AnantS
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i think for next 10 years focus would be on expanding the battery market. Chinese themselves have lithium reserves.
umm.. I doubt we shall see any letup in pressure on Fiscal deficit. 10 yrs, somebody else will develop tech and call shotsi think for next 10 years focus would be on expanding the battery market. Chinese themselves have lithium reserves.
Chile and Australia are among the top 5 lithium reserves, supply probably won't be a problem for now.
Pound was severely beaten. You should take that into consideration too.As ₹ has been recovering, is there any chance of GDP again pegging at $2.85 trillions which was left little changed at $2.69 trillions earlier?
If deappreciation is undone, India will surpass UK as fifth largest economy next year, if didn't India will probably slip to 7th spot again next year and will stay for 1-2 years more.
This btw is the reason why it is foolish to hoard natural resources rather than exploiting them because one can never know when new innovations can make the natural resource worthless . This also is the reason why banking on natural resources as the sole source of income will screw the economy like USSR/Russian reliance on oil prices.Falling oil prices will bring down India's import bill (of which oil is a significant chunk) and that's good news for current account deficit (the difference between the value of our imports and exports). If current price trends were to continue, India's oil import bill in 2018-19 would be much lower than Rs 8.8 lakh crore projected by the oil ministry based on an assumed crude price of $77.88 per barrel and an exchange rate of 72.22 per dollar. Lower oil price also means lower pressure on the rupee as we will need fewer dollars to buy oil. Centre will spend less on subsidising fuel and LPG prices and oil companies can cut petrol and diesel prices that had till last month been creating daily records. Local prices of petrol and diesel, factor in both international fuel rates as well as currency movements. An unlikely side effect could be easing of the government's dispute with Reserve Bank of India, which is about bringing in more money into the system. Since lower fuel prices also lower the risk of inflation, it means increased room for RBI to cut interest rate in future.
I dont understand this obscession with nominal economic numbers- be it one measured in pound or dollars.Pound was severely beaten. You should take that into consideration too.
USSR had own oil and had its fate in its hands, we are importing oil. So, till we look for alternatives, our fate remains out of our hands. Our economy will stop without oil. And despite being next to Middle East, we aren't an unchallegeable or formidable force here which can dictate those countries policies for serving our National Interests. And we can't become that without oil.This btw is the reason why it is foolish to hoard natural resources rather than exploiting them because one can never know when new innovations can make the natural resource worthless . This also is the reason why banking on natural resources as the sole source of income will screw the economy like USSR/Russian reliance on oil prices.
For international trade, you can't pay what you import in ₹ and even if ₹ becomes an IMF reserve currency in near future, $ is going to remain getting circulated more than it.I dont understand this obscession with nominal economic numbers- be it one measured in pound or dollars.
If one looks at nations which consciously moved to industrial manufacturing as a large % of their GDP, these nations have typically voluntarily devalued their currencies to make exports conducive. India will probably follow the same model. In the short term, this 65-75 fluctuation means nothing. The long term trend of the rupee is to depreciate against the USD to attract FDI and FII. The export facing sectors will definitely benefit. If they depreciate the currency by 10%, they make sure that the profits arising from exports cover for the currency's loss, if not more.As ₹ has been recovering, is there any chance of GDP again pegging at $2.85 trillions which was left little changed at $2.69 trillions earlier?
If deappreciation is undone, India will surpass UK as fifth largest economy next year, if didn't India will probably slip to 7th spot again next year and will stay for 1-2 years more.
Man, Chaddi Baniyan was an essential commodity may be 5-10% people picked it up now, but has always been there. It would come under essential commodity (if its not for you, please keep 6 ft distance from me )If one looks at nations which consciously moved to industrial manufacturing as a large % of their GDP, these nations have typically voluntarily devalued their currencies to make exports conducive. India will probably follow the same model. In the short term, this 65-75 fluctuation means nothing. The long term trend of the rupee is to depreciate against the USD to attract FDI and FII. The export facing sectors will definitely benefit. If they depreciate the currency by 10%, they make sure that the profits arising from exports cover for the currency's loss, if not more.
Rupee devaluation is not necessarily a bad thing. In 1947, 1 rupee was = 1 USD. We definitely weren't equal to the US in terms of quality of life. Today it's nearly 75, but the relative quality of life of all Indians has gone up exponentially. Currency is just a theoretical figure. It means very little in real world terms. The Kuwait Dinar is the strongest currency, even stronger than the USD. It's 236 X Indian rupee. Their HDI is 0.84 (and going down). Indian HDI is 0.64 and going up. We neither have oil nor manufacturing (yet), all of our money is hard earned from service sector tasks. Even our defense manufacturing is about refitting Russian weapons for Vietnam etc. Once the actual homegrown manufacturing and exporting begins, we will ourselves hope that the rupee becomes 90-100 to the USD. We need to outbid other emerging economies.
On a different note, someone told me that as the economy grows, Indians will wear more chaddi-banyans. So I bought Rupa underwear's stocks. The amount of loss I've faced is more than the sum I've spent on all chaddis I've bought in my life. Bhailog, chaddi pehno BC, paisa dub raha hai. Kaun idhar bina chaddi pehne baitha hai.
A sequel....How to lie using half truths :
"FII's are pouring in hundreds of crores"
This is a paragraph from ET :
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ee-finds-its-footing/articleshow/66653029.cms
What actually happened :
It's interesting to note that last month analysts were saying that the markets were falling because of oil prices and rupee depreciation and fall in Indian industrial productivity. Now the rupee has strengthened and oil prices have inched down and quarterly results have shown positive industrial growth, still the market crashed yesterday.Rupee Closes Higher Against Dollar For Sixth Day In A Row
This is the sixth straight session of gains for the domestic unit as the US dollar weakened against some currencies overseas.
There is no magic wand. Battery has main problem that energy needs to be stored there and there is about 25% loss in storage and usage. In addition, we will need the same amount of energy to be generated to be stored in battery. Also, batteries have average life of 1000 cycles after which it has to be discarded. So, every 3 years the battery will have to be changed. This will be a massive resource drain. Also, there is simply no substitute for plastics and petrochemicals.i think for next 10 years focus would be on expanding the battery market. Chinese themselves have lithium reserves.
Chile and Australia are among the top 5 lithium reserves, supply probably won't be a problem for now.
Again it is wrong to over exploit. When a country runs out of resource, it will collapse like in case of Syria. Till now, it has been only about 80-90 years since oil production rose to significant levels. Just wait to see what happens when oil runs out. Coal extraction started since industrial revolution in 1700s and is still in use. No natural resource can be said to be useless. Running economy as a ponzi scheme by taking out millions of years of accumulated resource is nothing but an attempt to ruin future generations.This btw is the reason why it is foolish to hoard natural resources rather than exploiting them because one can never know when new innovations can make the natural resource worthless . This also is the reason why banking on natural resources as the sole source of income will screw the economy like USSR/Russian reliance on oil prices.
This is the reason why Commie thugs who want to "protect" the iron/ coal from being "exploited" are just morons who dont understand economics and are actually harming the local economy from utilising its unique resources for development
Again, I have told you several times that India has 20 crore muslims which it can expel into middle east. In addition, India can destroy Pakistan and send another 20 crore refugees. India offers "tolerance", "food" and "space" to muslims without which Middle east will collapse. If India has to do favour, it has to be returned with favours. So, India is a formidable force which can dictate Muslim oil supply to Indian interest.USSR had own oil and had its fate in its hands, we are importing oil. So, till we look for alternatives, our fate remains out of our hands. Our economy will stop without oil. And despite being next to Middle East, we aren't an unchallengeable or formidable force here which can dictate those countries policies for serving our National Interests. And we can't become that without oil.
That's the problem altogether. Unchalleged ruler of Indian Ocean will be the real energy superpower of the world, not KSA.
India is one of the largest manufacturer of automobiles, steel, medicine and few other products. Indian defence manufcaturing is also significant with manufacturing of almost all types of equipment in India either developed in India or by ToT. Just because India did not keep up with electronics manufacturing does not mean that India has no manufacturing. Electronics have acquired premium rates and are sold in large numbers nowadays because of which there appears to be a big gap in Indian manufacturing. But at the end of the day, the only real gap is only in electronics manufacturing.Rupee devaluation is not necessarily a bad thing. In 1947, 1 rupee was = 1 USD. We definitely weren't equal to the US in terms of quality of life. Today it's nearly 75, but the relative quality of life of all Indians has gone up exponentially. Currency is just a theoretical figure. It means very little in real world terms. The Kuwait Dinar is the strongest currency, even stronger than the USD. It's 236 X Indian rupee. Their HDI is 0.84 (and going down). Indian HDI is 0.64 and going up. We neither have oil nor manufacturing (yet), all of our money is hard earned from service sector tasks. Even our defense manufacturing is about refitting Russian weapons for Vietnam etc. Once the actual homegrown manufacturing and exporting begins, we will ourselves hope that the rupee becomes 90-100 to the USD. We need to outbid other emerging economies.
Again, I have told you several times that India has 20 crore muslims which it can expel into middle east. In addition, India can destroy Pakistan and send another 20 crore refugees. India offers "tolerance", "food" and "space" to muslims without which Middle east will collapse.
You are ignoring one fundamental fact - Food is more important than petroleum. Just like Muslims have oil to offer, India has food to offer to muslims. Unless Muslims can find another country which will give them what India is giving - space, food and tolerance to 20 crore muslims, India will have a big say in muslim affairs
India is one of the largest manufacturer of automobiles, steel, medicine and few other products. Indian defence manufcaturing is also significant with manufacturing of almost all types of equipment in India either developed in India or by ToT. Just because India did not keep up with electronics manufacturing does not mean that India has no manufacturing. Electronics have acquired premium rates and are sold in large numbers nowadays because of which there appears to be a big gap in Indian manufacturing. But at the end of the day, the only real gap is only in electronics manufacturing.