Indian Ocean Developments

ankur

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but the missile is supposedly agile enough to hit moving targets otherwise chinese are not foolish enough to develop such type of systems.also keep in mind of aegis BMD systems which are fitted on USN ships.they must have considered these things .don't they?
 

Yusuf

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Ballistic missiles cannot be agile. Only cruise missile can be agile in the sense maneuvereable.
 

ankur

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agile in sense that they can perform manoeuvres in terminal phase and supposedly has missile defence countermeasures
 

bengalraider

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china is also developing the new anti-ship ballistic missile having ballistic path and a cruise missile like terminal phase reportedly based on it's DF-21 missile.though it's primary objective as i think is to attack USN carrier strike groups but don't u think the same missile with improvements in it's range and accuracy in near future can pose a serious threat to IN surface combatants ships?
The key to using such a weapon is having the ability to locate the aircraft carrier battlegroup and more importantly the carrier in thousands of miles of open ocean while it is moving, most american carriers easily do 30+knots i.e around 56kmph. The americans know precisely where their ships are because they have the largest array of global positioning and locating satellites(read camera and radar mapping spy sats)in the world not to mention a huge undersea array of hydrophones that tracks ship movements. THe chinese at the moment have nothing of the sort and are not poised to have something even close to the same in the near future. i.e the chinese cannot use their much vaunted assasin's mace because they have no friggin idea where a carrier is exactly(few privileged individuals have that info) . even if they somehow manage to locate a CBG.a DF-21 has a CEP of 300-400m given that a suitably mordenised missile might have a lower CEP say of 100-200m it will still be a longshot to sink a carrier without using a tac nuke warhead in which case it's going to be bye bye beijing courtesy the minuteman 3.
 
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bengalraider

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Yusuf and BR, good points. BTW, wanted know, what would be the impact of 'pearl or strings' ports that China seems to be building?
I believe th the String of pearls is more to benefit pakistan and annoy india than any real use to china, china has already secured energy supplies from russia and venezuela via the pacific . they may be disturbed by a blockade of the gulf routes but ther is little if anything we can do to prevent ships bearing the flags of third countries from carrying oil and gas to china. What the string of pearls does however is supply china with logistics bases for it's relatively sophisticated SSK fleet to undertake long patrols in the IOR which hithero they wre unable to undertake due to logistics issues. they also provide the chinese(especially the cocos) with an opportunity to keep an eye on us and know what we are upto. In the case of an indo pak war they would provide pakistani ships with safe ports of call ie we shall not be able to do a "Karachi" again as the ships will be dispersed.

As far as protecting energy supplies form the gulf is concerned gwadar is the only base other than pasni the chinese really require for that to happen.
 

pankaj nema

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Indian ocean will be dominated by US navy for sure.With Indian navy as next
China has 75 % of its fleet in the pacific. Since our force is in for a big expansion with China in MIND,
china is really not a " Naval threat "

Gwadar and Karachi both can be blocked if need arises
Gwadar is useless . Rather the long road to the mainland can be bombed.

During both KARGIL and PARAKRAM .Indian Navy was just 12 nautical miles off the pak coast ie just
where the international waters begin.

Doing a "karachi" again is a "must" in a conflict. Otherwise what else is there to do for the navy.

Karachi harbour will be "CLOGGED" by the sunk Pak navy boats.

What for are we investing so much in defence
 

ankur

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i was just reading an american article on how ASBM will complicate entry of USN in case of a taiwan scenario.also the article revealed the fact that this 2000 km range ASBM is just the first phase of this program.it will be followed by a more accurate and longer range version which willl be ultimately be transformed into a regional/intercontinental precision strike weapon.so u can't just right off the ASBM
 

bengalraider

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Indian ocean will be dominated by US navy for sure.With Indian navy as next
China has 75 % of its fleet in the pacific. Since our force is in for a big expansion with China in MIND,
china is really not a " Naval threat "

Gwadar and Karachi both can be blocked if need arises
Gwadar is useless . Rather the long road to the mainland can be bombed.

During both KARGIL and PARAKRAM .Indian Navy was just 12 nautical miles off the pak coast ie just
where the international waters begin.

Doing a "karachi" again is a "must" in a conflict. Otherwise what else is there to do for the navy.

Karachi harbour will be "CLOGGED" by the sunk Pak navy boats.

What for are we investing so much in defence
We shall not be able to do a Karachi without hitting at least three ports(Karachi, Gwadar, pasni) simultaneously after the pearls become operational and to deter India from carrying out another massive and debilitating assault on the PN I expect the PLAN to place some of it's assets in pakistani ports as guardians . i.e the message being if we hit the pakistanis we have to hit the chinese giving them an excuse to hit back. Are we willing to take that chance remains an open question.
It is never a question of whether the IN has the capability to hit these three ports the question always was and always will be whether the mandarins in SB have the balls to order such an assault knowing it might bring the Chinese into the war.
 

bengalraider

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i was just reading an american article on how ASBM will complicate entry of USN in case of a taiwan scenario.also the article revealed the fact that this 2000 km range ASBM is just the first phase of this program.it will be followed by a more accurate and longer range version which willl be ultimately be transformed into a regional/intercontinental precision strike weapon.so u can't just right off the ASBM
The Americans have always played up the "shashaojian" more than called for. While some part of the threat is credible(NO one can in war write off anything) it is still a question of when if anytime can the Chinese gain the capability to spot a carrier in the open ocean. Not to mention american ship launched BMD systems have been tested and are coming into line.
What the Americans really have to fear from the Chinese is the other assassin's mace the one that few know about since the early 2000's the Chinese have been experimenting with small parasitic satellites and anti-satellite weapons these are being developed for one reason only.The Chinese watched in awe as the superior C4ISR capabilities of the allied armies ground the once "4th largest army in the world" to dust in the sands of Iraq .america could see hear and know the next move of their enemy while the Iraqis in comparison were fighting blind. the Chinese in the case of any future conflict with the Americans plan to deny them that overwhelming advantage; expect american satellites to go blank as hit by Chinese anti satellite weapons some american satellites may be hacked courtesy the parasitic micro satellites , lastly expect a massive attack on american commerce and military facilities not to mention media by Chinese hackers propagating misinformation and propaganda. The chinese will blind and confuse america and then attack this is the real shashaojian.
 
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pankaj nema

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I believe China is not going to gang up against India along with Pakistan. It opens up the field for US navy
which has a far stronger presence in Arabian sea and Persian gulf.

If There is major terror strike and India retaliates against Pakistan and there is WAR,will China tell the whole world that it is helping Pakistan BECAUSE it supports terrorism against India.

Helping Pakistan is like rewarding terrorism The global public opinion is already with India after 26/11.

When the shooting starts Chinese will take their assets away. Why should they loose men and material for Pakistan.

The mandarins in south block cannot afford "not to retaliate."
 

ankur

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ok so strings of pearls strategy don't have a millitary dimension to it. is it just to secure SLOC's and fulfill china's enormous energy needs?idon't think so.
 

Yusuf

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At the moment yes. China doesn't have any spare boats to base them here. It has to worry about the US in south china sea more than surrounding india. China is not stupid to do that in indias backyard. A few listening posts here and there is all it will do for the moment,
 

Yusuf

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Reports have emerged that the US Navy is upgrading its submarine base at the isolated tropical atoll Diego Garcia, which is formally British territory.

The base improvements will allow its new class of SSGN nuclear submarines to operate from Diego Garcia, which is potentially noteworthy. The tiny island group is situated in the middle of the Indian Ocean, giving the US and its allies access to various strategic maritime choke points such as the Straits of Hormuz – the entrance to the Gulf – and the pirate-plagued waters of the Bab-el-Mandeb at the foot of the Red Sea.



Perhaps even more significantly in the light of recent events, Diego Garcia is a useful base for operations off the south-eastern coastline of Iran, close to the border with the lawless frontier regions of Pakistan.

Normally, a few tens of millions of dollars in base improvements wouldn't raise eyebrows even at a critical harbour like this one. But an increased presence of SSGN subs will be well worth bearing in mind for the various military forces active in the region.

This is because SSGNs aren't your average nuclear submarine. They are converted Ohio-class Trident ballistic-missile boats, recently retired from their old job under the terms of strategic arms-limitation treaties. But the US Navy saw no reason to get rid of the submarines themselves, and the removal of the Tridents left them with plenty of room for other things.

The rebuilt vessels can nowadays carry 66 elite special-forces frogmen, who will typically be Navy SEALs or possibly members of the new US Marines MARSOC outfit. Some reports suggest that up to 102 underwater warriors may be able to cram in for short periods. The subs will have a "dry hangar", an underwater docking bay allowing the frogmen to deploy from their mother ship aboard SEAL Delivery Vehicles (SDVs), minisubs which can carry them in to enemy coastlines.

One variant of the SDV is said to be armed with its own torpedoes, though these would probably be for use against anchored ships rather than Stingray or James Bond style undersea dogfights. There has also been some suggestion that the Advanced SEAL Delivery System (ASDS) might deploy from the SSGNs. The ASDS is a larger, enclosed mini-sub which can carry SEALs in warm dry conditions rather than delivering them into battle shivering and frozen. However, reports suggest that the ASDS programme has hit problems; it may be that only a single prototype craft will be available.

Once the frogmen are in action, perhaps ashore in coastal regions, in enemy harbours or far inland by river, they won't be lacking support. A normal submarine can, of course, launch cruise missiles to attack targets inland; but the SSGNs are something special in this regard. Each sub is said to carry up to 154 Tactical Tomahawks, robot kamikaze jets which can be remotely piloted to strike locations a thousand miles inland.

The UK lags well behind the US, as ever, in the field of amazing Team America-like organisations – despite the fact that the converted Ohio boats' Marineville-esque base will be located on nominally British territory.

However, the Royal Marines' Special Boat Service frogmen are well thought of in the international underwater-scuffler community ("the SBS are as hard as woodpeckers' lips"," one SEAL once told this reporter). The British Troy Tempests are somewhat lacking on the kit front, though, with the UK possessing only a single dry hangar attached to a relatively normal mothership. As for vessels capable of carrying 60 frogmen beneath the waves for months on end, or cruise missile firepower in the hundreds, for now the SBS can only dream.

Being submarine-based, all these things can be used even against countries with fairly capable air forces and surface patrols. The presence of SSGN-type platforms in a theatre means that any large body of water connected to the sea suddenly becomes a danger, potentially full of heavily-armed SEALs or underwater robot platforms such as the Talisman.

Various people in the Indian Ocean area will be viewing the announcement of the Diego Garcia upgrades with interest. ®

Free whitepaper – Taking control of your data demons: Dealing with unstructured content
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/04/07/marineville_in_diego_garcia/

Pretty old news this, but relevant to this thread.
This is the kind of importance the IOR has for the US. This is what will prevent any other navy coming anywhere close to challenge the US. India is now well dispensed towards the US and will not face any problems with the Chinese coming in. We will not have a 7th fleet coming threatening towards us, we may well get support from the US esp when it comes to maritime recon. I would go on to say that should there be any hostilities between India and China in the future and it spill over to the IOR, we may well receive ASW support from the US. At least in terms of intel.
 

sandeepdg

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We shall not be able to do a Karachi without hitting at least three ports(Karachi, Gwadar, pasni) simultaneously after the pearls become operational and to deter India from carrying out another massive and debilitating assault on the PN I expect the PLAN to place some of it's assets in pakistani ports as guardians . i.e the message being if we hit the pakistanis we have to hit the chinese giving them an excuse to hit back. Are we willing to take that chance remains an open question.
It is never a question of whether the IN has the capability to hit these three ports the question always was and always will be whether the mandarins in SB have the balls to order such an assault knowing it might bring the Chinese into the war.
That's an interesting point, Raider. But I don't think the Chinese value Pakistan so much that they will sacrifice their assets for them and they are neither stupid enough to provoke India on Pakistan's insistence ! Remember mate, no matter how much the Chinese love to play hardball and try to bully us, its the economic realities will drive our future relations, and India like the west is one of the most important trading partners of China. What value does Pakistan have for them or rather what can they give the Chinese ? Nothing other than a strategic location in the Arabian sea. But that is nothing compared to the opportunities that the Indian economy holds for them.
 

ankur

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even in the event of securing energy supplies in the future, will they not provoke us.
 

Soham

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That's an interesting point, Raider. But I don't think the Chinese value Pakistan so much that they will sacrifice their assets for them and they are neither stupid enough to provoke India on Pakistan's insistence ! Remember mate, no matter how much the Chinese love to play hardball and try to bully us, its the economic realities will drive our future relations, and India like the west is one of the most important trading partners of China. What value does Pakistan have for them or rather what can they give the Chinese ? Nothing other than a strategic location in the Arabian sea. But that is nothing compared to the opportunities that the Indian economy holds for them.
The recent news of China's intent of establishing military bases in Pakistan proves otherwise. Remember, Gwadar is as important for China, as it is for India. They're not going to sit back and watch it burn.
Now as BengalRaider mentioned, its a question of hitting Gwadar, Karachi and Pasni together. At the moment, I don't think its possible. It would only be possible once our new carriers join the Navy. Without them, it'd be hard to keep the PAF from hitting the Strike groups.

On the other hand, would we even try to do a blockade again ? Cold Start calls for a hard limited offensive, and it might make more sense to dedicate the navy to bombing the crap out of Pakistani military assets(within their range), and seeking to destroy their navy.
 

nandu

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India using navy to spread power, influence: Australian think tank

SYDNEY: India was making "great use" of its navy to spread power and influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), said an Australian think-tank
which observed that a new maritime "great game" was emerging there "as strategic competition between India and China becomes evident".

The report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) said that India was "obsessed" with China's entry into IOR and was making "great use" of its navy to spread its power and influence.

"A new maritime 'great game' is emerging in the IOR, as strategic competition between India and China becomes evident. Each has fears of being contained by the other. In China's case, because India is supported by Japan and the US. India promotes itself as the dominant power of the region. It's obsessed by China's entry into the IOR and is making great use of its navy to spread power and influence," the ASPI report added.

It went on to say that India was seeking the role of dominant power in the IOR. However, it also displays "considerable insecurity about the presence of other major powers" in the region.

"India sees itself as a 'threat attractor', at risk from terrorism, domestic insurgencies, arms trafficking and border disputes with its neighbours."

The report warned tensions would increase in the region in which more than 40 per cent of the world's conflicts occurred in 2008, including nine wars and many of the world's high-intensity conflicts, the New Zealand Herald said in a report.

Australia should maintain strong bilateral relations with leading players in the IOR, especially India and Indonesia and should work closely with India and South Africa to develop a declaration setting out broad principles of ocean management, the ASPI report said.

"The ocean was an increasingly important global trading thoroughfare, especially for energy supplies, and the risk of disputes over maritime sovereignty was magnified by the potential wealth beneath its waters."

It suggested that Australia and India should have strong mutual interest in enhancing maritime security cooperation in the region.

Though India "seeks to be the dominant power" in the Indian Ocean, bilateral defence and security cooperation agreements should be pursued with the country. But that should not "jeopardise" Australia's relations with other stakeholder countries in the IOR, the report said.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...Australian-think-tank/articleshow/5766473.cms
 

ankur

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i learnt that australian anti- sub aircrafts were continuosly used to track indian kilo class sub.so what about that for a trusted relationship in the future?again i get a feeling that despite australia's secondary status a IOR power it is trying to get a foothold in the region
 

Yusuf

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And what exactly are the australian interests in the IOR apart from serving the US? Australia is not a manufacturing country that it needs to protect its container traffic like china. Also its oil supplies is secured by the US.
So apart from sharing duties with the US, australia does not have as large a stake as china or india in the IOR.
 

Yusuf

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Actually australia is self sufficient in energy as it has enough oil, gas and coal and surplus for export. Oils consumption in australia is lesser than even netherlands or indonesia its neighbor across the sea.
 

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