Indian Economy: News and Discussion

Haldilal

लड़ते लड़ते जीना है, लड़ते लड़ते मरना है
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Ya'll Nibbiars The Mumbai rainfall.

The Last 24 hours

Ephinstone 375 MM
Worli 353 MM
Dadar 337 MM
Matunga 325 MM
Cst Byculla 322 MM
Parla 318 MM
Chembur Wadala 315 MM
Malabar 299 MM
Sewri 298 MM
Bandra 289 MM
Goregaon 247 MM
Andheri 245 MM
Breach Candy 214 MM
Ghatkopar 198 MM
Vikhroli 197 MM
Borivli Kandivli 195 mm
Bhandup 195 mm

And still no flooding like the Seoul. But still some brown seopy defending and praising the Seoul and the west like the @Apollyon Nibba.

:truestory:
 

IndianSpiderman

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angryIndian

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It's nominal. Congo's current GDP per capita is 500$. No way they are going to be 4500 by 2040.
I know it's a nominal figure but this metric does give a general overview of the distribution of wealth.

Now,If you look at the IMF-listed countries, almost 118 of the 190 countries have a per capita income higher than $4500 ie almost 62% of the countries. By 2040 that figure should easily increase to more than 80%.

So if we are poorer than more than 80% of the countries in the world that would put a huge question mark over our progress and our future.
 

blackleaf

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I know it's a nominal figure but this metric does give a general overview of the distribution of wealth.

Now,If you look at the IMF-listed countries, almost 118 of the 190 countries have a per capita income higher than $4500 ie almost 62% of the countries. By 2040 that figure should easily increase to more than 80%.

So if we are poorer than more than 80% of the countries in the world that would put a huge question mark over our progress and our future.
Even if it is 5% nominal growth which I believe is an underestimate, that 5% would still be faster than most countries in the world and probably still on the upper end relative to other low income countries. India won't fall in relative per capita ranking if its per capita growth is more than those countries around it. Ruchir also predicted that very few countries would have >5% growth if you believe his predictions.
 

blackleaf

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Even if it is 5% nominal growth which I believe is an underestimate, that 5% would still be faster than most countries in the world and probably still on the upper end relative to other low income countries. India won't fall in relative per capita ranking if its per capita growth is more than those countries around it. Ruchir also predicted that very few countries would have >5% growth if you believe his predictions.
What India should aim for is at least 8% nominal growth (maybe 7% real + 4% inflation - 3% depreciation). This would put India around $10000 USD in 2040 assuming it is $2500 today.
The IMF lists India as having a per capita income of $2500 for 2022 at 5% annual growth that would be $4800 in 2040.
 

Suryavanshi

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@Apollyon you there mate?

What is the state of Power Electronics sub component in our country.
Do we make our own Mosfet, triac, diode etc
 

tribendra bisoi..

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Interesting chat about India's economy by Ruchir Sharma :

1. Indias working age population growth has slown down and will stop by 2050-2052.
2. Considering point 1 and overall slower global growth due to aging and deglobalization to some extent, India's new normal growth for next 18 years will be only 5%.
3. This means India's GDP per capita nominal will take 18 years to double, so GDP per capita in 2040 should be around 4500$ . 😿 (looks like he assumes that their will be currency deprecation, which will negate growth due to inflation, which is fair, since India runs perpetual deficit).
4. He is predicting above based on normal trajectory of policy making. To get to 7% growth there has to be some radical policy changes that get more women in workforce, improve labor force participation, etc. But he is not counting on them since in India changes are hard to make.
Institutions like IMF , world bank fails to predict 20 years in future . But here a individual is predicting . Anyone who predict 20 years ahead is not a economist but a astrologer .

And there are better astrologer in market than him

Screenshot (21).png
 

tribendra bisoi..

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I know it's a nominal figure but this metric does give a general overview of the distribution of wealth.

Now,If you look at the IMF-listed countries, almost 118 of the 190 countries have a per capita income higher than $4500 ie almost 62% of the countries. By 2040 that figure should easily increase to more than 80%.

So if we are poorer than more than 80% of the countries in the world that would put a huge question mark over our progress and our future.
And ahh .. as usual . Look who is here to celebrate doom and gloom of india .. :rofl:
 

Shuturmurg

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Btw, slightly off tangent, China has given full tariff free access to Bangladesh and Nepal. This is pretty big.

 

tribendra bisoi..

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Economist predicting elections is pure chutiyapa. Elections are not won on economy alone.
Have you seen prediction of IMF world bank with respect to Japan in 60s 70s , china of 70s 80s , brazil south Africa of 2000s . World is dynamic . Economic dynamics , technology , geopolitics keeps changing . Predicting 20 years ahead is astrology .
 

Shuturmurg

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Have you seen prediction of IMF world bank with respect to Japan in 60s 70s , china of 70s 80s , brazil south Africa of 2000s . World is dynamic . Economic dynamics , technology , geopolitics keeps changing . Predicting 20 years ahead is astrology .
Sure, but greater trend is there, global gdp growth rate is not going to return to 2000's level, that can be predicted with somewhat certainty.
 

Butter Chicken

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Btw, slightly off tangent, China has given full tariff free access to Bangladesh and Nepal. This is pretty big.

What will Nepal export?
Their biggest export to us is rebranded palm oil from Malaysia!

Except textiles absolutely nothing will go to China from BD(even that is doubtful)
 

tribendra bisoi..

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Sure, but greater trend is there, global gdp growth rate is not going to return to 2000's level, that can be predicted with somewhat certainty.
Nope ! Who in soviet wld have thought USA ll come of with something like computer and information technology sector , computer hardware sector ll be trillion dollar market , Nokia did nt predict arrival of smart phone , No one predicted USA china economic war , covid , russia ukraine war . Neither can we predict what policies govt of india ll follow in future . Economists have their limitations .
 

tribendra bisoi..

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IndianHawk

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Btw, slightly off tangent, China has given full tariff free access to Bangladesh and Nepal. This is pretty big.

Lots of Indian goods will end up in china through Nepal.

Also BDs will too import things from India and label it made in bd to fool chinkies.
 

Suryavanshi

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I hope his statement regarding Per capita income is a joke because If we manage a per capita income of just 4500$ by 2040, we would be counting ourselves amongst the likes of LDC countries like Senegal and Congo.
Mah man do you just count the digits to measure prosperity?
Have you not learned anything from Lanka?
What good would 20000 per capita do for you if rice is 100 dollars per kg and the same for 10000 per capita economy is 10 dollar per kg .

Prosperity depends upon the currencies purchasing power of goods and services.
 

tribendra bisoi..

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Rajasthan is preparing to take a big step towards boosting its economy with investments over Rs 10 trillion lined up ahead of the ‘Invest Rajasthan’ Summit, scheduled for October 7-8. state receiving 4,192 memorandum of understanding (MoUs) and letter of intent (LoIs) for the proposed investment of Rs 10.45 trillion.

This proposed investment can provide employment to over 950,000 people in the state. Around 40 per cent of the investment proposals received in the past few months as part of “Invest Rajasthan” have taken shape, a state government official said.

 

Roshan

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1. Wrong. Working age population have just started decreasing in developed world (other then Japan and Russia where its going for some time).
2. True but that was time of peak globalization and peak working age population in developed countries. He mentions in the interview that between 2000-2010 50 countries had over 5% GDP growth average. Between 2010-2020 only 10 countries.
The statistic I had in mind was average age. Just knowing the working population number is not all that useful in predicting GDP growth or the future. The process is more complex than only distilling it to 1 or 2 metrics or statistics.
 

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