Indian Economy: News and Discussion

R1TTER

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The post you quoted said startup hub - they definitely need to do that if they're actually looking to compete with the big boys namely US, China, EU, SK & Japan. They're the true leaders in high tech, with the US generally being way ahead of others overall, in part because of their history
there is a 10,000 crore fund for long term research in this budget, unable to find the news item for now.
"10k crores" is peanuts - TSMC itself will invest over $100 billion dollars by the middle of this decade, Intel a similar amount & China probably double that through their domestic proxies. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron combined will spend north of $300 billion dollars before this decade ends, with Samsung probably investing at least half of that on their own. You're not really comprehending the scale of things which I mentioned, startup hub is probably not an apt term for what I'm talking about but really IMO we better get in to high end chip manufacturing while we can! This is a trillion dollar plus once in a lifetime opportunity 🙄
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Today's leading edge fabs are going to to make "mass market" chips 3 decades from now!
 
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ezsasa

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The post you quoted said startup hub - they definitely need to do that if they're actually looking to compete with the big boys namely US, China, EU, SK & Japan. They're the true leaders in high tech, with the US generally being way ahead of others overall, in part because of their history
"10k crores" is peanuts - TSMC itself will invest over $100 billion dollars by the middle of this decade, Intel a similar amount & China probably double that through their domestic proxies. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron combined will spend north of $300 billion dollars before this decade ends, with Samsung probably investing at least half of that on their own. You're not really comprehending the scale of things which I mentioned, startup hub is probably not an apt term for what I'm talking about but really IMO we better get in to high end chip manufacturing while we can! This is a trillion dollar plus once in a lifetime opportunity 🙄
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Today's leading edge fabs are going to to make "mass market" chips 3 decades from now!
sure, but every journey starts with a single step. before 2019, semiconductor policy was limited to opeds, now atleast you have official govt policy with stated goals. we all recognise opportunity costs, but we also need to recognise competing interests.

Indian pharma did not become what it is today, on day 1.

semi conductor is not the only industry that is vying for Govt's attention.
 

ezsasa

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@R1TTER some of my thoughts in a different context, but premise is the same.

there is a sequence of progression spanning years/decades as to how an industry evolves, this sequence cannot be skipped, can compress timelines of a few in between segments by applying to efficient management but the sequence remains the same. early start has a huge role here too, because time is linear.

in our case, IT folks are basically following the same cycle as our onion farmers, albeit a longer time scale. due to seasonal supply demand dynamics when prices of onions go up, many farmers join the band wagon plant onions, when harvest season comes there is over supply in onions which leads to marginal returns. next year the cycle repeats. in IT context, past 30 years our IT sector kept chasing what ever tech is hot globally(not saying this is wrong), I remember cycles of C, C++, COBOL, mainframes, html, java, few techs in between and now phyton, AI, ML. Always chasing, over supply based on trend, produce dime a dozen programmers, reduce the salaries as a result. next hot tech, and the cycle repeats.

coming to core technologies including manufacturing, our corporates haven’t matured to a stage to take investment risks on futures, almost all of them want to make safe bets, understandable considering IBC has just started, and most new tech investments are coming from outside, foreign funders are deciding which applications are to be invested in. and foreign funders won’t invest in developing core tech because their investors won’t allow it. their investors know the value of I.P staying with their own countries. this stage domestic investors haven’t reached.

so we have to wait for domestic investors to find courage to invest in core technologies.

Solution : But in the meanwhile, the country needs futures market research independent of the big 4 (EY, Deloitte, Pwc, KPMG) which has Indian self interest in it’s charter. this would be a good start. can expand on this if anyone is interested.
 

R1TTER

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semi conductor is not the only industry that is vying for Govt's attention.
Yes but here's the thing these companies are expanding capacity for the next decade or two - you miss this bus now the stars will not align the same for maybe half a century or more? Especially with the trifecta of Covid, chip shortage & (crypto) mining boom - timing is everything in life. Besides semiconductor industry has among the highest paid jobs in the world, if not the highest.
@R1TTER some of my thoughts in a different context, but premise is the same.
With due respect this isn't your avg "IT sector" job, we'll actually need to "import" qualified PhD's from the states or EU if Intel ever sets up shop here. In due course of time we can fill these roles but I doubt we have enough talent right now.
 

ezsasa

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Yes but here's the thing these companies are expanding capacity for the next decade or two - you miss this bus now the stars will not align the same for maybe half a century or more? Especially with the trifecta of Covid, chip shortage & (crypto) mining boom - timing is everything in life. Besides semiconductor industry has among the highest paid jobs in the world, if not the highest.
With due respect this isn't your avg "IT sector" job, we'll actually need to "import" qualified PhD's from the states or EU if Intel ever sets up shop here. In due course of time we can fill these roles but I doubt we have enough talent right now.
it's ok to have different perspective, in my world view there is no right and wrong. things happens whether we like it or not. if we miss this bus like many other busses in the past, we can catch the next bus. in the previous decade, it was said India missed manufacturing bus, yet merchandise exports are increasing year on year.

meanwhile the country has to manage other priorities as well. when it comes to India, the amount of dichotomies one has to factor in to make a near accurate assessment is mind boggling. that's the fun part.
 

Physx32

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has RBI made any recent statement on currency stabilisation?

"Announcing the monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Indian economy has large forex reserves and that it stands ready and resolute to defend the economy."
 

Covfefe

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Kumata

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and high oil prices.
Oil is not bought on spot prices in open markets so this is a myth. Commie auntie is making mamu of whole India with her uttering of high oil prices et all. what's being shown in media are spot prices. OMC,s buy on year long contracts not from average trader in the gully.

I believe, RBI is diversifying into other currencies as well. I remember reading a article some where. Russia is a good example for same.

Coupled with high inflation & SL.. We lost some 11 billions .. same time, I am hearing NEPAL is also struggling with dollar and exports. Apparently, they have banned import of all luxury items already...

Govt need to be ready to feed one more snake in our neighbor...there is a reason why their PM was busy doing pooja in Kashi.
 

gajapati

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ezsasa

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Oil is not bought on spot prices in open markets so this is a myth. Commie auntie is making mamu of whole India with her uttering of high oil prices et all. what's being shown in media are spot prices. OMC,s buy on year long contracts not from average trader in the gully.

I believe, RBI is diversifying into other currencies as well. I remember reading a article some where. Russia is a good example for same.

Coupled with high inflation & SL.. We lost some 11 billions .. same time, I am hearing NEPAL is also struggling with dollar and exports. Apparently, they have banned import of all luxury items already...

Govt need to be ready to feed one more snake in our neighbor...there is a reason why their PM was busy doing pooja in Kashi.
irrespective of spot price or not, import bill has increased compared to last year, same will be the case in march and april.
Screenshot 2022-04-11 at 5.58.38 PM.png
 

Covfefe

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Oil is not bought on spot prices in open markets so this is a myth. Commie auntie is making mamu of whole India with her uttering of high oil prices et all. what's being shown in media are spot prices. OMC,s buy on year long contracts not from average trader in the gully.

I believe, RBI is diversifying into other currencies as well. I remember reading a article some where. Russia is a good example for same.

Coupled with high inflation & SL.. We lost some 11 billions .. same time, I am hearing NEPAL is also struggling with dollar and exports. Apparently, they have banned import of all luxury items already...

Govt need to be ready to feed one more snake in our neighbor...there is a reason why their PM was busy doing pooja in Kashi.
Hmm, but those Habibis in the middle East willfully enforce an option in those contracts which enables them to profiteer by cutting the supplies later. The buyer becomes obligated to lift the product but they are not obligated to supply. That's why Indian Companies have shifted more to spot contracting (from some 20% to around 33% during a decade)
For one, Indian firms buy two-third of their purchases on term or fixed annual contracts.

These term contracts provide assured supplies of the contracted quantity but the pricing and other terms favour only the supplier, he said.

“While buyers have an obligation to lift all of the contracted quantity, Saudi and other producers have the option to reduce supplies in case OPEC decides to keep production artificially lower to boost prices. Why should the consumer have to pay for decisions of OPEC? If we commit to offtake, they should also supply no matter what,” he said.

Why else you think Europe was so addicted to Russian energy at spot contracts
 

Lonewolf

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