Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[Sehwag213]

complete lockdown was a stupid idea from the very beginning. Even if the virus wouldn't,the economic impact alone would kill the people.

Now we are facing a dual brunt of a nearly collapsed economy and a rising infection cases that has spiraled out of control.

Lockdown was a good move. Problem started when states started extending the lockdown even after April . Basically states took control of the economy this quarter.

 

[warriorextreme]

Explain this too.........

I believe our numbers are YoY, the person who did this graphic used YoY for India & QoQ for other countries. As stated in my post that you quoted the entire economy was put to snooze to save lives except just a few sectors that too were working at a reduced rate.

On one side we an opposition that says pappu alerted government in February (which he did not and what he actually did was fear mongering) & lockdown should have been implemented then & the same pathetic opposition is now talking about damage to the economy due to lockdown.

It was evident at the start of this that to save lives we will have to pay a heavy price. It does not take much to understand that the heavy price was the damage to the economy.

Now please don't quote me again and write oh but Lockdown did not work. It did work as we have one of the lowest per capita deaths considering our population size.

 

[Chanakya 002]

What is the current F reserve of top 10 countries.

 

[Haldilal]

What is the current F reserve of top 10 countries.

Rank	Country or region	Foreign exchange reserves (millions of US$)	Figures as of	Change from previous data (millions of US$) weekly/monthly
1	China	3,298,220	July 2020	54,898
2	Japan	1,402,475	July 2020	19,012
3	Switzerland	896,111	June 2020	48,414
4	Russis	590,800	21 Aug 2020	600
5	India	537,548	21 Aug 2020	2,296
6	Taipei	496,170	July 2020	7,480
7	Saudi Arabia	447,356	June 2020	1,876
8	Hong Kong	445,900	June 2020	1,100
9	South Korea	416,500	July 2020	5,800
10	Brazil	348,781	June 2020	3,075
11	Singapore	321,351	July 2020	8,854

 

[captscooby81]

Some sort of recovery is visible from Maruti's August Sales numbers at least . Reporting growth of 20 % for the first time in this year . Looks like migrant labourers who had returned home had put some good time of theirs into farming . Only a rural push can give such numbers . Cities are still in lockdown

 

[captscooby81]

What do you expect when whole country is inside their homes for 45 days in its peak season and still expect no contraction in economy .

Lets look at sectors which would have contributed majorly but then went nil

April-May Summer holiday season : hotels shutdown, Travels restrictions , theme parks and movie all shut , Holidays plans all vanished

March-April are always considered high activity months , May-June are always lean months again activity picks up after August-November considering the festive season .

On March we had 3000+ labourers in 2 of our projects put together , Today after labourers back with special train and buses we have 1200 only . Already 1 project completion is pushed back by 5 months .

People who keep saying lockdown didn't worked should talk to the families of 65000 who died in wuhan virus and ask them would they prefer to have their loved ones alive today or economic prosperity .

GDP of India: GDP growth contracts by 23.9% in Q1 against 3.1% growth in previous quarter | India Business News - Times of India

India Business News: India's gross domestic product growth for the first quarter (ended June 30) of the financial year 2020-21 suffered the largest quarterly slump of 23.9

m.timesofindia.com

Economy tanks by almost 24 percent in 1st quarter of FY 21 . Mega recession

 

[avknight1408]

Manufacturing PMI signals growth for first time in five months: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/manufacturing-pmi-signals-growth-for-first-time-in-five-months/article32493468.ece

Easing of lockdown improves factory performance, but employment continues to decline
A day after the announcement of the steepest contraction ever in GDP, there is something to cheer. Factories in India have shown the best performance in five months, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) at 52 for August, against 46 for July. A reading above 50 indicates an overall increase month-on-month.
IHS Markit, the agency which prepares the index, said the expansion in PMI was a result of an improvement in customer demand as businesses reopened after the easing of lockdown restrictions. Output and new orders expanded at the fastest pace since February. However, the bad news is job cuts continued into August, extending the current sequence of jobs decline to five months.

Improving health
Shreeya Patel, Economist at IHS Markit, said the August data highlighted positive developments in the health of the Indian manufacturing sector, signalling moves towards a recovery from the second quarter downturn. The pick-up in demand from domestic markets gave rise to upturns in production and input buying, she added.
However, not all was positive in August. Delivery times lengthened to another marked rate amid the ongoing Covid-19 disruption. Meanwhile, employment continued to fall despite signs of capacity pressures, as firms struggled to find suitable workers.
“The rate of input price inflation was solid, following four monthly declines in cost burdens. Firms, however, continued in their efforts to drive sales amid greater competitive pressure and reduced their selling prices further,” Patel said.
Manufacturing has a share of around 15 per cent in India’s Gross Value Added (GVA). Despite the low share, it is considered the biggest provider of employment — directly or indirectly.
Supply chain disruption
According to the report accompanying PMI, supply chains were disrupted for the sixth consecutive month, with firms citing transportation restrictions, supplier delays and capacity pressures as the main drivers of lengthening delivery times.
Looking ahead, Indian manufacturers remained optimistic for the next 12 months. Positive sentiment was often attributed to hope of the passing of pandemic, improving client demand, and new business wins. Nevertheless, “market uncertainty and the onset of a global recession weighed slightly on the degree of confidence which was below the series average in August”, the report said.
PMI is prepared on the basis of responses from purchasing managers associated with around 400 manufacturers. The panel is stratified by detailed sector and company workforce size, based on contributions to GDP.
Survey responses are collected in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses. The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease.

 

[Chanakya 002]

Rank	Country or region	Foreign exchange reserves (millions of US$)	Figures as of	Change from previous data (millions of US$) weekly/monthly
1	China	3,298,220	July 2020	54,898
2	Japan	1,402,475	July 2020	19,012
3	Switzerland	896,111	June 2020	48,414
4	Russis	590,800	21 Aug 2020	600
5	India	537,548	21 Aug 2020	2,296
6	Taipei	496,170	July 2020	7,480
7	Saudi Arabia	447,356	June 2020	1,876
8	Hong Kong	445,900	June 2020	1,100
9	South Korea	416,500	July 2020	5,800
10	Brazil	348,781	June 2020	3,075
11	Singapore	321,351	July 2020	8,854

How much time it will take India to be on fourth place? Any idea

 

[Haldilal]

How much time it will take India to be on fourth place? Any idea

Russia will see a slight drop and india will see again a rise in the Foreign Reserves so within 6 months.

 

[here2where]

deciding which is more important - lives or economy - is a moral dilemma. we should all be opting to lock ourselves in till this storm passes over, to hell with saving neighbourhood restaurants/pubs/malls and step out only for absolute essentials. yep this takes a toll on businesses and employment. but that's the price to pay for opting to stay alive.

 

[DG7867]

Rank	Country or region	Foreign exchange reserves (millions of US$)	Figures as of	Change from previous data (millions of US$) weekly/monthly
1	China	3,298,220	July 2020	54,898
2	Japan	1,402,475	July 2020	19,012
3	Switzerland	896,111	June 2020	48,414
4	Russis	590,800	21 Aug 2020	600
5	India	537,548	21 Aug 2020	2,296
6	Taipei	496,170	July 2020	7,480
7	Saudi Arabia	447,356	June 2020	1,876
8	Hong Kong	445,900	June 2020	1,100
9	South Korea	416,500	July 2020	5,800
10	Brazil	348,781	June 2020	3,075
11	Singapore	321,351	July 2020	8,854

Chinkis have change of 55k over month/week... they are clearly stocking up for near future when shit hits the fan..

 

[fire starter]

Now any more lockdown is totally useless since cases are increasing at the same rate.

 

[ashdoc]

What do you expect when whole country is inside their homes for 45 days in its peak season and still expect no contraction in economy .

Lets look at sectors which would have contributed majorly but then went nil

April-May Summer holiday season : hotels shutdown, Travels restrictions , theme parks and movie all shut , Holidays plans all vanished

March-April are always considered high activity months , May-June are always lean months again activity picks up after August-November considering the festive season .

On March we had 3000+ labourers in 2 of our projects put together , Today after labourers back with special train and buses we have 1200 only . Already 1 project completion is pushed back by 5 months .

People who keep saying lockdown didn't worked should talk to the families of 65000 who died in wuhan virus and ask them would they prefer to have their loved ones alive today or economic prosperity .

The lockdown was implemented without warning and many workers were stranded in the places they worked without work or money . This must have contributed to the recession . One wonders why the lockdown was not implemented giving due warning few days earlier so that workers could have gone home .

 

[26/11]

The lockdown was implemented without warning and many workers were stranded in the places they worked without work or money . This must have contributed to the recession . One wonders why the lockdown was not implemented giving due warning few days earlier so that workers could have gone home .

This was tried in Taminadu leading to chaos.

Chaos and panic buying in major Tamil Nadu cities before lockdown

Physical distancing, masks ignored as crowds throng markets.

www.thehindu.com

If you tell people that there is going to be lockdown after two days your railway stations, bus stations, market, restaurant etc will be in chaos as everyone will try to complete their shopping, travel etc before the clock hits. This might end up increasing the virus transmission.

 

[Haldilal]

Unlike china, we do report bad news in India. The impact of the China virus on our GDP is well known. but we are happier with what our boys did at the border.

 

[another_armchair]

Chinkis have change of 55k over month/week... they are clearly stocking up for near future when shit hits the fan..

The national debt[note 1] (or government debt) of the People's Republic of China is the total amount of money owed by the government and all state organizations and government branches of China. As of May 2020, it stands at approximately CN¥ 39 trillion (US$ 5.48 trillion),[1] equivalent to about 48.4% of GDP. Standard & Poor's Global Ratings has stated Chinese local governments may have an additional CN¥40 trillion ($5.8 trillion) in off-balance sheet debt.[2] The high debt level is a current economic issue facing China.[3][4][5]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_China

Their situation is not very rosy considering a big chunk of their debt is backed by dud assets within China invested in ghost towns and infrastructure that nobody uses. This is being reported for over 8-10 years and they continue building with older ghost towns crumbling and yet finding no takers.

After running out of options in the domestic market, they embarked on BRI and went about building infrastructure elsewhere and the blowback from the same is quite real from several countries.
Not sure how they intend to absorb those losses though on paper, they are owed over 5 trillion usd by over a 100 countries for building crappy infrastructure at a cost of ~900 billion usd. That's a straight 500 percent appreciation (interest costs) .

The Chinese were banking on India turning into a dumping ground of well over 200 billion usd in coming years but then Galwan happened.

 

[ezsasa]

The lockdown was implemented without warning and many workers were stranded in the places they worked without work or money . This must have contributed to the recession . One wonders why the lockdown was not implemented giving due warning few days earlier so that workers could have gone home .

Risk was of Chinese virus spreading to villages without corresponding health infra to handle it. If we recall we didn’t even have sufficient PPE & testing kits in the first month.

It did turn out later that village folk were smarter than city folk in handling the virus.

 

[another_armchair]

Risk was of Chinese virus spreading to villages without corresponding health infra to handle it. If we recall we didn’t even have sufficient PPE & testing kits in the first month.

It did turn out later that village folk were smarter than city folk in handling the virus.

1. Health ministry was caught napping. Those wankers banned export of PPE and other equipment but refused to give specifications to Indian manufacturers. We depended on WHO, a foreign entity. Which sensible country governing over 1.3 billion people would outsource its national health policy to the WHO which was called out for being a Chinese puppet. Then they floated tenders for procurement and imported PPE suits from China. Like WTF?
The Health Ministry and its affiliates were in comatose till end of March. ICMR was hallucinating on a different tangent altogether. It still is. They had three months to prepare from January till end of March. Very little moved.
The movement of people from Maharasthra and Gujarat post lifting of Lockdown 1 was what led to a massive rise in cases. Regardless, even now, there is no standard treatment protocol on how to deal with ARDS or cytokine storm in Covid patients. Most hospitals and doctors simply shut the doors on patients exhibiting these symptoms which usually happens among patients with comorbidities.
Was this plandemic meticulously planned by detractors of Modi? Don't know but it definitely reeks of it.

2. Modi brought the axe on his own feet by imposing a downright stupid nationwide lockdown. It pushed people and state govt's into penury. Scores of folks in my neighborhood tested positive for covid in Bangalore and remained asymptomatic throughout their so called treatment. Hospitals made money, Govt. bodies got money from centre.

If Modi has half a brain left, he should immediately lift the lockdown and ensure there are adequate facilities available for serious covid patients. Ensure people wear masks and maintain some kind of social distancing.
The testing kits have thrown a ton of false positives. Don't understand how covid positive patients were forcefully discharged from hospitals within three days and told to go home in Bangalore though they wanted to stay in the hospital and continue paying for the treatment. Dal mein kala hai ya poori daal kaali hai, pata nahi?

The handling of Covid was a monumental failure and it eclipsed the horror of demonetization that was heaped on hapless Indian public.

Let there be criticism where it is due.

No matter their tomfoolery, will continue voting for BJP and Modi till a better RW alternative emerges.

 

[captscooby81]

Not only Top 1 now No 2 & 3 also positing growth in their sales . TATA has pulled impressive numbers , Remember they don't have entry level models in Alto or S-presso like maruti . Numbers are not only better than previous month but also better than YoY for the same month

 

[ashdoc]

1. Health ministry was caught napping. Those wankers banned export of PPE and other equipment but refused to give specifications to Indian manufacturers. We depended on WHO, a foreign entity. Which sensible country governing over 1.3 billion people would outsource its national health policy to the WHO which was called out for being a Chinese puppet. Then they floated tenders for procurement and imported PPE suits from China. Like WTF?
The Health Ministry and its affiliates were in comatose till end of March. ICMR was hallucinating on a different tangent altogether. It still is. They had three months to prepare from January till end of March. Very little moved.
The movement of people from Maharasthra and Gujarat post lifting of Lockdown 1 was what led to a massive rise in cases. Regardless, even now, there is no standard treatment protocol on how to deal with ARDS or cytokine storm in Covid patients. Most hospitals and doctors simply shut the doors on patients exhibiting these symptoms which usually happens among patients with comorbidities.
Was this plandemic meticulously planned by detractors of Modi? Don't know but it definitely reeks of it.

2. Modi brought the axe on his own feet by imposing a downright stupid nationwide lockdown. It pushed people and state govt's into penury. Scores of folks in my neighborhood tested positive for covid in Bangalore and remained asymptomatic throughout their so called treatment. Hospitals made money, Govt. bodies got money from centre.

If Modi has half a brain left, he should immediately lift the lockdown and ensure there are adequate facilities available for serious covid patients. Ensure people wear masks and maintain some kind of social distancing.
The testing kits have thrown a ton of false positives. Don't understand how covid positive patients were forcefully discharged from hospitals within three days and told to go home in Bangalore though they wanted to stay in the hospital and continue paying for the treatment. Dal mein kala hai ya poori daal kaali hai, pata nahi?

The handling of Covid was a monumental failure and it eclipsed the horror of demonetization that was heaped on hapless Indian public.

Let there be criticism where it is due.

No matter their tomfoolery, will continue voting for BJP and Modi till a better RW alternative emerges.

Advani should have been made PM between 2014-2019 . At least he would have handled the economy better . At that time he was in decent health . This Modi has totally gone against expectations . Considering that Gujarat had a good growth rate when he was CM one had high expectations of growth when he became PM . Indeed was one of the reasons why I voted for him in 2014 . Economically at least Modi has not succeeded at all .