Indian Economy: News and Discussion

Kumata

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IMO,

Govt need to control adani.. He is flying way too high... Read in today that he is foraying into health diagnostics as well...


I traditionally stay away from stocks but would avoid any MF Invested heavily into adani fella...
 

Haldilal

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Way Adani is piling on debt, I wonder if he has the means to pay his EMI's if business environment worsens all of a sudden.

Looks like he is pledging his inflated shares and piling on debt.. wonder how much is going into business and how much of it is going offshore. Some of his companies are beyond bubble territory... hope it ends on a happy note and banks n public don't get a free forced haircut again.
Ya'll Nibbiars Daewoo 2.0 In Makings.

shubh shubh bol billay... LLJayenge...
Ya'll Nibbiars this would be the third largest Brankcrupt in the world and most of the Public sectors banks will stop withdrawal of money after this.

Debt is not particularly a bad thing especially in a high inflation era with locked in interest rates.

Fundamentals and high valuation is a different thing but almost nothing can be said just by taking debt in isolation. You have to give a bigger picture than that rather than just one aspect.

Where the debt is being utilized is also an important question to consider...might be worthwhile to use debt for it.
Ya'll Nibbiars agar uske paas paisa bana ne ka shadan hota to phir yeh bol skate the par uske Paas nahi hai. Now cash cows. And Building debt ilof future assets and profits that how Daewoo done most of its assets every very sound but when you go south every skeletons come outs.

Adani companies valuation is certainly not rational, I don't hold any stocks in his name even though it made my friends a lot of money. Kuch toh badbadh hai lekin dekhte hain aage kya hota hai

Well at least India is a more dynamic and high-growth economy than South-Korea so the ground is fertile for great debt-fueled growth and hopefully scaling the biz, stabilizing and paying the debt off in installments happens.

I don't particularly have great knowledge about his companies and their fundamentals though, need to research more about it.
Ya'll Nibbiars RoK was in similar situations as we are now so no differences. The no of the firms profits is thins here. And many one has seen drop in credit rating in recent years. So don't hope any miracles from the existing firms the new one will take and its a long strategy that can't work without any cash cows.

I'm scared for my job due to China only. I can't disclose alot but when I hear senior analysts and traders talking about how scared they are of their exposure to China it really worries me.

In one particular fund we brought down the exposure to junk real estate bonds from 29% to 14% even though they paid great interest rates due to risk totally overshooting our tolerance.

China is not looking good, I'm praying nothing major happens because it will FLIP the global economy on it's head and crush me beneath it. Indian Equity will crash almost immediately along with all other markets and there will be a huge capital flight back to the US.
Ya'll Nibbiars few days ago you got 15 percent hike and now worrying about job stability?.

In case of Adani most of debt is utilised to finance acquisition of companies such as media, cement etc. The debt is taken on pledging of shares which is a double whammy for this means the company does not have anything else worthy enough to wager that's why the promoter is offering the company itself to borrow loans. Debt utilised for capex expansions is good as in the long term the debt is repaid by way of higher sales giving in higher profits, earned through higher product sales generated from the capex expansion. Debt taken to buy other companies which may be in struggle situation themselves is not a good debt.
Ya'll Nibbiars this is just the start the situation is worth in many group firms.

15%? I got a lot more than that. Job is stable but if a huge wave comes the best of surfers will drown
Ya'll Nibbiars then why worry chills.

Baniya hoon isliye paise ki fikar rehti hai bro

View attachment 156472
Ya'll Nibbiars your worries are needless atleast you are 100 time better situation than me.

The GoI should prevent the sales proceeds of the cement factory from leaving India as a way to protect the lenders financing Adani's purchase of the company.
Ya'll Nibbiars Aap ki Finance kar do phir.

Ah yes, the paradox of self-worth in our society of rat-race.

We are all disappointments in some or the other way. During school this made me want to run away and become a monk due to all the pressure but thankfully I am sort of independent today, no telling what happens tomorrow.

Horrible things happen to good people all the time. I hope fate shines upon you.
Ya'll Nibbiars even in that condition you would be in better conditions than me.

IMO,

Govt need to control adani.. He is flying way too high... Read in today that he is foraying into health diagnostics as well...


I traditionally stay away from stocks but would avoid any MF Invested heavily into adani fella...
Ya'll Nibbiars you are late by one day late Latifahs.

Nope.. I am on the spot... No Adani exposure. In any of MF I own... ... See below



View attachment 156479
Ya'll Nibbiars it's already done.






 
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Blademaster

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Debt is not particularly a bad thing especially in a high inflation era with locked in interest rates.
Fundamentals and high valuation is a different thing but almost nothing can be said just by taking debt in isolation. You have to give a bigger picture than that rather than just one aspect.

Where the debt is being utilized is also an important question to consider...might be worthwhile to use debt for it.
Yeah as long as you use debt for the right reasons and you got the cash flow to service that debt. Otherwise what you wrote is a recipe for disaster.
 

Haldilal

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Ya'll Nibbiars

cw97odmm9rm51.jpg
 

Shuturmurg

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IMO,

Govt need to control adani.. He is flying way too high... Read in today that he is foraying into health diagnostics as well...


I traditionally stay away from stocks but would avoid any MF Invested heavily into adani fella...
Also, Adani is not a natural monopoly - i.e. companies that become too powerful because they have superior platform or tech. Instead most of Adani's revenue comes from heavy rent seeking sectors (sectors that need govt's blessings) like infra and energy. If by chance there is a change in central govt. they will be the most impacted.

Compare this to 2 other big industrial groups in India - Tata's have 50% of their revenue from overseas and Mukesh Bhai on other hand really creates value for customers like Jio, operates one of the most complex refineries and petro chemical complex (complexity here means different types of crudes they can handle and different types of petro-chemical products they can produce) and as his next move has already built up a portfolio of some of the most innovative energy storage and solar start ups in the world.
 

no smoking

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They are decoupling consciously from global economy;
Who tell you that? To some extent, they are forced by Americans to decouple Sino-US economies. On the other hand, they are extending their economic relationship with the rest of the world:
The RCEP is activated this year.
They are still pushing the Europeans to approve the Sino-Europe investment agreement.
They are still investing big money in their one belt one road policy.

preventing a event like the Chinese stock market collapse (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015–2016_Chinese_stock_market_turbulence) that lead to a huge capital flight outside of China.
Huge capital is leaving Chinese market is a fact as it is happening everywhere since US is increasing their interest rate.

But saying that Chinese stock market is going to collapse is laughable. Why? Because it has been in the bottom for years, there is really no much room to collapse.
1652923359840.png


Since the last peak -5166 (08/06/15), Chinese GDP increased from 11.06 T (2015) to 17.7 T (2021). In the meantime, the Chinese stock market has been hanging around 3000.

In the same period, here is US stock market:

1652923642912.png


Even India market has been accumulating more bulb than Chinese:
1652924040172.png
 

afako

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Adani can only go as long as business fundamentals are strong and cash flows are sufficient to repay debt. One change in macro fundamentals, regulations is enough to handicap some of the sectors. He is ADAG 2.0 in making.
 

HitmanBlood

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Why everyone is so scared about Adani's expansion . Business is all about risk and reward. Higer the risk higher the reward.

Adani is playing classic game of Monopoly. He is establishing himself in all important industries. Reminds me of western business tycoons of past and East Asian conglomerates of present day.

India is still new to capitalism game. Therefore many Indians still see ruthless and ambitious capitalism with lot of skepticism. Unlike socialist planned economy, Capitalism comes with lot of risks. Companies fail and succeed all the time. Capitalism is cycle of boom and bust.

It pains me when I see leftist journos mobilising public after bankrupt businesses like Nirav Modi and Vijay Malya. They use language like Chor and Daku. Businesses all over the world declare bankruptcy all the time and fail to repay their loans. Many banks may go under it because of that. This is not a special Indian phenomenon. Look at 2008 financial crisis in US, Where banks gave too many bad loans and was unable to repay. In any free economy such crisis will happen.

Not just Adani, any business can fail. Even a Chaiwala at your Nookad can fail. There are more than 100 unicorn startups in India. Sorry to burst bubble for many here but most of them will fail. Only a few of them will be successful. Those that fail will lead to lot of bad bank loans and many unemployed people. This is how free market capitalism works. Its all about natural selection based on market forces.

Just like failures thare are many glowing examples of high risk and high sucess as well which are never mentioned in Indian leftist media. There are inspirational stories of how how some visionary business person bet all their life savings on seemingly failing business and got catapulted into major success. These sort of stories are never told in India. Its always "This business took so much risk so it failed spectacularly. See Beta now be afraid of capitalism and go prepare for secure gov job."

Sucessful businesses knows how to take calculated risks for meximum profits. They have entire teams dedicated for decision making. Gautam Adani or any other CEO doesn't make decisions out of his a$$ based on his brainfarts. Those banks lending money to companies do extensive study of Return on Investment before giving single rupee. There are all sorts of gov regulations too on top this.

The only way to eliminate risk in economy is full socialism and red tape regulations. The problem with this setup is individual companies don't fail under socialism but rather entire nation fails collectively.

Seriously Indians needs to get out of their anti-capitalist mindset.
 

karn

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Why everyone is so scared about Adani's expansion . Business is all about risk and reward. Higer the risk higher the reward.

Adani is playing classic game of Monopoly. He is establishing himself in all important industries. Reminds me of western business tycoons of past and East Asian conglomerates of present day.

India is still new to capitalism game. Therefore many Indians still see ruthless and ambitious capitalism with lot of skepticism. Unlike socialist planned economy, Capitalism comes with lot of risks. Companies fail and succeed all the time. Capitalism is cycle of boom and bust.

It pains me when I see leftist journos mobilising public after bankrupt businesses like Nirav Modi and Vijay Malya. They use language like Chor and Daku. Businesses all over the world declare bankruptcy all the time and fail to repay their loans. Many banks may go under it because of that. This is not a special Indian phenomenon. Look at 2008 financial crisis in US, Where banks gave too many bad loans and was unable to repay. In any free economy such crisis will happen.

Not just Adani, any business can fail. Even a Chaiwala at your Nookad can fail. There are more than 100 unicorn startups in India. Sorry to burst bubble for many here but most of them will fail. Only a few of them will be successful. Those that fail will lead to lot of bad bank loans and many unemployed people. This is how free market capitalism works. Its all about natural selection based on market forces.

Just like failures thare are many glowing examples of high risk and high sucess as well which are never mentioned in Indian leftist media. There are inspirational stories of how how some visionary business person bet all their life savings on seemingly failing business and got catapulted into major success. These sort of stories are never told in India. Its always "This business took so much risk so it failed spectacularly. See Beta now be afraid of capitalism and go prepare for secure gov job."

Sucessful businesses knows how to take calculated risks for meximum profits. They have entire teams dedicated for decision making. Gautam Adani or any other CEO doesn't make decisions out of his a$$ based on his brainfarts. Those banks lending money to companies do extensive study of Return on Investment before giving single rupee. There are all sorts of gov regulations too on top this.

The only way to eliminate risk in economy is full socialism and red tape regulations. The problem with this setup is individual companies don't fail under socialism but rather entire nation fails collectively.

Seriously Indians needs to get out of their anti-capitalist mindset.
Look I am far from anti capitalist ..And admittedly I have not done an in depth DnD But Adanis spending is different and worries me .. Him trying to corner the airport and ports business ..fine .. Him getting a cement company.. fine.. Cause all these are related. Getting into totally new industries where you have no existing presence is an exercise in cash burning. Reliance at least has an existing presence in retail , energy , infra etc etc.
All that said thanks to all this gloom and doom I booked profits on adani stocks today.
 

Dark Sorrow

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Ever heard of saying "No"?
I would say you have never worked in an AMCs. You just can't say no.
You will loose your customers saying no. Losing customers means loosing profits.

AMCs don't have any stake in these funds as its the money form retail customers or other institutional investors.
 

HawkisRight

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Why everyone is so scared about Adani's expansion . Business is all about risk and reward. Higer the risk higher the reward.

Adani is playing classic game of Monopoly. He is establishing himself in all important industries. Reminds me of western business tycoons of past and East Asian conglomerates of present day.

India is still new to capitalism game. Therefore many Indians still see ruthless and ambitious capitalism with lot of skepticism. Unlike socialist planned economy, Capitalism comes with lot of risks. Companies fail and succeed all the time. Capitalism is cycle of boom and bust.

It pains me when I see leftist journos mobilising public after bankrupt businesses like Nirav Modi and Vijay Malya. They use language like Chor and Daku. Businesses all over the world declare bankruptcy all the time and fail to repay their loans. Many banks may go under it because of that. This is not a special Indian phenomenon. Look at 2008 financial crisis in US, Where banks gave too many bad loans and was unable to repay. In any free economy such crisis will happen.

Not just Adani, any business can fail. Even a Chaiwala at your Nookad can fail. There are more than 100 unicorn startups in India. Sorry to burst bubble for many here but most of them will fail. Only a few of them will be successful. Those that fail will lead to lot of bad bank loans and many unemployed people. This is how free market capitalism works. Its all about natural selection based on market forces.

Just like failures thare are many glowing examples of high risk and high sucess as well which are never mentioned in Indian leftist media. There are inspirational stories of how how some visionary business person bet all their life savings on seemingly failing business and got catapulted into major success. These sort of stories are never told in India. Its always "This business took so much risk so it failed spectacularly. See Beta now be afraid of capitalism and go prepare for secure gov job."

Sucessful businesses knows how to take calculated risks for meximum profits. They have entire teams dedicated for decision making. Gautam Adani or any other CEO doesn't make decisions out of his a$$ based on his brainfarts. Those banks lending money to companies do extensive study of Return on Investment before giving single rupee. There are all sorts of gov regulations too on top this.

The only way to eliminate risk in economy is full socialism and red tape regulations. The problem with this setup is individual companies don't fail under socialism but rather entire nation fails collectively.

Seriously Indians needs to get out of their anti-capitalist mindset.
This is right wing jholachaps Exfartgiri....Tata makes automobile, tata makes salt, tata runs commercial airlines, tata makes random shit And tata can't go bankrupt But adani buys something and adani is idiot....Ya 5th richest guy doing business for 40 years is idiot and jobless Exfart on internet know better than him...Lol.. anyone can go bankrupt its business.. adani is still less diversified than tata house or Ambani who sells jio in day and refined petro in night
 

karn

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This is right wing jholachaps Exfartgiri....Tata makes automobile, tata makes salt, tata runs commercial airlines, tata makes random shit And tata can't go bankrupt But adani buys something and adani is idiot....Ya 5th richest guy doing business for 40 years is idiot and jobless Exfart on internet know better than him...Lol.. anyone can go bankrupt its business.. adani is still less diversified than tata house or Ambani who sells jio in day and refined petro in night
Tata runs all this and has been doing so for a while.. that's why there is confidence that it won't go tits up. Corporate debt levels are going down for most .. adani being an exception .. at this time all central banks are hiking interest rates .. this will directly effect all those with large debt.
 

Haldilal

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What is this? Mumbai lookout for Spiderman?
Ya'll Nibbiars yeh kis angle se us univers ka Lagat hai?. Pagar bad gaya to Pina bhi bada kya be.
 

Shuturmurg

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Why everyone is so scared about Adani's expansion . Business is all about risk and reward. Higer the risk higher the reward.

Adani is playing classic game of Monopoly. He is establishing himself in all important industries. Reminds me of western business tycoons of past and East Asian conglomerates of present day.

India is still new to capitalism game. Therefore many Indians still see ruthless and ambitious capitalism with lot of skepticism. Unlike socialist planned economy, Capitalism comes with lot of risks. Companies fail and succeed all the time. Capitalism is cycle of boom and bust.

It pains me when I see leftist journos mobilising public after bankrupt businesses like Nirav Modi and Vijay Malya. They use language like Chor and Daku. Businesses all over the world declare bankruptcy all the time and fail to repay their loans. Many banks may go under it because of that. This is not a special Indian phenomenon. Look at 2008 financial crisis in US, Where banks gave too many bad loans and was unable to repay. In any free economy such crisis will happen.

Not just Adani, any business can fail. Even a Chaiwala at your Nookad can fail. There are more than 100 unicorn startups in India. Sorry to burst bubble for many here but most of them will fail. Only a few of them will be successful. Those that fail will lead to lot of bad bank loans and many unemployed people. This is how free market capitalism works. Its all about natural selection based on market forces.

Just like failures thare are many glowing examples of high risk and high sucess as well which are never mentioned in Indian leftist media. There are inspirational stories of how how some visionary business person bet all their life savings on seemingly failing business and got catapulted into major success. These sort of stories are never told in India. Its always "This business took so much risk so it failed spectacularly. See Beta now be afraid of capitalism and go prepare for secure gov job."

Sucessful businesses knows how to take calculated risks for meximum profits. They have entire teams dedicated for decision making. Gautam Adani or any other CEO doesn't make decisions out of his a$$ based on his brainfarts. Those banks lending money to companies do extensive study of Return on Investment before giving single rupee. There are all sorts of gov regulations too on top this.

The only way to eliminate risk in economy is full socialism and red tape regulations. The problem with this setup is individual companies don't fail under socialism but rather entire nation fails collectively.

Seriously Indians needs to get out of their anti-capitalist mindset.
Most of Adani's current revenue comes from sectors, where getting contract depends on who is in government, unlike Tata or RIL. While that in itself isn't bad (maybe they are the best in port and airport operations and mining), but that coupled with the fact that they are too close to current govt. definitely raises a bit of concern as to whether they will continue their success if another govt. comes, and also whether they have good corporate governance to diversify into more competitive sectors and survive.

May be they will, but only time will tell.
 

HawkisRight

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Tata runs all this and has been doing so for a while.. that's why there is confidence that it won't go tits up. Corporate debt levels are going down for most .. adani being an exception .. at this time all central banks are hiking interest rates .. this will directly effect all those with large debt.
Bank will hike rates in july/August and October/Nov...how will it affect adani specifically?... interest rate hike happens over two year cycle..Fed started rate hike in 2021 and RBI last month but the faq adani is got to do with it...If dude is over leveraged then dude must have big balls,big plans and big dreams..If u don't like it stay away form it simple..Tata survived doing some shitty business and selling some shitty stuff and some good PR..Adani can do what he wants as long as he keeps cashflow and balance sheets clean...Baaki sab apni zindagi ke maalik he
 

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