Indo China War Simulation Thread

hit&run

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The froum is repository of knowledge due all its members. The spirit of volunteer-ship has been our strength as time to time members took the charge and provided their expert inputs.
Propaganda being my mainstay there is a high probability that I will be a biased observer.

I say, being less elitist and allowing all members to participate with my promise that I will keep the thread on track by sieving out irrelevant stuff @SwordOfDarkness is the observer here.
 

mist_consecutive

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Responding to the move made by @mist_consecutive will require playing the role of the PLA, GF and Air Force included.

In that role, certainly all advantage will be taken of his having placed two concentrations on two sharply defined spots, where they are completely vulnerable to long-range precision guided missiles and cruise missiles in general.

China will respond to degrade land, air and rail communications with the Indian Army detachments placed by @mist_consecutive.
I am still waiting for your counter :)

U guys considering Pakistan's involvement upto which level?
By the recent events of how CIA/USA toppled the Pakistani govt., I don't think Pakistan has any capacity to escalate, not without USA's approval. In the event of the Indo-China war, the USA will surely stop Pakistani interference in any capacity.

So unless anyone proves otherwise, till then -

Pakistani interference is limited only to intelligence sharing with China.

a sample counter plan from your side would be appreciated . That way i can know what all Things I'll have to keep in mind before making a counter strategy of my own
Tomorrow morning. I, in fact, got no time today to read even the news.

If am the observer then I will also call for the nuclear strikes. 🙂
I will lose whole arsenal on them before getting down.

The threshold of men I am ready to offer is 1 million.

Therefore please set the rules on escalation ladder spectrum. Currently we at street brawl level that is 1 on the scale of 10 at which nukes will start flying.
Nuclear escalation is not allowed. Anything below it will be allowed.

Nobody wants a MAD situation.

Actually, wait, I will set the escalation limit.
 

mist_consecutive

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Few more rules and regulations -
  • Present your attack/defense plans limited to theatre-level
    • Northern Theatre - Ladakh, Siachen, Himachal Pradesh
    • Central Theatre - Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Nepal, Sikkim
    • Eastern Theatre - Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh, Myanmar (if required)
    • Naval Theatre - Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean, etc.

      The reason I am trying to limit within the regions is that otherwise, it will get too complex and difficult to follow.
  • Pakistani interference will be minimal, only intelligence sharing with China.

  • Nuclear escalation and space warfare (Shooting down satellites, orbital weapons) is not allowed.

    A predicted Indo-China skirmish is unlikely to escalate full (i.e., into a nuclear conflict, or space warfare, shooting each other's satellites down. Which will inevitably invite other world powers into the game which China would try to avoid).

  • Unrealistic/outrageous outcomes or pre-conditions should be avoided (i.e., China hacks Indian communication network, China assassinates COAS, etc.)
 

mist_consecutive

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Also, I will serve as umpire and observer. I believe I have enough strategic knowledge about weapons and warfare to make the correct judgment. Others can, of course, correct me.

All replies to defense plans (I am excited to go through @WARREN SS plan), rules, and example counter (as requested by @Angel of War) tomorrow.
 

Joe Shearer

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It will take time.

I've just tabulated the PLA GF, and listed the airbases and numbers of types at each.

So another day's work.
 

Joe Shearer

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Why don't you use CMO for simulation? You can use steam to download it
On the simulation that is on-going, that is precisely the system we are using. The intention of the team playing India is to learn better how it works, then acquire it.

Since you have mentioned it, you probably also know that CMO takes an enormous amount of detailing; what is ready-made on it is not useful for realistic gaming. So every Corps, every division, every brigade has been identified, located (or re-located), and detailed capabilities are being drawn up, since the composition of an Indian brigade, regiment or battalion is different from the examples given.

The same exercise has been done for both the PAF and the IAF, and the PN and the IN. Neither side has revealed its specific re-locations to the other. Only known open-source information about the other side's original locations are available, as during the game, there will be structured opportunities to verify locations of formations, through land reconnaissance, aerial manned and unmanned reconnaissance, and satellite reconnaissance.

There are also strict metrics laid down about progress of formations per day, and per hour, about logistics demands due to materiel requirements, about serviceability of aircraft, progressively, as the days go by, and others.

This is where India will occupy today and where China will occupy tomorrow,
It's too fake
I said India has no ability to attack,
Where do you think India can easily occupy
There is no specific measure
Two things - unless you see for yourself about the steps and preparation being done, how will it be possible to say whether or not something is possible or impossible? The only thing is that an engagement with the PLA is planned for a future date, when it may be a narrower gap between the two sides.

Second, just to bring you up to date, we are not gaming that one at the moment.
One of the senior members has decided that to cut off an awkward and unoccupied and undefended salient may be a good opportunity to test PLA resolve and capability.

The rest of us are preparing responses to it, representing the PLA GF and PLA AF. I am taking more time than the others, because it seems useful to go through a sub-set of the preparation we did in ik

It is being played through text messages, it is to be hoped maps will be extensively used. No metrics have been defined for use.

Moreover, the more critical C4ISR capability, electronic warfare capability, wheeled armored vehicles' use of roads for interspersed operations, the firepower assault capability of informationized artillery, and the accompanying support capability of joint logistics
There is no way to measure it specifically,
Not in the CMO simulation, nor in real life, but exceptions exist. In the CMO simulator, one of the members has used EW facilities and undone half the EW capabilities of the opposite side (in a different game).

We can only game in a speculative fashion; you understand that there are limits to modelling.
 

Joe Shearer

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Also, I will serve as umpire and observer. I believe I have enough strategic knowledge about weapons and warfare to make the correct judgment. Others can, of course, correct me.

All replies to defense plans (I am excited to go through @WARREN SS plan), rules, and example counter (as requested by @Angel of War) tomorrow.
This is good for the sake of getting things going, but in general, a person setting a plan is not the right person to be either observer or umpire.

It is difficult to remain neutral under the circumstances.

However, let it be the way you have suggested. Makes no difference for a simulation played at a relaxed level.
 

mist_consecutive

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Why don't you use CMO for simulation? You can use steam to download it
Interesting, I was not aware, let me have a look.

I said India has no ability to attack,
Where do you think India can easily occupy
There is no specific measure
Moreover, the more critical C4ISR capability, electronic warfare capability, wheeled armored vehicles' use of roads for interspersed operations, the firepower assault capability of informationized artillery, and the accompanying support capability of joint logistics
There is no way to measure it specifically,
You have to maintain a level of generalization. If you are willing to go into such nitty-gritty detail, not only it will extremely difficult to impossible to simulate with any accuracy at all, few members including me won't have so much time and patience to do the same.

For example, you are talking about EW and "more critical C4ISR", and "electronic warfare capability". Now, both of them are pretty qualitative, not quantitative. So, for a small example, an EA-18 "Growler" with AN/ALQ-99 jammer pods contains a more diverse threat library, jamming methods and power, than Su-30s with KNIRTI SAP-518 jamming pods.
But how will you simulate that ?

You are talking about logistics capability, but what determines who has better logistics, may I ask? You will say, yeah, China with cargo drones, autonomous vehicles and 4-laned highways surely does have better logistics, don't they?
Yet, after facing the reality of mountain warfare, China switched to humble mules for their logistics on South Pangong Tso once they realized such theatrics don't really convert to tactical advantage.


Bottom line is, you can't correctly simulate such high-degree of detail and abstraction, you need to set some generalisation rules.
 

Angel of War

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Kindly Note -
*I haven't included 33rd armoured division under 1st strike as it is now placed under Army HQ as HQ reserve
* 8th Mountain Division and respective Independent brigades of XIV corps deployed along The LoC have not been considered in the ORBAT since they are already defending a volatile front .
 

mist_consecutive

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Defense Plan (counter-attack)

View attachment 153654

View attachment 153655

View attachment 153660

View attachment 153663

Objective:
Anahilate Indian Positions in Demchok And Maintain a Strategic presence in the area
To nullify Any reinforcement for Indian Attacks on Zanda County


Background: Attack is Launched against positions of Zanda county.In Retaliation to that To Nullify attack
PLA Tibet HQ command ordered to launch counter Offensive on Demchok to Permanently cut it off from Indian territory

Historical relevance of Demchok


The attack on Demchok


In October 1962, the Demchok sub-sector was held by the 7 J&K Militia. The PLA launched an attack on October 22.

According to the book, A View from Other Side of the Hill , which used Chinese sources: “The attack was in the form of two pincers aimed to meet at Kariguo , thus cutting off the route of withdrawal from Shiquan River Valley. The 3 B/11 R Group carried out a wide outflanking move on Night 27/28 Oct from Jiagong southwards to Zhaxigang and then turned northwest towards Kariguo behind Demchok. …This was the northern inner pincer. The outer pincer in the North was provided by 3rd Cavalry Regiment and the 4th Division Reconnaissance Company. Since the southern outflanking move by the 3 B/11 R Group was delayed, the trap could not be closed fully. Indian troops were able to withdraw during the Night 27/28 Oct to Koyul and Dungti in fairly good order.”

The Chinese narrative mentions that on October 28: “the Chinese troops had achieved their objectives and had occupied the Kailash Range that dominated the eastern bank of the Indus Valley. All the seven Indian strongholds in this sub-sector were removed and New Demchok itself was captured.”

The PLA eventually withdrew, but occupied the southern part of Demchok .

The Indian media often speaks of ‘difference of perceptions’ between India and China on the LAC’; it is the consequence of Chinese advances in Ladakh in the early 1960s as well as during the 1962 War.

The Chinese attack on Demchok in 1962

The two ‘perceptions’ create a dangerous situation with two de facto Lines of Actual Control (LAC). It is not only in Demchok, but in 11 other places, also that India’s and China’s views differ. From north to south, they are: Samar Lungpa north of the Karakoram pass, Trig Heights, Depsang Plain (which saw a serious incident in April 2013), Pt 6556, Chanlung nalla, Kongka La, the ‘fingers’ at Siri Jap near the Pangong Tso, the Spanggur Gap, Mt. Sajun, Dumchele, Demchok and Chumar (which witnessed a massive incursion as President Xi Jinping arrived in India in September 2014).

Dumchele: a Security Risk

Though since 1962, the border is closed, it does not mean that there are no ‘exchanges’ along the LAC.

Not far from Demchok, a place called Dumchele witnesses a good deal of smuggling between Tibet and Ladakh. Local herders visit the shops in Dumchele, which gets its supplies from a Tibetan mart on the other side of the range; the Chinese goods are later clandestinely brought to Leh. While visiting the bazaar in the capital of Ladakh, if you wonder how there are so many Chinese bowls or other cheap stuff, the answer is Dumchele.

An author describes the place thus: “The right bank, just as is the left bank of the Indus, is dotted with scrub and tsama with many grazing grounds. Directly to the east of this lake and just about 4 km away is the large Chinese market of twenty shops of Dumchele, which is actually in Indian territory. About 6 km behind it is the large and spacious shelf of the Chang La (5,300 m) through which the Chinese have built a truckable road to Dumchele.”

Smuggling happens when the Indus freezes in winter. The ‘trade’ has been going on for years on a rather large scale (some say more than 100 crores annually).

In a paper for Research and Information System , Dr Siddiq Wahid writes: “Dumchele has for some years now been a trading post between residents on this side of the LAC and the Chinese side. The PLA has set up a military post at its edge near a hillock and apparently encourages this trade. This is done with some intensity for a few days in late November or early December. I asked Mr. Zangpo [a resident of Nyoma] if he had ever come to the grazing fields of Dumchele during the winter market fair. He replied that he had, although not very regularly. He then told us about some of the items, other than the usual consumer goods, that were traded (smuggled?) at Dumchele during this market festival. He mentioned tiger bones, tiger skins, rhino horns and sandalwood. He said that the Chinese buy these items enthusiastically from the ‘Tibetans’ who bring them there. Mr. Zangpo knew that this was an illegal activity as he was aware that the Ladakh police have been of late very active in stemming this trade and had made several arrests.”

A mart has been opened by the Chinese at a place called Kakzhung; this is regularly supplied by trucks coming from Tibet. From Kakzhung, goods are sent to Dumchele.

From a military point of view, the situation is far from healthy: the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) can gather intelligence on what is happening on the Indian side; that is why China closes its eyes (or actively encourages) goods trafficking.


To Be Contnd....
Excellent, that is actually the only way forward.



Few questions -
  • Explain the Chinese attack ORBAT. How much strength is China willing to dedicate to this attack. Give a brief summary of the equipment to be used.

  • The attack axis you marked, is pretty close to the Indian army bases at Nyoma (circled orange), which also has an ALG. Last year, Nyoma based a complete armored brigade and 6th Mountain Division. That is a significant amount of strength.

  • Since the Nyoma-Demchok road axis is open, and ALG can be used to fly in quick-reinforcements, a lot of counter-force can be pushed toward Demchok (marked green arrows). Do you have any plan of cutting that road off?

  • IMO, your second (southern) attack axis is through 6,000m high mountains, it won't be effective. Try to find valleys/passes.
 

Joe Shearer

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For example, you are talking about EW and "more critical C4ISR", and "electronic warfare capability". Now, both of them are pretty qualitative, not quantitative. So, for a small example, an EA-18 "Growler" with AN/ALQ-99 jammer pods contains a more diverse threat library, jamming methods and power, than Su-30s with KNIRTI SAP-518 jamming pods.
But how will you simulate that ?
It has been done, but by a top-class exponent. I can't, and none of the others in our five man team can.
 

Joe Shearer

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You are talking about logistics capability, but what determines who has better logistics, may I ask? You will say, yeah, China with cargo drones, autonomous vehicles and 4-laned highways surely does have better logistics, don't they?
Yet, after facing the reality of mountain warfare, China switched to humble mules for their logistics on South Pangong Tso once they realized such theatrics don't really convert to tactical advantage.
Some approximation can be done by metrics, at least as far as the demand side is concerned. It stipulates, for instance, how much is needed per named formation (brigade, division) per day.

After that, there is a bit of guesswork in doing the supply side.

For instance, if an infantry division consumes 500 MT a day, how many 12 MT trucks do I need to ship it? What is the speed of this truck convoy? How long will it take to get to the rear echelons on a battle field?

That is how I am working out my logistics issues. Our umpire at another game is very strict, and insists at least on the demand side being tracked.

If you remember the campaign in Europe, Patton's constant complaint was about Montgomery pinching all the trucks and all the supplies.
 

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