Turning into a frog
- Mar 30, 2009
Iran isn't Afghanistan or even Iraq. If US decides to really try a military option in Iran, they will burn their hands worse than ever.Why yes, they do care.
They may not care about Afghanistan but they do care about the Central Asian region. It's never about Taliban or ISIS or Al Qaeda. Those are just the lubricants for the thrust of the US Military into the region.
It's about influence.
With Iran ramping up it's nuclear efforts, I reckon US will find another bottle of lube lying around by 2026 or later. Israelis will also find an incredible boost in ME if Iran is knocked out of the equation in Gaza, West Bank and Lebanon. Egypt already pledged neutrality for Sinai after Yom Kippur War and Jordan has always been reluctant to fight Israel. Let's not even think Syria factors in. (I mention this because the Jewish lobby in America is very strong, deeply entrenched and fkin badass.)
Lots of factors at play here but if US can take Iran, it'll have a very strong influence in the Central Asian region, notwithstanding the decay in economy.
There are cooler heads in Saudi Arabia than in Iran in the establishment, that's the level of radicalisation among the authorities.
Civilians are liberal but the authority is a stark contrast in Iran. It's rather unimaginable for MBS to order a nuke on another nation but (Won't consider Raisi because he's rather new) Khomeini totally would've nuked someone if he could.
No one wants a 9th nuclear nation. Especially an Islamic one.
In fact, Khomeinis in Iran can't be happier about that. The Iranians are gradually getting antsy against the Islamic rule and the cracks are getting bigger. Nothing can seal those cracks faster than an invasion by kafir shaitans of the fatherland.
US can bomb many of the infra in Iran to smithereens, but they would have to be really really stupid to put boots on the ground. Also, I don't expect Russia to keep quiet in such case either. Russia didn't allow Syria to fall. So if anyone thinks it will allow Iran to fall and leave its own future in risk by giving complete control over global oil resources to the western powers, he is mistaken.
Also, in current day, US has just lost its respect and I will be surprised if any positive response would come from people in USA regarding another military intervention. The radical left and most of the young dumb voters of DNC are completely against USA's military intervention anywhere in the world and they want the trillions paid to the war efforts to be diverted back to lessening their own college loan burden, pay for universal medicare, pay for migrants and what not. The humongous expense of invasion of Iran could never be justified with anything as Iran simply isn't making any big waves that can justify the invasion. Most of the 'intelligence' can be argued as fictitious just as chemical weapon of Iraq.
Also, I don't see senile Biden's whole group has the balls to take on a project as big as Iran.
So, I don't see Iran invasion in cards anytime soon.