Indian Economy: News and Discussion

Blademaster

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Can you explain your basis for saying that? The projections from WB and IMF point toward continuous growth.

And regarding my previous point stating the leverage of a $8T won't be what it was:
In 2012
GDP:
US: $16.2T EU: $14.6 T China: $8.5 T

China was almost 60% of EU and 50% of US. When we do reach $8T in 2030, we'd probably be only 25% of the US and some 35% of the EU. China's $8T GDP was worth 11.2% of the world's GDP. When we hit $8T, we'd be around 5%. It isn't enough to grow rich, we need to grow richer quicker.

And what will magically change as we hit $7-8T? What can we do then that we can't do now, even if at a lower scale? Our govt's ability to spend per citizen would still be far below that of any western nation and it's not like we're getting new abilities overnight.

My grievance is that the Indian state doesn't even seem to be trying. All the hit jobs on India & BJP are released right from the onset of 2023. But only meek responses so far. There's nothing preventing them from doing it again. And again. And again. It's the behavior of a sitting duck, waiting to be butchered.

Capabilities, we will grow. But without intent, they're useless. We could have all the money in the world, but if we don't fight, then we'll lose it all. Until recent history, we were the richest nation of Earth. But it couldn't stop us from losing a third of our land and a quarter of our population. Rather than waiting forever, the govt. should seriously deal with these external threats. Waiting around until we hit 7 or 8 Trillion won't do us any good. Rather, use what we have properly, including the fact that we're the fastest growing economy.

It's not the dog in the fight, it's the fight in the dog.
Look at Japan and their 3 decades of "Lost Decade". They increased their productivity and sold more goods but still their GDP has not risen and and their per capita GDP remained flat. They have only seen their debt levels rising nothing else. And to top of it all, they are an aging society. I see the same trends with UK and Germany to a lesser extent. Germany will grow a little bit due to the influx of immigrants but not with UK. UK's growth will remain flat due to various reasons - They left the Eurozone and they need trade agreements to stimulate their economy but haven't gotten one trade agreement signed with major economies. Their population base is not growing but relying on the influx of immigrants to avoid the aging trend but still it is not enough. It is projected that in 2024-2025, UK's population will decline and its debt to GDP is now more than 100%. They have no new industries to drive their economy's growth.
 

nongaddarliberal

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But Britain do, France do, Germany do and Japan do. So why not India?
None of the countries listed have the power to resist US media narratives and agendas domestically. Japan maintains its social traditions, but its equally vulnerable as the rest to American economic and political narratives. UK public are COMPLETE puppets of the American liberal media. They go 2-3 further in whatever American madness they're exposed to. France is somewhat better only when it comes to dealing with islamists. In other issues like feminism, it tows the liberal line.
 

another_armchair

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Hindenberg report seems like messaging from certain quarters.

Toe our line or we will come out with more.

It is up to GoI to make an example out of them but hamam mein sabhi nange hain, SEBI included so everybody will look the other way, there will be back channel talks and things should settle down else GoI should treat it as a hostile act and punitive action must be taken against all parties involved.

Given how some of our own homegrown Fintech giants like Zerodha's Nithin Kamath frequently gives soundbytes like 'Indian market is overvalued... Indian market is risky... high P/E multiple...'.. they are like fodder for short sellers.. but arey bhai, where else will all the money go?

When people trade, they lose money. So they seek the safety of mutual funds with their risk capital, and leave the rest in fixed assets & easily liquidatable assets like FDs, bonds, precious metals and other instruments,

All those insurance funds will naturally pour some of their money into the markets. If LIC invested 90k+ crores in Adani entities and if those positions were unhedged, then there could be losses but given its LIC, they are pretty conservatively managed unless someone within GoI forced their hand like it has happened in the past too by under UPA rule.
 

ezsasa

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If LIC invested 90k+ crores in Adani entities and if those positions were unhedged, then there could be losses but given its LIC, they are pretty conservatively managed unless someone within GoI forced their hand like it has happened in the past too by under UPA rule.
had asked this question to another member, but didn't get an answer.

LIC stake might be some X amount now, what was the initial investment by LIC in adani ?
 

another_armchair

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Latest numbers are out. The pattern & duration of investment will have to be dug out.


1] Adani Enterprises: In this flagship Adani group company, LIC holds 4,81,74,654 shares, which is 4.23 per cent of total paid up capital of the company.

2] Adani Ports: As per shareholding pattern of this company for Q3FY23, LIC holds 19,75,26,194 company shares or 9.14 per cent stake in the company.

3] Adani Transmission: .s per the shareholding data of Adani Transmission for October to December 2022 quarter, LIC holds 4,06,76,207 shares or 3.65 per cent stake in the company.

4] Adani Green: As per the shareholding pattern of Adani Green Energy Ltd for recently ended December 2022 quarter, LIC holds 2,03,09,080 shares or 1.28 per cent stake in the company.

5] Adani Total Gas: As per the shareholding pattern of Adani Total Gas for recently ended December 2022 quarter, LIC holds 6,55,88,170 shares or 5.96 per cent stake in the company.

Of the above, only 1] Adani Enterprises is traded in the derivatives segment too so there is scope of hedging and cutting your losses but the others are not traded in derivatives, so LIC will have to take a hit.
 

another_armchair

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Hindenburg has just 5 employees as per the YouTube video.
Seems a fraud to me
Micheal Burry probably had fewer employees when he shorted the US mortgage bond market.

The rest as we know is history with even a movie made on him and others who shorted the bond market.

He still has a cult following though he did get a few things wrong post that period. Can't get lucky with doomsday predictions all the time.

 
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another_armchair

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@ezsasa



Entity
Previous LIC Holding
Recent LIC Holding
Adani Enterprises​
1.32 percent as of June 30, 2021​
4.23 percent​
Adani Total Gas​
2.11 percent in March Q of 2021​

5.22 percent by March Q of 2022.
5.96 percent​
Adani Transmission​
2.42 percent in Jun Q of 2021
3.61 percent​
Adani Ports​
11.9 per cent in September quarter of 2020
9.14 percent​
 

Knowitall

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So adani has slipped to the 7th richest man and has lost close to 22 billion now. Not hard cash obviously so it's manageable.

Question is what happens next? Will he recover or are we looking at something more serious.
 

SKC

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So adani has slipped to the 7th richest man and has lost close to 22 billion now. Not hard cash obviously so it's manageable.

Question is what happens next? Will he recover or are we looking at something more serious.
We need to ignore these reports. Dont give a damn for few days then it will lose relevancy and market will pick up again.
People did what that group hoped for. Indian market is not that mature.
 

Gyyan

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Nilgiri on stardef i trust him he doesn't like Modi and this is what he said even he thinks it's a hit job
View attachment 191581View attachment 191582
There is a lack of thought as a collective consciousness.
Division in small groups trumps our idea as nation especially on SM and politics.
You can't expect everyone in a country large as india to be on same page but still it shouldn't be this bad and people should be able to work as a whole despite our difference in cases which affect our nation as a whole and this is absent.
Leaders question whether our army did a successful SS for puny or non existent political gains.
People going for free stuff rather than development based projects.
Political science very well glorifies how groups can help us to prosper but history books doesn't show how lack of action as a whole affected us.
No material out there that signifies importance of one to think as a nation.
It has been there during our independence too everyone one was doing their own thing.
 

karn

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Private industry looking to increase not only localization of parts but also designs and the part that made me share this here ... Machinery for manufacture of components will also be localized.(watch from 8:08)
 

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