Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars India exporting more agriculture products than ever.

Chinese love for Indian red chilli hoists exports of the spice to a record

China’s import of red chilli from India has grown dramatically from under 10,000 tonnes until FY18 to nearly 75,000 tonnes in the following year and about 1.4 lakh tonnes in FY20 as Chinese people have taken a fancy to the Indian spice, which is much hotter than their locally grown low-heat...

www.moneycontrol.com

 

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars

As per preliminary official data, India’s merchandise exports in June was USD 32.46 billion, an increase of 47.34 pc over USD 22.03 billion in June 2020 and an increase of 29.7 pc over USD 25.03 billion in June 2019. The growth was notable since the second wave of the pandemic had posed downside risks due to logistical and manpower issues. Not only those risks have subsided now but the government has also come up with economic relief measures that would certainly boost economic growth. The the strong rebound in engineering goods export would support growth and employment.

And Among the concerns faced by the engineering goods exporters, especially MSMEs, and flagged the high ocean freight rates and elevated prices of primary steel weighing down the sector. The Hailing the stimulus package announced by the government and extension of interest subsidy scheme for exporters, the that engineering goods export would stay positive in the current fiscal. The stimulus package would lift sentiment and push domestic demand which has been subdued. The additional credit guarantee of Rs 1.5 lakh crore would help the MSME sector to bridge the cash deficit. The export insurance cover would give further impetus to the sector.

 

[ezsasa]

Ya'll Nibbiara we annually import 150 billion dollars of mostly unprocessed Crude oil if we reduce this will see a more positive trade.

and India exports 40 billion $ petroleum products + polyester yarn production for local textile consumption from crude oil (unable to find exactly what this is worth).

net impact is probably lesser than what we assume?

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Ya'll Nibbiars

View attachment 100703

Why did the merchandise exports fall between 2013 and 2016? That’s a pretty dramatic fall. If we had continued the growth path then, merchandise exports might be touching $600 billion now.

 

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars mostly Driven by the FMCG.

ITC Group's earning from foreign exchange in FY'21 up 29% - ET Retail

In FY'20, the direct foreign exchange earned by ITC was Rs 3,506 crore and the total earning including its subsidiaries was Rs 4,597 crore. While ITC's expenditure in foreign currency amounted to Rs 1,664 crore for the year ended March 31, 2021. This comprises the purchase of raw materials...

retail.economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars this year India's agri-exports aggregating approximately USD 42 billion.

 

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars

India's exports grew slower than global imports in last five years

The FIEO study, based on UN Comtrade data for 2016-20 indicates that while global imports grew at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3 per cent during the period, Indian exports grew only 2 per cent

www.businesstoday.in

 

[FalconSlayers]

Ya'll Nibbiars

India's exports grew slower than global imports in last five years

The FIEO study, based on UN Comtrade data for 2016-20 indicates that while global imports grew at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3 per cent during the period, Indian exports grew only 2 per cent

www.businesstoday.in

Africa is the new Asia, we should target them as our market.

 

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars EU again along the Basmati card.

 

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars

India's June YoY engineering goods exports rises by 52.4% - ET Auto

India's year-on-year engineering goods exports rose by 52.4 per cent during June 2021.

auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[FalconSlayers]

All this even after Wuhan Virus

 

[hit&run]

Building skyscrapers without demand will only increase debt and a huge one at that.

I am still on the fence as far that demand and supply maxim goes. The other maxim let the market forces decide appears fallacious too. Following the examples of high end electronic gadgets there is a model of thrusting upon supply first to create demand. This is how the wealth is being created. With better controls the wealth can be then channelised to assist more growth in other areas. Even with current endogenous economic growth model driven by investment in Human resources, innovation and knowledge there is a need of indebtedness as initial investment.

This indebtedness driven economic model has shown that relation between growth and public debt is nonlinear. Therefore the debt has to be kept below debt overhang level. This where I am on the fence to make any clear agreement or disagreement with your assertion.

 

[ezsasa]

I am still on the fence as far that demand and supply maxim goes. The other maxim let the market forces decide appears fallacious too. Following the examples of high end electronic gadgets there is model of thrusting by upon supply first to create demand. This is how the wealth is being created. With better controls the wealth can be then channelised to assist more growth in other areas. Even with current endogenous economic growth model driven by investment in Human resources, innovation and knowledge there is a need of indebtedness as initial investment.

This indebtedness driven economic model has shown that relation between growth and public debt is nonlinear. Therefore the debt has to be kept below debt overhang level. This where I am on the fence to make any clear agreement or disagreement with your assertion.

debt based economics can come into play where there is a assured $ or € (not any other currency) circulation, countries plugged into this system have ensured the money keeps circulating within themselves delaying the impact of debt.

in our case, India is new at this game. We have just started to realise how to manage NPA. And more importantly we yet to be inducted into $ or € based currency regimes by way of FTAs.

@Crazywithmath has written a post on FTA yesterday, that post will have to be read in conjunction with my post above.

 

[SKC]

Ya'll Nibbiars Many skyscraper after all it's a 5 acres plot.

I hope it does not get stuck like Bhendi Bazar redevelopment project where only 1 tower got constructed and rest of the bazar is still like it was earlier.

 

[Haldilal]

I hope it does not get stuck like Bhendi Bazar redevelopment project where only 1 tower got constructed and rest of the bazar is still like it was earlier.

Ya'll Nibbiars Arun Gawli is powerfull and has resources.

 

[SKC]

Ya'll Nibbiara Omkar 1973 3 building's 300 plus meters.


View attachment 100700

Will it really cross 300 mtr?

 

[Haldilal]

Will it really cross 300 mtr?

Ya'll Nibbiars current at 298 meters up from 268 meters.

 

[hit&run]

debt based economics can come into play where there is a assured $ or € (not any other currency) circulation, countries plugged into this system have ensured the money keeps circulating within themselves delaying the impact of debt.

in our case, India is new at this game. We have just started to realise how to manage NPA. And more importantly we yet to be inducted into $ or € based currency regimes by way of FTAs.

@Crazywithmath has written a post on FTA yesterday, that post will have to be read in conjunction with my post above.

Agree, India is trying to detox its financial systems. But at the same time we can afford to kill its animal spirt which comes from risk taking and high indebtedness backed growth. We need to build more skyscrapers, bullet trains and high end manufacturing zones even when domestic and global demand is low. Retrospective taxes, taxes on capital gains, high interests rates, lack of privatisation, high public spending on Infrastructure all are symptoms of deeply founded insecurities which are forcing us to play safe. The best time to build capabilities is when demand is low.

 

[ezsasa]

Agree, India is trying to detox its financial systems. But at the same time we can afford to kill its animal spirt which comes from risk taking and high indebtedness backed growth. We need to build more skyscrapers, bullet trains and high end manufacturing zones even when domestic and global demand is low. Retrospective taxes, taxes on capital gains, high interests rates, lack of privatisation, high public spending on Infrastructure all are symptoms of deeply founded insecurities which are forcing us to play safe. The best time to build capabilities is when demand is low.

yes, and I am assuming you want to say “at the same time we can’t kill the animal spirits”.

True, so what I think is happening is that modi government has decided that if US and EU are not allowing us to plug into their system, instead of waiting and doing nothing in the meantime make sure efficiency in currency circulation improves within the country. this is where Delhi mumbai express way, dedicated freight corridor, sagar mala project, air travel infra etc are being built at rapid pace. while freeing up the existing debt of current major real estate players by RERA and other schemes.

Ultimately the people who are going to occupy those sky scrapers are the top 1% ers of the future, the more they do business and earn profits because of efficiency in logistics and port infrastructure more the demand for prime real estate.

It’s a slightly longer path compared to UPA method of straight up distribution of cash(loans) to their friends, atleast this way has a better risk mitigation strategy.

Currently atleast two lakh crore infrastructure projects(govt spending) are happening in the country + whatever private players are spending.

Delhi mumbai express way - 50000 crores

dedicated freight corridor - 80,000 crores

This alone is 1.3 lakh crore.

 

[hit&run]

yes, and I am assuming you want to say “at the same time we can’t kill the animal spirits”.

True, so what I think is happening is that modi government has decided that if US and EU are not allowing us to plug into their system, instead of waiting and doing nothing in the meantime make sure efficiency in currency circulation improves within the country. this is where Delhi mumbai express way, dedicated freight corridor, sagar mala project, air travel infra etc are being built at rapid pace. while freeing up the existing debt of current major real estate players by RERA and other schemes.

Ultimately the people who are going to occupy those sky scrapers are the top 1% ers of the future, the more they do business and earn profits because of efficiency in logistics and port infrastructure more the demand for prime real estate.

It’s a slightly longer path compared to UPA method of straight up distribution of cash(loans) to their friends, atleast this way has a better risk mitigation strategy.

We can not insulate our economy from external effects. The risks and blackmails must be negotiated. Just an example of pharma industry which runs on patents controlled by western countries we have to suck up to their patronisation and it comes in many colours and shapes.

Internalising economy has very limited revenue scope. And we are already far behind in every markers; major being infrastructure which can not be run on demand and supply paradigm decided by politicians. As far as only small amount of people living in skyscrapers is a concern then we need to build them first. The money saved as deposits and in gold will start pouring out once there is good supply driven demand.