Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[sorcerer]

ONGC starts up first deepwater gas well at 98/2 project offshore India

 

[Assassin 2.0]

How do you guy's see the situation for india?
What are going to be long term effects because of this Chinese virus and how are we going to cope up with this shit?

 

[sorcerer]

India’s foreign exchange reserves rise by 5.65 billion after falling for 2 weeks

https://www.apnnews.com/indias-fore...se-by-5-65-billion-after-falling-for-2-weeks/

 

[Haldiram]

Where does your 5% figure come from? almost all banks have double digit NPAs in the high teens.

Compare the respective bank's NPA against their respective profits. Y-o-Y compounded losses are piling up.

NPAs are part of the lending game but one can understand 3-5% NPAs out of 100 loans. These can be written off as business losses. What about double digit NPAs for decades? to the point where the bank itself has to be frozen. Is this the normal order of things?

The loans with the collateral are not the problem, the bank knows that procedure all too well. The problem is the complicity of banks in knowingly handing out OUR deposit money to people who have not given a collateral and who the bank KNEW beforehand is not going to repay the loan. It's one thing if the borrower turns out to be a fraud later, but the bigger NPAs are from people who have fed the system with the intention of defrauding the depositors right from the start, and they have run away from the country and the depositors are in a lurch.

Lending without collateral is not lending, it's INVESTING. When SBI gives my money to Mallya without securing a collateral, they are investing my money in his company at a risk (my risk). That's not what I make a safe deposit for. It's called safe for a reason. The bank is supposed to take a collateral of appropriate value as safety. If I wanted to make a collateral-free investment in Mallya's vision, I could have bought his company's stocks directly, instead of putting my money in SBI.

Aise NPA rakhoge toh aise hi results aayenge. Beej boye babool ke..aam kahan se aaye.

Posting a follow up to this after yearly data just arrived. PSU banks, private banks, all down an average -70%.

 

[Haldiram]

How do you guy's see the situation for india?
What are going to be long term effects because of this Chinese virus and how are we going to cope up with this shit?

The IMF is not an apolitical or academic institution. All their comments and actions are colored by their paymaster's vested interests. India is doing fine. This quarter will shrink due to lockdown but other than that we ain't in 2008.

It's a whiteboi's club with a white-man's burden kinda world view.

Bitch be sayin..."WHO is there to protect the people and IMF is there the protect world economy?" dafuq dat mean? is there also a health minister of the world and finance minister of the world? whitebois think the whole world revolves around them and they can govern the world with their institutions. Very typical of whitebois. When Europeans kill each other they call it a 'world war'. It ain't a world war, it's a European war. Same with this 'global recession'. Europe has slipped in a recession. USA, China and India will float. The size of our consumer base is too big for the GDP to become 0%. Europe's engine on the other hand has been running on the left over fumes of their loot from their former glory days but they lack the population strength to support a huge GDP growth on top of their current base.

India will get a huge leap on top of a low base and huge untapped consumer base.

 

[Haldiram]

Posting about Germany for context, their population is just 8 crores. This is not enough to support a consumerist society. They may be highly productive and produce a lot (hence the high income per capita) but a disproportionately high income-per-capita also needs very high domestic consumption-per-capita. They lack in the population department.

India has a thriving middle-class and more than 70% of what we produce gets consumed domestically.

It’s been no secret that Germany, which has a reputation as the economic engine of Europe, is in a troubling demographic predicament. With one of the oldest populations in Europe, and a low fertility rate of just 1.5 births per woman, it is only a matter of time before the rubber hits the road to affect growth in the country.

That time may be finally creeping in, and the country is poised to hit a dubious milestone in the next year that really crystallizes concerns around the demographic composition of Germany’s population.

By 2019, there will be fewer Germans under 30 years old than there are Germans that are 60+ years:

This ratio is certainly extreme on a global level – after all, 24.4% of the world population is under the age of 14, and only 12.3% is older than 60 years.

 

[Kumata]

This benefits us immensely. Ain't no one even talking about it. All the paints, solvents, varnishes, plastic, rubber industries will gobble up all this cheap raw material like Adriana Chechick gobbles nunnus.

Does it make sense to invest in crude futures...

 

[nongaddarliberal]

Posting about Germany for context, their population is just 8 crores. This is not enough to support a consumerist society. They may be highly productive and produce a lot (hence the high income per capita) but a disproportionately high income-per-capita also needs very high domestic consumption-per-capita. They lack in the population department.

India has a thriving middle-class and more than 70% of what we produce gets consumed domestically.



View attachment 45245

If we take care of our energy needs, and somehow get scientifically advanced enough to keep up with the rest of the world in tech, we can have a completely self sustaining economy. The energy part is tricky, but at least we can concentrate on scientific advancements, so that we can produce high tech consumer products cheaply, tailor made for India. 1.38 Billion is a LOT of consumers, but they need money to consume something in the first place.

 

[Haldiram]

If we take care of our energy needs, and somehow get scientifically advanced enough to keep up with the rest of the world in tech, we can have a completely self sustaining economy. The energy part is tricky, but at least we can concentrate on scientific advancements, so that we can produce high tech consumer products cheaply, tailor made for India. 1.38 Billion is a LOT of consumers, but they need money to consume something in the first place.

The demand always comes first, the cash follows in search of demand. Imagine you were a business owner and you figure that there is a demand for your product in Nigeria, but the people ain't rich enough to buy what you have to sell, wont you still set up a manufacturing plant in Nigeria and extend a line of credit to allow them to buy your product? Once the first generation has used your product on your credit line, the next generation will have enough money to repay your soft loan and pay for your other products as well. Same with India.

Even if we don't manage to build the tech from the ground up, Europe will sell their know how to us in exchange for royalties or an outright TOT fee. They are in dire need of money to save their economy. Just like Russia has been scavenging its military tech and selling it to India over these years, Europe will follow suit.

IKEA, BMW, Audi, Wallmart, all gon become a part of India's manufacturing story in a big way. This is just the start. Even Xiaomi has set up a manufacturing plant in India.

When the Thorium reactors are up and running we'll be less dependent on foreign energy sources. Right now we are getting Uranium from Kazakstan.

 

[IndianHawk]

When the Thorium reactors are up and running we'll be less dependent on foreign energy sources. Right now we are getting Uranium from Kazakstan.

With recent discovery in Andhra Pradesh we now have as much uranium reserve as USA .
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_uranium_reserves

But ramping up production may take time and capital. And Kazakhstan / Australia uranium may be cheaper in the meantime.

 

[IndianHawk]

Europe will sell their know how to us. They are in dire need of money to save their economy. Just like Russia has been scavenging its military tech and selling it to India over these years, Europe will follow suit.

That's already happening. Tata bought jaguar and has infuesd the tech in recent products from harrier to nexon to tigor ev. A lot of European firms are being bought up by Indian conglomerates. Mahindra even bought Australia / UK aerospace firm and is now marketing a 5 seater plane world wide.

Chinese did the same at a much larger scale and that tech assimilation is the reason why Chinese consumer products have become so much better at least the medium to high priced once.

 

[Haldiram]

How do you guy's see the situation for india?
What are going to be long term effects because of this Chinese virus and how are we going to cope up with this shit?

PS : If the IMF is so serious about ending the global economic downfall, let it come out with punitive measures for countries like the US which use economic sanctions as an instrument of economic war.

No use trying to act innocent now when the IMF itself participated in these sanctions which had no economic purpose and which did not gel with their mission statement. They were purely geo-political moves.

India has always maintained that unilateral economic sanctions are a violation of WTO norms, still the US keeps using it.

Everyone has to save their own economy, ain't nobody care about IMF, and ain't IMF care about nobody either.

 

[IndianHawk]

PS : If the IMF is so serious about ending the global economic downfall, let it come out with punitive measures for countries like the US which use economic sanctions as an instrument of economic war.

No use trying to act innocent now when the IMF itself participated in these sanctions which had no economic purpose and which did not gel with their mission statement. They were purely geo-political moves.

India has always maintained that unilateral economic sanctions are a violation of WTO norms, still the US keeps using it.

Everyone has to save their own economy, ain't nobody care about IMF, and ain't IMF care about nobody either.

IMF was always an American stooge. Nothing new here. Global economic system is now broken it's each for his own now.

 

[LondonParisTokyo]

India and its academic institutions and people need a fundamental rethink of how they approach problems. For years, decades, centuries probably Indians have looked out instead of in. Approval from a foreigner means more than approval from a fellow Indian. Instead of relying on the IMF and all this other stuff, follow the China model. Send the best to study in the US at the top institutions. Bring them back afterwards. Undergraduate, Masters, PhD. Their experience and expertise should then be put into the universities in India, but not just at a teaching level but at a designing level.

Simultaneously, stop worrying about what the IMF, the ABC, the QED etc all think about you. Rescind visas for journalists who continue to slander the government. If they do not change what and how they write, kick them out. You have a right. You are a civilization much older than any of these outlets put together.

Restructure the society. Absolve the IAS and bring in true meritocracy. Protests will be temporary. Use intelligence, security, and home ministries to predict where they will be and stop them before they happen. Do the same for land and labor reform.

Ban foreigners who come for ministry work, it doesn't matter the religion. This isn't needed in the country and will only divide it further. There's more too but this is all I have off the top of my head

 

[sorcerer]

NHAI achieves highest ever Construction of National Highways in FY 2019-20
NHAI has accomplished construction of 3,979 km of national highways in the financial Year 2019-20. This is the highest ever highway construction achieved in a financial year by NHAI. The construction pace as noticed in last years has seen a steady growth with 3,380 Km construction in the FY 2018-19. Continuing the same trend with the development of 3,979 km of national highways during FY 2019-20, NHAI has achieved an all-time high construction since its inception in 1995.

 

[south block]

India and its academic institutions and people need a fundamental rethink of how they approach problems. For years, decades, centuries probably Indians have looked out instead of in. Approval from a foreigner means more than approval from a fellow Indian. Instead of relying on the IMF and all this other stuff, follow the China model. Send the best to study in the US at the top institutions. Bring them back afterwards. Undergraduate, Masters, PhD. Their experience and expertise should then be put into the universities in India, but not just at a teaching level but at a designing level.

Simultaneously, stop worrying about what the IMF, the ABC, the QED etc all think about you. Rescind visas for journalists who continue to slander the government. If they do not change what and how they write, kick them out. You have a right. You are a civilization much older than any of these outlets put together.

Restructure the society. Absolve the IAS and bring in true meritocracy. Protests will be temporary. Use intelligence, security, and home ministries to predict where they will be and stop them before they happen. Do the same for land and labor reform.

Ban foreigners who come for ministry work, it doesn't matter the religion. This isn't needed in the country and will only divide it further. There's more too but this is all I have off the top of my head

Lol IAS is a meritocracy. ---- what we really need is high skilled technocrats in system. ---- India need a disciplined workforce groomed in scientific manner. --- most Indians from what I observe are susceptible to flattering. --- are emotional. --- are to defensive instead of ignoring things. --- simply they lack discipline --- just look how western conduct there media news, and other thing. --- no music and other low grade Bollywood crap like we see here. ---- proper discussion on topic. --- to much macho culture pumped my media lol and low IQ politician including current dispensation and it's bots on social media are ruining another generation.

 

[south block]

That's already happening. Tata bought jaguar and has infuesd the tech in recent products from harrier to nexon to tigor ev. A lot of European firms are being bought up by Indian conglomerates. Mahindra even bought Australia / UK aerospace firm and is now marketing a 5 seater plane world wide.

Chinese did the same at a much larger scale and that tech assimilation is the reason why Chinese consumer products have become so much better at least the medium to high priced once.

Tata ne puray desh ko chuna laga Diya. --- tum in charsioon ke gun gaan chood do.

 

[indiatester]

Received this from my CFA.

Some of the well known companies from Nifty 500 basket, whose current market price (CMP) is same as many years ago price. (Dividend Excluded)

 

[Hijibiji]

The value paradox kicks in at such a time. Meaning, we're buying a stock because it is trading at a discount to its previous value, by that yardstick, the steeper the discount the better the purchase. But if it were such a good stock then it wouldn't have given such a steep discount. So the question arises, do you buy something that has fallen so steeply, or do you buy something that has not fallen as much, considering their relative resilience? decisions, decisions.

It could go either ways. The cheaper ones could bounce back if they were good or become even cheaper. The expensive ones could either be very strong stocks or just that their correction is pending and they may fall after we buy. Moral of da story be, just price alone cannot be a metric for judging the quality and 2 years is not a good enough fermenting time. Just 45 days of correction has evaporated 5 years of gains. The gains are incrementally slow and the falls are sharp and quick. Consequently the equity returns from the decade of 2009 to 2019 are 4% cagr << even less than an FD. 10 years is blink of an eye in the market. The money will just keep going up and down notionally but not go anywhere conclusively. If you take a 20-30 year view, then equity beats FD otherwise FD beats equity on a 10 year horizon.

2 years? not worth the risk. It could go further down, or if it goes up a bit, the STCG tax will cap your gains below FD rate anyway.

This is new wisdom for me. For last 10 years everybody told me that if i had to buy stocks, i must have 7-to-8-to-10 years of "maturity period". Now i get that actually the view should be for 20-30 years.

Talking about 30 years, there were specialists here who routinely projected the projected growth of Indian economy in 2035 (These projections were given 2014 onwards... i saw that far back, not sure what happened before 2014). But these talks have taken a backseat now.

My view is that it is better to analyse/ predict/ speculate for a 5 year period than about 35 years period (That's more for Indian economy and not stock market). As far as stock market is considered, for lower middle class guys like me, only disposable income should be in stock- only that amount the loss of which would not affect my sleep. For richer people, the equations will be different.

 

[Haldiram]

Her economic incompetency always eclipsed her aggressive foreign and defence policies. Caused more loss than gains.
Only significant thing which gave India long term gains she did was dissolving Pakistan.

No, I don't beat you by a mile. You keep on shitting same shit over & over without any justification.

There is absolutely at least no logical justification to oppose liberalisation and justifying socialism. You can't do anything except name calling because your economic concept is useless and proven piece of shit around world.

Liberalization in those times meant allowing Western capital and companies to flood India. At that time we had just achieved freedom from these colonial Allied powers. Again allowing them to come back in to invest their colonial wealth in the name of liberalization would be like inviting them to re-colonize us.

Where she messed up is not allowing meritocracy to flourish within India, the way German and Japan did after WW. Nationalization of banks wouldn't be a problem if the appointments to those banks was done through proper exams and not through favoritism.

We had to open up our economy in phases. Narsimha Rao started the phase 1, Vajpayee did phase 2, Modi is doing phase 3. Even after all these phases, we do not allow more than 50% FDI in 90% of the sectors. We should only allow that much capital which we can digest. If we liberalize too soon, the Westerners with deep pockets will come in and gain monopoly over everything. Opposing liberalization doesn't automatically mean supporting socialism. We need to support domestic capitalism. Pehle DMart ko establish hone ka chance do, fir Walmart ko andar aane do. Pehle Walmart ko bula liya hota toh Dmart kabhi establish hota hi nahi.

There are many Indian companies that are in their take off stage. There's not a single national chain of vada paav or any other desi food item selling on nation-wide scale or listed on the exchange. Utni badi koi company hai hi nahi. Dominoes aur McDonalds pehle hi puri country me pizza chains bana ke fast-food pe monopoly bana ke baithe hai. Thumbs UP was started by Parle Agro. Coca Cola came and bought all 3 for just 60 million > Thumbs UP, Goldspot, Limca. That's because of the power differential between the buyer and seller. Parle Agro was never able to buy it back from them.

Aisa one-sided free market kis kaam ka jidhar apna market share dusron ko bechna pad raha hai and on the other hand they are sanctioning our IT and Pharma companies when we operate on US soil. All of protectionism is not socialism.