India's Submarine Woe's, Option 1 – Go for 18 Scorpenes

[Drsomnath999]

SOURCE: Joydeep Ghosh for My Take / idrw.org

India had procured 10 Project 877 Russian Kilo subs and 4 German Type 209 HDW (2 built in India) since mid 1980s, after which it was decided in late 1990s to have 'two line 30 year national submarine building programme' for the Indian Navy to boost its submarine strength. Unfortunately in 1990s the Indian Navy inducted just 4 submarines and the biggest mistake was to not opt for building more Type 209 HDW despite having the all documents under ToT.

All this and the recent blast & sinking of INS Sindhurakshak along with the ill-fated attempt to upgrade INS Sindhukirti submarine in HSL at Vizag have left Indian Navy with 12 submarines out of which only 6 to 8 are available for patrolling, most of which are over 20 year old. This means that by the time Indian Navy will get all 6 Scorpene submarines under P75, ie by 2020 Indian Navy will be left with just 6 old subs (heavily upgraded 4 Type 209s and 2 Kilo inducted in late 1990s) and 6 new subs. Even if we go by the 'two line 30 year national submarine building programme' no one knows when we will have the required submarines that can be considered as good numbers.

So in order to have enough submarines to defend India's maritime borders the Indian Navy can opt for 2 options, Option 1 is to go for 18 Scorpene submarines.

Why go for 18 Scorpenes

• 1)Simply bcoz selecting the P75I design from RfP to production will take atleast 12 yrs with 2 yrs for RfP, 3 yrs for ToT and setting up production line and 7 yrs to roll out the first sub , we don't have that much time and it will affect the operational capability of Indian Navy
  
• 2)Even if P75I selection is done by 2018 the first submarine will role out only by 2026 atleast and by that time Indian Navy will be left with just 6 Scorpenes, it will affect the operational capability of Indian Navy
  
• 3)Considering that 8 of the 13 submarines are already beyond 20 yrs in service and as per 30 year sub making plan Indian Navy was supposed to have atleast 24 subs by 2030, its not a good idea to wait for P75I to fructify

How to do it

1.Considering that Mazagaon Docks (MDL) has said that after 2015 it will roll out a Scorpene submarine every 9 months. It will be much better idea to increase the number P75 Scorpene submarines to 18 with first 6 (hull 1 to 6) currently being built left alone for now (hulls to be completed by 2016 and all 6 launched by 2020) and next 6 (hull 7 to 12) being AIP powered (provided Stirling AIP is chosen, the most deployed worldwide) with production starting from 2018 onwards. However development of DRDO/NMRL AIP can still go on provided that AIP is used on the Indian designed submarine later after 2030

2.By the time the last batch of 6 P75 Scorpenes (hull 13 to 18) enter production sometime in 2024 it will be time for the 1st P75 Scorpene for upgrade/refit ( hull 1 launched in 2015),

i)This is the time when Indian Navy can ask MDL to try and add a VLS missile firing capsule (for firing Brahmos/Nirbhay SLCM)/ module into it and test it

ii)Once successful then remaining 5 hulls of the first batch of P75 Scorpenes can be added with missile firing capsule / module
iii)With the AIP module (Stirling AIP having been selected) added in 2nd batch of Scorpenes, the same AIP module can also be added into the 1st batch of P75 Scorpenes (hull 1 to 6) giving them immense potential.

iv)Once that is done the 3rd batch of P75 Scorpene (hull 13 to 18) to be built from 2024 onwards (launched 2030 onwards) can easily include Stirling AIP and VLS missile firing modules.

v)Similarly when it will be time for 2nd batch of P75 Scorpenes (AIP powered hull 7 to 12) to be upgraded (built 2018 onwards and launched 2024 onwards & upgraded 2032 onwards) we can add the missile firing VLS modules into them (which would have been successfully tested on 1st Scorpene launched in 2015 & upgraded sometime in 2025). That will give 2nd batch of Scorpenes immense potential with VLS missile firing module (for firing Brahmos/Nirbhay SLCM)

vi)This will mean that all 18 Scorpenes will eventually be AIP powered and VLS missile firing subs.

Benefits

1)This pattern if adopted will give MDL submarine makers immense confidence to design any type of submarine quickly with high quality standards.
2)It will eventually help recover the cost incurred for setting up the P75 line.

Once that is done India could refocus on making Type 209 submarines, 12 in all (having sat on its ToT long enough) with missile firing VLS modules already tested and deployed with more Indian elements (India made steel) & DRDO designed AIP, much the same way as we are now doing with the Bofors guns. If the Type 209 production starts by 2030 Indian Navy can hope to get 30 submarines (18 Scorpenes & 12 Type 209 submarines) by 2040 as the expertise of making 18 submarines will allow them to churn out the Type 209 at a much faster rate.

India's Submarine Woe's, Option 1 – Go for 18 Scorpenes | idrw.org

India's Submarine Woe's, Option 2 – 3 More Scorpene, Scrap P75I & Build 6 SSNs

(Will be published tomorrow )

Even if P75I selection is done by 2018 the first submarine will role out only by 2026 atleast

that sentence sums it all what immature logic the writer is depicting

meanwhile india's MoD have already decided to fastrack Project 75I project . I dont think it would take year 2026 to roll out 1st
Project 75 I sub
thats ridiculous

BTW buying upgraded Scorpene looks a safe bet for the time being but still project 75 itself is being delayed on delivery ground WTF the author beleives it wont happen if we choose scorpene for Project 75I

CHEERS

 

[Apollyon]

This is the most profound piece of bullshit i have read in a long time.
Damn this is from 'idrw', no surprises here.

 

[arnabmit]

I agree on the Type 209 part... but about the Scorpenes, a follow on order of 6 more would be good. By that time P75I should be ready to start manufacture, get total 12 of those. Total 24 subs in 15yrs.

You should have read this in the link:

NOTE : Articles in " MY TAKE " Section are written by Readers of idrw.org , Opions expressed here are of Indiviual authors and not that of any team member of idrw.org , Readers can send in their write ups or articles at [email protected]

This is the most profound piece of bullshit i have read in a long time.
Damn this is from 'idrw', no surprises here.

 

[pmaitra]

This is the most profound piece of bullshit i have read in a long time.
Damn this is from 'idrw', no surprises here.

I wouldn't denounce IDRW, but for this particular article, I agree, it is not very convincing.

 

[nirranj]

otty: this is the situation... P75 struck in MDL and P75I waiting for clearance... It would be better to put a cap on building submarines with TOT after the P75I subs enter service and start designing our own conventional subs.

we could better create a assembly line for SSN - SSGN hybrid submarines...

6 SSBN's, 12 SS(G)Ns along with 12 Conventional subs will be better...

 

[Dinesh_Kumar]

IMHO, do the following:
> Lease 2 New Akula nukes from Russki (Over and above current nos.)
> Get more ASW assets like TU-142 or Il-38 or P-8I planes, and ASW destroyers
> Some of our Kilos are in Dry docks for 2-3 years. Get 'em back into action quickly (6-8 months)
> Start indegenous sub building programme - use outside consultants if reqd.

 

[arnabmit]

My take:

Step 1: Order 6 more Scorpene with AIP. This will recover the infra cost of the assembly line.

Step 2: Choose one of the 3 for P-75I, for 2 to be bought and 4 produced in-house, with a follow-on order for 6 more. Must have VLS and AIP.

Offence Priority : Amur 950
Stealth Priority : Evolved Gotland - A26 Class
Economic Priority : Bigger Scorpene class

Step 3: Once the bigger nuke reactor is successful, build 6 SSBN based on the bigger (~150MW) reactor.

Step 4: Delegate ATV1-ATV4 with the current 83MW reactor to SSN role and build ATV5 & ATV6 for the same SSN role.

 

[p2prada]

18 Scorpenes is going to need a fresh contract. The current one is 6 + 3 options. 9 subs is the best we can do before P-75I kicks in. Looking at the situation, it looks like we will go for the options.

If we choose the heavier version of Scorpene in the P-75I then that only serves to get a better deal instead of a fresh single vendor contract for 9 more Scorpenes which will end up coming at bloated prices.

Btw, the author's concept of VLS isn't right. The current Scorpenes are too small for VLS. The version with VLS is planned to be much bigger.

His method will end up breaking half our procedural clauses regarding tenders anyway.