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One thing our space program lacked was a vision that would excite our common public
Our space program was not made to excite people. It was nothing more than a poor county's effort to develop satellite technologies for cheap as west was charging high and had already isolated us for nuclear program. Space exploration wasn't even a thing in ISRO's programs until Vajpayee's rise.

Someone from 2000 can only wonder how swiftly we got into race from nothing at all.
People don't hate failures, people hate when others make excuses for not trying at all.
Nobody is talking about failures but no amount of motivation will make a primary student crack a Ph. D exam. He needs his time and so does ISRO.

You really need to study required technologies, capital, cycle time and history of these technologies during space race between US & USSR.
This is what spaceX has achieved, giving people something to inspire too and working hard towards the goal. Currently i doubt even ISRO knows what it stands for, they will repeat the same quote from Dr. Vikram Sarabhai, i get it but people don't care.
SpaceX like any other western private company has awesome PR. It making base on moon even with NASA's help in next 10 years is a wet dream.
Gaganyaan is good but there's nothing more powerful which is also achievable within the decade than landing Indians on a literal Moon and having a Moon Base by 2030, an Indian Lunar Base.
That's achievable only provided that calendar time is slowed down to 2.5 years in one. Just capability to throw away things in space is not enough.
You give the people that this is what we want to achieve and this is how we are going to achieve, now next thing is you share your progress and government should pour the money, 20billions in the span of 10 years for a single goal is not a bad quote.
Sorry, that was cute!!:playball:
$20 billions won't be enough to sustain Gaganyaan+Indian Space Station alone. Even India's defense budget may fall short and delivering in time is just a pipe dream.

For Lunar station,
  • An average super heavy cargo rocket would require $3-5 billions per launch. A reusable one might go cheaper but we are yet to develop either of them.
  • Need soft landing capabilities for spacecrafts and unmanned docking capabilities for space and lunar surface. We don't have experience or capability of either too. A small LEO docking mission (SPADEX) and soft landing (Chandrayaan-3) are just in planning stage. Advanced rendezvous docking and robotics are at primitive stages in most countries (not just India). Only somehow building a modular space station is a demonstration of proper docking capabilities. And till date, only Chandrayaan-2 was our only proper robotic spacecraft ever went to space.
  • Need communication and data relay. We need at least one selenostationary communication satellite on moon and at least two lunar data relay satellites on moon again for continous communication and then a earth space station or a big network of data relay satellites on earth. We are even struggling to launch two earth based data relay satellites for Gaganyaan and Indian space station project. We have not even conducted SPADEX.
  • Manned interplanetary missions require certain degree of training of astronauts (orbitals hours) in earth orbit just like a pilot needs certain continuity flying hours to remain battle fit and even a welder welding submarines and ships in a dock needs continual experience for qualification. We are ZERO!! Only conducting Gaganyaan will earn us some hours and training on Indian space station will help us understand medical science in outer orbits. That's what Russia and China is doing and US is doing again.
  • What on moon? Materials to bind soil? Digging, building basements and hardening shelters against asteroids (which is beyond human capability right now). And hey, how would you fly back from there. Will you launch and waste a $4-5 billions Gemini like spacecraft to fly back everytime or will you make a rocket launch pad there? And all these things; building a mini city will be done by just AI robots (LOL) and they will be super cheap too. (LOL LOL)? Landing humans there is more realistic than it.:rofl:
Only two countries in world have ability to build a little outpost on moon in next 15-20 years that even only if they collaborate; US & Russia. US has to train astronauts and Russia doesn't have capital to develop SHLV.

China & India are just publishing concepts and EU & Japan aren't even going into it further on own. Stop reading too many fan articles.
You don't throw just anything in space in name of "trying". If you don't have a plan and not executing as per it, you are not trying. You are just playing and wasting resources rather than using them at correct time.
Now let's just think about for the sake of the argument, we have sce200 ready and probably test is complete
and now they are going to flight test it on gslv mk3, it's alright and next thing then need is to strap more of these engines together and create s400 and then s90 (I am not sure about this still reading on it) and we already have c32 which can be upgraded pretty easily i assume and if we go into full mission mode we can achieve SHLV within 6 to 7 years considering we got the Engines which is the most crucial part next thing is just creating a structure around it.
No we don't. Ground tests are yet to happen and after them suborbital and orbital tests will take place with multiple stages and configurations with intervals of many years between every launch.

It will easily take 2027-28 to develop an Indian HLV in the league of Delta-IV heavy, CZ-5 and Ariane 5 which is essential for our space station, missions to Jupiter and beyond, heavy missions to earth orbit, moon & Mars. Even Indian space station might not appear in 2030. SHLV at best will achieve its detailed design phase till 2030.

Failures, production delays and rectification of anomalies etc. things are everywhere what brought LVM3 from 2006 to 2014 and if we count such things in this, we aren't doing any human or robotic settlement on moon before 2050.

DoS administration quite much knows about realistic timelines and they have made it clear that GSLV Mk3 will fly with SCE-200 only after Gaganyaan mission. Not before 2025 even if I make a stupid assumption that they will take no time to mate new engine in GSLV Mk3 (that should take years).
Things just don't work straight as in SM comments nor do scientists get anything out of motivational quotes nor do production machines stop undergoing maintenance.
 

FalconZero

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Our space program was not made to excite people. It was nothing more than a poor county's effort to develop satellite technologies for cheap as west was charging high and had already isolated us for nuclear program. Space exploration wasn't even a thing in ISRO's programs until Vajpayee's rise.

Someone from 2000 can only wonder how swiftly we got into race from nothing at all.

Nobody is talking about failures but no amount of motivation will make a primary student crack a Ph. D exam. He needs his time and so does ISRO.

You really need to study required technologies, capital, cycle time and history of these technologies during space race between US & USSR.

SpaceX like any other western private company has awesome PR. It making base on moon even with NASA's help in next 10 years is a wet dream.

That's achievable only provided that calendar time is slowed down to 2.5 years in one. Just capability to throw away things in space is not enough.

Sorry, that was cute!!:playball:
$20 billions won't be enough to sustain Gaganyaan+Indian Space Station alone. Even India's defense budget may fall short and delivering in time is just a pipe dream.

For Lunar station,
  • An average super heavy cargo rocket would require $3-5 billions per launch. A reusable one might go cheaper but we are yet to develop either of them.
  • Need soft landing capabilities for spacecrafts and unmanned docking capabilities for space and lunar surface. We don't have experience or capability of either too. A small LEO docking mission (SPADEX) and soft landing (Chandrayaan-3) are just in planning stage. Advanced rendezvous docking and robotics are at primitive stages in most countries (not just India). Only somehow building a modular space station is a demonstration of proper docking capabilities. And till date, only Chandrayaan-2 was our only proper robotic spacecraft ever went to space.
  • Need communication and data relay. We need at least one selenostationary communication satellite on moon and at least two lunar data relay satellites on moon again for continous communication and then a earth space station or a big network of data relay satellites on earth. We are even struggling to launch two earth based data relay satellites for Gaganyaan and Indian space station project. We have not even conducted SPADEX.
  • Manned interplanetary missions require certain degree of training of astronauts (orbitals hours) in earth orbit just like a pilot needs certain continuity flying hours to remain battle fit and even a welder welding submarines and ships in a dock needs continual experience for qualification. We are ZERO!! Only conducting Gaganyaan will earn us some hours and training on Indian space station will help us understand medical science in outer orbits. That's what Russia and China is doing and US is doing again.
  • What on moon? Materials to bind soil? Digging, building basements and hardening shelters against asteroids (which is beyond human capability right now). And hey, how would you fly back from there. Will you launch and waste a $4-5 billions Gemini like spacecraft to fly back everytime or will you make a rocket launch pad there? And all these things; building a mini city will be done by just AI robots (LOL) and they will be super cheap too. (LOL LOL)? Landing humans there is more realistic than it.:rofl:
Only two countries in world have ability to build a little outpost on moon in next 15-20 years that even only if they collaborate; US & Russia. US has to train astronauts and Russia doesn't have capital to develop SHLV.

China & India are just publishing concepts and EU & Japan aren't even going into it further on own. Stop reading too many fan articles.
You don't throw just anything in space in name of "trying". If you don't have a plan and not executing as per it, you are not trying. You are just playing and wasting resources rather than using them at correct time.


No we don't. Ground tests are yet to happen and after them suborbital and orbital tests will take place with multiple stages and configurations with intervals of many years between every launch.

It will easily take 2027-28 to develop an Indian HLV in the league of Delta-IV heavy, CZ-5 and Ariane 5 which is essential for our space station, missions to Jupiter and beyond, heavy missions to earth orbit, moon & Mars. Even Indian space station might not appear in 2030. SHLV at best will achieve its detailed design phase till 2030.

Failures, production delays and rectification of anomalies etc. things are everywhere what brought LVM3 from 2006 to 2014 and if we count such things in this, we aren't doing any human or robotic settlement on moon before 2050.

DoS administration quite much knows about realistic timelines and they have made it clear that GSLV Mk3 will fly with SCE-200 only after Gaganyaan mission. Not before 2025 even if I make a stupid assumption that they will take no time to mate new engine in GSLV Mk3 (that should take years).
Things just don't work straight as in SM comments nor do scientists get anything out of motivational quotes nor do production machines stop undergoing maintenance.
I am btfo'd.

The budget and maturity of the system was a bit sidelined by me to just shill my idea but if we think about it USA managed to land in a decade on Moon with way lesser tech that time, if they could do it then we can do it considering we already have an engine. ISRO should make SHLV a priority and create a human rated version of this within the span let's give 7 years, 3 years should be suffice for subsequent system launches using other rockets. Pretty sure HLV-E2 will be ready by that time, pic related.
SLide (34).png

From C24 -> C32 -> C34 (A pretty easy upgrade)
SC120 -> SC200 (We already have SCE200, last news we got was that tank was supplied by HAL already for SC120)
S250 is easy.
E2 is pretty achievable by 2024 which can fulfill most of the needs of the isro.

Meanwhile working on HLV -> human rated and SHLV can be run parallely in different priority with higher budget (20 billion usd) and maybe in next 7 years we can see SHLV from Which is basically E1 on steroids, we don't need to bother with VTVL at all that can be taken as an offshoot of HLV program parallely, point being with enough money flowing we can sustain the parallel development of 'HLV' rockets. And once ready, just throw stuff at Moon.

For soft landing, we already should have learned a lot from the lunar rover programs let's say CY-3 and CY-4 by that time.
------------------------------

I am not going to contest your points, i understand the practical limitations and aware that it was pretty fanbois of me to write that but lowkey i wish we set a goal like that and pour money into that...i really don't care much about landing rather just our honest aggressive pursuit towards making a lunar space base as soon as possible (my fanois timeline was 10 years similar to Apollo program).

China and Russia and EU will most likely work together on moon base. USA has spaceX so they got little less things to worry about. The idea of moon base seems good because moon is perfect place to as a interstellar docking place, easy to lift off from there to different planets compared to gravity of earth, lower requirement of delta v on moon so on. Also, because Moon is a perfect place to build a ELTs.

PS, appreciate your detailed response, i didn't expect anyone to take that post seriously honestly speaking.
 

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but if we think about it USA managed to land in a decade on Moon with way lesser tech that time, if they could do it then we can do it considering we already have an engine.
No, we don't have that type of engine. We are still researching on something what US & Soviet Union have played with and thrown away decades ago.

Cold War era was a different case. That was like a full blown war where they used invest like $100 billions of equivalents of today, every year to add up and show off capabilities. 100-300 launches every year, car like assembly lines for spacecrafts and rockets, dead astronauts (and hiding those incidents) and scientists, doctors and engineers working 24*7 like sweatshop factory workers. They opnened, finished, closed, cancelled and retired more launch vehicles every decade than we have created till date. Just compare US & USSR list with China, India & Japan here.

Their experience with many open & black projects where even historically cancelled designs like Sky Dragon and UR-900 may find utilities in future.
ISRO should make SHLV a priority and create a human rated version of this within the span let's give 7 years, 3 years should be suffice for subsequent system launches using other rockets. Pretty sure HLV-E2 will be ready by that time, pic related.
SHLV can be run parallely in different priority with higher budget (20 billion usd) and maybe in next 7 years we can see SHLV
I don't like to contradict you over & over but this simplistic convincing approach (as if nothing new is to do there and things will just happen smoothly), is naive. If things were that simple as said, India would have AMCA inducted in 2017 and landed humans on moon in 2020.
  1. ISRO doesn't have a "should" in entire game. Making a moon base is not a "should" for ISRO as they don't even have enough listed experiments. They are not in a race that they can land first. They will just do things chronologically. Government doesn't feel an urge and "should" to prioritise a moon base over urgent needs. Requirements would alwaw come before fan projects.
  2. No, just a span of "7 years" (taken out of hot air) will not be sufficient for ISRO. Talking common sense, designing a completely new rocket with new engine and stages on a new design instead of basing iton GSLV MkII or MKIII will add up more time. So, 5-7 years minimum for designing and next 2-3 decades to develop components and rocket. You will only get upset later with such hypothetical estimates. You can't make anything just by setting timeline and budget for it either. You need steps. :rolleyes: Oh, you will have to build new vehicle assembly building and launch pads and new jigs and new factories for rocket production because its a parallel rocket, completely different from others. You can't use existing stocks in it.
  3. Total number of people working in space industry (from scientists to factory workers) in India doesn't exceed 50,000 (and 17-18,000 of them work in ISRO alone). How come all of a sudden, the people who together produce a GSLV MK-III in 2-3 years will discover an SHLV? If they could they would have long ago. GSLV wouldn't have failed for a decade.
China and Russia and EU will most likely work together on moon base. USA has spaceX so they got little less things to worry about.
US doesn't have SpaceX. SpaceX has USA and initial support from NASA. NASA is still like a sleeping dragon for which futuristic projects of modern world are just museum things.
 

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IMO ISRO should be working on something like this, they should start with a clean slate and design a modern yet achievable partially re-usable medium lift vehicle. The current strategy of slow incremental improvement on decades old designs while showing PPTs of ramjet scramjet wet dream RLV isn't going to cut it. I think US is launching something in the order of 50x the payload to space every year compared to ISROs best year, and China is not too far either. The current tregectory is simply not good enough if we aim to be a relevant player strategically in space.

 

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S. Somanath | At the helm of India’s space research
One of his top priorities will be the ‘Gaganyaan’, India's ambitious push to put a human crew in space. ISRO hopes that the mission would help lay the robust foundation for a sustainable human space flight programme in the long run. Development of a Reusable Launch Vehicle, the semi-cryogenic engine and the keenly-awaited Chandrayaan-3 and Aditya-L1 missions are some of the projects awaiting his immediate attention.
 

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IMO ISRO should be working on something like this, they should start with a clean slate and design a modern yet achievable partially re-usable medium lift vehicle. The current strategy of slow incremental improvement on decades old designs while showing PPTs of ramjet scramjet wet dream RLV isn't going to cut it. I think US is launching something in the order of 50x the payload to space every year compared to ISROs best year, and China is not too far either. The current tregectory is simply not good enough if we aim to be a relevant player strategically in space.

I only know about Chinese SHLV CZ-9. Are there any Chinese projects similar to these US ventures too?
 

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I only know about Chinese SHLV CZ-9. Are there any Chinese projects similar to these US ventures too?
Sorry i don't follow it as closely anymore, the Long March rockets are still mostly "old school" but the are launching quite a few of them. The have a few private players who are trying the VTVL 1st stage reuse (Falcon 9 copy) - now that SpaceX has shown this works all Chinese (and everyone else) have to do is copy it. Chinese have kept pace in number of launches with the US, but nowhere close to payload (since each F9 starlink launches ~16T which is bonkers compared to "old space") bit they will reach that level in 5 years if not less.
 
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Sorry i don't follow it as closely anymore, the Long March rockets are still mostly "old school" but the are launching quite a few of them. The have a few private players who are trying the VTVL 1st stage reuse (Falcon 9 copy) - now that SpaceX has shown this works all Chinese (and everyone else) have to do is copy it. Chinese have kept pace in number of launches with the US, but nowhere close to payload (since each F9 starlink launches ~16T which is bonkers compared to "old space") bit they will reach that level in 5 years if not less.
Design and Looks wise there is nothing much to talk about Chinese rockets. They looks plain old school.
But they have managed to up the launch capacity in weight to various orbits and no of launches per year.

2021 broke the record of Highest no of launch attempts to orbit and highest no of successful launches. We also now need to scale up.
 

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Sorry i don't follow it as closely anymore, the Long March rockets are still mostly "old school" but the are launching quite a few of them. The have a few private players who are trying the VTVL 1st stage reuse (Falcon 9 copy) - now that SpaceX has shown this works all Chinese (and everyone else) have to do is copy it. Chinese have kept pace in number of launches with the US, but nowhere close to payload (since each F9 starlink launches ~16T which is bonkers compared to "old space") bit they will reach that level in 5 years if not less.
So clearly there are no Chinese ventures similar to American space Inc. as I asked you. US anyway holds an industrial capacity for 100+ launches. PRC has a long away to go. India will take even longer.
 

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