Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[Lonewolf]

But I don't understand if there are govt vacancies then why aren't they filled after conducting selections, so I think modi is going to lose votes of young people who are looking for jobs. These are personal views pls comment if wrong

Actually most vacancies are in state controlled sector ,in. Central most of them are filled or government is planning to reform that institution like upsc , they want to keep it but also want lateral entry , we have vacancies but require infra for their functioning .

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Because India is not the same development stage as either US, or China.
US is the one of her own league - monopolization of the technologies and services, the top of the value chain. USD appreciation has very little affect on them.
China is in the stage of moving from low-end to the middle of the value chain, they have created a massive scale of manufacturing base to absorb the fluctuation of yen. Quality is more important than price.
India, however, is still at the low end of the industries. The Customers the low-end products are very sensitive to the price.

India can push up her rupee, but not now, neither near future. She can only do that once she stabilize her position and reputation in the supply chain, which will take years if not decades.



Check your figures before making your claim.
Let's see what really happened to the trading balance:
2002: -5.05 B
2003: -4.23 B
2004: -12.66 B
2005: -22.90 B
India Trade Balance 1960-2021 | MacroTrends

So, except 2002-2003, India's trading balance was getting worse. That is understandable, the foreign exchange rate movement generally doesn't affect economy immediately.

If we look a bit further, the appreciating trend of Rupee continued until Jan-08, during which Rupee hit 39.27 vs USD. In the meantime, India's trading balance went down to -62.02 B. The damage was so bad, even though India rupee turned to depreciate since then, the impact still continued until 2011 - the worst trading balance: -122.91 B.




Again, check the fact before making your claim.

View attachment 79644

If you want to be Mr Modi's spokesman, you need to do much better.

Because India is not the same development stage as either US, or China.
US is the one of her own league - monopolization of the technologies and services, the top of the value chain. USD appreciation has very little affect on them.
China is in the stage of moving from low-end to the middle of the value chain, they have created a massive scale of manufacturing base to absorb the fluctuation of yen. Quality is more important than price.
India, however, is still at the low end of the industries. The Customers the low-end products are very sensitive to the price.

India can push up her rupee, but not now, neither near future. She can only do that once she stabilize her position and reputation in the supply chain, which will take years if not decades.



Check your figures before making your claim.
Let's see what really happened to the trading balance:
2002: -5.05 B
2003: -4.23 B
2004: -12.66 B
2005: -22.90 B
India Trade Balance 1960-2021 | MacroTrends

So, except 2002-2003, India's trading balance was getting worse. That is understandable, the foreign exchange rate movement generally doesn't affect economy immediately.

If we look a bit further, the appreciating trend of Rupee continued until Jan-08, during which Rupee hit 39.27 vs USD. In the meantime, India's trading balance went down to -62.02 B. The damage was so bad, even though India rupee turned to depreciate since then, the impact still continued until 2011 - the worst trading balance: -122.91 B.




Again, check the fact before making your claim.

View attachment 79644

If you want to be Mr Modi's spokesman, you need to do much better.

And Do you know that when China's Upsurge in Economy started, It was a 2 Bn USD economy and way bellow the technology level of what India is today. We have a huge skilled manpower and in Next Decade, the only country in the world to have surplus skilled manpower is India. We have improved a lot in ease of doing business and infrastructure. We have surpass China in FDI after many years. We are all set to compete with china in manufacturing and among top countries in Science and technology and innovation. So your arguments are plane bluff. Now coming to the data you quoted. I am quoting from the same source.

2005	$-22.90B	-2.79%
2004	$-12.66B	-1.79%
2003	$-4.23B	-0.70%
2002	$-5.05B	-0.98%
2001	$-4.25B	-0.88%
2000	$-4.25B	-0.91%
1999	$-8.77B	-1.91%
1998	$-7.01B	-1.66%
1997	$-5.15B	-1.24%

Look How currency appreciated against USD in the time when we had Low Trade deficit and once again depreciated when Trade deficit rose.

Here are INR DATA against USD in 3rd column. Look at the correlation of INR Appreciating with Decreasing in Trade deficit.

1999–00	58.9335	58.7505	43.3327	43.6050	69.8510	69.5100	44.7909	41.7975	39.0606	41.4825
2000–01	59.5459	58.7969	45.6844	46.6400	67.5522	66.5788	41.4832	41.0113	41.4052	37.4338
2001–02	60.2150	60.8446	47.6919	48.8000	68.3189	69.5863	42.1811	42.6438	38.1790	36.8063
2002–03	64.1257	65.2550	48.3953	47.5050	74.8193	74.9225	48.0901	51.4925	39.7363	39.8925
2003–04	65.6876	64.2393	45.9516	43.4450	77.7389	79.6813	53.9896	53.1725	40.7077	41.6725
2004–05	66.9282	66.0987	44.9315	43.7550	82.8644	82.1125	56.5523	56.5863	41.8046	40.8075
2005–06	64.4898	64.2566	44.2735	44.6050	79.0472	77.7963	53.9124	54.1875	39.1438	38.0188

Now coming to your second point.

I talked about trade deficit and you posted the graph of export. I know you have comprehension problem but when you enter into an argument, try to read what the other part says. Only saying others spokes man of Modi and Bhakta makes you a great economist, of course you are a great economist but otherwise you are such a troll who can not read a post carefully and replied to what is been asked.

Q1 Trade balance of India (11.7 BN Surplus)

India Hits Trade Surplus of $11.7B in Q1 2020-21 - IndiaTIES

As per the reports released by the Ministry of Finance, India records overall trade surplus of US$11.7Billion for Q1 2020-21 i..e April-Jun 2020

www.indiaties.in

Q2 Trade balance of India (19.8 B USD Surplus)

India posts current account surplus of $19.8 bn as trade deficit narrows

Surplus in April-June 2020 (Q1Fy21) comes on top of a surplus of $0.6 billion (0.1 per cent of GDP) in the preceding quarter (Q4 Fy20), says RBI.

www.business-standard.com

So, read carefully and post the source which at least do not counter your own argument.

 

[Lonewolf]

And Do you know that when China's Upsurge in Economy started, It was a 2 Bn USD economy and way bellow the technology level of what India is today. We have a huge skilled manpower and in Next Decade, the only country in the world to have surplus skilled manpower is India. We have improved a lot in ease of doing business and infrastructure. We have surpass China in FDI after many years. We are all set to compete with china in manufacturing and among top countries in Science and technology and innovation. So your arguments are plane bluff. Now coming to the data you quoted. I am quoting from the same source.

2005	$-22.90B	-2.79%
2004	$-12.66B	-1.79%
2003	$-4.23B	-0.70%
2002	$-5.05B	-0.98%
2001	$-4.25B	-0.88%
2000	$-4.25B	-0.91%
1999	$-8.77B	-1.91%
1998	$-7.01B	-1.66%
1997	$-5.15B	-1.24%

Look How currency appreciated against USD in the time when we had Low Trade deficit and once again depreciated when Trade deficit rose.

Here are INR DATA against USD in 3rd column. Look at the correlation of INR Appreciating with Decreasing in Trade deficit.

1999–00	58.9335	58.7505	43.3327	43.6050	69.8510	69.5100	44.7909	41.7975	39.0606	41.4825
2000–01	59.5459	58.7969	45.6844	46.6400	67.5522	66.5788	41.4832	41.0113	41.4052	37.4338
2001–02	60.2150	60.8446	47.6919	48.8000	68.3189	69.5863	42.1811	42.6438	38.1790	36.8063
2002–03	64.1257	65.2550	48.3953	47.5050	74.8193	74.9225	48.0901	51.4925	39.7363	39.8925
2003–04	65.6876	64.2393	45.9516	43.4450	77.7389	79.6813	53.9896	53.1725	40.7077	41.6725
2004–05	66.9282	66.0987	44.9315	43.7550	82.8644	82.1125	56.5523	56.5863	41.8046	40.8075
2005–06	64.4898	64.2566	44.2735	44.6050	79.0472	77.7963	53.9124	54.1875	39.1438	38.0188

Now coming to your second point.

I talked about trade deficit and you posted the graph of export. I know you have comprehension problem but when you enter into an argument, try to read what the other part says. Only saying others spokes man of Modi and Bhakta makes you a great economist, of course you are a great economist but otherwise you are such a troll who can not read a post carefully and replied to what is been asked.

Q1 Trade balance of India (11.7 BN Surplus)

India Hits Trade Surplus of $11.7B in Q1 2020-21 - IndiaTIES

As per the reports released by the Ministry of Finance, India records overall trade surplus of US$11.7Billion for Q1 2020-21 i..e April-Jun 2020

www.indiaties.in

Q2 Trade balance of India (19.8 B USD Surplus)

India posts current account surplus of $19.8 bn as trade deficit narrows

Surplus in April-June 2020 (Q1Fy21) comes on top of a surplus of $0.6 billion (0.1 per cent of GDP) in the preceding quarter (Q4 Fy20), says RBI.

www.business-standard.com

So, read carefully and post the source which at least do not counter your own argument.

A problem which we will face is brain drain , if we can bring back our top brain , our technological enhancement will be boosted .

 

[HariPrasad-1]

A problem which we will face is brain drain , if we can bring back our top brain , our technological enhancement will be boosted .

Many of them are coming back. Scenario is not the same as it was few decades back. Lots of IT guys, Doctors and other professionals comes back.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

The best example to prove this is China. After Deng Xiaoping, who can be equated to Narasimha Rao, they had their own Vajpayee in the name of Jiang Zeming. Shenzhen became a massive tech hub under Jiang. India would have followed the same path as China if not for MMS. If Vajpayee had been elected for a second term, India would have been closer to China. MMS isn't the great economist everyone makes him to be. The 1991 reforms were a low-hanging fruit, which was kind of obvious to anyone. I judge MMS based on the performance of the economy in the 2004-2014 period, where they focused on the Service sector as a short-term fix to provide jobs. Vajpayee had a plan, AFAIK, to make India the factory of the world, much before China had even become one. The infra investments under him, along with his push for manufacturing in India(I can't find this right now, but he had made a speech, asking for more Indian manufacturing and less imports, pretty good speech, but can't find it rn).

UPA 1 and II was an economic deserter which allowed free import. In that era, lots of capital goods was imported which you used to manufacture in India with Better quality. Our capital goods import which was 10 Bn USD rose 7 times in 10 years. That hit our economy very badly. The rise of China came from their desire to manufacture and use what is made in China. Their Government had a very sever restrictions on Import from any other country while we allowed all these at a very liberal terms and conditions. UPA II's policy F***ed up many desi industries. The fall of Steel sector of India and many Indian company went bankrupt are classical example of idiotic economic policy of UPA which allowed China to dump big quantity of steel in India. This resulted into Loans to Steel companies became NPA.

 

[ladder]

Indian Government to build transhipment port at Kanyakumari

V O Chidambaranar Port Trust has sought expression of interest from shipping lines and port developers to build the 6.5 million twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) capacity transhipment port, reported The Hindu Business Line.

Indian Government to build transhipment port at Kanyakumari

The Indian Government is making its first attempt to build a greenfield port and container transhipment hub near Kanyakumari.

www.ship-technology.com

 

[Lonewolf]

Indian Government to build transhipment port at Kanyakumari

Indian Government to build transhipment port at Kanyakumari

The Indian Government is making its first attempt to build a greenfield port and container transhipment hub near Kanyakumari.

www.ship-technology.com

There is already a port under development in kerala by adani

 

[sorcerer]

Record Foodgrain production of 303.34 million tonnes



The second advance estimates of production of principal crops for year 2020-21 have been released. The second advance estimates of production of major crops reveal a record production of 303.34 million tonnes of food grains, which clearly outlines the tireless hard work of farmers, research by agricultural scientists, and farmer-friendly policies of the Central Government. All-round agricultural reforms will also benefit the country in the long run.


In 2nd Advance Estimates of production of principal crops released by Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, the assessment of production of different crops is based on the data received from States and validated with information available from other sources. The comparative estimate of production of principal crops since 2005-06 is enclosed. As per 2nd Advance Estimates, the estimated production of major crops during 2020-21 is as under:

• Foodgrains– 303.34 million tonnes. (record)
  • Rice – 120.32 million tonnes. (record)
  • Wheat – 109.24 million tonnes. (record)
  • Nutri / Coarse Cereals – 49.36 million tonnes.
  • Maize – 30.16 million tonnes. (record)
  • Pulses – 24.42 million tonnes.
  • Tur – 3.88 million tonnes.
  • Gram – 11.62 million tonnes. (record)

• Oilseeds – 37.31 million tonnes.
  • • • Groundnut – 10.15 million tonnes (record)
      • Soyabean – 13.71 million tonnes
      • Rapeseed and Mustard – 10.43 million tonnes (record)

• Sugarcane – 397.66 million tonnes
• Cotton – 36.54 million bales (of 170 kg each)
• Jute & Mesta – 9.78 million bales (of 180 kg each)

The cumulative rainfall during this year’s southwest monsoon season upto 30th September, 2020 has been 9% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Accordingly, most of the major crops producingstates have witnessed normal rainfall. The production of most of the crops for the agricultural year 2020-21 has been estimated higher than their normal production. However, these estimates would undergo revision based on further feedback from the States.


As per Second Advance Estimates for 2020-21, total Foodgrain production in the country is estimated at record 303.34 million tonnes which is higher by 5.84 million tonnes than the production of foodgrain of 297.50 million tonnes achieved during 2019-20. Further, the production during 2020-21 is higher by 24.47 million tonnes than the previous five years’ (2015-16 to 2019-20) average production of foodgrain.


Total production of Rice during 2020-21 is estimated at record 120.32 million tonnes. It is higher by 7.88 million tonnes than the last five years’ average production of 112.44 million tonnes.


Production of Wheat during 2020-21 is estimated at record 109.24 million tonnes. It is higher by 8.81 million tonnes than the average wheat production of 100.42 million tonnes.


Production of Nutri / Coarse Cereals estimated at 49.36 million tonnes, which is higher by 1.62 million tonnes than the production of 47.75 million tonnes achieved during 2019-20. Further, it is also higher by 5.35 million tonnes than the average production.


Total Pulses production during 2020-21 is estimated at 24.42 million tonnes which is higher by 2.43 million tonnes than the last five years’ average production of 21.99 million tonnes.


Total Oilseeds production in the country during 2020-21 is estimated at record 37.31 million tonnes which is higher by 4.09 million tonnes than the production of 33.22 million tonnes during 2019-20. Further, the production of oilseeds during 2020-21 is higher by 6.77 million tonnes than the average oilseeds production.


Total production of Sugarcane in the country during 2020-21 is estimated at 397.66 million tonnes. The production of sugarcane during 2020-21 is higher by 35.59 million tonnes than the average sugarcane production of 362.07 million tonnes.


Production of Cotton is estimated at 36.54 million bales (of 170 kg each) is higher by 4.65 million bales than the average cotton production. Production of Jute & Mesta is estimated at 9.78 million bales (of 180 kg each).





Click here to see the tables for more details 1


Click here to see the tables for more details 2

 

[Sardarp]

Brothers please help me out with gold prices, when will it go up?

 

[Coalmine]

But I don't understand if there are govt vacancies then why aren't they filled after conducting selections, so I think modi is going to lose votes of young people who are looking for jobs. These are personal views pls comment if wrong

This is true. One recruitment takes 4 years for SSC. Dont even think about state psc jobs. Situation is bad. Govt not showing enthusiasm to talk like they did for farmers.
Railway ntpc gave notification before 2019 general election. Still tier 1 not completed

 

[Popeye]

What is Unnecessary Travel ??

 

[FalconSlayers]

 

[DerBronzeLord]

Turkey going down...

Nest should be porkis. We should ask our overseas businessmen to invest in India like Yusuf Ali an Indian Businessman owner of Lulu group is investing in India a lot...

Geopolitical reasons. A few months back, all Turkish goods were banned, and people were asked to boycott them for patriotic reasons. Now that Qatar and Saudia have also come together, Iran has become more shrill against Turkey(Read up about Iranian thoughts on the North-South Transport Corridor), and no one, Russia, US or China supports them, Turkey is alone. A massive self-goal by Erdogan, as he has collapsed the Turkish economy by handing over the FinMin to his son-in-law, antagonised allies for no reason whatsoever, and has pursued short-term geopolitical projects, instead of long-term alliances(Azerbaijan). Pakis have found an equally moronic birader in the Mediterranean. However, India should utilise this opportunity and expand our influence in the Middle East with Greece, Cyprus and Armenia. Increasing mil-mil ties, economic cooperation, etc. etc.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Geopolitical reasons. A few months back, all Turkish goods were banned, and people were asked to boycott them for patriotic reasons. Now that Qatar and Saudia have also come together, Iran has become more shrill against Turkey(Read up about Iranian thoughts on the North-South Transport Corridor), and no one, Russia, US or China supports them, Turkey is alone. A massive self-goal by Erdogan, as he has collapsed the Turkish economy by handing over the FinMin to his son-in-law, antagonised allies for no reason whatsoever, and has pursued short-term geopolitical projects, instead of long-term alliances(Azerbaijan). Pakis have found an equally moronic birader in the Mediterranean. However, India should utilise this opportunity and expand our influence in the Middle East with Greece, Cyprus and Armenia. Increasing mil-mil ties, economic cooperation, etc. etc.

Yes, we can have trade deals with Armenia, Greece and Cyprus as it is the first step of getting closer, we should increase our influence over regions, we have significant influence in South and North America, A lot in Africa, tonnes in Asia, Europe and Middle East but we lack in Mediterranean. Let Pakistanis be deluded that just becuse 45 Navies took part in their naval exercise, it means they are not isolated and its sort of a victory, they forget that every country does work according to their interests, Pakistan is at the fountain of wealth from which money and trade flows (strait of hormuz and its extensions). Lets see how many of these 45 Support porkis at FATF or UN, but let them stay deluded, no one is interested there, and I feel we should lobby to black label them and urge nations to suspend trade with porkis as they only export clothes and agriculture produce, nothing significant, and urge countries to throw out porkis from their countries as a terror threat so that they can not receive remittances from abroad to keep their economy afloat.

 

[FalconSlayers]

 

[IndianHawk]

Brothers please help me out with gold prices, when will it go up?

When a crisis happens .

 

[IndianHawk]

View attachment 79753​

That means nominal GDP growth will be about 16-17 %

 

[FalconSlayers]

That means nominal GDP growth will be about 16-17 %

If that is so, we might become a 3.3 Trillion economy this year

 

[FalconSlayers]

 

[DerBronzeLord]

Yes, we can have trade deals with Armenia, Greece and Cyprus as it is the first step of getting closer, we should increase our influence over regions, we have significant influence in South and North America, A lot in Africa, tonnes in Asia, Europe and Middle East but we lack in Mediterranean. Let Pakistanis be deluded that just becuse 45 Navies took part in their naval exercise, it means they are not isolated and its sort of a victory, they forget that every country does work according to their interests, Pakistan is at the fountain of wealth from which money and trade flows (strait of hormuz and its extensions). Lets see how many of these 45 Support porkis at FATF or UN, but let them stay deluded, no one is interested there, and I feel we should lobby to black label them and urge nations to suspend trade with porkis as they only export clothes and agriculture produce, nothing significant, and urge countries to throw out porkis from their countries as a terror threat so that they can not receive remittances from abroad to keep their economy afloat.

Yeahhhhh... we don't have influence in South or North America(Canada anyone?), Africa was a golden opportunity which we just blew due to our internal struggles in the 80's. We had a lot of influence after Apartheid ended, and we had massive influ in Africa, with RAW also conducting ops extensively. In the end, Africa will be required by India as we grow, because we will need minerals and large farmlands, along with cheap labour(maybe 20 years time). We don't have any influence in Europe, excluding maybe UK. Middle East I agree.

FATF blacklist(discussing here as it directly pertains to the Indian economy as well, look at Indian exports to Pak indirectly AFTER Aug 5, you will find some VERY interesting stuff) is unlikely. Three countries supporting them and Pak gets out. They will probably remain in the Grey-List, but Black-List is unlikely, as they already have the support of Turkey and China. Malaysia is a bit of an unknown. If Malaysia supports us, and everyone votes like they did last time, Pak will go to the Black-List. Unlikely that this will happen. Higher forces will get someone to support Pak, while they themselves vote against Pak to maintain their veneer of benevolence and tough-on-China optic.