Indian Economy: News and Discussion

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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Called it a month ago.

These idiots are making billion-dollar unicorns out of pre-existing products and are claiming that they built it out of scratch. Such a letdown.
Whatever. As long as someone is ready to value them and put money in, it is all well. Entire Amazon Web Services cloud service is based off open source SW. It is not the tech itself but how the tech is used by business and consumers that gives it value.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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Less than 5% of Indians are now expected to be below the poverty line, and extreme destitution has almost gone away, a top government official asserted on February 25, citing the findings of the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) for 2022-23 The urban-rural consumption divide has narrowed to 71% in 2022-23 from a peak of 91% in 2004-05, so inequality is declining, he said, even as rural households’ spending on food has dropped below 50% of their total expenditure for the first time ever. “Poverty lines and estimates are derived from this. We have had four, five different informal estimates for poverty in the absence of the 2017-18 Survey findings. If we go by ₹32 a day, which was the last accepted poverty line as of 2011-12, and factor in inflation trends since then to double that level to about ₹60 a day, then you will see that poverty is less than 10%, as ₹1,782 is the average spending by those in the bottom 5% to 10% fractile class in rural India,” he said
This is based on the lowest of low poverty lines. We have to look at the middle income poverty level of $5 a day or equivalent MPI - not the absolute lowest levels.
Many fundamental services such as low income housing in urban areas, infrastructure capacity to accommodate growing middle class and rural to urban migration etc are not being done at the scale it should be. Also, promotion of entrepreneurship to build and sell products all over the world is just starting up and needs to quicken its pace.
 

HariPrasad-1

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Cheap Manufacturing was a vital GDP component, which was missing in our GDP. You can not be a big economy without electronic parts being manufactured in your country. Cheap Manufacturing and aircraft manufacturing are 2 most vital components which are missing from our manufacturing. If we are able to at least fulfil our won requirement from our own manufacturing, we can can grow much faster than what we are growing at present. We should put upto 100 seater aircraft in negative list from 7 years onwards from now. Government should heavily incentivize these industries and made make in India temptation irresistible. We are now on the track in automobiles including 2 wheelers, cars , passenger vehicles and goods vehicles. We should indigenize bulk drugs which we import from China. EV and solar power should be the area of prime focus. Agriculture and Textiles should be focused from the point of view of employment. We should have a vision of being big exporter of organics food products. There should be a big effort for water conservation and plantation. We import multi billion timber inspite of having big Agriculture because of faulty policies of government which discourages the farming of Timber trees such as teakwood. Still we have a lot to put in place.
 

Jagattunga Govinda III

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Whatever. As long as someone is ready to value them and put money in, it is all well. Entire Amazon Web Services cloud service is based off open source SW. It is not the tech itself but how the tech is used by business and consumers that gives it value.
I disagree. Just because VCs are willing to put money for a hyped-up product is hardly a sign that it will sustain. There have been plenty of companies which attracted a shit tonne of money a few years ago but you seldom hear about them now. Even as recently as in 2019-2020, you had Byju's attracting $20+ billion but as of now, they are going bust. Ultimately, what matters is if the business is capable of making a profit. Accept the fact that VCs are tending to investing on Indian startups quite recklessly only because our economy is growing rapidly with a progressively increasing Indian middle class. They only want to make a quick buck out of India's rise. The fact that someone is putting money into the startup doesn't necessarily mean the startup is structurally sound.

Coming to Krutrim AI itself, the issue isn't that they managed to create an AI platform based on OpenAI's product, it's that they've done this despite flatly claiming they've built it out of scratch in a matter of 3 months, which is fishy considering it took OpenAI's GPT-4, 6 months to become live despite already having GPT-3 and GPT-3.5 as a base. Musk's Grok took 4 months to become live and the latter is clearly an inferior service compared to even GPT-3. Even other Indian AI services like Corover AI, Sarvam AI, and Kissan AI which were all openly admit to have been based on GPT- took longer to build. Yet, the Krutrim guys somehow built an LLM out of scratch in 3 months and claim that it is better than GPT-4 as far as Indic languages are concerned?

The only proof Bhavish Aggarwal has for this is the below image where mind you, he hasn't elaborated on what the numbers on the Y-axis are supposed to indicate as well as deliberately using very light color to represent GPT-4's values in the presentation when Krutrim was launched a month ago.
Krutrim AI.png


There is a very serious question about the possibility that they claimed something to attract investments from VCs but did something else to actually create the product. If it is proven to be the case, this thing is hardly worth a billion-dollar valuation and could be a case of fraud.
 

HariPrasad-1

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Cheap Manufacturing was a vital GDP component, which was missing in our GDP. You can not be a big economy without electronic parts being manufactured in your country. Cheap Manufacturing and aircraft manufacturing are 2 most vital components which are missing from our manufacturing. If we are able to at least fulfil our won requirement from our own manufacturing, we can can grow much faster than what we are growing at present. We should put upto 100 seater aircraft in negative list from 7 years onwards from now. Government should heavily incentivize these industries and made make in India temptation irresistible. We are now on the track in automobiles including 2 wheelers, cars , passenger vehicles and goods vehicles. We should indigenize bulk drugs which we import from China. EV and solar power should be the area of prime focus. Agriculture and Textiles should be focused from the point of view of employment. We should have a vision of being big exporter of organics food products. There should be a big effort for water conservation and plantation. We import multi billion timber inspite of having big Agriculture because of faulty policies of government which discourages the farming of Timber trees such as teakwood. Still we have a lot to put in place.

Please read Chip in place of Cheap.
 

ezsasa

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I disagree. Just because VCs are willing to put money for a hyped-up product is hardly a sign that it will sustain. There have been plenty of companies which attracted a shit tonne of money a few years ago but you seldom hear about them now. Even as recently as in 2019-2020, you had Byju's attracting $20+ billion but as of now, they are going bust. Ultimately, what matters is if the business is capable of making a profit. Accept the fact that VCs are tending to investing on Indian startups quite recklessly only because our economy is growing rapidly with a progressively increasing Indian middle class. They only want to make a quick buck out of India's rise. The fact that someone is putting money into the startup doesn't necessarily mean the startup is structurally sound.

Coming to Krutrim AI itself, the issue isn't that they managed to create an AI platform based on OpenAI's product, it's that they've done this despite flatly claiming they've built it out of scratch in a matter of 3 months, which is fishy considering it took OpenAI's GPT-4, 6 months to become live despite already having GPT-3 and GPT-3.5 as a base. Musk's Grok took 4 months to become live and the latter is clearly an inferior service compared to even GPT-3. Even other Indian AI services like Corover AI, Sarvam AI, and Kissan AI which were all openly admit to have been based on GPT- took longer to build. Yet, the Krutrim guys somehow built an LLM out of scratch in 3 months and claim that it is better than GPT-4 as far as Indic languages are concerned?

The only proof Bhavish Aggarwal has for this is the below image where mind you, he hasn't elaborated on what the numbers on the Y-axis are supposed to indicate as well as deliberately using very light color to represent GPT-4's values in the presentation when Krutrim was launched a month ago.
View attachment 242029

There is a very serious question about the possibility that they claimed something to attract investments from VCs but did something else to actually create the product. If it is proven to be the case, this thing is hardly worth a billion-dollar valuation and could be a case of fraud.
this opinion is a legit ask for those who want to see organic growth that depends on the traditional value add, sales and profits, but for a few decades after fed started going brrrr on their printing machines, valuation game is also legit business strategy. if this krutrim ai is addressing the $ valuation game, some of us may not like it, but does it make it a bad strategy in it's entirety ?

this ties into U.S economy exporting their inflation, which has been discussed multiple times here.
 

Crazywithmath

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The possible scenario is India's high-end industries were destroyed by Western suppliers,
Citation needed. What is 'high-end'? How do you define it? Are India's petro products 'high-end' enough? Steel? Electronics? Automobiles (2W+4W)? Pharmaceuticals? Vaccines? Does services count? What about softwares? GCCs?

Where are the pieces of evidence that the above mentioned product categories suffered due to abundance of 'Western suppliers'?

Just to be clear, I happen to have the respective y-o-y production growth figures (past 5 years or more). Be mindful of responding with some voodoo.

while India's low end industries can't win the battle in Western market against Bangladesh, Vietnam, South Eastern Asia, which are supported by Chinese.
LOL! LOL! LOL!

RMGs are the only BDeshi product which is globally competitive (courtesy of their LDC privileges; set to expire in 2026) and they source their cotton and cotton yarn from India. If so-called chinese assistance were enough their economic complexity would not have declined over the past decade. And we have been witnessing Vietnam's performance over the past few years.

"Chinese support"; my ass! Let VN get back to 7%+ real growth first, then we will talk!

Your CCP overlords were just happy to have some rerouting hubs (to bypass trade barriers) - that's about it. But these days, even that is not smooth sailing because;

  1. Western economies keep getting rekt.
  2. FDIs have dried out; even in CCPland.
  3. They have gotten better at filtering rerouted products.
 

Jagattunga Govinda III

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this opinion is a legit ask for those who want to see organic growth that depends on the traditional value add, sales and profits, but for a few decades after fed started going brrrr on their printing machines, valuation game is also legit business strategy. if this krutrim ai is addressing the $ valuation game, some of us may not like it, but does it make it a bad strategy in it's entirety ?

this ties into U.S economy exporting their inflation, which has been discussed multiple times here.
Playing the valuation game will never be a sustainable strategy. The VCs/other financiers aren't giving money out of goodwill, they give it with the expectation of receiving returns that are higher than the money they invested in the first place, that is, in simple terms, they too are looking to make a profit. They expect these returns to be given to them within a mutually agreed time period unless something unusual happens like the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-21. If a company keeps living off of investor money while not making any profits, they'll soon find themselves borrowing from different sources to repay agreed-upon returns/other debt. That is to say, it will end up becoming a Ponzi scheme in all but name as we've seen with Byju's. Play a valuation game only if you plan on ultimately having to default your company and stashing the personal wealth you made from said company in some hedge fund abroad while you sail off into the distance.

You made a valid point regarding the reckless currency printing by the US Feds but this is exactly why I feel we have to be extra cautious within this time since banks/VCs/other institutions will be extremely aggressive in their lending and it could lead to a NPA crisis.
 

ezsasa

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Playing the valuation game will never be a sustainable strategy. The VCs/other financiers aren't giving money out of goodwill, they give it with the expectation of receiving returns that are higher than the money they invested in the first place, that is, in simple terms, they too are looking to make a profit. They expect these returns to be given to them within a mutually agreed time period unless something unusual happens like the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-21. If a company keeps living off of investor money while not making any profits, they'll soon find themselves borrowing from different sources to repay agreed-upon returns/other debt. That is to say, it will end up becoming a Ponzi scheme in all but name as we've seen with Byju's. Play a valuation game only if you plan on ultimately having to default your company and stashing the personal wealth you made from said company in some hedge fund abroad while you sail off into the distance.

You made a valid point regarding the reckless currency printing by the US Feds but this is exactly why I feel we have to be extra cautious within this time since banks/VCs/other institutions will be extremely aggressive in their lending and it could lead to a NPA crisis.
on the VC/valuation game, if common public investment money is getting swindled only then govt will intervene. if common public money is not at risk, govt will not intervene.

i'd say let the cycle play out, if and when U.S economy tightens it's money supply, this industry will roll back automatically. meanwhile cash and $ is circulating within Indian economy because of this type of investment is not a bad outcome.

when amway and modicare type ponzi schemes started in early 2000's, i too didn't like them. i went to one amway session, knew it was a ponzi scheme, but one of my friends bought into it. it took some time for law to catch up to them. it happens.
 
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RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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I disagree. Just because VCs are willing to put money for a hyped-up product is hardly a sign that it will sustain. There have been plenty of companies which attracted a shit tonne of money a few years ago but you seldom hear about them now. Even as recently as in 2019-2020, you had Byju's attracting $20+ billion but as of now, they are going bust. Ultimately, what matters is if the business is capable of making a profit. Accept the fact that VCs are tending to investing on Indian startups quite recklessly only because our economy is growing rapidly with a progressively increasing Indian middle class. They only want to make a quick buck out of India's rise. The fact that someone is putting money into the startup doesn't necessarily mean the startup is structurally sound.

Coming to Krutrim AI itself, the issue isn't that they managed to create an AI platform based on OpenAI's product, it's that they've done this despite flatly claiming they've built it out of scratch in a matter of 3 months, which is fishy considering it took OpenAI's GPT-4, 6 months to become live despite already having GPT-3 and GPT-3.5 as a base. Musk's Grok took 4 months to become live and the latter is clearly an inferior service compared to even GPT-3. Even other Indian AI services like Corover AI, Sarvam AI, and Kissan AI which were all openly admit to have been based on GPT- took longer to build. Yet, the Krutrim guys somehow built an LLM out of scratch in 3 months and claim that it is better than GPT-4 as far as Indic languages are concerned?

The only proof Bhavish Aggarwal has for this is the below image where mind you, he hasn't elaborated on what the numbers on the Y-axis are supposed to indicate as well as deliberately using very light color to represent GPT-4's values in the presentation when Krutrim was launched a month ago.
View attachment 242029

There is a very serious question about the possibility that they claimed something to attract investments from VCs but did something else to actually create the product. If it is proven to be the case, this thing is hardly worth a billion-dollar valuation and could be a case of fraud.
VC money = very high risk money. VCs know all this. That only a few companies scale well. And these are not the best-tech companies but companies that know how to monetize tech. VCs invested in Byju’s because of its ability to monetize using a low cost tech platform and nothing to do with how good or evil the tech was. Hype is the same thing as advertising to grow business. Of course if you don’t deliver, the company goes bust. But it is such high risk businesses that VCs invest in.
Now coming to AI - the entire AI tech is going through a hype cycle mostly only in the US and Northern Europe. The rest of the world has no clue. And even in the US, AI currently is not delivering much business value. So, Bhavish hyping AI more to get some extra investment money is what American CEOs are doing too. Several AI hyped driverless car tech companies have gone bust in the US with VCs losing shit ton of money.
 
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Jagattunga Govinda III

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on the VC/valuation game, if common public investment money is getting swindled only then govt will intervene. if common public money is not at risk, govt will not intervene.

i'd say let the cycle play out, if and when U.S economy tightens it's money supply, this industry will roll back automatically. meanwhile cash and $ is circulating within Indian economy because of this type of investment is not a bad outcome.

when amway and modicare type ponzi schemes started in early 2000's, i too didn't like them. i went to one amway session, knew it was a ponzi scheme, but one of my friends bought into it. it took some time for law to catch up to them. it happens.
Sure does. Just pointing out the fact that one way or the other, playing the valuation game is not a way to sustain a business.

VC money = very high risk money. VCs know all this. That only a few companies scale well. And these are not the best-tech companies but companies that know how to monetize tech. VCs invested in Byju’s because of its ability to monetize using a low cost tech platform and nothing to do with how good or evil the tech was. Hype is the same thing as advertising to grow business. Of course if you don’t deliver, the company goes bust. But it is such high risk businesses that VCs invest in.
Now coming to AI - the entire AI tech is going through a hype cycle mostly only in the US and Northern Europe. The rest of the world has no clue. And even in the US, AI currently is not delivering much business value. So, Bhavish hyping AI more to get some extra investment money is what American CEOs are doing too. Several AI hyped driverless car tech companies have gone bust in the US with VCs losing shit ton of money.
I mean, if the allegations of being a ChatGPT clone is proven true, it could turn out to be a case of fraud. Mr. Aggarwal boasted specifically that Krutrim was built from scratch and not some ripoff. If he conveyed the same to the VCs to attract investment, he could always be sued. Most AI startups get investments to the order of a few double-digit millions. Krutrim has attracted a valuation of about or more than a billion dollars as per news reports. Either he has ripped off a big fish or has ripped off a school of smaller fish.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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Sure does. Just pointing out the fact that one way or the other, playing the valuation game is not a way to sustain a business.


I mean, if the allegations of being a ChatGPT clone is proven true, it could turn out to be a case of fraud. Mr. Aggarwal boasted specifically that Krutrim was built from scratch and not some ripoff. If he conveyed the same to the VCs to attract investment, he could always be sued. Most AI startups get investments to the order of a few double-digit millions. Krutrim has attracted a valuation of about or more than a billion dollars as per news reports. Either he has ripped off a big fish or has ripped off a school of smaller fish.
It is not fraud. GPT is open source - so there is no fraud. As far as claims are concerned, saying something is better than something else is not fraud. They my be misleading but it is up to the people to be aware of it.
 

Jagattunga Govinda III

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It is not fraud. GPT is open source - so there is no fraud. As far as claims are concerned, saying something is better than something else is not fraud. They my be misleading but it is up to the people to be aware of it.
GPT is not open source. Besides, even if it was, it doesn't in any way concern what I'm saying. It just depends on what exactly he explained to the VCs. What I'm saying is nothing more than speculation. If he said the same thing to them what he told the public, he could be in trouble. If he didn't, that's that. Best to just wait and watch.
 

mokoman

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Playing the valuation game will never be a sustainable strategy. The VCs/other financiers aren't giving money out of goodwill, they give it with the expectation of receiving returns that are higher than the money they invested in the first place, that is, in simple terms, they too are looking to make a profit. They expect these returns to be given to them within a mutually agreed time period unless something unusual happens like the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-21. If a company keeps living off of investor money while not making any profits, they'll soon find themselves borrowing from different sources to repay agreed-upon returns/other debt. That is to say, it will end up becoming a Ponzi scheme in all but name as we've seen with Byju's. Play a valuation game only if you plan on ultimately having to default your company and stashing the personal wealth you made from said company in some hedge fund abroad while you sail off into the distance.

You made a valid point regarding the reckless currency printing by the US Feds but this is exactly why I feel we have to be extra cautious within this time since banks/VCs/other institutions will be extremely aggressive in their lending and it could lead to a NPA crisis.
people are claiming its because they trained the model on GPT output . seems like thats best case .

😅 i dont think even that ola guy has the aukut it pass a chatgpt wrapper as a indian ai , probably used one of the open source models and trained it or something .

even dilbert knew of indian VCs 2 decades ago , i think their approach is shot gun , invest in 50 , atleast 1 would turn profitable , or they go IPO route , get public money and exit



6a00e5509ea6a18834019aff186cb5970c-800w2i.png_stripped.png

 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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It is not fraud. GPT is open source - so there is no fraud. As far as claims are concerned, saying something is better than something else is not fraud. They my be misleading but it is up to the people to be aware of it.
No…GPT is open source, core Transformer model. ChatGPT is a wrapper around GPT and trained. Everything explained on YT. Overall there is no fraud. Fraud needs contract and some legal promises. This is just Bhavish hyping things up for his company. Maybe mislead or outright lying to the janata but no fraud.
 

angryIndian

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No…GPT is open source, core Transformer model. ChatGPT is a wrapper around GPT and trained. Everything explained on YT. Overall there is no fraud. Fraud needs contract and some legal promises. This is just Bhavish hyping things up for his company. Maybe mislead or outright lying to the janata but no fraud.
Liar liar pants on fire......Do we have even a single honest start up in India?

1709091338214.png
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