Is India facing food shortage?

Minghegy

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I read a news, in 2005-2009 India's grain yield grew 3%, but in the same time the population grew 6%, we know when young people grow up they will eat more food.

Now poor people still have one meal per day, it seems climatic anomaly will be normal all over the world in future, and inflation caused by food shortage is happening. Good news is India is seeking international cooperation (USA) on this issue, but distant water can't quench a present thirst.

http://www.ifpri.org/publication/2009-global-hunger-index
At this page, you can see India's hungry index is 23.9, India is on the edge of Extremely Alarming.

Hope India solve this issue..=i+
 

Minghegy

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China's rice expert Yuan LongPing developed hybrid rice (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_rice)
The hybrid rice highly increases China's food production, hybrid rice doesn't need modified its gene, so it's very safe.
Chinese believe Yuan LongPing is a real hero if China.
 

tarunraju

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India isn't facing a food shortage. However, commodities such as wheat are literally rotting in government godowns, yet it's not being distributed, or used to cool down sky-rocketing essential food prices. Opposition political parties claim that it's an artificial inflation to fleece the people.

For example, I could buy table sugar for 15 INR (around 2 RMB) per kilogram in early-2009, which has now become 35 INR (around 5 RMB) per kilogram.
 
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Minghegy

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India isn't facing a food shortage. However, commodities such as wheat are literally rotting in government godowns, yet it's not being distributed, or used to cool down sky-rocketing essential food prices. Opposition political parties claim that it's an artificial inflation to fleece the people.

For example, I could buy table sugar for 15 INR (around 2 RMB) per kilogram in early-2009, which has now become 35 INR (around 5 RMB) per kilogram.
Chinese news said the India inflation of food is 16.9% in June. I also searched China inflation of food is 5.9% in May.
Maybe it's propaganda from China government, haha.

i want you to quote the official figures released by the government of india on the agriculture growth in india for financial years:
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
You mean more than 3%?
 

tarunraju

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Chinese news said the India inflation of food is 16.9% in June.
Yes, that figure is accurate. However now our government claims that's down to 12.something%, which I'm not inclined to believe. Commodity prices on the ground are pretty much unchanged.

How much does 1 liter of petrol/gasoline cost in China typically?
 

thakur_ritesh

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You mean more than 3%?
let us take the worst case scenario and say each year the growth rate was a mere 1%, so by compounding it for the said fiscals the total growth comes to 5.1% but my estimate is the growth rate should be average around 2% for each year which very well means the compound should be well over 10% for the said timeline, but still a better way will be if you gather the data released by the government of india for each fiscal, that will help this discussion.

when it gets said as 3% for 05-09, then that means each year the growth was around 0.6% which is really a suspect figure for the entire period.

anyways just for the fiscal 2005-06 the growth in the sector was closer to 3%, not sure what the exact figure was.
 
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Minghegy

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Yes, that figure is accurate. However now our government claims that's down to 12.something%, which I'm not inclined to believe. Commodity prices on the ground are pretty much unchanged.

How much does 1 liter of petrol/gasoline cost in China typically?
Here is, use the current exchange rate
97# is RMB 6.76 (USD 0.9984)
93# is RMB 6.19 (USD 0.9142)

let us take the worst case scenario and say each year the growth rate was a mere 1%, so by compounding it for the said fiscals the total growth comes to 5.1% but my estimate is the growth rate should be average around 2% for each year which very well means the compound should be well over 10% for the said timeline, but still a better way will be if you gather the data released by the government of india for each fiscal, that will help this discussion.

when it gets said as 3% for 05-09, then that means each year the growth was around 0.6% which is really a suspect figure for the entire period.

anyways just for the fiscal 2005-06 the growth in the sector was closer to 3%, not sure what the exact figure was.
Grain yield depends on climate, so very unstable.
China's grain yield grow rate in 2008-2009 was only 0.4%, 2007-2008 was 2.6%, 2009-2010 will likely decrease compare to 2008-2009.
Try to get the grain yield of 2005 and 2009, the other datas are not necessary.
 
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tarunraju

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Here is, use the current exchange rate
97# is RMB 6.76 (USD 0.9984)
93# is RMB 6.19 (USD 0.9142)
I'm guessing "97# and 93#" refer to Octane number (measure of quality, calorific value), in which case, those prices are nice. 42 INR per liter of 93 octane petrol is fantastic. "#93" is 8 RMB /liter here.
 

tarunraju

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Yes, it's Octane number, how about India?
Like I said, 93 octane petrol is sold for 8 RMB per liter, and 96 octane (branded as "Speed" or "Xtra Premium") is 8.4 RMB per liter.
 

Minghegy

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I see, sorry I'm befuddled, it's time to sleep, byeiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii
 

Martian

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i want you to quote the official figures released by the government of india on the agriculture growth in india for financial years:
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
The best estimate that I can find is an improved "all crops" yield of 1.2% for 1991-1992 to 2006-2007. ("Jun 27, 2008 ... The Reserve Bank of India today published a Study entitled 'Agricultural Growth in India since 1991'.) See chart at bottom of page 6 at http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/content/pdfs/85240.pdf
 

thakur_ritesh

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The best estimate that I can find is an improved "all crops" yield of 1.2% for 1991-1992 to 2006-2007. ("Jun 27, 2008 ... The Reserve Bank of India today published a Study entitled 'Agricultural Growth in India since 1991'.) See chart at bottom of page 6 at http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/content/pdfs/85240.pdf
dig a little further, all you need to do is find the total real gdp growth rate numbers for each fiscal and then find its break up, not that difficult to do and i know you can do it, either that way or specifically look out for the agriculture growth for the said fiscals. in case you go with the former and the total impact is projected as 0.5%, agriculture makes near 17% of india's gdp, so then to get the actual figure multiply the specified number with 5.88 and you will have the numbers.
 

Rage

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The best estimate that I can find is an improved "all crops" yield of 1.2% for 1991-1992 to 2006-2007. ("Jun 27, 2008 ... The Reserve Bank of India today published a Study entitled 'Agricultural Growth in India since 1991'.) See chart at bottom of page 6 at http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/content/pdfs/85240.pdf

Grain yield depends on climate, so very unstable.
China's grain yield grow rate in 2008-2009 was only 0.4%, 2007-2008 was 2.6%, 2009-2010 will likely decrease compare to 2008-2009.
Try to get the grain yield of 2005 and 2009, the other datas are not necessary.
You can find all the info you need on India's food stats here:

http://www.indiaagristat.com/agriculture/2/foodgrains/17180/totalfoodgrains/17193/stats.aspx


The RBI report has a very, and I mean very conservative estimate of the unorganized sector's demand-based contribution to food production.

A more clear and accurate estimate of that stat is provided here: Per this, India is/was the largest fruit producing nation in 2005 at 32 million tonnes, and the organized sector has a rapidly climbing share of as much as 48%, which I believe is still lower than factual consumption.

http://www.prlog.org/10002853-unorganized-sector-fueling-food-sector-growth-in-india.html

The 'unorganized' sector includes everything from hawkers and vendors to illegal exporters, which ply their trade across the border in the extremely lucrative markets of Pakistan, Nepal, Afghanistan, Burma and Bangladesh.


The following is a 2006 report on the growth of the (organized) food industry in India over the next decade and the last few years:

http://www.corecentre.co.in/Database/Docs/DocFiles/food.pdf
 

EagleOne

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no need to discuss all this stuff
the only thing is that we have some unappropriate person who became leaders and that it is the only cause
because around 2months back NDTV reported that we have storage place for beer and alcohol but not for food grains...
a real bad news ..
 

thakur_ritesh

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no need to discuss all this stuff
the only thing is that we have some unappropriate person who became leaders and that it is the only cause
because around 2months back NDTV reported that we have storage place for beer and alcohol but not for food grains...
a real bad news ..
infact a near 40% of our yearly produce rots thanks to no proper storage facilities, lack of logistics, and inadequate infrastructure. india is a food surplus country but for the places where we lack, and if those can be properly addressed a lot of our and global woes to food shortage can be addressed to.
 

nrj

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infact a near 40% of our yearly produce rots thanks to no proper storage facilities, lack of logistics, and inadequate infrastructure. india is a food surplus country but for the places where we lack, and if those can be properly addressed a lot of our and global woes to food shortage can be addressed to.
I have a name to suggest for this mess - Mr. Sharad Pawar, Hon. Agriculture Minister, GOI.
 
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