.412 billion a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed. The population includes China’s 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, as well as servicemen, but excludes foreigners. It does not include Hong Kong, Macau or Taiwan.



Chinese mothers gave birth to 10.62 million babies last year, an 11.5 per cent drop from 12 million in 2020, the NBS confirmed. The national birth rate fell to a record low of 7.52 births for every 1,000 people in 2021, from 8.52 in 2020.



The national death rate was 7.18 per thousand last year, putting the national growth rate at 0.34 per thousand.



“The most shocking part of the data release today is that the natural growth of the population has dropped to 0.34 per thousand, the first time below 1.0 since data become available,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “The demographic challenge is well known, but the speed of population ageing is clearly faster than expected.



“This suggests China’s total population may have reached its peak in 2020. It also indicates China’s potential growth is likely slowing faster than expected.”

Chen Wei, a professor with the Population Development Studies Centre at Renmin University, said: “In the next 10 to 20 years, China’s natural population growth will not continue to decline, but will fluctuate around zero and see small drops, but there will not be rapid decreases.”


Earlier this month, Henan province, the country’s third-most-populous administrative region, reported that its number of newborns fell to 920,000 in 2020 – a 23.3 per cent decline from 2019 – as the provincial birth rate dropped to 9.24 births per 1,000 people.

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z3116356645950_43513f5688121b0b076841ac7487f28f.jpg



“The pandemic has caused some people to lose their jobs or suffer pay cuts,” said He Yafu, an independent demographer. “A decrease in household income, in addition to the uncertainties that the pandemic has added to the future, further lowered young people’s willingness to give birth.”



Experts have warned that a demographic turning point may be just around the corner in the world’s most populous nation, and some say it threatens to erode the foundation of China’s booming economic growth over the past 40 years.

Beijing has already taken steps to curb the trend, such as by allowing couples to have a third child and by trying to reduce abortions for “non-medical” purposes.



Dozens of provincial and municipal authorities have also introduced their own initiatives to bump up fertility. These include giving parents more days off work, or even financial support, for having a second or third child.

China’s young women say they don’t need kids to win at life, defying Beijing


“China’s total population will remain above 1.4 billion for a period of time to come,” said Ning Jizhe, deputy head of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, the nation’s top economic planner. He added that the three-child policy is expected to gradually add births, while the national life expectancy is gradually increasing.

Additional demographic figures released on Monday include a year-on-year increase of 12.05 million permanent residents in urban areas, to 914.25 million. Meanwhile, there was a 11.57 million decrease in rural permanent residents, to 498.35 million.



“The share of urban population in the total population (urbanisation rate) was 64.72 per cent – 0.83 percentage points higher than that at the end of the previous year,” the NBS statement said.



China’s so-called “floating population”, featuring mostly migrant workers, reached 384.67 million in 2021, 8.85 million more than in 2020. And the population living in areas other than where they hold household registration, for at least six months, reached 504.29 million, or 11.53 million more than in 2020.

z3116356645950_43513f5688121b0b076841ac7487f28f.jpg
 

sorcerer

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Japan, Philippines seek pact to further defense cooperation

TOKYO — Japan and the Philippines agreed Saturday to start talks toward a possible defense agreement that would allow closer cooperation between their militaries amid regional tensions with China and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
 

Hari Sud

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Japan, Philippines seek pact to further defense cooperation

TOKYO — Japan and the Philippines agreed Saturday to start talks toward a possible defense agreement that would allow closer cooperation between their militaries amid regional tensions with China and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
‘Critical to all these pacts and defence co-operation etc. including QUAD it is India’s participation which is important. If a war situation develops and Chinese threaten or invade countries on its rim from Japan to Singapore then India comes into the picture. It could block oil Supples and close trade and Chinese economy would come to a grinding halt. India has a Navy which can do it. that Navy is not built on copied and reverse engineered technology. All Indian Navy ships are real and aggressive once they make up their mind to act.

Hence my point is that any East Asia understanding between small countries is incomplete without India as a major participant.
 

Tshering22

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‘Critical to all these pacts and defense co-operation etc. including QUAD it is India’s participation which is important. If a war situation develops and the Chinese threaten or invade countries on its rim from Japan to Singapore then India comes into the picture. It could block oil supplies and close trade and the Chinese economy would come to a grinding halt. India has a Navy which can do it. that Navy is not built on copied and reverse-engineered technology. All Indian Navy ships are real and aggressive once they make up their mind to act.

Hence my point is that any East Asia understanding between small countries is incomplete without India as a major participant.
Japan needs a more independent foreign policy, man. Without that this India-Vietnam-Japan-Philippines QUAD is difficult.

The Philippines is rightfully angry but doesn't have the stomach or the firepower.
Vietnam has the right attitude and history but needs more firepower.
Japan has the money but no appetite for even standing up for themselves, let alone anything close to a fight.
We have a little bit of everything but are hesitant to do what it takes.

In the coming years, we have to do whatever it takes to strengthen this partnership and take lead.
 

Angel of War

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Japan needs a more independent foreign policy, man. Without that this India-Vietnam-Japan-Philippines QUAD is difficult.

The Philippines is rightfully angry but doesn't have the stomach or the firepower.
Vietnam has the right attitude and history but needs more firepower.
Japan has the money but no appetite for even standing up for themselves, let alone anything close to a fight.
We have a little bit of everything but are hesitant to do what it takes.

In the coming years, we have to do whatever it takes to strengthen this partnership and take lead.
What's the possibility of South Korea cooperating With QUAD to tackle chinese expansionism .
 

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