I agree they won't invade when the society's fragmentation is incomplete.
They WILL invade if there's a popular uprising by the public in the initialisation of which US and Israel may or may not have a hand.
Don't ignore the nuclear factor. Iran can't be allowed to go nuclear, no matter what. This is something I totally believe in even if I don't like USA's warring nature.
In fact, warring with Iran to stop it is a much more honest and justified war than any the US has engaged in, in the past.
Definitely more justified than Iraq's invasion.
But you see, the very reason Iran is even progressing towards nuclear capability is because of Israel. The only reason tensions exist between USA and Iran and the reason Iran is developing nuclear weapons is because Israel has already got those. And they already know that USA will break every law in the book to side with Israel against them, like they did with Iraq.
For example, look at this:
What is this? This is CIA redacting US nuclear materials theft from Israel spymaster Rafael "Rafi" Eitan’s released profile.
All this goes back to the time President Richard Nixon first promised Israeli Prime Minster Golda Meier never to publicly discuss Israel’s nuclear weapons. What happened though put a wrench in those plans.
US Senators Stuart Symington and John Glenn (both of whom were actually knowledgeable and competent; Symington had served as Secretary of the Air Force and was a respected Senator on Foreign Policy issues while John Glenn was the first American to orbit the Earth) learned that Israel (with help from some proxies in the US) in the 1960s diverted enough US weapons grade uranium from the government contractor NUMEC to build a dozen bombs.
Outraged that nothing was being done about it, the senators complicated presidential "strategic ambiguity" by amending US foreign assistance laws to stop aid to nuclear weapons countries that were not signatories to the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Israel and its US surrogates and lobbyists responded by lobbying incoming presidencies to ignore the law and commit in writing to upholding nuclear ambiguity. In 2012 the Obama administration passed a gag regulation forbidding any US federal agency employee or contractor from discussing Israel’s nuclear weapons.
The regulation severely restricts agency responses to Freedom of Information Act requests about Israel’s nuclear weapons activities. For example, Israeli spymaster Rafel "Rafi" Eitan’s covert operations team infiltrated the NUMEC facility in 1968, the year of some of its most stunning losses. In closed briefings to top agency officials, CIA has never wavered in its conclusion that Israel – with the help of chemist Zalman Shapiro who ran the plant – diverted material to fuel Israel’s nuclear weapons development.
After Eitan died in March of 2019, a great deal of formerly classified information about his exploits against America, which included running Jonathan Pollard, should have become available since privacy claims no longer prevailed. Why is such information continuing to receive protection? If multiple US government agencies reveal that the US has long known Israel has a nuclear weapons program, it raises uncomfortable questions about amount of foreign aid illegally delivered to Israel.
S
ince Symington and Glenn became law, the US has transferred nearly a quarter of a trillion dollars in publicly known foreign assistance to Israel, and additional billions in covert assistance.
One of the principal tasks of Israel’s US lobby is delivering enough campaign contributions to US politicians that upholding the law remains unthinkable. This has been a winning strategy but also makes the power of Israel’s lobbyists in the US increasingly visible and the subject of scorn and derision. However, not even the continually lobby-maligned members of the squad have dared to uphold Symington & Glenn to block US aid to Israel, which they could easily do.
Meanwhile, Israel and its lobbyists have continued to feed Americans a rich platter of justifications for invading Iran on the excuse that it is on the verge of introducing the very weapons to the Middle East that Israel itself deployed long ago!
So, consider Iran's position for a minute:
Here is the USA, which has the strongest military in the world, allowing Iran's sworn enemy to
-steal nuclear materials from the US.
-kill their own soldiers and then get away with it (USS Liberty).
-Weapons are sold to Israel at steeply discounted "prices."
-The US stores in Israel "its own" military ammo and fuel and spare parts, which is available to Israel. Thus, Israel's fuel and ammo and spare parts reserves are entirely paid for by the US; this amounts to billions of dollars, a huge benefit.
-Aid is given as a cash grant long before it is spent, so they get the interest on it too.
-They get huge tax breaks, on customs duties and on income tax shelters. For example, Americans don't pay income tax for working in Israel, when they do for working in all other countries.
-They get loan guarantees, so they can do private borrowing at steeply discounted rates, the risk being carried by the American taxpayer.
-They get trade advantages from the customs regulations on foreign countries too, as Egypt gets to export to America duty free only when it includes 10% Israeli content.
-Aid to Israel is hidden all through the budget and in the terms of every deal.
AND ALL OF IT is ILLEGAL under the Symington Amendment!
Plus, when you take into account the Samson Option. Israel's "We go down, we take all of you with us" policy. Their nukes are not aimed just towards Iran or Mecca or those places. EVERY EUROPEAN CAPITAL is a target. Paris, London, Berlin and so on. If all the Western countries refuse to help Israel in a war, and it is about to lose, it will exercise the Samson option and blow up all those countries. Nuclear blackmail; to ensure that the West always supports Israel no matter what.
If you are the leader of Iran and you see all this, what would you do other than try to go nuclear yourself?
how military Wargames simulated
