Indian Economy: News and Discussion

Haldilal

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interesting blast from the past.


Bombay Dyeing-Reliance feud: RIL executive arrested on charge of conspiring to kill Wadia
The Bombay Dyeing-Reliance Industries feud took a startling twist with the arrest of senior Reliance executive Kirti Ambani on the charge of conspiring to kill Bombay Dyeing Chairman Nusli Wadia. A volatile mix of politics, crime and business, it is the political dimension of the case that is most intriguing.

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Raghu Nandan DharM. RAHMAN.Prabhu ChawlaAugust 31, 1989ISSUE DATE: August 31, 1989|UPDATED: October 30, 2013 17:56 IST






The protagonists are a study in contrast. On one side, Dhirubhai Ambani, a street-smart operator whose rags-to-riches story has rewritten corporate history and radically changed the rules of the market-place. And ranged against him, Nusli Wadia, a suave, sophisticated tycoon descended from centuries of empire builders.
The contrast does not end there. Ambani presides over the fastest-growing industrial group in the country with assets of Rs 3,875 crore. Wadia is chairman of Bombay Dyeing, a conservative institution with assets of just Rs 259 crore.

Despite that, their battle has become one of the fiercest and most personalised in Indian corporate history, involving not just business rivalry but also the most powerful personages in the country. But now, even by their extreme standards, what is unfolding is, possibly, the bloodiest chapter in the cutthroat war.

The arrest last fortnight of Kirti Ambani, a senior employee of Ambani's Reliance Industries for conspiring to murder Wadia, exploded like a well-timed bomb, shaking the judiciary, the bureaucracy, the corporate sector, and, above all, the political establishment.

By last week, as Kirti, 48, Reliance general manager (public relations), was finally released on bail after spending sleepless nights in a dingy Bombay police lock-up, the case had created ripples that reached the office of the prime minister, caused deep rifts in the ruling party, and almost jeopardised the career of Maharashtra Chief Minister Sharad Pawar. The reason for the widespread tremors: the tentacles of the Ambani empire reach into every corner of the Government's power structure, while Wadia has the unrelenting backing of the Ramnath Goenka-owned Indian Express newspaper chain. Wadia is also a good friend of Pawar.


Claims and Counterclaims
Ambani Camp
  • Why would the Ambanis want to eliminate Nusli Wadia? He is much too insignificant a business rival for them to take such an extreme and foolhardy risk.
  • They are among the fastest growing industrial houses in the country. They have no need to stoop to such criminal activities at this stage of their growth.
  • Nusli Wadia blames his business set-backs on the Ambanis. He is trying to retaliate by taking the support of the Indian Express group.
  • This is a frame-up essentially aimed at undermining the unprecedented Rs 920-crore public issue of Larsen and Toubro to be launched in a few weeks from now.
  • Why would they hire a small time criminal like Babaria? If they had to eliminate Nusli Wadia, they would have surely employed a professional killer who could do the job quickly and efficiently.
Wadia Camp
  • Dhirubhai's sons, Anil and Mukesh, hold Nusli Wadia responsible for the stroke which almost crippled their father in 1986 following the pressure put on him by V.P. Singh and the Indian Express.
  • Wadia would be a major source of information about the Ambani's business dealings if a new government headed by V.P. Singh is formed.
  • By silencing Wadia, the Ambanis will silence the Indian Express. They believe Wadia is keeping the Express afloat.
  • The conspiracy to kill Wadia was hatched months before Ambani applied for the L & T share issue.
  • Since all the top hit men of Bombay have recently been liquidated or arrested in the police crackdown, there was no choice.

It is these larger dimensions that have given the case a sensational twist, as has the modus operandi for the alleged plot - hiring contract killers from Bombay's underworld to eliminate Wadia. Though the Ambanis have been tight-lipped, apart from a press release on the day of the arrest terming the case "a frame-up", the Bombay police seemed to have a substantial case.

The two men involved in the investigation, Police Commissioner Vasant Keshaorao Saraf, 55, and Joint Commissioner (Crime) Arvind Siddeshwar Inamdar, 48, have impeccable reputations. But even they were startled last month when a senior Crime Branch inspector reported a meeting with an underworld contact in which he learnt of a 'supari' contract floated last November. 'Supari' contracts, in which gangsters are paid to carry out a killing, are nothing unusual in Bombay's underworld. But the target of this one was someone special: Nusli Neville Wadia.

The events that followed exposed the explosive implications of the case.

July 12: A day after Wadia landed in Bombay after a trip abroad, Saraf detailed a team to protect him.

July 17: Saraf sought a meeting with Pawar, met him along with Inamdar, and detailed the extraordinary dimensions of the case. Worried that the information would leak to the Ambanis, the two police officers insisted that only the chief minister who is in charge of the home portfolio, and Home Secretary S. Ramamoorthi be briefed. Minister of State for Home Vilas Sawant who is said to be close to the Ambanis was kept in the dark.

July 20: Ramamoorthi wrote to his counterpart at the Centre, detailing the case, emphasising its seriousness, requesting that Union Home Minister Buta Singh be informed, and suggesting that the CBI be asked to take over investigations.

July 23: Getting no response from New Delhi, Ramamoorthi sent another letter asking for instructions.

July 28: With the Centre still maintaining a deafening silence, Pawar gave the signal for the arrest of Kirti Ambani who was out of Bombay; the police decided to wait.

July 28: CBI boss Mohan Katre, known for his close links with the Ambanis, flew in to Bombay. Unusually, Katre went to the Bombay High Court where Wadia's visa case was being heard even though the CBI had nothing to do with it.

July 31: Kirti returned to Bombay from Patalganga. At 7.30 p.m., Crime Branch officers visited his office at Nariman Point and then accompanied him to his plush residence situated in Twin Towers complex, a lane away from Wadia's idyllic beach-side bungalow. While the house was being searched, another posse of officers picked up Arjun Waghji Babaria, 35, from his modest, powder-blue tin shack in the backyard of the Bhendi Bazaar Police Quarters. Babaria, a podgy, goateed drummer who called himself 'Prince Babaria' was known to be a 'fixer' who arranged contract crimes.

August 1: Kirti Ambani and Babaria remanded to police custody.

The arrest and subsequent details of the case left observers dumbstruck. Kirti is known to journalists as an amiable, soft-spoken .public relations man who often acted as a spokesman for Reliance. But since 1985, he had also been in touch with Babaria. In an album seized from Babaria's house, police found photographs of the two together. They also found newspaper photographs of Wadia and his black-topped Buick.



However, the likelihood of the Ambanis, despite their street-fighting image, stooping to murder, was received with incredulity. The immediate reaction was that the Ambani arrest was part of a larger political game involving Pawar and his fragile relations with the Centre. The fact that Pawar is a friend of Wadia and has no love lost for the Ambanis only added to the swirl of speculation.

But there was also the other side of the story: the fact that the Bombay police is known for its apolitical image and that the two officers, Saraf and Inamdar, were the least likely to be involved in any political shenanigans. Both have unimpeachable reputations for integrity and ability. Saraf, who became commissioner two years ago, worked in the CBI in the '60s, then in raw and the Intelligence Bureau. Inamdar, famed for refusing to bow under political pressure, has been transferred 22 times in his 25-year career. The state Government had even recommended his transfer to the Centre; Saraf had stalled it.

Babaria
Then, as bits of the evidence started leaking out, the murder case began to look more plausible. According to the police, Kirti allegedly sounded out Babaria last November for arranging the killing of a 'big businessman'. Babaria was a fixer with widespread contacts in Bombay's underworld. The contract, according to police sources, was worth Rs 50 lakh and Babaria was to be the go-between.

But finding the right contract killer was proving difficult. For, the last 18 months had seen a police crackdown which had left many contract killers dead or in jail. Babaria apparently decided to use small-time killers, hoping to keep a larger share of the 'supari' money. By the time he was arrested, he had acquired a Premier Padmini car, a colour TV set, jewellery and other valuables.

Kirti outside courtroom
Babaria introduced 'Shanu', a young gangster involved in two murders, to Kirti as 'Shakeel', one of Dawood's well known hit-men. Babaria and 'Shanu' met Kirti several times at two hotels, Horizon and Palm Grove. The plan allegedly was to block Wadia's limousine with another car as he emerged from his bungalow in Prabhadevi and gun him down. Alternatively, Wadia was to be killed as he left his office at Ballard Pier, which is quite deserted at his usual departure time of 8 p.m.
Police say that the murder plot was far advanced. Two revolvers had been acquired and others hired for the job. 'Verma', a garage man from Babaria's area, was paid Rs 50,000 to buy the guns and drive the getaway car, while a second, unnamed gunman was hired for Rs 10,000. But the actual execution was delayed because they were looking for a third gunman They were also unsure of escaping. And Wadia's frequent trips abroad did not help either".

CBI boss Katre: Ambani supporter
After several postponements, July 24 was fixed as D-day. But Crime Branch officers had, by then, stepped into the picture. The sleuths made Babaria telephone Kirti Ambani from, the police station and recorded three conversations between them and another between Kirti and 'Shanu'. On one of.the tapes, Kirti allegedly complains: "Why hasn't it been done yet? The bosses are after me."

Adding spice to the speculation is the fact that rivals of the Ambanis have in the past often run into unusual accidents. Pankaj Mehra, son of Orkay's Kapal Mehra, was in 1982 beaten up and left in a ditch in Patalganga Jamnadas Murjani, president of the All-India Crimpers Association, and a vocal critic of Reliance was attacked with a sword in 1986 in Bombay. And Bipin Kapadia of a rival firm, Hakoba Embroidery, was attacked with a knife, in 1974, outside Akbar Hotel in New Delhi.

The arrests made, Crime Branch officers started grilling Kirti and Babaria, confident of extracting the details of the alleged conspiracy. But then, expectedly, the Government woke up to the significance of the case. Since the request from the state Government for the CBI to take charge of the case was already in the files. New Delhi issued a notification within 24 hours,directing a take-over.


By handing the case over to the CBI, the Government has suggested it is protecting Ambani.

For Pawar, the Centre's action - and the Ambani case - was a godsend. The past fortnight had been like a nightmare: a revived plot dereservation scandal; a statewide strike by municipal employees; a strike by taxi and truck operators; and finally, the bombshell dropped into his lap by his police. The Ambani case could have worsened matters by antagonising Delhi, which though wary of Pawar had decided he was quite indispensable till the elections. But, In the event Pawar played his cards shrewdly. He kept the Centre fully posted of the developments, and even welcomed the CBI intrusion. This left him in an unassailable position: if the CBI exonerated Kirti, it was Centre's skullduggery, if it proved the existence of the plot then Pawar stood vindicated.
But at the same time, the sudden involvement of the CBI added other political twists to the case, CBI chief Katre is known to be extremely close to the Ambanis and his frequent extensions are largely attributed to the way in which his organisation has managed to hush up a number of investigations embarrassing to the ruling party and Rajiv Gandhi. To many, the CBI'S involvement signalled the Centre's way of reassuring the Ambanis.

Inamdar (left) and Saraf: solid case
The frenetic activity once New Delhi gave the go-ahead only served to confirm that view. As the Bombay police laboriously compiled the evidence and the case papers for handing over, CBI officers frantically tried to hasten the process, virtually camping at Ramamoorthi's office on August 5 in a desperate bid to get custody of Kirti before the weekend passed. With the Bombay police insisting on originals and not facsimiles of the orders from New Delhi, it was August 6, a Sunday afternoon, by the time the CBI officers got the investigation papers in their hands.
But they were faced with another dilemma. They had managed to get Metropolitan Magistrate J.W. Singh to agree telephonically for the transfer of Kirti and Babaria, who had been remanded to police custody till August 8, into their hands. But the Azad Maidan Police Station lock-up normally used by the CBI was considered unsuitable for the prize detainees.

A he reputation of the two Bombay police officials who handled the complex case gives it a certain legitimacy.

It was nightfall by the time alternate arrangements were made at the Colaba Police Station, and the CBI once again displayed its unseemly hurry by whisking away the two accused from the Crime Branch lock-up at 10.30 p.m. on Sunday. Even so, because of the absence of 'panchas' on Sunday, the CBI failed to take possession of some crucial evidence; - four audio cassettes of recordings of Kirti's telephonic conversations with Babaria and 'Shanu', the main hit-man.

By now, the Wadia camp too was working overtime. Ensconced in his penthouse on top of Express Towers in Bombay's Nariman Point, the ailing Ramnath Goenka, who Wadia refers to as his godfather, was marshalling his forces and finalising strategy.

As expected, the morning after the CBI stepped into the case, the irrepressible lawyer Ram Jethmalani filed a writ petition before Justice S.P. Kurdukar and justice Ashok Agarwal challenging the transfer of the case to the CBI. The petition was filed on behalf of Anil Gote, a journalist and leader of the Shetkari Sanghatana who has close links with the Indian Express. The judges granted a stay, restraining both the CBI and the Bombay police from acting further in the matter.


Even before the proceedings began, Justice Agarwal surprised everyone by declaring that he had fixed deposits in Bombay Dyeing and owned shares in Reliance. No objections were, however, raised by counsel, and a 90-minute battle began on whether the CBI or the Bombay police should seek an extension of the remand for Kirti and Babaria which expired that day. Criticising the frantic efforts by the CBI to take over the case, Jethmalani declared: "Dark deeds are always done at night and on holidays." Goenka's Financial Adviser Gurumurthy who has written exhaustive exposes on Reliance later said: "Only Ambani in this country has the choice of who should be the investigator. No sensible government could have gone to this length. So transparent is the Government's acquiescence that I am close to believing that someone is blackmailing the Government into such palpably incredible acts."

The Wadia-Ramnath Goenka axis, with the Indian Express as its spearhead, is widely viewed as anti-Rajiv.

In his petition, Gote contended that the CBI had no jurisdiction over the case, and its investigation could only be unjust and malafide since Katre was not only a Reliance shareholder but had revealed a clear bias in favour of the company in the past. The CBI, however, asked for an adjournment to file its own affidavit.

The next move in the legal chess game was by the Ambanis. Mukesh Ambani, Dhirubhai's eldest son, flew in to Delhi. Shortly after, on August 9, R.K. Amin, member of the BJP's national executive, and known Reliance lobbyist, quietly filed a writ petition in the Supreme Court demanding the transfer of the case to the CBI.

Within hours, a division bench of the Supreme Court allowed the petition and ordered that the case be transfered to the CBI. But the Ambani strategy floundered on mere happenstance. A junior advocate working for the Express group wandered into the courtroom just in time to hear the judgement. Jumping into her car, she drove to Parliament and informed Jethmalani who was attending the session as a member of the Rajya Sabha.

R.K. Dhawan
Jethmalani rushed to the Supreme Court and interrupted the court proceedings in the middle of a hearing. Declaring that "a fraud had been committed on the judiciary", he appealed to the judges to review the order. In a bizarre twist, the bench reversed their own order and ruled that neither the CBI nor the Bombay police would investigate the case till August 21.

But the real battle, inevitably, had already unfolded in the corridors of power. The reason why the Centre had been tardy in reacting to the Maharashtra Government's plea for the CBI to take over the case was because of the sharp divisions in government circles on the Ambani connection.
On August I, Pawar had received a call from R.K. Dhawan, the prime minister's political aide and the most prominent member of the pro-Ambani clique. Dhawan informed Pawar that the CBI would be taking over the case. On August 2, the Centre issued a notification for the CBI to take over the case. The same day, Pawar sent a letter by hand to the Union Minister of State for Personnel, P. Chidambaram, stating that "since the case has inter-state implications, it should be investigated by the CBI".

Chidambaram, whose ministry the CBI comes under, brought this to the notice of the Prime Minister's Office (PMO). According to Home Ministry sources, Katre had already prevailed upon Chidambaram to obtain formal transfer orders from the ministry.

Dhawan backing the Ambanis and Deshmukh opposing them, the political battle lines are drawn.

But key bureaucrats were against the CBI'S involvement. It is well known that senior bureaucrats in the PMO, most notably Principal Secretary to the prime minister, B.G. Deshmukh, are unhappy with the clout the Ambanis wield. The PMO had, in fact, taken the stand that since the case was purely a state problem, the Centre should avoid getting involved. Finally, however, it was Dhawan's view that prevailed.

The political tussle even led to the surprise inclusion of Kirti's arrest on Doordarshan news the same day. So all-pervasive and widely known is the Ambani clout that the news item seemed an aberration and sparked off considerable speculation that the ruling party was finally distancing itself from the Ambanis. At the same time, the arrests were widely viewed as Pawar's way of announcing his independence from the party's Central leadership and getting back at the Ambanis. Pawar and his supporters were convinced that the adverse publicity in the press over the scandal was because of well-placed leaks by the Ambanis. In fact, Satish Sharma had been brought in to mediate between Pawar and Ambani.
The real political fall-out of the entire controversy will depend on how the Centre instructs the CBI to handle the case. In political terms, it is undoubtedly a hot potato. Even more so in an election year when industrialists are called upon to finance campaigns. But that is also a Catch-22 situation. If the CBI, as widely expected, allows the case to drag on till after the elections, the Opposition is certain to exploit it during the elections.

B.C. Deshmukh
On the other hand, if the Government does decide to pursue the case, they will be making a powerful enemy in Ambani. It is widely known that the Ambanis have a foot in both camps and will still wield considerable clout even if an opposition government comes into power.

That perhaps explains the current division in the ranks of the ruling party and the attitude of powerful bureaucrats in the PMO. The Ambani's strategy is to project the case as a frame-up to not just undermine them but also the ruling party. As Dhirubhai Ambani told india today: "It is total frame-up. It is the handiwork of the same people who cooked up similar sham cases every time we went for major public issue in the past. Look at the people in the front and those behind them and you will know all the hows and whys of their underhand arrangement."

Ambani's reference is to the Express troika of Goenka, Gurumurthy and Arun Shourie. Clearly, the Ambanis will try and portray the case as part of a scenario to challenge the authority of the Centre.

That is perhaps inevitable. The Ambanis are now - at least in the public eye - synonymous with the Rajiv Government. The list of Ambani supporters reads like a Who's Who of the ruling party and includes Dhawan, Finance Minister S.B. Chavan, Finance Commission Chairman N.K.P. Salve, Minister of State in the PMO Shiela Dikshit, Bombay Congress(I) chief Murli Deora and Union External Affairs Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao.

There are, however, powerful enemies as well. Apart from key bureaucrats in the PMO, the anti-Ambani lobby consists of Home Minister Buta Singh, Railway Minister Madhavrao Scindia, P. Chidambaram, and a host of Congress(I) MPs. More important, their meteoric rise and their abrasive business ways have antagonised influential business families like the Goenkas, the Tatas, the Chhabrias and the Hindujas. They also have to contend with the aggressive media campaign spearheaded by the Indian Express.

Jethmalani (right) and Gote after the hearing: legal chessgame
Predictably then, the case is creating rifts in the ruling party. During last week's Parliament session, over 60 Congress(I) MPs signed a memorandum requesting Rajiv not to transfer the case to the CBI. Only a last minute, desperate intervention by Dhawan resulted in the resolution being withdrawn.

What is worrying many ruling party members is that the case has the potential of becoming an embarrassing election issue. The Rajiv government has given the clear impression that it favours the Ambani camp. This bias is proving counter-productive. The Kirti case no longer remains another underworld murder plot. It has become the symbol of a malaise that has seeped into the nation's politics and economy over the last three years. Literally, the entanglement of the country's institutions - the Government, press, politicians - in a web of patronage and corruption.
Ya'll Nibbiars Working for Tata, Birla, Dalmia, Jindal, JP, Ruia, Essar, Goenka, Singhia, Sappronji Pallonji, Wadia, Piramal, Sanghvi, Adani, Krilosker, Murugappa, Bajaj, Firodia, Hinduja, Walchund, Thappar, Amalgamations, Choskey commands respcet for the Firm's but not for Ambani.
 
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Indx TechStyle

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True but the government is quoting an inflation included growth rate of 6.5-7%, which is worrying.
No, government always only quotes real GDP growth that even only in terms of local currency. How do you think India came from $1.7 trillions to $3 trillions between 2014-21. No government estimate includes currency and inflation since they are measuring progress and not Market Exchange Rates.

They use an old price base to give out GDP figures and then give same at current prices. The difference between old and current price is a result of three factors the: real growth, currency value and inflation.
 

Lonewolf

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Ya'll Nibbiars Working for Tata, Birla, Dalmia, Jindal, JP, Ruia, Essar, Goenka, Singhia, Sappronji Pallonji, Wadia, Piramal, Sanghvi, Adani, Krilosker, Murugappa, Bajaj, Firodia, Hinduja, Walchund, Thappar, Amalgamations, Choskey commands respcet for the Firm's but not for Ambani.
Kirloskar are my favorite ,they are not so big a group yet quite good at what they produce
 

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No, government always only quotes real GDP growth that even only in terms of local currency. How do you think India came from $1.7 trillions to $3 trillions between 2014-21. No government estimate includes currency and inflation since they are measuring progress and not Market Exchange Rates.

They use an old price base to give out GDP figures and then give same at current prices. The difference between old and current price is a result of three factors the: real growth, currency value and inflation.
Ah I see…don’t know much about these things but I did find an article from deutsche bank on India may achieve $7 trillion by 2030. This is the only realistic report I have seen overall as it lays out the reason for why 10% average decadal growth may be possible. This also means by 2030, India would be an upper middle income country with gdp per capita of $5000 nominal.

so it would take another 10 years to double again to reach $14 trillion nominal and about $10k per capita gdp is today. So, it is going to take 20 years to get to where China is toda? Hmm I thought we were about a decade behind not 2 decades behind. We better accelerate our growth real fast.

 

Haldilal

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Kirloskar are my favorite ,they are not so big a group yet quite good at what they produce
Ya'll Nibbiars their Marine engines are the back bone of the Indian Navy. Their API Turbines are the only in India to compete Internationally. Even working for adani is good as their employees benefits are much higher than what other firms provided even better than the Tata's.
 

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Ah I see…don’t know much about these things but I did find an article from deutsche bank on India may achieve $7 trillion by 2030. This is the only realistic report I have seen overall as it lays out the reason for why 10% average decadal growth may be possible. This also means by 2030, India would be an upper middle income country with gdp per capita of $5000 nominal.

so it would take another 10 years to double again to reach $14 trillion nominal and about $10k per capita gdp is today. So, it is going to take 20 years to get to where China is toda? Hmm I thought we were about a decade behind not 2 decades behind. We better accelerate our growth real fast.

This is the most optimistic prediction i have seen most seem to think we will only be a 5 trillion economy by 2030 and i fail to see where the 10% growth will come we have never achieved that much growth and will only grow by 10% because we declined by 7% last year
 

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so it would take another 10 years to double again to reach $14 trillion nominal and about $10k per capita gdp is today. So, it is going to take 20 years to get to where China is toda? Hmm I thought we were about a decade behind not 2 decades behind. We better accelerate our growth real fast.
You can't forget that China is still a growing country unlike European and Islamic worlds. By the time we enter upper middle income group, PRC will be a high income economy with narrow gap with developed world.

India will take no less than 25 years to reach 70% of GDP per capita of China. That also provided China goes on suffering in its demographic disaster and at least slow down if not go into recession like Japan.

India may may come close to or even ahead of Latin American and eastern European income levels although likely. Their aging population and undiversified economies like BD and Pakistan have.
 

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You can't forget that China is still a growing country unlike European and Islamic worlds. By the time we enter upper middle income group, PRC will be a high income economy with narrow gap with developed world.

India will take no less than 25 years to reach 70% of GDP per capita of China. That also provided China goes on suffering in its demographic disaster and at least slow down if not go into recession like Japan.

India may may come close to or even ahead of Latin American and eastern European income levels although likely. Their aging population and undiversified economies like BD and Pakistan have.
What do u think how long we will continue to grow if we don't face demographic disaster and remain under good leadership.
 

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This is the most optimistic prediction i have seen most seem to think we will only be a 5 trillion economy by 2030 and i fail to see where the 10% growth will come we have never achieved that much growth and will only grow by 10% because we declined by 7% last year
That most prediction was based you quoting are considering japan not growing at all , india ln currency devaluating further more each year remove the depreciation and you have 10%growth
 

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What do u think how long we will continue to grow if we don't face demographic disaster and remain under good leadership.
Will always grow in that case but things don't remain forever.
India is just 30 years behind China in both economic development as well as demographic problem.

Positive part is that we have time to think over it. We can decide whether we will see through problem and find a solution for it or altogether do just a stupid stunt and put a population control bill in place.
 

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Will always grow in that case but things don't remain forever.
India is just 30 years behind China in both economic development as well as demographic problem.

Positive part is that we have time to think over it. We can decide whether we will see through problem and find a solution for it or altogether do just a stupid stunt and put a population control bill in place.
30 years is a lot considering our population will peak around 2050 after that we will face the same demographic problems as western countries most of our growth will come in these 30 years
 

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30 years is a lot considering our population will peak around 2050 after that we will face the same demographic problems as western countries most of our growth will come in these 30 years
So does for china but it will keep growing after that , lot of country are growing for niw as population is decreasing
 

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You can't forget that China is still a growing country unlike European and Islamic worlds. By the time we enter upper middle income group, PRC will be a high income economy with narrow gap with developed world.

India will take no less than 25 years to reach 70% of GDP per capita of China. That also provided China goes on suffering in its demographic disaster and at least slow down if not go into recession like Japan.

India may may come close to or even ahead of Latin American and eastern European income levels although likely. Their aging population and undiversified economies like BD and Pakistan have.
I don’t know about others but it is shocking to me that it will take 25 years to get to where China is TODAY. This is unacceptable. The government and private businesses must find new ways of accelerating growth and generating wealth. I think it is time to think of big numbers like 15% growth for 5 years at least and see what all needs to be done to get there. If all of the gold in all temples have to be monetized and significant government shareholding in most major PSUs have to be divested to get to the $1.5 trillion investment pipeline we have to do it. Clearly 10% growth is not sufficient and a much higher 15% needs to be looked at. And strict penalties must be imposed on large population states that do not grow by at least 15%.
 

FalconSlayers

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I don’t know about others but it is shocking to me that it will take 25 years to get to where China is TODAY. This is unacceptable. The government and private businesses must find new ways of accelerating growth and generating wealth. I think it is time to think of big numbers like 15% growth for 5 years at least and see what all needs to be done to get there. If all of the gold in all temples have to be monetized and significant government shareholding in most major PSUs have to be divested to get to the $1.5 trillion investment pipeline we have to do it. Clearly 10% growth is not sufficient and a much higher 15% needs to be looked at. And strict penalties must be imposed on large population states that do not grow by at least 15%.
Even china never grew at 15%, no one. Even we can’t.
 

sauntheninja

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I don’t know about others but it is shocking to me that it will take 25 years to get to where China is TODAY. This is unacceptable. The government and private businesses must find new ways of accelerating growth and generating wealth. I think it is time to think of big numbers like 15% growth for 5 years at least and see what all needs to be done to get there. If all of the gold in all temples have to be monetized and significant government shareholding in most major PSUs have to be divested to get to the $1.5 trillion investment pipeline we have to do it. Clearly 10% growth is not sufficient and a much higher 15% needs to be looked at. And strict penalties must be imposed on large population states that do not grow by at least 15%.
You cant grow at 15% unless you are very poor and somehow found oil thats why some african countries grew so fast uear on year
 

ezsasa

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I don’t know about others but it is shocking to me that it will take 25 years to get to where China is TODAY. This is unacceptable. The government and private businesses must find new ways of accelerating growth and generating wealth. I think it is time to think of big numbers like 15% growth for 5 years at least and see what all needs to be done to get there. If all of the gold in all temples have to be monetized and significant government shareholding in most major PSUs have to be divested to get to the $1.5 trillion investment pipeline we have to do it. Clearly 10% growth is not sufficient and a much higher 15% needs to be looked at. And strict penalties must be imposed on large population states that do not grow by at least 15%.
spend more time understanding what’s happening on the ground, you will get your answers.

If it is answers you want, start with making a habit of reading updates on PIB website everyday, for every update there will be a corresponding industry update a few months or years later. you will have to figure out your system to connect the dots. Enough information is being posted here at DFI to cover industry side of things, both good and bad.

No matter what others say, it’s better to do your own research. You will have to make up your own mind.
 

Indx TechStyle

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30 years is a lot considering our population will peak around 2050 after that we will face the same demographic problems as western countries most of our growth will come in these 30 years
Entire growth will.
What will happen to India 30 years later has already started in China and has been ongoing in Japan for 20 years.
I don’t know about others but it is shocking to me that it will take 25 years to get to where China is TODAY.
No, I said India needs to grow fast for 3 decades to achieve 70% GDP per capita of China AT THAT TIME and China to slow down continously like it's today. China's current economic position will be attained by India in early 2030s or probably even 2020s if ongoing infrastructure projects produce boosts early.
 

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