Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[Physx32]

Another loss making decacorn

These food delivery startups will probably fail when per capita income increases above a certain point. But they'll probably try to automate the deliveries with drones and survive.

 

[ezsasa]

INDIA’S MANUFACTURING SECTOR IS TURNING A CORNER

 

[indiatester]

To illustrate my earlier comment, remember when India took part in the PISA test many years back? We finished 2nd last. Instead of admitting that our education system is in shambles and no here near as good as others, we dropped out of future PISA tests like sore losers, claiming “out of context” questions caused our poor results. When our ministers/govt is unable to digest facts and would rather play around with figures instead of admitting things are wrong, dont expect any big changes or improvements to happen. I thin the government finally admitted to the idiocy and we will participate in the next one

India To Participate In PISA 2021. Know What Is PISA

India will participate in PISA 2021. MHRD, in 2018, decided that India will become a participant in Programme for International Students Assessment (PISA).

www.ndtv.com

I don't get the role of those ratings either.

Few observations:
--------------------
1) Personal views:
I have seen myself and many of my classmates, colleagues from non-english medium schools excel at workplaces in pretty smart work. We give/gave every one a run for their money. Our output working from India and from US has been very good.

2) Scientific output:
Has been reasonable. Both Quantitatively and Qualitatively.

3) Diaspora:
Success is a very visible thing. Including as seen on popular media (Docs, scientists, professionals seen on sitcoms, movies etc)

With all this, such low ratings are hard to explain other than the possible explanation that may be the testing methodology itself is crappy.

Just my 2Rs.

 

[FalconSlayers]

We rebased our base year in 2015 to 2011-12 afaik which caused the dip of 2.3%.

@ezsasa maybe now I found out why the awkward dip instead of increase happened.
Congi CMIE data was used by NSO

 

[ezsasa]

@ezsasa maybe now I found out why the awkward dip instead of increase happened.
CMIE data was used by NSO
View attachment 133551

so is this report saying GDP used to be calculated based on CMIE data and now being calculated based on MCA-21, or vice versa ?

either way question we need to ask is why the eff is critical Govt's data being calculated based on NGO's data ?

 

[FalconSlayers]

so is this report saying GDP used to be calculated based on CMIE data and now being calculated based on MCA-21, or vice versa ?

either way question we need to ask is why the eff is Govt's data being calculated based on NGO's data ?

Thats what I was thinking that government should be calculating GDP with their own data collected, CMIE is a Scamgress owned NGO known to pull out fake BS like India’s Manufacturing jobs reduced to half in 5 years and other nonsense.

 

[ezsasa]

Thats what I was thinking that government should be calculating GDP with their own data collected, CMIE is a Scamgress owned NGO known to pull out fake BS like India’s Manufacturing jobs reduced to half in 5 years and other nonsense.

found an old post of mine, don't think we were aware of CMIE angle at that time. otherwise i would have mentioned.

basically they have revised three things in the method this year :
1) Revised the base year from 2005 to 2011, This allows the CSO to take into account new products which have come into market like LED TV which did not exist in indian market in 2005.
2) Recalculate the GDP inputs based on MCA21 data, MCA21 is a provision enabled during chidambaram's time where companies are supposed to upload their accounts onto a govt site. earlier the basis for this data was based on economic data of around 2500 companies identified by RBI based on certain parameters. Now the same is being calculated based on 500000 companies data. which gives the GDP figure closer to the actual. The calculation of informal sector is based on tax collected now rather than based on goods traded.
3) Our calculation method has been revised as per Global UN standards.

There may be more changes but the above points are the one's i understood.

Advantages of changing is that we will now be able to calculate the GDP closer to the actual number than before.I am hoping that next time govt releases the GDP data we might have some surprises.

Hope this helps.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

By 2030 will we reach 10K?

If we are able to improve exchange rate.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Ya'll Nibbiars hard only if we hit double digit growth them its even achievable one or two years ahead but going by the current mess it's hard.

Our big chunk of economic growth rate is eaten up by currency devaluation. Had we maintained 2014 exchange rate, our GDP would have been touching 4 bn USD by now. It is the failure of all our governments except the Vajpayee ji government to let our currency fail. By 2024, it should atleast be 60 INR vs An USD. By 2030, it should be 30. If we do that, we can touch 15 bn USD matk by 2030. I think it is doable though I am proved to be more optimistic ever.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Our big chunk of economic growth rate is eaten up by currency devaluation. Had we maintained 2014 exchange rate, our GDP would have been touching 4 bn USD by now. It is the failure of all our governments except the Vajpayee ji government to let our currency fail. By 2024, it should atleast be 60 INR vs An USD. By 2030, it should be 30. If we do that, we can touch 15 bn USD matk by 2030. I think it is doable though I am proved to be more optimistic ever.

Exports become more competitive due to currency devaluation.
And our currency will appreciate in future but not now.

Government Approves Equity Infusion of ₹10 Billion in Solar Energy Corporation of India - Mercom India

The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has announced that the government has approved an equity infusion of ₹10 billion (~$ 134.11 million) in Solar Energy Corporation of India Limited...

mercomindia.com

For achieving 11.63 pc growth rate, you need to grow at 6 to 7 pc in real term provided exchange rate remains constant. This year, we are likely to grow at 15 pc.

Only this year, not rest of the years.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Nah bille, $8.4 trillion by 2030 is an easily achievable target for $6k per capita GDP requiring 11.63% Nominal growth.

For achieving 11.63 pc growth rate, you need to grow at 6 to 7 pc in real term provided exchange rate remains constant. This year, we are likely to grow at 15 pc.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Exports become more competitive due to currency devaluation.
And our currency will appreciate in future but not now.

Government Approves Equity Infusion of ₹10 Billion in Solar Energy Corporation of India - Mercom India

The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has announced that the government has approved an equity infusion of ₹10 billion (~$ 134.11 million) in Solar Energy Corporation of India Limited...

mercomindia.com

It depends on which sort of export we do. If is in the area of export which develop countries do export, it will largely be not true. e. g if we export planes, we will be competing with US and Europe whose currency are heavily overpriced compared to purchase power. If we export textiles, we will be competing with BD and China. A very solid foundation of rapid economic growth is laid down since 2014, particularly since 2017. India is all set to grow at 8 to 10 pc for atleast 2 decades except some covid like exceptions. Numbers of unicorn start ups are testimony to what I say.

 

[FalconSlayers]

It depends on which sort of export we do. If is in the area of export which develop countries do export, it will largely be not true. e. g if we export planes, we will be competing with US and Europe whose currency are heavily overpriced compared to purchase power. If we export textiles, we will be competing with BD and China. A very solid foundation of rapid economic growth is laid down since 2014, particularly since 2017. India is all set to grow at 8 to 10 pc for atleast 2 decades except some covid like exceptions. Numbers of unicorn start ups are testimony to what I say.

I disagree with your assessment but we can wait till that time and will see who was right

 

[ezsasa]

Our big chunk of economic growth rate is eaten up by currency devaluation. Had we maintained 2014 exchange rate, our GDP would have been touching 4 bn USD by now. It is the failure of all our governments except the Vajpayee ji government to let our currency fail. By 2024, it should atleast be 60 INR vs An USD. By 2030, it should be 30. If we do that, we can touch 15 bn USD matk by 2030. I think it is doable though I am proved to be more optimistic ever.

among other things, it is a choice between maintaining a “stable” currency and forex reserves.

Paki chose to artificially maintain currency at the cost of their forex, and now they are begging for forex.

as things stand today, might as well use forex for exports and imports rather than waste it on currency manipulation.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

I disagree with your assessment but we can wait till that time and will see who was right

Why our GDP in nominal is almost 4 times lower than our GDP ppp? can you please explain that?

 

[HariPrasad-1]

among other things, it is a choice between maintaining a “stable” currency and forex reserves.

Paki chose to artificially maintain currency at the cost of their forex, and now they are begging for forex.

as things stand today, might as well use forex for exports and imports rather than waste it on currency manipulation.

Pakis currency fell because a very high trade deficit and big interest cost and loan repayment due in foreign currency. Porkistan was looted by porki army by enslaving their politicians. Case of porkies economic fall down goes beyond merely economic problem.

 

[ezsasa]

Pakis currency fell because a very high trade deficit and big interest cost and loan repayment due in foreign currency. Porkistan was looted by porki army by enslaving their politicians. Case of porkies economic fall down goes beyond merely economic problem.

sure, those political fundamentals might be there. but if you check USD PKR exchange rate, over the years pre-niyazi they stay flat for prolonged periods which is not possible unless there is currency manipulation.

 

[Covfefe]

There's no incentive to keep currency absolutely pumped up, especially at the cost of relatively scarce forex, unless you're an economy hugely dependent on financial services export like Switzerland

 

[HariPrasad-1]

sure, those political fundamentals might be there. but if you check USD PKR exchange rate, over the years pre-niyazi they stay flat for prolonged periods which is not possible unless there is currency manipulation.

Debt has increased by about 60 pc in Niyazi's time contributing to circular debt. Remittance could not rise or even fell because porkies been kicked out of different parts of the world import rose even in the area of cotton, sugar and food gains. Mismanagement of Niyazi made it happened very fast. what would have happened in 10 years happened in 3 years. Niyazi is our Hero.

 

[karn]

Why our GDP in nominal is almost 4 times lower than our GDP ppp? can you please explain that?

If one maintains a trade deficit constantly there is always a selling pressure on one's currency.
The USD Euro and the Swiss frank are big exceptions since every country buys USD and euros for trade creating a constant buying pressure on them . And rich folks buy the Swiss frank cause the Swiss keep the value of the frank absolutely steady making it a safe investment.