- Oct 3, 2020
Cold between whom usa and China?Doubt it. Navy is a massive capital expenditure service. It requires port infrastructure, fuel supply, fleet size, etc. all costing massive expense. For the next 10 years, Pak is out as they become another Somalia and becoming great at piracy operations trying to smuggle drugs into India. Pakistan in no way can afford to maintain even a minimum deterrence against the IN for now. The wild card is how far China will continue to pursue this arming Pakistan strategy and break global rules on technology transfer. Pakistan to maintain deterrence will focus on increasing the size of their nuclear arsenal and delivery capabilities.
On IN, believe it or not, it has to play a role in SCS as evidenced by the naval treaty signed with Vietnam. The need to be part of a US led naval theater in SCS and malacca choke points is a 100% reality now. No way to sugar coat or hide this anymore. No one is going to openly talk about it.But, every activity or purchase of IN points to establishing a greater Interop with the US Navy and the West. In return, the IN knows the PLAN will play a role in Indian Ocean. Hence, the new agalagea island base in Mauritius etc. So the naval Cold War is on. People just don’t want to accept it.