Someone posted this rebuttal in reddit after our exports reached an all time high anyone can make sense of this data on whether its true or not?
India's exports for the year at the end of different years
| Date | India's Exports (Billions USD) |
|---|
| 31-12-2003 | 90.84 |
| 31-12-2008 | 288.9 |
| 31-12-2013 | 472.18 |
| 31-12-2019 | 528.3 |
Using this, we calculate growth in exports during UPA1, UPA2, Combined 2 terms of UPA & also during Narendrabhai's years.
The different time periods/Terms
Since only yearly data is available & it wouldn't exactly match with the start or end of the political term, I approximate the following dates as the different terms.
| Dates | Terms |
|---|
| 31-12-2003 to 31-12-2008 | UPA1 |
| 31-12-2008 to 31-12-2013 | UPA2 |
| 31-12-2003 to 31-12-2013 | Combined UP1 & UPA2 |
| 31-12-2013 to 31-12-2019 | Narendrabhai |
Cumulative Growth in the different Terms
First let's do total cumulative growth of India's exports during different terms - This is pretty simple - if in 2010 it was Rs. 100 & it grew to Rs. 150 by 2015, then the growth is 50% cumulative over 5 years.
| Cumulative Growth |
|---|
| UPA1 | 218.04% |
| UPA2 | 63.44% |
| Combined UPA | 419.8% |
| Narendrabhai | 11.88% |
CAGR of Exports in Different terms
Cumulative growth may not always be the best way to compare two different periods if they are not the same duration (for e.g. 5 years of UPA2 with 6 years of Modi). Here it's not relevant of course because both UPA1 & UPA2 kicked Narendrabhai inspite of being 1 year lesser.
However, let's still calculate CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate - i.e. how much is the average year on year Growth. This will make the comparison easier because the number of years in the terms is now normalized by calculating the average yearly growth
Taking the same example as before - Let's say our exports were Rs. 100 in 2010 & Rs. 150 in 2015, then average annual growth is 8.45% (calculated using the Compounding formula)
| Average Yearly Growth Rate |
|---|
| UPA1 | 26.04% |
| UPA2 | 10.32% |
| Combined UPA | 17.92% |
| Narendrabhai | 1.89% |
- Exports grew at an average of 17.92% each year during UPA.
- Exports grew at an average of 1.89% each year during Narendrabhai.
That's the post - try not to laugh too much (or cry too much).
All data taken from
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/exports
Updated by copy/pasting from comments
Comparison with the world
World Export Growth crashed during both UPA2 & Modiji's term. But as a developing country/emerging economy, we were never competing with the world export figures. As an emerging economy we were expected to do much better than the world exports (developed nations & also very backward nations don't have much growth so they always pull the world figures down).
For e.g. in UPA2 also world exports growth rate had gone down from earlier highs. But even during UPA2, India's CAGR growth rate was nearly 3x times of World Exports CAGR. Now, under Modiji our CAGR is not even 2x of World Exports CAGR.
Several countries with Good Governance are performing far better than both India & the World.
| Country | CAGR | Cumulative |
|---|
| Modiji | 1.89% | 11.88% |
| Burma[1] | 14.36% | 95.6% |
| Ireland | 12.18% | 99.31% |
| Vietnam | 11.81% | 95.35% |
| Cambodia | 8.6% | 74.2% |
| Bangladesh[2] | 7.95% | 58.21% |
| Phillipines | 6.23% | 30.40% |
| Sri Lanka | 4.29% | 28.64% |
[1] Only 5 years data is available as compared 6 for other countries
