Indian Economy: News and Discussion

ezsasa

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@ezsasa @sorcerer
Still that means we will have to depend on pool of countries for supply of Lithium - whose count will be even lesser than Oil producing countries. I really wish India spend on R&D of alternate battery technologies - like sodium nickel / graphene etc based tech.
i think for next 10 years focus would be on expanding the battery market. Chinese themselves have lithium reserves.
Chile and Australia are among the top 5 lithium reserves, supply probably won't be a problem for now.
 

AnantS

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i think for next 10 years focus would be on expanding the battery market. Chinese themselves have lithium reserves.
Chile and Australia are among the top 5 lithium reserves, supply probably won't be a problem for now.
umm.. I doubt we shall see any letup in pressure on Fiscal deficit. 10 yrs, somebody else will develop tech and call shots
 

Indx TechStyle

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As ₹ has been recovering, is there any chance of GDP again pegging at $2.85 trillions which was left little changed at $2.69 trillions earlier?
If deappreciation is undone, India will surpass UK as fifth largest economy next year, if didn't India will probably slip to 7th spot again next year and will stay for 1-2 years more.
 

indiatester

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As ₹ has been recovering, is there any chance of GDP again pegging at $2.85 trillions which was left little changed at $2.69 trillions earlier?
If deappreciation is undone, India will surpass UK as fifth largest economy next year, if didn't India will probably slip to 7th spot again next year and will stay for 1-2 years more.
Pound was severely beaten. You should take that into consideration too.
 

YagamiLight

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Falling oil prices will bring down India's import bill (of which oil is a significant chunk) and that's good news for current account deficit (the difference between the value of our imports and exports). If current price trends were to continue, India's oil import bill in 2018-19 would be much lower than Rs 8.8 lakh crore projected by the oil ministry based on an assumed crude price of $77.88 per barrel and an exchange rate of 72.22 per dollar. Lower oil price also means lower pressure on the rupee as we will need fewer dollars to buy oil. Centre will spend less on subsidising fuel and LPG prices and oil companies can cut petrol and diesel prices that had till last month been creating daily records. Local prices of petrol and diesel, factor in both international fuel rates as well as currency movements. An unlikely side effect could be easing of the government's dispute with Reserve Bank of India, which is about bringing in more money into the system. Since lower fuel prices also lower the risk of inflation, it means increased room for RBI to cut interest rate in future.
This btw is the reason why it is foolish to hoard natural resources rather than exploiting them because one can never know when new innovations can make the natural resource worthless . This also is the reason why banking on natural resources as the sole source of income will screw the economy like USSR/Russian reliance on oil prices.

This is the reason why Commie thugs who want to "protect" the iron/ coal from being "exploited" are just morons who dont understand economics and are actually harming the local economy from utilising its unique resources for development
 
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YagamiLight

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Pound was severely beaten. You should take that into consideration too.
I dont understand this obscession with nominal economic numbers- be it one measured in pound or dollars.

We pay our troops in Rupees, pay our miners in rupees, manufacturers in rupees while UK has to do all of it in pounds. For example while UK has to pay 40k$ for its soldiers per annum, India can pay 8k$ per annum for its soldiers for the same livlihood here. So how does this obscession help us in any way , even for comparison sake?

Even if one brings up the imports argument, thats a tiny fraction of our overall econmy, barely making up 15Bn$ of the 2.7Tn$ nominal economy. Thats peanuts.

A far more useful/realistic comparison is to compare the PPP of the countries
 

Indx TechStyle

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This btw is the reason why it is foolish to hoard natural resources rather than exploiting them because one can never know when new innovations can make the natural resource worthless . This also is the reason why banking on natural resources as the sole source of income will screw the economy like USSR/Russian reliance on oil prices.
USSR had own oil and had its fate in its hands, we are importing oil. So, till we look for alternatives, our fate remains out of our hands. Our economy will stop without oil. And despite being next to Middle East, we aren't an unchallegeable or formidable force here which can dictate those countries policies for serving our National Interests. And we can't become that without oil.
That's the problem altogether. Unchalleged ruler of Indian Ocean will be the real energy superpower of the world, not KSA.
I dont understand this obscession with nominal economic numbers- be it one measured in pound or dollars.
For international trade, you can't pay what you import in ₹ and even if ₹ becomes an IMF reserve currency in near future, $ is going to remain getting circulated more than it.
 

Haldiram

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As ₹ has been recovering, is there any chance of GDP again pegging at $2.85 trillions which was left little changed at $2.69 trillions earlier?
If deappreciation is undone, India will surpass UK as fifth largest economy next year, if didn't India will probably slip to 7th spot again next year and will stay for 1-2 years more.
If one looks at nations which consciously moved to industrial manufacturing as a large % of their GDP, these nations have typically voluntarily devalued their currencies to make exports conducive. India will probably follow the same model. In the short term, this 65-75 fluctuation means nothing. The long term trend of the rupee is to depreciate against the USD to attract FDI and FII. The export facing sectors will definitely benefit. If they depreciate the currency by 10%, they make sure that the profits arising from exports cover for the currency's loss, if not more.

Rupee devaluation is not necessarily a bad thing. In 1947, 1 rupee was = 1 USD. We definitely weren't equal to the US in terms of quality of life. Today it's nearly 75, but the relative quality of life of all Indians has gone up exponentially. Currency is just a theoretical figure. It means very little in real world terms. The Kuwait Dinar is the strongest currency, even stronger than the USD. It's 236 X Indian rupee. Their HDI is 0.84 (and going down). Indian HDI is 0.64 and going up. We neither have oil nor manufacturing (yet), all of our money is hard earned from service sector tasks. Even our defense manufacturing is about refitting Russian weapons for Vietnam etc. Once the actual homegrown manufacturing and exporting begins, we will ourselves hope that the rupee becomes 90-100 to the USD. We need to outbid other emerging economies.

On a different note, someone told me that as the economy grows, Indians will wear more chaddi-banyans. So I bought Rupa underwear's stocks. The amount of loss I've faced is more than the sum I've spent on all chaddis I've bought in my life. Bhailog, chaddi pehno BC, paisa dub raha hai. Kaun idhar bina chaddi pehne baitha hai. :cowboy:
 

indiatester

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If one looks at nations which consciously moved to industrial manufacturing as a large % of their GDP, these nations have typically voluntarily devalued their currencies to make exports conducive. India will probably follow the same model. In the short term, this 65-75 fluctuation means nothing. The long term trend of the rupee is to depreciate against the USD to attract FDI and FII. The export facing sectors will definitely benefit. If they depreciate the currency by 10%, they make sure that the profits arising from exports cover for the currency's loss, if not more.

Rupee devaluation is not necessarily a bad thing. In 1947, 1 rupee was = 1 USD. We definitely weren't equal to the US in terms of quality of life. Today it's nearly 75, but the relative quality of life of all Indians has gone up exponentially. Currency is just a theoretical figure. It means very little in real world terms. The Kuwait Dinar is the strongest currency, even stronger than the USD. It's 236 X Indian rupee. Their HDI is 0.84 (and going down). Indian HDI is 0.64 and going up. We neither have oil nor manufacturing (yet), all of our money is hard earned from service sector tasks. Even our defense manufacturing is about refitting Russian weapons for Vietnam etc. Once the actual homegrown manufacturing and exporting begins, we will ourselves hope that the rupee becomes 90-100 to the USD. We need to outbid other emerging economies.

On a different note, someone told me that as the economy grows, Indians will wear more chaddi-banyans. So I bought Rupa underwear's stocks. The amount of loss I've faced is more than the sum I've spent on all chaddis I've bought in my life. Bhailog, chaddi pehno BC, paisa dub raha hai. Kaun idhar bina chaddi pehne baitha hai. :cowboy:
Man, Chaddi Baniyan was an essential commodity may be 5-10% people picked it up now, but has always been there. It would come under essential commodity (if its not for you, please keep 6 ft distance from me :cowboy:)

You must be looking at discretionary spending. Daru :daru: for ex. That will grow.
 

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India can Produce 62 MMT of CBG

Chandigarh: India can produce 62 million tonnes of compressed bio gas (CBG) that will be sufficient enough to replace entire demand for gas, Vijay Sharma, Director in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, said Saturday.

“If total potential of CBG is exploited in the country, India can produce approximately 62 million tonnes equivalent of CBG annually which is sufficient to replace the entire gas demand of the nation,” Sharma said here while addressing a gathering.

Sharma pointed out that CBG has multiple benefits such as waste management, reduction in carbon emissions, additional revenue source for farmers, boost to entrepreneurship and rural economy by the way of generating employment opportunities.

Sharma emphasised that promoting CBG in the transport sector would isolate economy from fluctuating crude oil and gas price.

He said CBG is produced from waste sources like agriculture residue, cattle dung, sugarcane press mud, municipal solid waste, sewage treatment plant waste.

After purification, it is compressed and CBG which has high methane content.

On this occasion, S Jeyakrishnan, Director-Marketing, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd, said oil marketing companies were committed to support the nation with indigenous fuel production and reduce its import dependency.

“Thus, OMCs have come up with remunerative price for CBG suppliers to ensure attractiveness of the SATAT (sustainable alternative towards affordable transportation) initiative and devise alternative means to support fuel requirement for Indian transport sector,” he said.

Public Sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) IOCL, BPCL and HPCL Saturday organized a road show in order to create awareness about SATAT.

SATAT is aimed to establish 5,000 CBG plants across the country with an estimated CBG production of 15 MMT/annum by 2023.

Source: PTI
 

Haldiram

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I was banking on the 300 million people who will be brought over from lower middle class to middle class.

...but looking at the graph of Rupa, it's almost like people made a new year resolution in 2018..."bas! aaj se chaddi nahi pehenni"



Bought GM Breweries as my nationalistic contribution to desi daru. United Spirits looks mighty expensive at a PE of 70. Radico Khaitan is at 35 PE << Tracking this one.
 
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Haldiram

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Kshatriya87

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Stocks
  • Japan’s Topix index fell 1 percent at the 11:30 a.m. break in Tokyo.
  • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.7 percent.
  • South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.9 percent.
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.5 percent.
  • S&P 500 futures rose 0.2 percent. The S&P 500 declined 1.8 percent.
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8 percent.
Currencies
  • The Japanese yen edged lower to 112.86 per dollar.
  • The offshore yuan traded at 6.9427 per dollar.
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was stable after gaining 0.5 percent.
  • The euro traded at $1.1372.
  • The British pound was at $1.2790.
Bonds
  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries nudged higher to 3.07 percent, remaining near the lowest since September.
  • Australia’s 10-year bond yield rose one basis point to 2.70 percent.
Commodities
  • West Texas Intermediate crude recovered 1.3 percent to $54.10 a barrel after sliding 6.6 percent to the lowest since October 2017.
  • Gold was steady at $1,221.65 an ounce.
Asia Stocks Fall as Wall St. Woes Spread to Debt: Markets Wrap

 

Kshatriya87

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Asia markets lower as investors trade cautiously after Wall Street slump
  • Asia markets declined on Wednesday morning amid shaky investor confidence after steep losses on Wall Street overnight.
  • Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 500 points as it erased its gains for 2018.
  • In the oil markets, crude prices fell by almost 7 percent on Tuesday after seeing four days of gains.
 

Haldiram

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Rupee Closes Higher Against Dollar For Sixth Day In A Row
This is the sixth straight session of gains for the domestic unit as the US dollar weakened against some currencies overseas.
It's interesting to note that last month analysts were saying that the markets were falling because of oil prices and rupee depreciation and fall in Indian industrial productivity. Now the rupee has strengthened and oil prices have inched down and quarterly results have shown positive industrial growth, still the market crashed yesterday.

Oil and currency have shown in the past that any correlation is flimsy.



This is not just for emerging markets but even the US economy has shown resilience to currency and oil fluctuations in its growing phase (where India is at right now.)



Our economy is doing really well. Oil and currency isn't exactly bleeding (compared to other economies). This is an artificial crisis created by Murica-China economic war. It will last for a while.
 
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Advaidhya Tiwari

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i think for next 10 years focus would be on expanding the battery market. Chinese themselves have lithium reserves.
Chile and Australia are among the top 5 lithium reserves, supply probably won't be a problem for now.
There is no magic wand. Battery has main problem that energy needs to be stored there and there is about 25% loss in storage and usage. In addition, we will need the same amount of energy to be generated to be stored in battery. Also, batteries have average life of 1000 cycles after which it has to be discarded. So, every 3 years the battery will have to be changed. This will be a massive resource drain. Also, there is simply no substitute for plastics and petrochemicals.

This btw is the reason why it is foolish to hoard natural resources rather than exploiting them because one can never know when new innovations can make the natural resource worthless . This also is the reason why banking on natural resources as the sole source of income will screw the economy like USSR/Russian reliance on oil prices.

This is the reason why Commie thugs who want to "protect" the iron/ coal from being "exploited" are just morons who dont understand economics and are actually harming the local economy from utilising its unique resources for development
Again it is wrong to over exploit. When a country runs out of resource, it will collapse like in case of Syria. Till now, it has been only about 80-90 years since oil production rose to significant levels. Just wait to see what happens when oil runs out. Coal extraction started since industrial revolution in 1700s and is still in use. No natural resource can be said to be useless. Running economy as a ponzi scheme by taking out millions of years of accumulated resource is nothing but an attempt to ruin future generations.

The only reason why the resource must be exploited is to develop "war manufacturing" infrastructure for survival, not for "standard of living". As of now, India need to exploit its resource to ensure that it is able to win wars in near future. If there was no war requirement, it is best to not extract resource

USSR had own oil and had its fate in its hands, we are importing oil. So, till we look for alternatives, our fate remains out of our hands. Our economy will stop without oil. And despite being next to Middle East, we aren't an unchallengeable or formidable force here which can dictate those countries policies for serving our National Interests. And we can't become that without oil.
That's the problem altogether. Unchalleged ruler of Indian Ocean will be the real energy superpower of the world, not KSA.
Again, I have told you several times that India has 20 crore muslims which it can expel into middle east. In addition, India can destroy Pakistan and send another 20 crore refugees. India offers "tolerance", "food" and "space" to muslims without which Middle east will collapse. If India has to do favour, it has to be returned with favours. So, India is a formidable force which can dictate Muslim oil supply to Indian interest.

You are ignoring one fundamental fact - Food is more important than petroleum. Just like Muslims have oil to offer, India has food to offer to muslims. Unless Muslims can find another country which will give them what India is giving - space, food and tolerance to 20 crore muslims, India will have a big say in muslim affairs

Rupee devaluation is not necessarily a bad thing. In 1947, 1 rupee was = 1 USD. We definitely weren't equal to the US in terms of quality of life. Today it's nearly 75, but the relative quality of life of all Indians has gone up exponentially. Currency is just a theoretical figure. It means very little in real world terms. The Kuwait Dinar is the strongest currency, even stronger than the USD. It's 236 X Indian rupee. Their HDI is 0.84 (and going down). Indian HDI is 0.64 and going up. We neither have oil nor manufacturing (yet), all of our money is hard earned from service sector tasks. Even our defense manufacturing is about refitting Russian weapons for Vietnam etc. Once the actual homegrown manufacturing and exporting begins, we will ourselves hope that the rupee becomes 90-100 to the USD. We need to outbid other emerging economies.
India is one of the largest manufacturer of automobiles, steel, medicine and few other products. Indian defence manufcaturing is also significant with manufacturing of almost all types of equipment in India either developed in India or by ToT. Just because India did not keep up with electronics manufacturing does not mean that India has no manufacturing. Electronics have acquired premium rates and are sold in large numbers nowadays because of which there appears to be a big gap in Indian manufacturing. But at the end of the day, the only real gap is only in electronics manufacturing.
 

no smoking

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Again, I have told you several times that India has 20 crore muslims which it can expel into middle east. In addition, India can destroy Pakistan and send another 20 crore refugees. India offers "tolerance", "food" and "space" to muslims without which Middle east will collapse.

Wow, this is most naïve and stupid suggestion I have ever seen in this forum. Expelling more than 15% of your own citizens? Do you understand what does that mean for the whole India society? They are already part of your social and economic system: they are also working for someone else, hiring someone else, buying from someone else, paying to someone else. Pulling them out of the whole circle will be the largest disaster India has ever seen. India will be the first one to see the consequence of this stupidity, and will be the one to suffer the most.


Besides, these people won’t just leave in peace. You take everything from them, they get nothing to lose. They will fight to death. You just provide Pakistan the largest fearless army with only one goal: taking India down to the hell with themselves. You can keep the peace with Pakistan, but with these people? Never.


Furthermore, what will other minorities of India think? If today you can expel these Muslims, who can guarantee that you won’t expel them tomorrow?




You are ignoring one fundamental fact - Food is more important than petroleum. Just like Muslims have oil to offer, India has food to offer to muslims. Unless Muslims can find another country which will give them what India is giving - space, food and tolerance to 20 crore muslims, India will have a big say in muslim affairs

Please check the reality before making claim: total food imports from India to Middle East is only about 9% of total food import in this area. India is a small player in this market.


On the other hand, about 64% of India’s crude oil imports came from Middle East.


These 2 figures tell you who is relying upon whom. In the past 50 years, middle east countries have been the most important financial supporter of Pakistan, did you see India even try to threat to cut the food or expel her own muslim citizens? If India couldn’t even dictate the Middle East money flowing into her top one enemy in the last 50 years, how can you come to the conclusion that India will have big say in Muslim affairs?



India is one of the largest manufacturer of automobiles, steel, medicine and few other products. Indian defence manufcaturing is also significant with manufacturing of almost all types of equipment in India either developed in India or by ToT. Just because India did not keep up with electronics manufacturing does not mean that India has no manufacturing. Electronics have acquired premium rates and are sold in large numbers nowadays because of which there appears to be a big gap in Indian manufacturing. But at the end of the day, the only real gap is only in electronics manufacturing.

Well, that is right to certain extent. The problem is these industries can barely satisfy the domestic market alone, not to mention playing a big role in export market. When you discuss the industrial capacity, please don’t forget a key issue: India is a 1.3b people country.


Another issue is: like every other developing country (including China), the majority of these industries are producing low-end products which are not very competitive in the market.
 

Kshatriya87

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Mumbai, November 21

Changes in regulatory landscape are making it unviable to operate ATMs, and may lead to the closure of half of the 2.38 lakh machines in the country by March 2019, the Confederation of ATM Industry (CATMi) warned on Wednesday.

Closure of the ATMs will impact thousands of jobs and also the the financial inclusion efforts of the government, the industry body said in a statement.

“Service providers may be forced to close down almost 1.13 lakh ATMs across the country by March 2019. These numbers include approximately one lakh off-site ATMs and a little over 15,000 white label ATMs,” it said.

The Tipping Point
The industry has reached a “tipping point”, the body added. A majority of the ATMs which can be shut down will be in the non-urban areas, it said, underlining that this can impact the financial inclusion efforts as beneficiaries use the machines to withdraw government subsidies.

The industry body said that recent regulatory changes, including those on hardware and software upgrades, coupled with mandates on cash management standards and the cassette swap method of loading cash, will make ATM operations unviable, resulting in the closure.

The new cash logistics and cassette swap method will alone result in costs of Rs 3,000 crore for the industry, it estimated.

It added that the ATM industry, including managed service providers, brown-label ATM deployers and white label ATM operators (WLAO), is still reeling under the shock of demonetisation.

“The situation has further deteriorated now due to the additional compliance requirements that call for a huge cost outlay. The service providers do not have the financial means to meet such massive costs and may be forced to shut down these ATMs,” it said.

The only way to salvage the situation for the industry, according to the body, is if banks “step in to bear the load of the additional cost of compliances“.

“Unless ATM deployers are compensated by banks for making these investments, there is likely to be a scenario where contracts are surrendered, leading to large scale closure of ATMs,” it said.

Revenues for providing ATMs as a service are not growing at all due to very low ATM interchange charges and ever-increasing costs, it said, adding that such changes in the landscape were not anticipated while signing contracts with the banks.

The WLAOs have accumulated losses and the compliance costs can result in over 15,000 machines run by them shutting down, the industry body added.

Half of India’s ATMs may close by March 2019, warns CATMi

 

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