Indian Economy: News and Discussion

omaebakabaka

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Savings have shifted from traditional instruments like Fixed Deposits to SIP, Mutual Funds, Term Insurance products etc. Market linked investments are riskier than fixed deposits but then, people believe the India growth story. About 16-17k crores are flowing into SIP every month. Markets are flush with cash and valuations are at crazy levels.

People are spending more and willing to take credit. Whether they are spending on consumer durables or on kids higher education and financing it with student loans, it will generate a cash outflow and reduced savings in the bank account.
Absolute bs way to generate wealth qualitatively.....law of avgs say most middle income will lose than win over time. Story is too premature to generate the level of valuations without name brands nor strong exports to the level of top 5 market leaders. Like only show in the town in USA is market even with $ as reserve. GOI should tax the stock returns more heavily proportionately vs stable income coming from non speculated returns like income and so on. Economics of common sense is kicked into trash now everywhere....Xi is correct to kill the bubbles in some ways like Evergrande even if there is some control aspect to it.

Percapita of 3k but valuations kicking into high gear not to mention all chitfunds and bs credit markets everywhere.....
 
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another_armchair

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Absolute bs way to generate wealth qualitatively.....law of avgs say most middle income will lose than win over time. Story is too premature to generate the level of valuations without name brands nor strong exports to the level of top 5 market leaders. Like only show in the town in USA is market even with $ as reserve. GOI should tax the stock returns more heavily proportionately vs stable income coming from non speculated returns like income and so on. Economics of common sense is kicked into trash now everywhere....Xi is correct to kill the bubbles in some ways like Evergrande even if there is some control aspect to it.
STCG and LTCG are already quite high. How much more should the Govt. tax investments? They tax fixed deposit interest income too.

Mango man in India is still on a post covid gold rush high and thinks 18% returns are the new normal.

Why compare a developing BRICS market to the developed world? Our market operators function like a cartel and our stock prices are overleveraged but then who cares.

Xi was happy till Evergandu kept attracting suckers into his bonds as long as it was $$$ denominated. Xi is no less a parasite than the average kike on a trading desk at wall st.
 

another_armchair

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Absolute bs way to generate wealth qualitatively.....law of avgs say most middle income will lose than win over time. Story is too premature to generate the level of valuations without name brands nor strong exports to the level of top 5 market leaders. Like only show in the town in USA is market even with $ as reserve. GOI should tax the stock returns more heavily proportionately vs stable income coming from non speculated returns like income and so on. Economics of common sense is kicked into trash now everywhere....Xi is correct to kill the bubbles in some ways like Evergrande even if there is some control aspect to it.

Xi hates bubbles. True. No wait...


 

omaebakabaka

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STCG and LTCG are already quite high. How much more should the Govt. tax investments? They tax fixed deposit interest income too.

Mango man in India is still on a post covid gold rush high and thinks 18% returns are the new normal.

Why compare a developing BRICS market to the developed world? Our market operators function like a cartel and our stock prices are overleveraged but then who cares.

Xi was happy till Evergandu kept attracting suckers into his bonds as long as it was $$$ denominated. Xi is no less a parasite than the average kike on a trading desk at wall st.
Whatever XI's intentions are, we know the system is unitary there but its also important to make sure mogul's and markets are oritented to respect sacred lines in the interest of country and yet pursue growth vs worshipping global gangs and go for power games with their valuations and lobbyism. Positive lessons can come out of negative systems and unintentional deeds. Bubbles are always government failures to anticipate and do the hard thing.

Stock returns must be taxed at high vs most other incomes as it is a pyramid and more so with FDI and retirement funds infusion.....lessons to be learned by looking to US and other countries, we don't have to follow same style. Developed gang exports their inflation to world, we can't atleast yet.

Most old timer's agree its same as casino gambling now and generally nothing to do with book value. This is a systemic induced faults with gov machinery unable to frame the process and rules around it in digital age. Can learn from observing more established US markets and its pitfalls
 

another_armchair

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Cry, bitches. For how long will Indian IT leech of value developed and owned by foreign entities?

Need full control of the playground? Learn to own it - build or buy.
 

angryIndian

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Its not for me personally. I am curious about what the possibilities are with a large and low wage population apart from the mainstream IT and low end manufacturing. There has to be something more that can be done with a fairly educated workforce willing to work for 400 dollars a month, with mass internet penetration.

Right now they're just going into youtube and Tiktok using the internet, apart from their regular jobs.
In the current scenario, all I can see is that self-employment is the best option as the situation of the formal Job market is not good.
 

Kumata

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"According to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country's household financial savings rate hit a 47-year low of 5.1% of gross domestic product in the fiscal year that ended in March."

Fy20-21 11%
Fy21-22 7.2%
Fy22-23 5.1%

@ezsasa said

- you will say some random presumption, almost always on the down side

I always keep my ears / eyes to the ground than relying on so called authenticated source . Fact is there is number / stats management from kaka & co. While everybody likes to talk of high numbers, they failed to realize that in a sample size of 100, 10 are making most contri to those stats . So do that means all is well for all 100... No .. in reality's it is good for 10 but remaining 90 are just there as stats...Inflation is being managed by removing commodities from inflation index ..if it is in limits why RBI is still keeping high interest rates...

If we are on such high growth trajectory, why RBI is worried about asset stress in NBFC ;s and not so quality credit with these NBFC .. why people are being pushed into the narrative of "Buy now Pay later", infact if we have so high growth people should not need credit at all..... OTOH, RBI shud be happy that People are buying more, our growth is beating Best in the world.. let the flood gates be open .. we are exporting to china now... and even paying PLI's also to corporates who are basically importing kits from china , assembling here & getting huge tax payers funded incentives from GOI while tax payers are struggling to meet their daily chores, We are building high ways which are empty due to high tolls being charged to the extend of making them ghost highways..

YES< we are growth Highway... a Bubble is created already.. stock market valuations do not reflect the reality on ground unfortunately, it;s being driven by FII 's which explains the huge swings when it goes down and UP..


On top, we have best FM in the world and Best governor of the central bank...in this world :lehappy::hehe::hehe:
 

Kumata

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STCG and LTCG are already quite high. How much more should the Govt. tax investments? They tax fixed deposit interest income too.

Mango man in India is still on a post covid gold rush high and thinks 18% returns are the new normal.
Gravvy train should stop anytime soon...As for taxes goes.. there is nothing that do not get taxed.. their eyes are set on two places which hold most savings -

A) LIC policies - this is broken already so u get 6% returns
B) EPFO - There are subtle attempts ( 2.5 lakh limit Being a example) to tap into Our EPFO savings and tax them. It is goldmine for those in power. Let us see till how far it's safe...
C) They r promoting NPS as all goes into Money markets and suddenly a intelligent babu realize that with dwindling savings.. they do not want old people living on road...

many more... If you calculate End to end our taxes will be equivalent or surpass even developed world...with u and me being on our own .. while these clowns will enjoy power and planes at our expense..
 

nongaddarliberal

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to go global, it's not "lack of enthusiasm" it's realism, to sell manufacturing products(consumer) globally Indian companies have to compete with countries who have free trade agreements(zero duty imports). in some export categories, prices are competitive even with out FTA but most categories are not.

even if something is manufactured at same cost here with let's say china, the zero import duty becomes a profit for chini companies which Indian companies cannot avail without FTA.

service exports do not go thru ports, so no import tariffs. the usual direct and indirect tax at both ends.
I'm talking about services apart from IT which can catch on with the global market, not manufacturing, which I mentioned can be left to the billionaires. For example, OYO has penetrated into many other Asian markets quite well after taking off in India. If we're talking about cultural and services exports, ideas like making a starbucks type franchise but for authentic Indian masala chai come to mind, which can take off globally. If an Uber from the US can take off in India, then something innovative in software or franchises can take off from India to the US. Again, this is only meant to serve as a discussion about what other services apart from IT outsourcing are possible in the context of expanding outside India.
 
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FalconSlayers

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GDP growth could be around 8.2% this year.
SBI predicts GDP growth next year (FY2024-25) to touch 8%
 

another_armchair

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FalconSlayers

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There is divergence between PMI and IIP.

I know our data collection mechanism isn't flawless but PMI ranging over 60 and IIP below 4 suggests manufacturing peaked in Q3 and power, mining alone are keeping it above 2.
Problem is data collection of govt is shitty due to usage of old base, they're still calculating production of items they identified 13 years ago in 2024.

Sanjeev has mentioned it here.
 

another_armchair

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Gravvy train should stop anytime soon...As for taxes goes.. there is nothing that do not get taxed.. their eyes are set on two places which hold most savings -

A) LIC policies - this is broken already so u get 6% returns
B) EPFO - There are subtle attempts ( 2.5 lakh limit Being a example) to tap into Our EPFO savings and tax them. It is goldmine for those in power. Let us see till how far it's safe...
C) They r promoting NPS as all goes into Money markets and suddenly a intelligent babu realize that with dwindling savings.. they do not want old people living on road...

many more... If you calculate End to end our taxes will be equivalent or surpass even developed world...with u and me being on our own .. while these clowns will enjoy power and planes at our expense..
5 times leverage on delivery being provided by brokers.

If you have one lakh in your DMAT account, you can buy shares worth 5 lakhs provided you are willing to pay Rs. ~9,800 per lakh as 'charges', not even being bandied as interest per year. Some brokers provide 10 times the leverage Who wouldn't 'invest'?

Talk about creating a bubble except that this one is bigger than Harshad's time. Same playbook in the US too. In US, you can at least short shares. You can't short shares in India but you can buy 5 times worth your DMAT balance that too for delivery, not some intraday trade. It doesn't end with this. You can pledge the shares in your DMAT account and trade in futures & options - hint - write put options.

Wonder how this is going to end.

My uncle retired from Govt. service. When markets corrected during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he kept pestering me to suggest something. I told him to shut up and sit quietly but he went ahead and put a ton of cash in a couple of open ended mutual fund schemes and made around 26% by the end of 2022. He called me a chutiya and said I don't know anything.. LMAO. All these post covid greenhorn market experts need to see a 2008 like market meltdown to bring them back to their senses.
 

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