Iran Military Developments

Would Iran having a Nuclear Bomb benefit India vis-a-vis Pakistan?

  • Yes

    Votes: 16 23.5%
  • No

    Votes: 39 57.4%
  • Can't Say

    Votes: 13 19.1%

  • Total voters
    68

johnee

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but, SATA, wat about a nuclear iran's implications on pakistan and israel?
 

Yusuf

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Israel most certainly will attack if Iran is close to acquiring a nuke bomb. Infact when the heat was on last year regarding Iran being close to the bomb, lots of reports were circling around for another Orsirak style operation by Israel.

Pakistan would be worried too if Iran had the bomb as its Sunni and Iran is Shia. But what is interesting is the AQ Khan Walmart had deals with Iran too. So Pakistan may not be too perturbed by Iran getting hands on the nukes.
 

ahmedsid

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Israel cant bomb Iran, it simply doesnt have the clear means to do so. But I think Pakistan will be a bit worried, if not too much, as this will give the Shias in Pakistan a voice as Iran is the leader of the Shia world.
 

EnlightenedMonk

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Israel most certainly will attack if Iran is close to acquiring a nuke bomb. Infact when the heat was on last year regarding Iran being close to the bomb, lots of reports were circling around for another Orsirak style operation by Israel.

Pakistan would be worried too if Iran had the bomb as its Sunni and Iran is Shia. But what is interesting is the AQ Khan Walmart had deals with Iran too. So Pakistan may not be too perturbed by Iran getting hands on the nukes.
Israel doesn't have the legs to bomb Iran and run back the way it did with Iraq... so, they might be left with using long range ballistic or cruise missiles...
 

ahmedsid

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Israel doesn't have the legs to bomb Iran and run back the way it did with Iraq... so, they might be left with using long range ballistic or cruise missiles...
Yeah, Cruise Missiles can do it, but the structures are not Osirak, its hardened and the Iranians learnt a lot from Osirak. To top it, Iran wont sit by idle like Iraq did, they will shoot off missiles too, even if 2 get past the ABM and fall in Tel Aviv or other places, then God Forbid! Then Israel will probably nuke Iran and then it can be World War 3.

But I think, no bombing or anything will happen. Iran will get nukes and keep silent like Israel is doing. Iran is Israels biggest Fan I believe, they learn a lot from israel!
 

Yusuf

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Israel cant bomb Iran, it simply doesnt have the clear means to do so. But I think Pakistan will be a bit worried, if not too much, as this will give the Shias in Pakistan a voice as Iran is the leader of the Shia world.
I would dispute that. Israel does have the means to do so. Tacit US help will make it a cake walk.

Self proclaimed leader. No one has appointed it.
 

Pintu

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While I totally agree with SATA's view on the fact that Iran wants Nuclear technology for symbolic restoration of Persian power, I am also on that view that if Iran has N-bomb in future, then Pakistan can be worried of a rising Shia voice and as well as their 'pride of world's only Islamic nation having N-Bomb' though the latter can have less impact on its status amongst the Islamic nations, but rising of a Shia voice will definitely worry Sunni dominated Paksitan, which also homes to 1.29 crores of people follower to Shia Islam religion i.e 21% of total follower of Islam religion in Pakistan (source: Wikipedia), with Pakistan seen bloodiest violent Shia-Sunni clashes in her history, also Shia-Sunni divide in that country, and as for Iran, we have very good ties with them , but also Iran's close relation with Hamas,Hezbollah, AQ racket( which has close links with ISI and ISI itself closest ally of Taliban) should be kept in that mind, and there may be a possibility of these terrorist organizations Hezbollah, Hamas, Taliban ending up with possession of Dirty nukes leaked from Iran. I also think that there will be no war except war of words and Iran will keep silence after having N-weapons as Israel does. A Osirak reactor like incident will not be happened, in my opinion with Iran's restless try for having S-300 somehow makes me feel like that they have taken lessons from Osirak.
 

Yusuf

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Explain AQ Khan trying to sell Iran nuke knowhow. If Pakistan was all too worried about Iran getting nukes, why would it give it the technology? AQ Khan was acting at the behest of the PA,ISI and its Government although they say he acted alone.
I have also stated that the Shia Sunni divide is there, which is a cause of concern for Pakistan, but the attempts at proliferating to Iran doesnt make sense to me.
 

Yusuf

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Still im trying to understand why Pakistan would supply nuke tech to a potential adversary?
 

Ray

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Indeed it appears to be extraordinary that Sunni Pakistan gave the nuclear knowhow to Shia Iran.

There is every possibility that huge amounts of money was paid to the 'powers that be' and Pakistan's leaders are not known to be hesitant in feathering their own nests even if it is not in their Nation's interest.

There is also the possibility that Pakistan realised that the US was a fair-weather friend. Iran was the only Islamic State in Asia which was hostile to the US, while others were in the kowtowing mode. Therefore, possibly (a big possible though) that Pakistan felt that it was in her interest to foist Iran as a threat so that the US attention would get more focussed towards Iran instead of Pakistan since they (Pak) possibly by that time had realised that the Taliban would become unmanageable in the near future and the US would turn their attention to the lawlessness because Pakistan was a nuclear power (even if 9/11 did not happen). It will be recalled that the Taliban was formed long before the Pak Iran nuclear question.

Pakistan must have drawn the conclusion that since Iran has always been anti Israel, the Sunni Nations could not frown on the passing of the nuclear knowhow to Iran.

Just some kiteflying!
 

ahmedsid

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I would dispute that. Israel does have the means to do so. Tacit US help will make it a cake walk.

Self proclaimed leader. No one has appointed it.
Yusufji, could you kindly provide me details of some of the "means" which are in Israels arsenal, barring cruise missiles and ballistics which can effectively take out the Iranian nuke fields?? Their Air Force is potent, but like I said, the Iranian nuke tech is spread wide and its not concentrated and its heavily fortified, and even bunker busters will have a hard time. I feel Iran is past the bombing stage, Israel is already in deep trouble and has a damaged reputation among the world at large due to the recent Gaza offensive, it wouldnt want to embark on another fiasco, especially with NoBama in Power!

Iran is the only Shia Ruled country in the world with some sort of voice, i.e if you discount Baathist Syria.
 

zraver

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There is no evidence that Iran is pursuing a bomb. its enrichment technology cannot make HEU, and its reactor is light water pressurized design. The US's NIT claims the Iranians abandoned any bomb plans in 2003 following the US invasion of Iraq. Iran has not pulled out of the NPT etc.
 

Ray

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Reports out of Iran and her nuclear capability, as per the open sources, is mixed.

There is this report from Vienna which indicates that traces of HEU has been found in Iran
VIENNA, Austria - The U.N. atomic agency has found traces of highly enriched uranium at an Iranian site (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/nuclear_...HrNmUis0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--) linked to the country's defense ministry, diplomats said Friday.
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/archive/index.php/t-80883.html
Though it must be added that Iran claims that these traces are from the country from where the centrifuges have been procured.

Possibly, the CIA has found out that, unlike the previous claims that Iran is close to producing a Nuclear bomb, Iran has still much ground to cover before she is capable of producing a nuclear bomb. That maybe the reason why the US Administration is indicating a reconciliatory path.
 

Yusuf

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Yusufji, could you kindly provide me details of some of the "means" which are in Israels arsenal, barring cruise missiles and ballistics which can effectively take out the Iranian nuke fields?? Their Air Force is potent, but like I said, the Iranian nuke tech is spread wide and its not concentrated and its heavily fortified, and even bunker busters will have a hard time. I feel Iran is past the bombing stage, Israel is already in deep trouble and has a damaged reputation among the world at large due to the recent Gaza offensive, it wouldnt want to embark on another fiasco, especially with NoBama in Power!

Iran is the only Shia Ruled country in the world with some sort of voice, i.e if you discount Baathist Syria.
It will use the F-15s and 16s obviously. Mossad should have enough intel about the facilities and yes if it comes to it, Israel won't hold back from using it's own nukes to take out Irans
 

ahmedsid

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It will use the F-15s and 16s obviously. Mossad should have enough intel about the facilities and yes if it comes to it, Israel won't hold back from using it's own nukes to take out Irans
F16s and F15s are okay, but how do they fly from Israel? They gotta stop In Iraq on the way, and If US agrees to it then it will be hell unleashed and US wont do it, especially now. And to be frank Israel has bitten of more than it can Chew now I feel. If Iran was a neighboring country then it would have been easier with IAF which is the best in the Mid East.

Again, we got to remember Iran is not Syria or Iraq or Palestine. Its got an arsenal of Missiles which can be used and even if 3 or 4 get thru the Israeli ABMs then we can think what will happen with Israel being a very small country!

Then about the Nukes, you do know what one cant just nuke another and get away with it, and its taking things a bit too far and purely unrealistic.
 

Yusuf

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Even it a couple of missiles get through, its not going to destroy Israel. Those missiles are not going to be nuclear tipped as the assumption is that Iran doesnt have a working warhead right now.
Israel can use aerial refueling and can scrape through. The US wont mind Israel using Iraqi airspace.
 

SATISH

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But yusuf....the Israelis have a working nuke....so they might get pissed of if a few Iranian missiles falls on them.
 

Yusuf

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Israel will be willing and prepared for a few missiles to land on Tel Aviv after it attacks Iranian nuke sites.
 

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