NFHS is a mere sample survey. For India to cross TFR officially census needs to confirm that first; UNICEF puts India's TFR at around 2.2.In some ways, demographics and agriculture are inextricably interlinked. India’s economic growth depends on these.www.firstpost.com
With our population now officially below replacement levels every year is going to add more and more old people into our workforce.
Except that Vietnam has TFR well below 2 (close to 1.9 iirc) and is one of the fastest aging nations in the world. Not to mention that mere screwdrivergiri like them won't work in India. I am not downplaying their achievement though; it is just that you do not compare India with them. Trade war helped them and to their credit they fully capitalized on that. Components cross the sino-Vietnam border multiple times before finally getting assembled in Vietnam; you cannot do that here. These stupid comparisons between Asian economies were initiated by Gloomberg idiots ( as if the entire continent is a monolith ); who do not know jackshit about emerging economies. Let us not over hype things.This leaves us with 2-3 decades before our population starts falling rapidly. While the chinese have already escaped the middle income trap to begin their journey towards a high end manufacturing economy India has been unable to attract a lot of the manufacturing here with Vietnam beating us by a significant margin.
Not aware of the data but (assuming it to be true) a single disruptive year (amidst a pandemic) is not enough to discard a secular time series trend which (going by prevailing situation), if anything, is nearing the crucial Lewis turning point; thereby accelerating the trend,Rather than a decrease in agriculture sector's contribution to the economy there has been a increase over the past year which is the exact opposite of a manufacturing economy.
Inflation is well within the tolerance level as of now.India will be need a range of extensive reforms if we wish to have a growth rate of at least 9%. With consumer spending still not picking up and base effect residing our GDP growth is once again falling in the 6-7% bracket.
Our inflation rate is at 5.6% right now matching some of the developed countries.
Major reforms in labor and land sectors more money in the hand of consumers disinvestment lower inflation along with massive investments in low end manufacturing is the need of the hour.
Again, a single month is not enough to project a future time series.