Indian Economy: News and Discussion

DEV1729

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Ye bhaisaab ka kuch alag he chal raha hai.....


View attachment 156471
Just like himalaya brand is unani and not ayurved
 

another_armchair

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Ya'll Nibbiars Daewoo 2.0 In Makings.
shubh shubh bol billay... LLJayenge...

Meanwhile...


Why we need organic real estate growth in India but we are following the failed US+Chinese infra+real estate developmental model to lift those scraping the bottom of the bowl out of poverty. Btw Evergrande has defaulted again.



According to Nikkei, China’s top smartphone makers - Xiaomi, Vivo, and Oppo - have told suppliers to scale back orders for the upcoming quarters by about 20% due to supply chain disruptions from the country’s Covid-19 lockdowns (i.e., demand has cratered).
 
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Varzone

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Ya'll Nibbiars Now Adani Group is the most debted Group in India with more than 6 Trillion Rupees of debt. Even Tata has group entire debt is less than 3,00,000 and working fast to reduce that's and RIL what to remain low debt for foreseeable future. This is what Daewoo done and when you go south you just. Taking a classic leaf out if the Daewoo and still not learning anything. And increasing debt from 3,50,000 crores to 6,00,000 just within one years is problematics.
Debt is not particularly a bad thing especially in a high inflation era with locked in interest rates.
Fundamentals and high valuation is a different thing but almost nothing can be said just by taking debt in isolation. You have to give a bigger picture than that rather than just one aspect.

Where the debt is being utilized is also an important question to consider...might be worthwhile to use debt for it.
 

another_armchair

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Debt is not particularly a bad thing especially in a high inflation era with locked in interest rates.
Fundamentals and high valuation is a different thing but almost nothing can be said just by taking debt in isolation. You have to give a bigger picture than that rather than just one aspect.

Where the debt is being utilized is also an important question to consider...might be worthwhile to use debt for it.
Debt is never a bad thing. Debt servicing is and when nobody wants to buy the assets you raised debt for, a lot of lenders will have to reluctantly head for the saloon.

Over leveraging is a problem. The topic was beaten to death post Lehman crisis but hey we never learn. Favorites will get a bailout, some will get thrown into the fire... baaki sab changa si.
 

another_armchair

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Ya'll Nibbiars Daewoo 2.0 In Makings.


Ya'll Nibbiars this would be the third largest Brankcrupt in the world and most of the Public sectors banks will stop withdrawal of money after this.
Now would be a good time to get some cash out of the bank and buy some gold, silver and probably a gun too.

Kidding man..
 

SKC

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shubh shubh bol billay... LLJayenge...

Meanwhile...


Why we need organic real estate growth in India but we are following the failed US+Chinese infra+real estate developmental model to lift those scraping the bottom of the bowl out of poverty. Btw Evergrande has defaulted again.


Chinese real state is almost on dying leg now. In China people don't have any option to invest their money.
The best way is to buy real state. Already people have bought 1-3 houses and the sale purchase has reached its extreme end now.
only way to save it is to decrease the lease dead from current 70 years to back to 40 years as it was before they changed rule some years back.
 

Varzone

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Debt is never a bad thing. Debt servicing is and when nobody wants to buy the assets you raised debt for, a lot of lenders will have to reluctantly head for the saloon.

Over leveraging is a problem. The topic was beaten to death post Lehman crisis but hey we never learn. Favorites will get a bailout, some will get thrown into the fire... baaki sab changa si.
Adani companies valuation is certainly not rational, I don't hold any stocks in his name even though it made my friends a lot of money. Kuch toh badbadh hai lekin dekhte hain aage kya hota hai

Ya'll Nibbiars agar uske paas paisa bana ne ka shaman bot to phir yeh bol skate the par uske Paar nahi hai. Now cash cows. And Building debt ilof future assets and profits that how Daewoo done most of its assets every very sound but when you go south every skeletons come outs.
Well at least India is a more dynamic and high-growth economy than South-Korea so the ground is fertile for great debt-fueled growth and hopefully scaling the biz, stabilizing and paying the debt off in installments happens.
I don't particularly have great knowledge about his companies and their fundamentals though, need to research more about it.
 

Varzone

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Chinese real state is almost on dying leg now. In China people don't have any option to invest their money.
The best way is to buy real state. Already people have bought 1-3 houses and the sale purchase has reached its extreme end now.
only way to save it is to decrease the lease dead from current 70 years to back to 40 years as it was before they changed rule some years back.
I'm scared for my job due to China only. I can't disclose alot but when I hear senior analysts and traders talking about how scared they are of their exposure to China it really worries me.
In one particular fund we brought down the exposure to junk real estate bonds from 29% to 14% even though they paid great interest rates due to risk totally overshooting our tolerance.

China is not looking good, I'm praying nothing major happens because it will FLIP the global economy on it's head and crush me beneath it. Indian Equity will crash almost immediately along with all other markets and there will be a huge capital flight back to the US.
 

another_armchair

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Chinese real state is almost on dying leg now. In China people don't have any option to invest their money.
The best way is to buy real state. Already people have bought 1-3 houses and the sale purchase has reached its extreme end now.
only way to save it is to decrease the lease dead from current 70 years to back to 40 years as it was before they changed rule some years back.
Those who are in a position to abandon ship are doing it.

Personally know of three Chinese folks(well connected ones) who have sold all their flats in China barring one and invested in other 'Asian' safe havens.
 

indus

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Debt is not particularly a bad thing especially in a high inflation era with locked in interest rates.
Fundamentals and high valuation is a different thing but almost nothing can be said just by taking debt in isolation. You have to give a bigger picture than that rather than just one aspect.

Where the debt is being utilized is also an important question to consider...might be worthwhile to use debt for it.
In case of Adani most of debt is utilised to finance acquisition of companies such as media, cement etc. The debt is taken on pledging of shares which is a double whammy for this means the company does not have anything else worthy enough to wager that's why the promoter is offering the company itself to borrow loans. Debt utilised for capex expansions is good as in the long term the debt is repaid by way of higher sales giving in higher profits, earned through higher product sales generated from the capex expansion. Debt taken to buy other companies which may be in struggle situation themselves is not a good debt.
 

SKC

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Those who are in a position to abandon ship are doing it.

Personally know of three Chinese folks(well connected ones) who have sold all their flats in China barring one and invested in other 'Asian' safe havens.
China is monitoring their citizens while they move out of the country. They have banned people taking more than 10K RMB outside the country now.
Most currency movement apps and websites now do not allow converting RMB into other currencies.
The only way left is the traditional Havala system. Give RMB to someone inside China and that person provide equivalent dollar or any other currency to person outside china.
 

Varzone

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China is monitoring their citizens while they move out of the country. They have banned people taking more than 10K RMB outside the country now.
Most currency movement apps and websites now do not allow converting RMB into other currencies.
The only way left is the traditional Havala system. Give RMB to someone inside China and that person provide equivalent dollar or any other currency to person outside china.
They are decoupling consciously from global economy; preventing a event like the Chinese stock market collapse (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015–2016_Chinese_stock_market_turbulence) that lead to a huge capital flight outside of China. They are not worried about what is not coming but more about what might leave.
 

Varzone

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Ya'll Nibbiars few days ago you got 15 percent hike and now worrying about job stability?.
15%? I got a lot more than that. Job is stable but if a huge wave comes the best of surfers will drown
 

another_armchair

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I'm scared for my job due to China only. I can't disclose alot but when I hear senior analysts and traders talking about how scared they are of their exposure to China it really worries me.
In one particular fund we brought down the exposure to junk real estate bonds from 29% to 14% even though they paid great interest rates due to risk totally overshooting our tolerance.

China is not looking good, I'm praying nothing major happens because it will FLIP the global economy on it's head and crush me beneath it. Indian Equity will crash almost immediately along with all other markets and there will be a huge capital flight back to the US.
Smart money started leaving China in 2015... surprised people till recently were still pumping money into Chinese real estate bonds. The warning bells were sounded as early as 2017-18...
 

Varzone

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Smart money started leaving China in 2015... surprised people till recently were still pumping money into Chinese real estate bonds. The warning bells were sounded as early as 2017-18...
It's not all our fault because clients wanted china exposure so we have to make products for it; other companies also have it so we need to provide it as well.
 

Blademaster

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The GoI should prevent the sales proceeds of the cement factory from leaving India as a way to protect the lenders financing Adani's purchase of the company.
 

another_armchair

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I'm scared for my job due to China only. I can't disclose alot but when I hear senior analysts and traders talking about how scared they are of their exposure to China it really worries me.
In one particular fund we brought down the exposure to junk real estate bonds from 29% to 14% even though they paid great interest rates due to risk totally overshooting our tolerance.

China is not looking good, I'm praying nothing major happens because it will FLIP the global economy on it's head and crush me beneath it. Indian Equity will crash almost immediately along with all other markets and there will be a huge capital flight back to the US.
Btw how much were you making on those junk bonds after deducting forex see-saws and slippages,taxes if any?
 

Varzone

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Ya'll Nibbiars your worries are needless atleast you are 100 time better situation than me.
Ah yes, the paradox of self-worth in our society of rat-race.
We are all disappointments in some or the other way. During school this made me want to run away and become a monk due to all the pressure but thankfully I am sort of independent today, no telling what happens tomorrow.
Horrible things happen to good people all the time. I hope fate shines upon you.
 

Varzone

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Btw how much were you making on those junk bonds after deducting forex see-saws and slippages,taxes if any?
We lost money on most just not as much as the benchmark and also had withdrawals from the fund itself.
Liquidity tightening by the Fed is draining money from risk assets.
We mostly have FX hedges on our positions so as to remove any contribution from FX turbulence.
 

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