I don't fully agree that the US and Russia have lost their edge in space technology.
You will agree with me if you have ever worked in heavy engineering/nuclear engineering/aerospace industry etc..
Technological edge has to be sustained by continuous industrial involvement. When after a cold war, you discontinue projects and shutdown factories and repurpose your space agency only for low cost Unmanned missions, added scientists & engineers who built things like Saturn V & Gemini have retired/died became inexperienced, workshops and machines reconditioned or decommissioned.
This explains why it took US over 10 years to launch SLS in space after making up its mind despite the fact that it was having Saturn V back in 1969. They have to import engines and other components of even satellites from Asia & Russia.
And no, US & USSR are no longer industrial and economic overlords they used to be. Emerging powers have closed gap and came far ahead. China's YF-100 & YF-130, Japan's LE-7, India's Vikas-X & SCE-200, France's Vulcan can pretty much alone or cluster enough to match or even outclassed RS-25 engine based SLS and even create bigger SHLVs. They have launched extra terrestrial probes, have all building blocks in place to send humans in space or plan manned moon landings, then these countries aren't suffering economic decline against US like USSR was facing. There are barely anything USSR & US could and new space powers can't today.
Difference being that new space powers are driven by the virtue of economic and technological goals of countries rather than a space race. So spending won't be haphazard and programs will be more sustainable than US.
There will be no superpowers in near upcoming world, only so many great powers like WW2 era.
I hope you are not suggesting that China has become the pre eminent space power on earth. Replacing the United States and Russia.
PRC has pretty much replaced ESA & RFSA and lags NASA only experience wise.. They have heavy lift system, YF-100 rocket engine in service; enough technology to produce SHLV, highly mobile launchers of all kinds, reusable rockets in trials, a space station in space, extensive experience in docking and berthing (added with in space refuelling and de orbiting), soft moon land and sample return capability good enough to prove their robotics and finally soft landing of Mars (which proves their IAD capabilities to penetrate other atmospheres).
Many of these technologies have been discontinued by US/Russia, in just mid or early stages of development/concept stages in India & EU. PRC lies behind only in number of human spaceflights and space probes which explains that it only has to catch up in operational capabilities with US.
It has all the building blocks tested and in service to be a prominent space power. China is pretty much a major space power now, ahead of USSR in cold war era.
The US is still the largest economy in the world and can allocate sufficient resources for space research.
No, China and Japan's economic outlook, their reserves and surplus allows them to put more budget than US, India can spend more than Russia & EU.
It's just operational requirements which prevent it. Just as without a space station design, it's useless for India to make an HLV.
Russia suffers from an under performing economy. They simply don't have the money to fund all their space dreams. You will see them progress quite fast in space if their economy picks up and generates surpluses.
They won't be able to outspend first tier powers anymore still. Rise and fall of great powers is essentially economics.
The international community led by the US alliance has established an gridlock of treaties and arms control agreements to shackle emerging nuclear powers like India. Unfair. Suddenly nuke testing has become a dirty word.
Not countries like India but only India. NSG was specifically formed to sideline India who had started emerging as great power after 1971.
Can any scientist guarantee that simulation would work 100%.
No, neither physical tests nor simulations can allow 100% success given mechanism remains same and geographical parameters might change. Problem with outerspace tests is that you can't even analyse failure or success.
Simulated test anticipating geographical will give 80-90% predictable results.
I agree that testing will involve costs and our short-term to medium term economic growth may suffer.
Tests at this stage will have a permanent and not a short/medium term strangulation for India's economic rise. Thermonuclear bombs are no jokes to be tolerated like ICBMs or ASATs.
Unless Indian national power reaches the level of acting with impunity, tests will only bring more bad to India on all other fronts than it would gain on nuclear front.
I know, man, I know.
