Indian Economy: News and Discussion

FalconSlayers

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Better than expected quarter. Also there are some green shoots seen in crucial sectors like automobiles and construction. Overall, i say light at end of tunnel. Everything now depends on how the oxford vaccine is rolled out across the country and calms the panic among the workforce. Our wagon should soon be back on rails.
I want a 10 Trillion dollar economy by 2030 and Corona should end by 2021 to make that possible.
 

AZTEC

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ALL of the big respected ratings agencies (like Fitch, Moody's, S&P) have supported the recent reforms passed by the parliament including agriculture/farm bills and labour laws.

This unambiguously proves that the left-wing's opposition to these reforms is untenable and, simply put, nonsensical.


I am saying this because I just figuratively vomited twice after seeing Dhruv Rathee's video on farm bills.
The amount of biased BS that's on the internet just makes me feel bad.
And many people are just hopelessly biased.
 

HariPrasad-1

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Is 5 trillion even possible by 2025?

We will suffering contraction in the second quarter and possibly the third too.

I feel like 2027-28 is a more appropriate timeline for 5 trillion considering how much we have suffered and are suffering even now.

I have written extensively how we can make it. This will require 12.06% growth rate which is very much achievable. What we need is just 2 to 3% of appreciation in INR. Rest will come from Growth. In my article , I had stressed on how to make India a trade surplus economy so that INR appreciate.
 

LondonParisTokyo

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I still think there's too many regulatory hurdles to start a business in India. IMO the government should quickly clear a relaxed LAB law and just start building on where all these protestors are protesting. Once they lose their ghar, what do they have? Lol. They will see their neighbors benefiting from their nautanki and will quickly fall in line. And it will also expose that the only way they are being sustained is through foreign money and also opposition support. But this needs to be done expeditiously.

edit: And this will also take tremendous political will to get done quickly. But it takes .5s of thought. You are a protestor. You are protesting over some nonsense. Suddenly the government seizes your land so that it can be sold to somebody that wants to start a business. You start crying, this and that, protesting more. Time for land seizure comes, your neighbors, who didn't protest, are hired to demolish your house. THen they are hired to build a factory or a warehouse or something. Then they work at the warehouse. Now you, who were maybe somewhat well off, have nothing, but your servant has a job and a house. You will very, very quickly fall in line.
 

FalconSlayers

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RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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I have written extensively how we can make it. This will require 12.06% growth rate which is very much achievable. What we need is just 2 to 3% of appreciation in INR. Rest will come from Growth. In my article , I had stressed on how to make India a trade surplus economy so that INR appreciate.
Appreciation in INR will affect exports. Notice how RBI is buying up dollars and our reserves are increasing at break neck pace - the reason is to not let the rupee appreciate and trade it in the 73-75 band. I still dont think nominal GDP is a useful figure. People with $40-50000 salaries are struggling in the US to make ends meet. It is really the PPP GDP that needs to be looked at. What we really need to be focused on is meeting the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Here's NITI Aayog's measurement of our SDG progress state by state:

See map below - by SDG agreements, all of India has to turn blue by 2030. unfortunately no state is 'blue' even in 2020. But one progress path we can set is: All yellows need to turn to 'green' by 2025. All greens turn to blue by 2030. So, at least some parts of the country are 'blue'.
Whatever GDP is needed to achieve the above path is the GDP we need. Dollar numbers like $5 trillion or $10 trillion make little sense for us.

India_SDG.png
 

FalconSlayers

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Appreciation in INR will affect exports. Notice how RBI is buying up dollars and our reserves are increasing at break neck pace - the reason is to not let the rupee appreciate and trade it in the 73-75 band. I still dont think nominal GDP is a useful figure. People with $40-50000 salaries are struggling in the US to make ends meet. It is really the PPP GDP that needs to be looked at. What we really need to be focused on is meeting the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Here's NITI Aayog's measurement of our SDG progress state by state:

See map below - by SDG agreements, all of India has to turn blue by 2030. unfortunately no state is 'blue' even in 2020. But one progress path we can set is: All yellows need to turn to 'green' by 2025. All greens turn to blue by 2030. So, at least some parts of the country are 'blue'.
Whatever GDP is needed to achieve the above path is the GDP we need. Dollar numbers like $5 trillion or $10 trillion make little sense for us.

View attachment 68114
But world sees Nominal GDP only. India will become 15 Trillion Dollar PPP GDP by 2024.
 

HariPrasad-1

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Appreciation in INR will affect exports. Notice how RBI is buying up dollars and our reserves are increasing at break neck pace - the reason is to not let the rupee appreciate and trade it in the 73-75 band. I still dont think nominal GDP is a useful figure. People with $40-50000 salaries are struggling in the US to make ends meet. It is really the PPP GDP that needs to be looked at. What we really need to be focused on is meeting the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Here's NITI Aayog's measurement of our SDG progress state by state:

See map below - by SDG agreements, all of India has to turn blue by 2030. unfortunately no state is 'blue' even in 2020. But one progress path we can set is: All yellows need to turn to 'green' by 2025. All greens turn to blue by 2030. So, at least some parts of the country are 'blue'.
Whatever GDP is needed to achieve the above path is the GDP we need. Dollar numbers like $5 trillion or $10 trillion make little sense for us.

View attachment 68114
I agree with you so fast as opp measure of economomy is concern.
 

Indrajit

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Micromax is the one that opened the market for the Chinese by getting cheap Chinese phones into India. All the Chinese then had to do was to cut out the middleman. Game over. Now trying the new atmanirbhar stunt. No conviction. I don’t mind the lack of conviction but I’m not surprised that they are having issues. Quality control was not their forte.
 

FalconSlayers

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Micromax is the one that opened the market for the Chinese by getting cheap Chinese phones into India. All the Chinese then had to do was to cut out the middleman. Game over. Now trying the new atmanirbhar stunt. No conviction. I don’t mind the lack of conviction but I’m not surprised that they are having issues. Quality control was not their forte.
They were just rebranding phones made in China, first time they are making them in India.
 

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