Indo-Myanmar Relations

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Realpolitik over morality


Ashok K Mehta

The picture is indelible. US President George W Bush strode, against the magnificent backdrop of the Purana Qila, to the microphone on the improvised stage from where he addressed India during his visit to New Delhi in 2006. He didn't quite say what India wanted to hear, least of all, on Myanmar. He said, "India's leadership is needed in a world that is hungry for freedom. Men and women from North Korea to Burma to Syria to Zimbabwe to Cuba yearn for their liberty"¦" and urged India to back American efforts to help the people of Myanmar get back their liberty. India's response was a sharp setdown. "India does not believe in thrusting democracy down others' throats," said an official spokesman on the same day, when asked to respond to Mr Bush's exhortation.

American policy towards Myanmar is changing. For the first time since 1966, a US President, Mr Barack Obama, met leaders of South-East Asian nations, including Myanmar, last year. Although it was a ceremonial occasion — the 32nd anniversary of Washington's relations with ASEAN — the meeting was attended by the Prime Minister of Myanmar.

Now, ahead of Mr Obama's proposed visit to India, one of the most important foreign visitors for India is due to come to New Delhi next week —Senior General Than Shwe, the head of the Burmese military junta. Gen Than rarely travels out of Myanmar (few invite him). But after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to Myanmar earlier this year, Gen Than Shwe's trip to Delhi assumes new significance.

First, the physical facts about Myanmar. Its biggest trade partners are neighbour Thailand and Singapore, besides China and India. Investments in oil and gas are virtually global. Western NGOs use devious routes to visit Yangon. India, which sent Buddhism and later its last Mughal Emperor to Burma has had to rework its relations from one of isolation to constructive engagement of the military junta. It did not abandon Aung San Suu Kyi or democracy but, guided by realpolitik and national interests, cultivated the Generals for inducing internal reform.

While this policy switch addressed India's security concerns — namely North-East rebel sanctuaries and China's influence in Myanmar — it did little to hasten democratic change. India's need of Myanmar is for connectivity to the North-East denied by Bangladesh; as a bridge to the East; and for oil and gas as an alternative to Iran. A strong and effective military-to-military relationship has been developed over the years. Yet India has to ensure that it is not on the wrong side of history.

Myanmar is the only ASEAN country with land borders with four insurgency-ridden states. With its western flank resting on the epicentre of terrorism in Pakistan, India can ill-afford an unstable easternfrontier. The Generals run the most durable military regime anywhere and cannot be wished away as long as China and Russia have their veto.

But these are the bare facts. The complexity is introduced by two elements: The fact that the military regime has said elections would be held in Myanmar soon; and that Myanmar's ethnic minorities are playing merry hell on its border with China.

An excellent report by ICRIER for the Asia Society outlines the problems that Myanmar has in engaging with the outside world. On the one hand, the regime is demonised and ostracised, while more repressive regimes elsewhere are tolerated and even feted. This leads Myanmar and the ruling regime to foster intense nationalism, which feeds on strong suspicion of foreign countries, especially neighbouring countries.

This nationalism is handy when Myanmar deals with China. Largely because of the void left by Western countries as well as India till 1988, China moved in to 'assist' Myanmar in a very big way. While this engagement suited Myanmar fine, China, tired of being lambasted by the international community for supporting a variety of repressive regimes all over the world, has now begun suggesting to the Myanmarese junta that it loosen its grip a bit.

The problem is, while Myanmar is grateful to the Chinese, it fears them — especially in northern Myanmar (Mandalay) where unbridled immigration from China has practically turned the region and its Shan and Kachin states into part of the Yunnan province in China. China is also constructing river, road and rail transport infrastructure through Myanmar to connect landlocked Yunnan province with the Bay of Bengal. If China were to acquire full sway over Myanmar, it would control the economy and surround India's north-eastern States. There is evidence to suggest it is getting there. Effectively, it is clear that Myanmar has the potential to hurt India more than it can hurt Myanmar.

There is much that India can do: Offer Myanmar food-processing plants, create facilities for Myanmar to exploit and possibly export natural gas (because bringing it to India through a pipeline is not feasible). China has cottoned on to this. During Mr Wen Jiabao's visit in June, Myanmar and China agreed to fast-track the $ 1.5 billion oil pipeline and a $ 1.04 billion gas pipeline, the construction of which started in October last year.

The pipelines will run parallel to each other and enter China at the border city of Ruili in Yunnan province and terminate in Kunming, capital of Yunnan while the 2,806-km natural gas pipeline will extend to Guizhou and Guangxi. The pipeline will diversify China's crude oil import routes from West Asia and Africa, and avoid the sea route through the piracy-prone Strait of Malacca.

Now why didn't we think of that? But then, it is to New Delhi that Gen Than is coming, not to Beijing. India should put aside its residual discomfort at supporting a military regime and offer Myanmar development aid and help in the spirit of generosity. All said and done, with China, Myanmar's relationship is instrumentalist. The regime recognises this and is looking for other baskets in which to place its eggs. India should be able to offer this, even if at the cost of annoying China. New Delhi makes a big deal of its Africa policy and denies it is in a race with the Chinese in the continent. Why not develop the same approach to Myanmar, which is a neighbour after all ?
 

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Look beyond khaki


Rajiv Bhatia

Senior General Than Shwe's visit to New Delhi ahead of the general election in his country is politically significant. In the past, India has called for expediting the national reconciliation process and make it broad-based. But our larger interest lies in doing business with Myanmar

When Senior General Than Shwe, Myanmar's head of state and the most powerful leader, visits New Delhi shortly, he will receive a warm welcome and the utmost attention. Our leadership recognises the importance of Myanmar as an immediate neighbour, as a member of sub-regional cooperation arrangements, and as our gateway to South-East Asia. Myanmar realises the vital significance of India. Both countries have invested heavily in their 'multi-faceted' relationship. It is now time to take stock of them at the highest level and develop a blueprint for future.

This would be Gen Than Shwe's second visit to India. He first visited India in October 2004, during my tenure as Ambassador to Myanmar. That was seen as a 'historic' visit, the first at the head of state level after Gen Ne Win's visit to India in 1980.

Recent years have witnessed India-Myanmar relations being moulded by a fine balancing of strategic, political, security and economic interests. They have been strengthened by each country's need for the other's understanding, support and cooperation in a variety of fields. Visits at VVIP level have enriched bilateral dialogue. President APJ Abdul Kalam visited Myanmar in 2006. This was followed by Vice-Senior General Maung Aye's visit to India in 2008 and visit to Myanmar by Vice-President Hamid Ansari last year.

The political context of Gen Than Shwe's visit is significant. Having traversed various stages — convening of National Convention, drafting of Constitution, and holding of a referendum — the country now awaits the crucial national election. While dates are yet to be announced, the election is expected later in the year. Some have spoken of Septemer 10, 2010 as the likely date. Assuming that it is indeed held in 2010, the election would be different from that of 1990 which had resulted in an overwhelming victory for National League for Democracy. This party would not be a participant in the coming election. Its leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, would not be a candidate. Although Myanmar leaders have promised that the election would be free and fair, in fact it is likely to be well controlled. Whether the election leads to a truly civilian Government or a 'civilianised' version of military Government remains to be seen. Even after the election, the Generals are expected to remain in charge.

India's approach to democracy in Myanmar needs to be appreciated. India has often called on Myanmar to expedite the process of national reconciliation and make it 'broad--based' in order to include all sections of society, including Ms Suu Kyi. In the same vein, ASEAN has stressed the importance of national reconciliation and free and fair elections. It is for the Government of Myanmar, in its wisdom, to accept or ignore friendly advice. India is hardly in a position to do more because it is not in the business of exporting democracy.

A key outcome of Gen Than Shwe's 2004 visit was the categorical assurance given by Myanmar that it would not permit its territory to be used by any hostile elements for harming India's interests. It had also assured India that whenever information about hostile activity came to its notice, it would not hesitate to take appropriate action. Whether Myanmar has been able to provide full satisfaction on this score remains unclear, but the absence of public polemics would indicate that the Myanmar side has perhaps provided considerable satisfaction. This subject is likely to figure again. Further endeavours might be needed to ensure Myanmar's fullest cooperation for protecting security interests in our border region.

Myanmar's main expectation would be to expand the basket of development projects that are being executed with India's generous assistance. In recent years, the basket has already grown in size and range: 'Connectivity' projects creating new road, railway and telecom links; multi-modal Kaladan transport project with long-term implications for development of our North-East; and power, energy and IT projects.

It's time to move beyond the infrastructure sector and start helping Myanmar in setting up cement plants, fertiliser factories, tyre manufacturing units, etc, to enhance the impact of India-assisted development in the region west of Irrawaddy. It remains to be seen whether, after Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, Myanmar will become a major recipient of our line of credit assistance running into millions of dollars.

Talks in New Delhi would also focus on how to re-energise bilateral trade which has been growing rather slowly. It reached $ 1.15 billion mark in 2008-09, with trade balance staying heavily in favour of Myanmar. Our appetite for Myanmar's agricultural and forest products, especially pulses, is large, but it should fuel our quest for a much bigger share of Myanmar market. Through pro-active business promotion, incentives to private sector and a new offer of lines of credit, India should at least double its exports (presently standing at only $ 221 million) in near future. Dominant presence of Chinese goods in the Myanmar market place needs to be countered aggressively. This is a challenge India Inc must accept now.

Our leaders might find Gen Than Shwe to be a shy and reserved man. But while spelling out his vision for Myanmar, he is highly articulate. To him, development merits priority over democracy. About India, he holds friendly sentiments. He feels close to India perhaps because he studied its history and geography as a school boy. Later, as General and leader, his world view has included India as a key player.

Critics and victims of the military Government are entitled to view it in a negative light. But those who have had first-hand knowledge of men and matters in Myanmar are also entitled to present an alternative perspective. Some of them are aware of General Shwe's deep and genuine commitment to Buddhism. His politics is one reality; his spiritual inclination is another. On his last visit, he spent many hours meditating under the Bodhi tree in Bodh Gaya. It is unlikely to be different this time.
 

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Burma leader's India visit draws rights criticism


Burmese military ruler General Than Shwe has arrived in India for a controversial five-day visit, which has been condemned by rights groups.

The junta leader is expected to meet Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on a trip that marks India's desire to strengthen trade links with its neighbour.

Rights groups have written to Mr Singh saying it was "unbecoming" of a democracy to welcome Gen Than Shwe.

Burma's junta is accused of widespread human rights abuses.

Until the mid-1990s, Delhi was a supporter of Aung San Suu Kyi, Burma's imprisoned pro-democracy leader.

But analysts say India's desire to do business with Burma, reputed to have large reserves of natural gas and precious stones, has since outweighed concerns over human rights.The BBC's Subir Bhaumik in Calcutta says some Indians welcome what they see as a pragmatic approach to foreign policy, but many others support Burma's pro-democracy movement and accuse their country of not doing enough to support it.

Gen Than Shwe began his trip in Bodh Gaya, a Buddhist pilgrimage site, and he is due to visit information technology and pharmaceutical businesses in Hyderabad before meeting Mr Singh.

But officials told the BBC that they are unlikely to discuss Burma's forthcoming election - the first parliamentary vote in two decades, which the military is almost certain to dominate.

"It is crucial for India to cement its relationship with Myanmar [Burma] to deal with the insurgency that plagues the north east and to counterbalance China's influence," an unnamed Indian official told the AFP news agency.

The US, one of the countries to have imposed sanctions on Burma's military, urged India to "send a clear message to Burma that it needs to change its course".

The International Federation for Human Rights, which represents 164 organisations across the world, wrote to Mr Singh saying the junta's "well-documented human rights abuses includes acts that may amount to war crimes".

And some in the energy industry also doubt that deepening ties with the junta is good for business.

"India expected Burma to supply natural gas from the huge deposits in its Arakan province," said Ashok Das, a retired official of the state-sponsored Oil India company.

"That is why we invested there. But all the Arakan gas is now going to China."

Indian officials say Burma is also doing little to check the flow of narcotics and weapons into India, according to our correspondent.
 

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India to chart its own course on Myanmar ties


India will not toe the Western line on Myanmar when it interacts with the head of the regime, Senior General Than Shwe, on Tuesday.

Opposed to sanctions that the West has imposed, India will take stock of the moves towards democracy and gently urge the Myanmar regime to move towards a more inclusive society although it is reconciled to the non-participation of jailed National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi in the coming general elections.

Having gained the Myanmar regime's confidence after engaging with it consistently for a decade, India is in no mood to sacrifice its national interests by adopting a stand identical to that taken by the West which neither shares an unruly border for thousands of kilometres nor the shared past of colonialism when the Burmese social structure was dismantled.

India will listen to the steps being taken by Myanmar to move towards a more inclusive society. Senior General Than Shwe, in his interaction with the Indian leadership, has always acquainted it with steps being taken by his government to ensure more broad-based participation in national governance. The Myanmar leader is expected to once again inform New Delhi of the steps being taken to introduce a more democratic society.

Lost opportunity

India rues that the West lost an opportunity to gain Myanmar's confidence immediately after the deadly tropical cyclone Nargis hit the country in mid-2008. China was busy grappling with an equally devastating earthquake in its south-western parts during the same time. And Myanmar sensed this was a good opportunity to reach out to the world.

However, the U.S. packed its first relief convoy with Marines which immediately made the Myanmar regime suspicious of its intentions and prompted it to turn down the offer. In contrast, India received a different reception thanks to its "realistic attitude" which it wishes the West would adopt. Even though its medical teams were drawn from the military, they were allowed to venture deep into the country. And when supplies began running out and the teams began preparing to return home, the Myanmar government requested India to extend their stay.

In its recent confabulations with the U.S. and other countries, India has consistently told them that sanctions offered no solution. And the motive behind the sanctions — regime change — only made the Myanmar ruling regime more suspicious of the West's intentions.

It is not widely known but when Myanmar refused entry to the then U.N. Under-Secretary General for Political Affairs, Ibrahim Gambari, it was not the West's indignation but India's persuasion that allowed him to visit the country.

Insurgent groups

Moreover, Myanmar never had an inimical attitude towards India in terms of supporting insurgent groups despite Chin, Mizo and Kachin ethnic groups being spread on both sides of the border.

India acknowledges the few steps taken by Myanmar such as the ceasefire with 18 of the 17 armed ethnic groups operating in the country and the effort to give them space in the coming elections. India also takes note of the presence of 38 parties participating in the poll arena. These include the National Democratic Front, a breakaway faction of Aung Suu Kyi's NLD, as some leaders felt they were getting completely marginalised by staying away from the elections.

India hopes that in turn there would be some forward movement on the security front with Myanmar gaining a better understanding of Indian interests in the form of total denial of sanctuary to anti-Indian groups.
 

ajtr

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good that india is growing spine and opposing usa keeping in mind its interests on iran and burma.The rules and morality which usa creates for others it never follows itself case in point pak/china.

India should tell Myanmar to change course: U.S.


While India has for the most part been careful not to stray into any sensitive areas of the United States' foreign policy engagements with third parties, its recent overtures to the heads of the military junta in Myanmar could prove to be a stress point in the India-U.S. relationship.

With Senior General Than Shwe, head of the Myanmar regime, arriving in India this weekend for a state visit, the U.S.' anxiety over India's growing closeness to the energy rich Asian country was palpable.

When asked about the visit, Philip Crowley, State Department spokesman, said "Others who have relationships with Burma share a responsibility to communicate directly and forcefully to Burma about its responsibilities, whether they're protecting the region against the risk of proliferation or telling Burma directly that it should more constructively engage its opposition and other ethnic groups within Burma."

He added, "India is one of those countries. It has a relationship with Burma and we would — as we have [said] to India in the past — encourage India and other countries to send a clear message to Burma that it needs to change its course."

While Mr. Crowley clarified that nuclear proliferation between India and Myanmar "is not something that concerns us" his comments reflected what is likely to be of deep concern in the State Department that through its engagement with India, the military rulers of Myanmar may be gaining greater legitimacy in the international arena.

In an indication of such concern, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell was reported to have told reporters earlier that India's "very important role in the international community" should be used to penetrate the tight military clique that runs Myanmar. He was said to have added that New Delhi should "encourage interlocutors inside [Burma] to embrace reform".

"Look East" policy

While the Indian government had consistently criticised the Myanmar junta prior to the mid-1990s, it distanced itself from such criticism since then in pursuit of a "Look East" policy, focussing on developing stronger economic and political bonds with East and South East Asian countries.

Mr. Campbell was also quoted as saying that while India was "beginning to play perhaps a more active role" in diplomatically pressuring Burma, "they've also been very clear that they have strategic interests. And we respect those".

Reports noted that in addition to Myanmar moving closer to India through, for example, a 26 per cent jump in bilateral trade, China was also "rapidly becoming the Burmese junta's key economic and political ally, and ... Washington is doubly concerned that its rise is steadily eroding U.S. influence in the region".

According to a statement, General Shwe will hold talks with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on economic and military co-operation including the possible signing of a series of trade deals. It was also reported that the discussions would focus on energy, border security and expanding counterterrorism cooperation.
 
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US already interferred with our relations with Iran now it seems they are trying to do the same with Burma??
 

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India has already made its priorities clear to west on its relation with burma.

India will not toe the Western line on Myanmar when it interacts with the head of the regime, Senior General Than Shwe, on Tuesday.
India is in no mood to sacrifice its national interests by adopting a stand identical to that taken by the West which neither shares an unruly border for thousands of kilometres nor the shared past of colonialism when the Burmese social structure was dismantled.
India rues that the West lost an opportunity to gain Myanmar's confidence immediately after the deadly tropical cyclone Nargis hit the country in mid-2008.
 

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India, Myanmar Sign Slew Of Agreements

1 day ago

(RTTNews) - India and Myanmar on Tuesday signed a total of five agreements during Myanmar military ruler General Than Shwe's ongoing visit to the country, reports said.

The bilateral pacts cover a wide range of subjects including enhanced co-operation in the field of energy resources as well as development and followed the visiting Myanmarese leader's meeting with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

"Both leaders expressed their desire for greater economic engagement. In this context, Prime Minister Singh conveyed India's commitment to continue with developmental assistance to Myanmar, " a communique said.

A key accord signed by the two South Asian nations provides for mutual legal assistance in criminal matters and this could aid New Delhi's drive against insurgents in the country's Northeastern states bordering Myanmar.

In addition it will enable law enforcement agencies on both sides to effectively combat organized crime, terrorism, drug-trafficking, money laundering and smuggling of arms and explosives.

The treaty is also meant to deepen bilateral cooperation in combating transnational organized crime, terrorism, drug-trafficking, money laundering and smuggling of arms and explosives.

Singh and Shwe discussed a broad range of topics including increased collaboration for ensuring better cross-border connectivity and infrastructure development. Besides agreements were signed regarding small development projects, science and technology and information cooperation.

Earlier the general who arrived to a grand welcome in the Indian capital New Delhi on Tuesday also held talks with President Pratibha Patil, External Affairs Minister SM Krishna and Vice- President Hamid Ansari.

Meanwhile, human rights activists were quick to slam New Delhi for rolling out the Red Carpet to the General owing to Myanmar's appalling human rights record.
 

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I find this article sums up Burma leader Gen Than Shwe's visit to the country well:



India slips Myanmar a nudge and a wink
By Sudha Ramachandran



BANGALORE - Myanmar's Senior General Than Shwe ended a five-day visit to India on Thursday having sealed several pacts that will boost security and economic cooperation between the two countries. A treaty on mutual legal assistance in criminal matters will enable India to get access to insurgents from its northeastern states who are taking sanctuary along the India-Myanmar border. The treaty will also boost bilateral efforts to combat terrorism and drug trafficking.

India has also pledged a grant of US$60 million for the construction of a road linking its northeast with Myanmar, besides a grant of $10 million for Myanmar to purchase agricultural machinery from India.

More than these million-dollar deals, it is the red-carpet welcome that Than Shwe received that the junta will probably value most of all. Under criticism from the West for its plans to hold elections under a constitution that cements the military's role in politics even as it excludes the participation of main opposition figure Aung San Suu Kyi, the India visit is endorsement for the junta from the world's largest democracy.

The warm welcome triggered condemnation worldwide and angry protests by Myanmarese exiles in Delhi. These are pro-democracy activists, including monks who have gone in waves to India since the 1988 military crackdown.

To the pro-democracy activists, Than Shwe's visit was full of ironies. Here was a general who presided over a bloody crackdown on Buddhist monks in 2008, visiting Bodh Gaya in eastern India, where the Lord Buddha is believed to have attained enlightenment.

In Delhi, the general laid a wreath at Rajghat, the memorial to Mahatma Gandhi. Gandhi's non-violent resistance against colonial rule has inspired millions across the world, including the junta's bete noire, Suu Kyi. And to top it, it was the world's largest democracy that was feting the general.

The feeling of betrayal by India among pro-democracy activists is understandable. India was, after all, once their biggest supporter. In 1988, it not only condemned the junta's crackdown on student protesters, but also officials in the Indian Embassy in Yangon are believed to have helped opposition groups during the protests and India provided sanctuary to pro-democracy activists fleeing the junta's crackdown. In 1992, Delhi even sponsored a United Nations resolution calling on the junta to heed the verdict of the 1990 election and restore democracy.

Compare that with the Indian government's response, or rather lack of response, to developments in Myanmar in recent years and the extent of India's policy shift becomes evident. It remained silent for months during the 2007 mass protests in Yangon. When it finally spoke in a bland statement, the government said that it was "concerned" and expressed hope "that all sides will resolve their issues peacefully through dialogue".

It failed to condemn or even take note of the junta's ruthless suppression of peaceful protest. There has been no comment from India on Myanmar's new constitution, which entrenches the military in the power structure. The extension of Suu Kyi's house detention last year was also met with stony silence from Delhi.

Indian officials deny that India has abandoned the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar. An official in India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) told Asia Times Online some months ago that India was still committed to democracy and human rights in that country. Only it had adopted "a more nuanced approach, one that involves dealing with the government and commitment to human rights and democracy", he said. Explaining its silence on important developments in Myanmar, he said that raising "sensitive issues" such as the restoration of democracy or Suu Kyi's detention in public was "unproductive". India preferred "to nudge Myanmar quietly on issues of concern,'' he said.

So did India nudge Than Shwe on issues related to the restoration of democracy during the Delhi visit?

K Yhome, associate fellow at the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation, told Asia Times Online that it was likely that India would have raised its concerns about the elections. "It would have made it clear that the generals must, to the extent possible, ensure free and fair elections in a manner that would make the elections credible to the international community," he said, adding that India was putting pressure on the generals "in its own way".

India's influence over the generals has grown significantly over the past 15 years. It was concern over China's mounting influence in Myanmar that prompted Delhi to begin courting the generals in the mid-1990s, hesitantly at first and then assiduously over the past decade.

There were other reasons too. Success of its "Look East" policy was not possible if it remained reluctant to build ties with Myanmar - the "land-bridge" that links India with Southeast Asia. Besides, northeastern insurgents were taking sanctuary in Myanmar. Counter-insurgency operations there required the junta's cooperation.

Myanmar's ample gas reserves have been a huge attraction as well. Realizing that the generals would be in power the foreseeable future at least, Indian policymakers felt they had to engage them. This prompted the shift to a more "realistic policy" over Myanmar.

Justifying India's engagement of the generals, Pranab Mukherjee, then India's foreign minister, said in 2006 that India had to deal with governments "as they exist". "We are a democracy and we would like democracy to flourish everywhere. But we cannot export our ideologies," he said.

Unlike the West, which has dismissed the proposed election in Myanmar as a sham, India is taking a more nuanced view. The election, while it will not be perfect, is an important step in a longer process of democratization.

Yhome explains that in a country like Myanmar, which has been under military rule for decades, democratization will be "an incremental process". To expect total regime change like the one the US expected is unrealistic. "No solution can realistically exclude them [the generals]. We have to accept the reality on the ground, recognize that some players will remain important and that we have to deal with them," he said.

Again, while India has remained silent on the opposition National League for Democracy's decision to boycott the elections, it is believed that it was in favor of the party participating in the poll. "The NLD had a choice between entering the fray and working the system, or staying out of it and going into oblivion. Unfortunately, it chose the latter," the MEA official observed.

Journalist Siddharth Varadarajan, writing in the Hindu newspaper, has drawn attention to the seeming blunder the NLD has committed in boycotting the poll:

''A boycott will be effective only if the NLD can mobilize enough support on the streets and if the military fears the adverse impact this would have on its international standing. Neither of these conditions hold. The SPDC [State Peace and Development Council] has already hit rock bottom in the global popularity stakes and the opposition's chances of paralyzing Yangon, Mandalay and the new capital of Naypyitaw are low indeed. Given how well-entrenched the military is and given Southeast Asia region's preference for 'order', a 'guided democracy' is the best that can be hoped for under the present circumstances. But even this would be a huge improvement over the current stalemate and would open up political spaces that Daw Suu Kyi and the NLD could slowly utilize."​

It is highly likely that the election, if held at all, will be flawed. But that is inevitable, considering the country has been under military rule for over half a century. The political transition will be slow and move in fits and starts. Yet changes that were unthinkable even a year ago are happening.

The election will create political institutions that Myanmar has not had for decades - a presidential system, two houses of parliament, 14 regional governments and assemblies. All the same, a quarter of those sitting in parliament will be from the military. And it is likely that many civilians in the house will be their cronies. Still, "it will be the most wide-ranging transformation in a generation and offers an opportunity for a change in the future direction of the country", Jim Della-Giacoma of the International Crisis Group has observed.

While the generals have clearly secured themselves by framing the rules of the game in a way that will ensure their future role in Myanmar's politics, the upcoming transition will fill them with uncertainties. Two decades ago, when they did hold elections, their plans blew up in their faces as the NLD tidal wave swept them away, only for the result to be ignored.

Since 2007, monks in Myanmar have declared Pattani Kuzanakan against the junta their families in protest of the brutal crackdown. Pattani Kuzanakan imposes a boycott on the offender and prohibits monks from accepting offerings and preaching sermons to the offender, necessary for Buddhists to earn karmic credit. Those spurned become outcasts from Buddhist society.

At Bodh Gaya, the highly religious and superstitious Than Shwe prayed for about five hours, fed monks at a monastery and donated approximately $11,000 to the temple.

Clearly, he wants the path ahead to be as smooth as possible.


Sudha Ramachandran is an independent journalist/researcher based in Bangalore.

(Copyright 2010 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved.)


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LG30Df02.html
 

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Burmese migrants to India protest against Gen.Than Shwe.


 
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Than Shwe State Visit

President Pratibha Patil invited Senior General Than Shwe on a State visit. As part of high-level contacts between India and Burma, Hamid Ansari VP of India visited Burma in February 2009, and Vice Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council of the Union of Myanmar Vice Senior General Maung Aye visited India in 2008. Wow, General Maung Aye must really like his title and department. General Shwe received a ceremonial reception at the Rashtrapati Bhavan. Place yourself in Shwe' shoes for a sec, All the top folks in India meet him, Prez, PM, VP, Leader of Opposition. Shwe gets to visit Rajghat, pray at Bodhgaya and the two nations ink few deals. Shwe could not have asked for more, right? Looks like Indian establishment ensured that Shwe returned fully pleased. Burmese media is impressed. Sudha Ramachandran notes that "India's influence over the generals has grown significantly over the past 15 years".No kidding.

During the visit, the Burmese delegation show "deep appreciation for the generous and concessionary credit facilities" given by India to finance significant infrastructure and other projects". The words in the quotes are straight from MEA press release. So they are happy, and what do they do? They ask for more :). Seriously Burma wants India to assist Burma in IT Development, Industrial development and Infrastructure development. What does India do? It says 'sure do'. No the quoted words are not from MEA, it is mine. Essentially India agrees.

You ask fine, but what about the Kaladan MMTTP? All you need to know is both the countries make all the right noises. No whinning, just little more of 'hum chalenge sath sath' {again it is not a quote from MEA, don't go googling}. After all the singing they sit down tired, but with a smile on the progress of the Indian BRO work on Tamu-Kalaywa-Kalemyo Road connecting Moreh, Manipur to Burma. You think great, but wait there is says India. India provides $60 million grant assistance to revamp the Rhi-Tiddim road. Burma purrs with satisfaction.

1. I & B sign MoU for the creation of Line of Credit of $60million; it was between EXIM Bank of India and Myanmar Foreign Trade Bank.
2. I & B sign a pact on "criminal matters". This will help India get access to insurgents in the NE states. This should also help India and Burma in tackling drug trafficking and borer terrorism. Burma now can deport insurgents to India for trial under Indian laws. This is the first of its kind for Burma, while India has signed with 30 countries. Good eh?
3. I & B fine-tune the alternative trade access route, that is being built by India thru Burma, in the North-East.
4. I & B firm up financing for major connection roads, improve railway infrastructure and telecommunication links.
5. India announces a grant of $10 million for agricultural machinery; Burma then seeks technical assistance.
6. India renews agreement for providing satellite data to Burma.
7. I & B issues a joint statement on the ripeness of oil & gas field exploration.
*. Total goodies promised by India to Burma is $200million (Rs.930 crores).

If your dil maange more on the exact documents that were signed, here you go - I did the googling for you:
a. Treaty on Mutual Assistance in Criminal Matters
b. MOU regarding Indian Grant Assistance for Implementation of Small Developmental projects.
c. MoU on Information Cooperation
d. Agreement on Cooperation in the fields of Science & Technology
e. MoU on Conservation and Restoration of Ananda Temple in Bagan, Myanmar


1. Shwe Talks about Burma elections groundwork.
2. India underlines a broad-based national reconciliation process to Shwe.
3. Shwe donates $11282 to Mahabodhi Temple at Bodh Gaya, he then visits Sarnath Temple (which is 13kms North East of Varnasi)
4. Shwe meets President Pratibha Patil, VP Hamid Ansari and PM MMS in New Delhi.
5. Shwe visits Tata Motors plant Jamshedpur. The Minister of National Planning and Economic Development U.Soe Thae, along with a delegation, is supposed to have accompanied Shwe. If you are asking "why"; a possible answer is TTM is establishing a plant in Burma expecting to start production of 1000 heavy trucks from 2011.
6. In New Delhi, Shwe visited Rajghat.
7. Shwe, along with a 80 member delegation, visited the IT hub in Hyderabad. They visit L&T Infocity, Bharat Biotech and Salar Jang Museum.


Other countries are making all the usual noises, not worth pointing out here. Same old same old.

Now I want you to think about this, before you sleep.....
Your neighbor invites you and your family. He allows you to pray in his pooja room; then his grandparents, parents and siblings shower all love and affection. Then his uncle gives your kids some 'allowance money' to buy some toys. They present you several gifts including some cement and roof tiles to fix your house. As you keep thanking them, he insists he will send his handymen to fix your drive way and fence and repair your broken tube well.

Now you are not exactly a dumb guy, you realize either your neighbor wants something from you or really one of the best guys on this planet. But you are also reminded about the other burly neighbor who has been doing something very similar for several years. So you take all you can, but when rubber meets the road whom will you support?

You can read the Join Statement at http://meaindia.nic.in/. Let me tell you the PMO website sucks.
 

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http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...-PM-on-Myanmar-policy/articleshow/6254141.cms

Amartya Sen ticks off PM on Myanmar policy
TNN, Aug 4, 2010, 01.16am IST

NEW DELHI: Friendship between Nobel laureate Amartya Sen and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is a well-known fact. Perhaps, what is not known is that the Harvard don seldom minces words when it comes to issues that are close to his heart.

With PM in the audience, Sen while delivering a lecture on Centrality of Literacy on Tuesday said he did not approve of the nation's policy on Myanmar. "I do not agree with your policy on Burma. In a democratic country like India, I can say this to the Prime Minister," he said.

The remark came came close on the heels of New Delhi playing host to Myanmar's military ruler Senior General Than Shwe, who was here last week.

Over the years, Shew has been slammed across the world for his scant regard for democratic norms and horrifying human rights abuses. For instance, po-democracy leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has been barred from contesting elections slated for later this year.

Be that as it may, India has been compelled to embrace Myanmar, thanks to geo-political compulsions. The country needs to maintain cordial ties with the junta-ruled state not only to ward off China's growing influence but also for the sake of energy security.

Sen also drew a distinction between the ideals of former Chinese president Mao Zedong and Maoists' menace back home.

"Mao had promoted basic education in China that augmented the economic development of the country. But, the Maoists in India are affecting the basic education structure in states like West Bengal," he said.

Sen said India has to learn a lot from China, Japan and the UK, which pioneered reforms. "The illiterate people suffer a lot in society as they fail to make use of their rights. Democracy can be more effective if illiteracy is eliminated," he suggested. Sen also said that health education and chapters on ill effects of smoking should be made a part of school curriculum.

Speaking earlier the PM said literacy is central to social and economic development. No modern industrial nation has less than 80% literacy, he said. Singh said the goal before his government is to make India literate and reduce the gender gap in literacy.
 

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Where do 'Chinese' guns arming rebels really come from?


South Asia's illegal arms market is full of "Chinese-made weapons" - but many of them may not actually be made in China.

Anti-arms campaigners say that the rifles and machine guns which South Asia's rebel armies buy are manufactured under "an informal franchise" that Burma's rebel United Wa State Army (UWSA) has managed to secure from Chinese ordnance factories.

The UWSA is an ethnic left-wing rebel militia, with an estimated 30,000 fighters. It is accused of being involved in arms dealing and drug trafficking.

It enjoys very close relations with China because most of its leaders, being former Communist guerrillas, were trained in China in the 1960s and 1970s.

Matters have recently become more tense because the UWSA's ceasefire with the Burmese military government is in danger of falling apart.

The UWSA is unhappy over the government's drive to get all ethnic militias to join a military-sponsored Border Guard Force.

None of this seems to bother unscrupulous and unofficial Chinese arms dealers who carry on supplying weapons, despite the possibility of more armed conflict.

"The Chinese factories are desperate for profits and they have not cared who the weapons are reaching. Now they are outsourcing [their know-how]," says Binalaxmi Nephram, an award-winning campaigner against small arms proliferation.

At the same time the UWSA has started producing Chinese-made weapons under an "informal franchise" after allegedly making a huge annual payment to factories in China to use their designs and obtain production-level support.

Major player
Sources in the illegal arms trade say that the last big consignment of genuine Chinese weapons to enter South Asia was the one that was seized by Bangladesh police at the port city of Chittagong in April 2004.

Confessions made by a Bangladesh arms dealer, Hafizur Rehman, in a Chittagong court indicated this consignment was being imported from Hong Kong by the United Liberation Front of Assam (Ulfa), a major separatist group in India's troubled north-east.

Rehman said he worked the deal after being paid a hefty advance by Ulfa's military chief, Paresh Barua.

But Mr Barua was not importing this huge consignment for his group alone, say officials.

Over the past 10 to 12 years, Ulfa has emerged as a major player in the illegal arms trade in South Asia.

Buying "Chinese arms" where they are cheapest, the group would then sell them on at a profit to bulk buyers such as Maoist rebels in India and Nepal, it is alleged.

In the process, Ulfa paid for its own arms imports and also built up huge bank balances to finance its separatist campaign.

When Bangladesh's new government cracked down on Ulfa last year and detained almost their entire top leadership nearly $1bn (£0.6bn) was seized from more than 40 bank accounts operated by the group.

Bangladeshi and Indian intelligence officials say that, while a part of these funds was secured through extortion and trading activity, the bulk of it came from the illegal arms trade.

They told the BBC that after the 2004 Chittagong port seizure, Ulfa turned to a new source of Chinese weapons, the United Wa State Army.

Two senior Ulfa rebel leaders, on condition of anonymity, corroborated the intelligence claims.

They said that the weapons manufactured by the Wa rebels were "initially inferior" to those made in China, but within a few months the "production defects were sorted out".

"What we now buy from the Was are a perfect copy of the original Chinese weapons. And they are much cheaper and are also handed over to us at convenient locations near the Indian border," said a leader.

Gaganjit Singh, a former deputy chief of India's Defence Intelligence Agency, said: "Thousands of rifles, machine-guns, pistols and revolvers, grenades and much else went to the Indian Maoists - and before that to the Nepali Maoists - and the jihadi groups of Bangladesh and the separatist armies of north-east India through this conduit."

Hotel meetings
Chittagong has emerged as the hub of the trade, say officials.The arms dealers and rebel leaders were spending so much time in Chittagong hotels that Ulfa eventually bought a number of city properties for their meetings.

Senior Bangladeshi officials in the city told the BBC that once Ulfa had the consignments delivered to them, they would use a network of Bangladeshi arms dealers to settle deals with buyers in India, Nepal and Bangladesh.

"The consignment would then be split into small, well-concealed packages and carted off to their destinations," admitted one Bangladesh arms dealer on condition of anonymity.

The conduit fell apart when the Bangladesh government started their crackdown against the Ulfa and other Indian rebel groups.

That has made the principal suppliers, the United Wa State Army, rather desperate.

A representative of the group even contacted me seeking "direct contacts" with India's Maoists.

Indian intelligence is not able to confirm whether the Was have been successful in making "direct contact" with the Indian Maoists.

"But they will keep trying, because they have to sell their increasing stocks of weapons," says Gaganjit Singh.

"And who better than the expanding army of Indian Maoists to pick them up?"
 

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Crafting a richer India-Myanmar partnership


Rajiv Bhatia
India and Myanmar relate to each other as immediate neighbours, linked by geography, history and age-old ties of religion, culture and interaction at people's level.
In presenting a dispassionate evaluation of the recent visit to India by Senior General Than Shwe, Myanmar's "strong man," two useful tools are rear view and plainspeak. They would indicate that India-Myanmar relationship has grown in range, depth and vitality in the past decade, but it is not without vulnerable spots.

In the early 1990s, the government of India showed the capability to take a long-term view by shifting to a 'two-track' policy on Myanmar. It chose to build state-to-state relations while continuing to support the cause of democracy. As head of a relevant division in the Ministry of External Affairs, I saw from close quarters how the shift evoked opposition. By persisting on that path, but also with due sensitivity, India began to achieve its goals. Gradually, the policy was backed by a wider political consensus. As ambassador in Yangon a few years later, I had the privilege of assisting the Ministers from the NDA and UPA governments as they conducted dialogue with their counterparts in Myanmar. These exchanges prepared the ground for Gen. Than Shwe's first, 'historic' visit to India in October 2004. He conveyed to us how he was impressed with India. Between then and his second visit last week, both countries worked hard to strengthen their relations.

Over the years, New Delhi has faced two kinds of criticism on its Myanmar policy. Realists argued that its pro-democracy stance had driven Myanmar into "China's lap." Later, they maintained that the engagement was moving too slowly. They failed to recognise that it was never in Myanmar's interest to choose China over India. Now curiously enough, there is talk of Myanmar playing China against India and India against China. It does not require rocket science to realise that the best policy for Myanmar is to befriend both. As for India's motivations and compulsions, they are far too well known to be delineated here.

The other criticism stemmed from ideologues and supporters of democracy in Myanmar who freely advised India to sacrifice its interests. It was difficult to heed their advice or expect them to appreciate the complex argument of realpolitik. As a democratic country, India would love to see democracy prevail in the whole world but it is not our mission in life to spread it globally. Nevertheless, we do sympathise with the victims of the regime, including refugees, the exiled and prisoners of conscience. Above all, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's commitment to Gandhian principles, courage and contribution to Myanmar are appreciated widely in India. In fact, many of us who had the unique privilege of meeting and interacting with her came away with a clear impression that she is an outstanding personality of our age.

Against this backdrop, it is noteworthy that the impact of the pro-democracy camp on India-Myanmar policy seems to have diminished considerably. This was evident throughout Gen. Than Shwe's visit as well as in the joint statement issued in New Delhi on July 27. Hidden in a 45-para statement was a small paragraph which reflected India's emphasis on "comprehensively broad-basing the national reconciliation process and democratic changes being introduced in Myanmar." This, together with informal indications available from the visiting delegation, left one in little doubt about the political realities. Even after the elections, expected to be held towards the year-end, there may not be any material change in the military's role. It is set to continue calling the shots.

Gen. Than Shwe's visit resulted in a commitment by both sides to further strengthen and broaden the "multidimensional relationship." A considered assessment would suggest that three aspects were of special significance.

Among political issues, a shared satisfaction with progress in bilateral relations was noted. Both Asean-related and sub-regional cooperation are significant, but what really matters is that India and Myanmar relate to each other as immediate neighbours, linked by geography, history and age-old ties of religion, culture and interaction at people's level. There is still insufficient realisation in India of what a powerful magnet our Buddhist sites represent for visitors from Myanmar. It was no coincidence that Gen. Than Shwe included a 24-hour stay in Sarnath and Bodh Gaya on a full moon night to pray to Lord Buddha, seeking spiritual solace and enlightenment.

The other important political issue was a common perspective on the reform of United Nations institutions, especially Myanmar's reiteration of support to India's candidature for permanent membership of the Security Council.

Border security and development appear inter-linked issues in dialogue. Activities of smugglers, insurgents and terrorists constitute a continuing threat to both countries. Hence it is logical for them to enhance their cooperation. Hopefully, the treaty on mutual assistance in criminal matters, signed during Gen. Than Shwe's visit, would spur new measures. However, India needs to do more to address the internal dimension of insurgency in Manipur and other border areas. Myanmar too will need to assist India more effectively, matching its words with determined and visible action. This may well be a critical test for our friendship with Myanmar.

Economic cooperation is now viewed as the central theme in bilateral relations. A target of $1 billion in bilateral trade has been achieved, albeit after a delay of three years. The balance of trade is unfavourable to India in a 5:1 ratio, posing a challenge to Indian companies. Are they going to be content with exports valued at only $200 million to Myanmar which is hungry for Indian products and services? Specific areas have to be identified; constraints need to be eliminated; and business promotion should be stepped up. Consensus on these issues emerged at an excellent meeting arranged by the FICCI with the business delegation, which included three Cabinet Ministers.

The most dramatic moment at the meeting came when U Thaung, Minister for Science and Technology, observed that Indian investments in Myanmar presently stood at below the quarter million-dollar mark, adding dryly that Indian business was taking "too long to come, unlike China and Asean countries." This seemed a wake-up call to India Inc. to re-energise itself for its own benefit.

The basket of development projects has been expanding at a rapid pace. About two-thirds of the joint statement related to them. After years of discussions, studies and negotiations, the stage is now set for commencing implementation of the flagship Kaladan multimodal transit transport project. When ready, it should contribute to the development of our northeast. The trilateral highway project too has been a subject of discussions and negotiations for long; it needs priority attention now. The range of areas covered by Indian projects is impressive — roads, railways, telecom, power, energy, hydrocarbons, remote sensing, agriculture, industry, IT and education. Let timely implementation be our mantra.

South Block may well be advised to leave the debate on weighty issues like geopolitical trends, rivalry in the Bay of Bengal and India-China 'power game' to academics. Instead, it should encourage our Embassy in Yangon to hone its project management skills and help India Inc. deepen its foray into Myanmar.

(The author is a former ambassador to Myanmar.)
 

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Myanmar media hails Than Shwe's India visit


Yangon, Aug 1 (IANS) The goodwill visit by Myanmar's military ruler Senior General Than Shwe to India was a great milestone for bilateral cooperation and friendship between the two countries, Myanmar's official media said Sunday.

The five-day visit by Senior General Than Shwe, chairman of the State Peace and Development Council, which was aimed at bolstering friendship between the two governments and the people of Myanmar and India, will provide further impetus for friendly relations, Myanmar's official daily New Light of Myanmar said in its editorial.

Than Shwe visited India July 25-29, and met with Indian President Pratibha Devisingh Patil, Vice President Hamid Ansari and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi. Many bilateral treaties were signed during the visit.

The visit would also help in improving geographical and cultural relations between the two countries, it said.

Friendly relations between the two countries have been further cemented thanks to reciprocal visits of state leaders of the two neighbours, the editorial said.
 

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India Myanmar Home Secretary Level Meeting Concludes

http://pib.nic.in/release/release.asp?relid=68804

Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty on Criminal Matters Ratified
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11:31 IST
The 16th National Level Meeting at Home Secretary Level between India and Myanmar concluded here last evening. Home Secretary Shri G.K. Pillai led the Indian delegation and the Myanmar delegation was led by U. Phone Swe, Deputy Minister for Home Affairs, Government of the Union of Myanmar. The leaders of two delegations exchanged the instrument of Ratification of Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty on Criminal Matters by signing the Protocol of Exchange.

At this meeting Shri Pillai raised concern on activities of Indian Insurgent Group operating along the India-Myanmar border and requested action against them by Government of Union of Myanmar. Issues relating to strengthening of intelligence sharing mechanism between the two countries, arms smuggling, drug trafficking, border management, border trade etc. were also discussed at the meeting.
 

Tshering22

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The only reason why NSCN and ULFA are kept alive are because GOI has vested interest with them to play politics. It is simply too obvious for any keep political observer in general to understand. When the same government was finding Khalistani terrorists a thread, it went to unimaginable extent to wipe them out of India and exterminate whoever were remaining on Indian soil. This same government once used unimaginable air power to quell terrorists in the most dreaded way that we see only Russians do these days. Then why is it that these terrorists of northeast continue to prosper and thrive despite so much effort and thought is indeed being put behind it?

Why is it that the Center not perform combing operations in entire NE, catch rebels or their supporters and simply dispose them off secretly? Is it because of bigoted "human rights"? That's the most pathetic excuse if it is what the GOI tells us. The Human Rights and "free, fair, open media of India" was also there when the above 2 counter-terror operations were carried out. How come that went on so successfully and eliminated terrorists while today it is not happening?

Take a guess folks. It's not that tough really.

___________________________________________________________________

As for Burmese ties with us or ties with any other neighbour for that matter, it is ALWAYS GOI that ends up ruining a otherwise very smartly cooked diplomatic recipe into a culinary disaster. The dal issue above is an example of that. So are Nepal and Bangladesh examples. The thing about all our governments (irrespective of which party) is that they take 1 step forward and 5 steps backward whenever it comes to showing their political and strategic acumen. Hence our unstable global image as bumbling clumsy Elephant rather than a fierce Tiger.

IMO the only way to further ties with the Burmese is to input stuff in their country and smartly using of our international funds rather than wasting them on donating to flood relief in Pakistan or wasting $ 100 million entirely on a small but aggressive island country or even wasting all our capability in pandering to votebank by allowing illegal fanatic immigrants into India. Rather than doing all that, GOI could spend sometime focusing seriously on Burma and hence forma gateway into entire Southeast upto Indonesia. Burma is rich in gas an oil while rest of the Southeast is extremely rich in primary products of agriculture and they are cheap too. Meaning that we can exponentially increase trade with every Southeastern nation where we can trade in quality as well as quantity and not only help ourselves but also help them wean off 1 single monopoly master called China that they are overly-dependent on.

A LOOK EAST policy should have initiated by looking at Southeast first rather than just talking or complaining about China. This is where Chinese are ahead of us; they don't waste time in useless debates to hog headlines and engage in trade and build political bridges into other countries, thus consolidating their position. This is further a bonus for them since Southeast is poor and doesn't have any political weight (which we can give them).

The reports above talk about Burmese soldiers engaging for our sake against terrorists. That is a big move considering that the country has been often coldly ignored by our previous governments in the past. Being a junta my analysis is that their government would obviously be a "Military First" kind of a government; something we should think about WITHOUT playing US's "Democracy Puppy Boy". Since Junta controls all their money and national assets, there is little we can do to get them to their people and hence we must think of how otherwise we can gain. Our private firms tying up with Burmese government's firms (I assume all are government firms there) and providing good stuff to them is the answer.

The answer gets clearer if we start pouring military goodies on them. Missiles, offering space cooperation for peaceful purposes like agriculture/weather (since it's a farming country mainly), infrastructure projects, IT development, military training, education programmes etc. These are the things that are seen as "big ticket" items in diplomacy. And this is what would enable us to win over them in the long run. We need a convincingly friendly neighbourhood, unlike the present no-where situation we are in.

Bangladesh was a golden opportunity lost when RAW allowed the cultivation of radical and fundamentalist BNP by Pakistan (via Saudi money) and in turn earn an opposition friendly to our enemy. Nepal has been another opportunity lost when we backed off not to support Gyanendra and made Maoists too strong. Pakistan is ... well you all know it already. The only ones that remain convincingly friendly are Bhutan, Maldives and Mauritius. We NEED to get Burma, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam into this "convincingly friendly" group ASAP.

What good is our government at anything if despite SE having common culture, faith, history, arts etc cannot use these attributes to make SE a stronghold of Indian might? :)
 

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/\/\/\ Punjab is more or less a plain land. NE is a hilly terrain. You have not lived there, so you have no idea. It's alright dude.
I think MR. Chidambaran is making good progress over there.
 

Tshering22

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US already interferred with our relations with Iran now it seems they are trying to do the same with Burma??
Old habits die hard...LOL! Some of the strategists in Obama circle often confuse us with Pakistan and hence think that just because we have a ninny PM, we can be pushed around. Next time if US government asks us to "act against Myanmar", we should offer a deal in exchange:

Get rid of all our terrorists in Pakistan and NE and we will think about what US says. =xD

LF, you must understand that Iran is a very different piece of bread than Burma. Iran's clerical regime has a rather compulsive habit of shooting itself on the foot ALWAYS. It has been done numerous times. Just when China was about to offer them some goodies, they created a storm out of nothing when Chinese named Persian Gulf as Arabian Gulf (which China later corrected in Asian Games). When Russia couldn't deliver 1 system (compared to so many it did before), Ahmedinejad went berserk and called Russia a "Western slave". If Iranian government had a spark of common sense and Realpolitik in them rather than the mumbo jumbo government they run, they would realize that Russia and China were the only 2 countries that had any significant power in UNSC to help Iran in the future if not now. And as if this stupidity was not enough, Iranian supreme leader went gung-ho on us with his Islamic-world-should-help-'Kashmir'-against-India bullcrap.

Burmese on the other hand are very quiet and reserved kind of a government who don't involve in controversial situations like Iran, Pakistan and North Korea. They neither want trouble nor are they interested in exporting trouble. Hence this no-nonsense-straight-business-if-you-want attitude of Burma is more convenient for our government to handle. All it needs is a simple matter of little trust of theirs and we can see oil and gas pipelines coming into India rapidly in a few years, driving the cost of gas down and making many more households energy-content.

Thus, handling Burmese even if it means dealing with a meddlesome American government doesn't really pose a diplomatic problem with GOI.

"India does not believe in thrusting democracy down others' throats,"
This line is the smartest diplomatic answer Indian officials gave to the West vis a vis Burma. Not only does it convey a "shut up and mind your own business" in polite words, but also sets the onus on West to mend its ties with Burma at their own risk.

This is difficult to be followed with Iran because of its own politically-suicidal decisions as well as it being on a collision course with another excellent friend of ours: Israel.
 

Tshering22

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/\/\/\ Punjab is more or less a plain land. NE is a hilly terrain. You have not lived there, so you have no idea. It's alright dude.
I think MR. Chidambaran is making good progress over there.
I do now live in Sikkim (whenever I am not traveling which is most of the time LOL). Also, I have been frequent to Gangtok visiting my relatives a lot when in schooldays so I am not so alien to mountains :). And I know how mountainous this region is starting with my own state. Terrain has little to do with counter-insurgency and CT especially when involving specially trained units if you take a look at IA's record of tackling the kind of terrorism: maximum in mountainous areas via J&K.

If you are talking about IA rolling down a tank towards Harimandir Sahib, then you are right about terrain. But remember that was a final battle (although a very wrong approach despite having options, but that's offtopic). Our special forces here in NE have a fearsome reputation already; recent felicitation of the SF-21 unit is well known. Not just them but other units like Ghatak units in J&K can expand into NE and induct more of our people so that their job becomes easier.

Combing operations are actually easier in the more-aloof mountainous communities than bustling metropolitans. China, Russia etc all have issues in their mountainous regions as well (their altitude is lower in general though). You see, this would need initiative. Again, an all-out operation requires only a few things, political will being the main thing:

- Censoring of bigoted rights groups
- Censoring of general news media for sometime (Congress is pretty good at this already you know)
- Using local recruit soldiers who are familiar with people and their mentality to conduct operations
- Tracking and hunting down instigators of unrests/bandhs for these terrorist organizations like that guy who paid Rs. 400 per stone pelter.
- Tracking and hunting down organizers, messengers and other such means of communication in rebel groups and villages that hold their sway.
- Once a significant blow has been delivered, start educating people about coming out of the tribal mentality into national mentality.

This total would take MAX 1 year along with Burmese cooperation maybe even lesser IF... our government sincerely follows it upto end with serious intent to finish it once and for all.

But that's where any insurgency becomes an everyday norm in our country; no will and only intention to play politics using terrorism.
 

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