Iran Military Developments

Would Iran having a Nuclear Bomb benefit India vis-a-vis Pakistan?

  • Yes

    Votes: 16 23.5%
  • No

    Votes: 39 57.4%
  • Can't Say

    Votes: 13 19.1%

  • Total voters
    68

ahmedsid

Top Gun
Senior Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2009
Messages
2,960
Likes
252
The IRanian missiles will be set up with chemical or biological warheads if they feel their existence is at risk just when Israel is about to nuke. Iran has an advanced Pharmacuetical and Medican industry and they learnt a lot about Germ warfare during the Iraq War.

You do know how big Tel Aviv is right? 3 or 4 Ballistic Missiles falling in the heart of the city will be enough my friend, and If its rigged with toxins, then God Forbid!

Aerial Refuellers wont do good, US have to allow the Israeli Planes to go through Iraq and US wont do this because then Iran will send up some missiles against US bases in the Gulf. Obama doesnt want to get into a Iran war when he is got 2 messed up wars on his hands! Israel is in a fix.
 

SATISH

DFI Technocrat
Ambassador
Joined
Mar 7, 2009
Messages
2,038
Likes
303
Country flag
If Israel could, Israel wouldnt have rattled at all...it would be a hit to kill mission by now...They wouldnt even have le the reactor to go critical...
 

Ray

The Chairman
Professional
Joined
Apr 17, 2009
Messages
43,132
Likes
23,835
Israel has good reasons to be paranoid about their existence.

The possible reasons could be:

1. The Balfour Declaration was a declaration of intent for a Jewish State.

The Balfour Declaration of 1917 (dated 2 November 1917) was a formal statement of policy by the British government stating that "His Majesty's government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavours to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine, or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country."

Since it was a sort of Imperial decree without taking into consideration of the local sentiments or the consent of the locals, it is open to question and hence the discomfort.

2. After centuries of being a People without any Homeland and at the mercy and ridicule of their host nations, they looked forward to a Nation of their own, where they would be free of discrimination and racial subjugation and hatred. For a People who were treated with scorn and disregard and almost as sub humans, this Promised Land was a dream come true and too good to miss out on. Hence, a paranoiac attachment to this land, and given it rather ‘dubious’ and arbitrary rationale and foundation, it leaves the Israelis psychologically and mentally unsettled. This is possibly the reason as to why they overkill to establish their rights over the land at the expense of others, even though the Balfour Declaration states that the State so established should not prejudice the civil, religious and political rights of the native inhabitants.

3. Israel is surrounded by hostile Arab neighbours who had not recognised Israel’s right to exist. Wars have been fought and the united Arab armies defeated. The Yom Kippur War gave Israel the fright of its life, even though the war ended in Israel’s favour. Even though, Egypt and Jordan have recognised the right of Israel, the remainder of the Arabs have not. The Hamas, supported by these Arabs, are a constant threat to the existence of Israel and the security of its citizens. Thus, Israel is in a constant state of ‘armed and hostile peace’! Peace without Peace!

4. The straw that broke the camel’s back as far as Israel is concerned was the rude shock given by the Hezbollah in the confrontation with them in Lebanon. The undisputed Israeli military prowess and superiority was broken by what was taken to be a rag tag militant group and they were trained and supported by IRAN!! Therefore, it was obvious that Iran could be a tough adversary unlike the Arabs. Hence, the worry over Iran.

Thus, Israel has good reasons to be worried about any change in the security status of the Middle East.

Further, while the Sunni Arab nations can be ‘controlled’ by the US, Iran cannot be controlled! In such a scenario, if Iran has nuclear weapons, it can be catastrophic for a small nation like Israel. Therefore, Israel looks upon Iran with great suspicion and would like to take action to see that Iran does not possess any greater strike capability that what it already has!
 

tito

Regular Member
Joined
Apr 19, 2009
Messages
19
Likes
2
If i am right, Israel warned that it would retaliate if Iran was supplied with S-300s byRussia.
going by that, I assume that Israel is in a position to retaliate, against Iran
 

EnlightenedMonk

Member of The Month JULY 2009
Senior Member
Joined
Mar 7, 2009
Messages
3,831
Likes
28
Even it a couple of missiles get through, its not going to destroy Israel. Those missiles are not going to be nuclear tipped as the assumption is that Iran doesnt have a working warhead right now.
Israel can use aerial refueling and can scrape through. The US wont mind Israel using Iraqi airspace.
I doubt the Israelis have range even with mid-air refuelling...

And, even if the US is ok (which I doubt) with the Israelis using Iraq as a transit point, the Iraqis will not have any of it... remember, the Iraqis know that the Americans will not be around forever to save and help them. They do realise that their immediate neighbourhood is full of Arabs and they also share an immediate border with the more powerful Iranians...

So, all of these will have to be factored in before the Iraqis give them any transit rights to bombs the Iranians...

Bottomline is that Iraq is an infeasible option for them to use... and, the Iraqis, even if they had half a brain, would know that it isn't in their "interest" to let something of that sort happen...
 

Soham

DFI TEAM
Senior Member
Joined
Mar 22, 2009
Messages
1,972
Likes
91
Country flag
I doubt the Israelis have range even with mid-air refuelling...

And, even if the US is ok (which I doubt) with the Israelis using Iraq as a transit point, the Iraqis will not have any of it... remember, the Iraqis know that the Americans will not be around forever to save and help them. They do realise that their immediate neighbourhood is full of Arabs and they also share an immediate border with the more powerful Iranians...

So, all of these will have to be factored in before the Iraqis give them any transit rights to bombs the Iranians...

Bottomline is that Iraq is an infeasible option for them to use... and, the Iraqis, even if they had half a brain, would know that it isn't in their "interest" to let something of that sort happen...
I don't see why.
Iraq is now a US ally, and so is Israel. Why would the US mind Israeli utilization of Iraq's airfields, and other logistics to allow the massing of the Israeli Defence Forces ?
All the Arabs which you talk about are US allies, and all o' them are aware of the fact that opposition to Israel will not be tolerated in Washington. They mess around with any other allies, their armed forces are stripped of all the logistics and spares. That would lead to cannibalization of existing hardware like Iraq did to their F-14s.
It favours Iraq to destroy Iran, allowing them to dominate the region.

Bottomline is that Iraq is the most feasible option for Israel to use, which would be mutually beneficial.
 

ahmedsid

Top Gun
Senior Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2009
Messages
2,960
Likes
252
First of all It was Iran who flew F14s, and Second, Iraq is in no stage to dominate anywhere! Hell they cant dominate their own country!

Second, Iraq is Shia Majority, and Guess what, Shia Shakes Hands with Shia! Moqtada Sadr and allies want to make Iraq an Iran!

Lastly, Arab states like you said are not in any position to oppose or support the attack on Iran. Iraq will in no way support any attack on Iran because of the Shia factor. The Shias are not docile, it will lead to a bloodier situation for the US in Iraq. Honestly, Iraq is Irans trump card and as long as US is there in Iraq, Iran is guaranteed Safety and Security from Israel et al!
 

Soham

DFI TEAM
Senior Member
Joined
Mar 22, 2009
Messages
1,972
Likes
91
Country flag
First of all It was Iran who flew F14s,
My bad. Sincere apologies.

and Second, Iraq is in no stage to dominate anywhere! Hell they cant dominate their own country!
Now wouldn't agree with that.
With all that US military hardware pouring in along with the 2 billion spent in its reconstruction, with a future as a US ally, I wouldn't say they don't have the potential of dominating the area.

Second, Iraq is Shia Majority, and Guess what, Shia Shakes Hands with Shia! Moqtada Sadr and allies want to make Iraq an Iran!
True, but the government will first look after the interests of the country, i.e. US alliance. Lets not talk about what Al-Sadr wants, he matters no more. The Mahdi army matters no more.

Lastly, Arab states like you said are not in any position to oppose or support the attack on Iran. Iraq will in no way support any attack on Iran because of the Shia factor. The Shias are not docile, it will lead to a bloodier situation for the US in Iraq. Honestly, Iraq is Irans trump card and as long as US is there in Iraq, Iran is guaranteed Safety and Security from Israel et al!
Hmmm... you have a point there.
This will need some thinking.
 

ahmedsid

Top Gun
Senior Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2009
Messages
2,960
Likes
252
There are US allies in Middle East, Egypt with Abrams and F16s, then SA with Much much more! But do u see them dominating anywhere? The US wants just one dominating power in ME and thats Israel, for that Plain reason Iran is a thorn!

Even if US gives Iraq F22s then also no use i feel. The US gives arms to a country it wants to Contain I believe, because if you operate US arms, then you are under their mercy and cant go against it, but if you Operate Russian or Chinese arms then the case is different!

PS: There is a Govt in Iraq only until the US is there, after that its civil war! Bloody Civil war! Sadr matters, but not in a way we can think of. There is no Iraqi Govt actually, its just an American Sponsored govt, nothing more. But its bette than Civil War! I dont want US to leave Iraq soon, but I guess they will!
 

Su-47

Regular Member
Joined
Apr 20, 2009
Messages
282
Likes
40
Ok, here is my view.

Iran getting the bomb is not good for India. Iran getting a nuke will put pressure on pak, but it will also put pressure on india, both in the short term and long term. Let me explain:

Short term: Iran and Israel are both on good terms with India. If Iran gets the bomb. Israel will attack Iran. It will be a bloody, possibly nuclear war. Our friends will suffer a lot. Also, Israel is a major defence supplier, and if their industrial sites are destroyed, it will put dampen our defence upgrades, forcing us to rely more on the Russians or Americans.

Long Term: There are no friends or enemies in politics, only interests. Iran might be on good terms with India now, but that can change. Remember, China was a very close ally of India in the 50s. Come 62, they are our enemy. Even now, both countries are wary of each other. Same can happen with Iran. Radical islamisation, our growing relationship with USA and Israel etc are factors that might turn Iran against us. Iranian missiles have the range to hit most Indian cities. We dont want another hostile nation with the capability to nuke us.

Its always better for us to have less nuclear armed nations in the world.
 

Su-47

Regular Member
Joined
Apr 20, 2009
Messages
282
Likes
40
As for Israel hitting Iranian nuclear facilities, it is possible on paper, if they use mid-air refuelling over Iraq by US tankers, but in reality, the success of the operation will depend on US cooperation and the readiness of the Iranian defence forces.
 

ahmedsid

Top Gun
Senior Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2009
Messages
2,960
Likes
252
Ok, here is my view.

Iran getting the bomb is not good for India. Iran getting a nuke will put pressure on pak, but it will also put pressure on india, both in the short term and long term. Let me explain:

Short term: Iran and Israel are both on good terms with India. If Iran gets the bomb. Israel will attack Iran. It will be a bloody, possibly nuclear war. Our friends will suffer a lot. Also, Israel is a major defence supplier, and if their industrial sites are destroyed, it will put dampen our defence upgrades, forcing us to rely more on the Russians or Americans.

Long Term: There are no friends or enemies in politics, only interests. Iran might be on good terms with India now, but that can change. Remember, China was a very close ally of India in the 50s. Come 62, they are our enemy. Even now, both countries are wary of each other. Same can happen with Iran. Radical islamisation, our growing relationship with USA and Israel etc are factors that might turn Iran against us. Iranian missiles have the range to hit most Indian cities. We dont want another hostile nation with the capability to nuke us.

Its always better for us to have less nuclear armed nations in the world.
You got a point, but Slight Correction- Iran is already Islamascized, hence they cant be more Islamic! The thing is that, their Mullahs are different from the Talibani Mullhas in some aspects and they can even be termed moderate when compared to the Taliban, but I dislike the Mullahs either ways lol

The Iranians are different, in the sense they are saner, I would trust a Nuke capable Iran anyday to a Nuke Pakistan! Dont be fooled by the crackpot Ahmedinijad, he is just a Distraction, real power lies elsewhere!
 

Pintu

New Member
Joined
Mar 22, 2009
Messages
12,082
Likes
348
Actually , SU-47, I am also agree with you that hitting Iran is only possible and still in the papers, and also both side has long range missiles, I am also keeping in the view of the Israel's Jericoh missile, till now only few know the current status of these missile, though they had tested one longer version (4800-7000 km , believed to be MIRV capable ,Source: Wikipedia) they keep very much secrecy about this missile, and they are very much tight lipped about this , and firing of this may happen only worst situation of a war. Also, Iran is not Iraq, they have an active ballistic missile programme and they learned from Osirak and are on actively pursuance of Russian ABMs. They would sure do the their worth to protect their N-Plants, and I still can not see now the war, only war of words will continue.

Regards
 

Su-47

Regular Member
Joined
Apr 20, 2009
Messages
282
Likes
40
You got a point, but Slight Correction- Iran is already Islamascized, hence they cant be more Islamic! The thing is that, their Mullahs are different from the Talibani Mullhas in some aspects and they can even be termed moderate when compared to the Taliban, but I dislike the Mullahs either ways lol

The Iranians are different, in the sense they are saner, I would trust a Nuke capable Iran anyday to a Nuke Pakistan! Dont be fooled by the crackpot Ahmedinijad, he is just a Distraction, real power lies elsewhere!
Iran is not radicalised to the degree of the taliban. not yet. but it can happen in the future. thats what i meant anyway.

ya, i'd also rather if iran had 10 000 nuclear warheads than pak have one. but sadly, pak has nukes and we should accept that.

the world already has too many nukes. we dont wat iran to add to that pile.
 

ahmedsid

Top Gun
Senior Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2009
Messages
2,960
Likes
252
Iran is not radicalised to the degree of the taliban. not yet. but it can happen in the future. thats what i meant anyway.

ya, i'd also rather if iran had 10 000 nuclear warheads than pak have one. but sadly, pak has nukes and we should accept that.

the world already has too many nukes. we dont wat iran to add to that pile.
More Nukes= Insecurity--- Very true, I agree. Again a Difference, Iran can never be Taliban controlled, Simply because they are Shia and we all know how much the Taliban hate Shias!!! Iran was very hostile towards taliban controlled Afghanistan and even welcomed American intervention in the beginning to overthrow taliban. For Iran to be too radical where women cover their faces and cant get out of their houses, well the Shias need to be mass converted! :)
 

Sailor

Regular Member
Joined
Apr 19, 2009
Messages
591
Likes
6
Oh, they've got the weapons and knowledge to do it alright. They have the F-16i Storm with their ground hugging radar that were purchased to actually do the job in 2004.
Time has gone on and now with Bush gone and Obama in the Whitehouse, it is doubtful if it can be done.
Israel have to over fly Iraq to get to Iran and they need Obama's permission to do it.
Anyone here think that Obama would allow it?

Israeli F-16i site
http://israeli-weapons.com/weapons/aircraft/f-16i/F-16I.html

 

EnlightenedMonk

Member of The Month JULY 2009
Senior Member
Joined
Mar 7, 2009
Messages
3,831
Likes
28
I doubt that... Obama won't have any of it... he seems too busy pleasing and "bowing" (literally) before the Arabs...
 

rock45

Founding Member/ RIP our friend
Regular Member
Joined
Feb 24, 2009
Messages
152
Likes
4
Obama won't cross Iraq no way no how. I hope he finds a pair soon or were be given Venezuela F-16 parts soon.
 

Ray

The Chairman
Professional
Joined
Apr 17, 2009
Messages
43,132
Likes
23,835
On the issue of Israel using Iraqi airfields as a transit point, it appears to be a trifle iffy and it is not Obama’s say so alone that will impact the issue.

Iraq is a Shia majority State, even if is Arab. Therefore, it is a moot point if they will allow transit to attack another Shia country, and that too to oblige a country that has a historical animosity as Israel and which will raise a hornet’s nest with other Arab nations.

Since, Iraq is dependent on the US, at best Iraq will, in all probability, maintain a neutral stand.

In so far as Arab nations’ stance is concerned, it is an interesting issue. There are some issues that would require to be taken into account:

1. The Arabs and the Iranians are of different racial stock.
2. Arabs are Sunnis and Iranians are Shia and they have a historical enmity that has still not been reconciled.
3. The Arabs have been roundly defeated in all wars with Israel. The Hezbollah, allied to and trained by Iran, has done well against the Israelis in the Lebanon conflict. This is a body blow to the Arab and Sunni prestige and ego.

Therefore, while making the right noises, the Arabs will be only too delighted if Iran’s prestige and power is brought down a couple of notches.
 

Latest Replies

Global Defence

New threads

Articles

Top