Indian Economy: News and Discussion

Concard

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What facts and analysis are you looking for?

- Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) peaked in 2007/08. In the last few years it has stagnated (slightly decreased) at ~28%, compared to Modi govt's aim of 36% by 2022.


- Mechandise exports were $300 billion in 2014, and will touch $400 billion this fiscal. Overall growth has been terrible across the 7 years. Exports have finally shown actual growth this year to record levels, so hope this continues


- Our industrial growth indicators have been horrific in the last few years. The common excuse is that the indicators have been broken. Well, why havent they been fixed then?


- Labour participation rate has decreased in the last 10 years, from 50-52 in 2014 to 47 now. It used to be 57 in 2010 so the decrease has been going on for a long time.


- Unemployment figures are terrible. People keep making excuses claiming CMIE is a commie organisation, NSSO is not accurate etc. Then wtf is stopping the government from releasing detailed quarterly job statistics like most other countries? No wonder things in this country are so lethargic when the central government themselves have no idea wtf is the state of the economy and remains in denial.


The infra push, PLI scheme and GST are only good things on the economy front in the last few years
I suggest you to go back to school and understand how to write an analysis based on data. Simply copy pasting from websites and barking like a mad dog sounds childish. When you do write about something try writing on one topic or few topics instead of taking in a mouthful and puking everything.
 

Haldilal

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What facts and analysis are you looking for?

- Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) peaked in 2007/08. In the last few years it has stagnated (slightly decreased) at ~28%, compared to Modi govt's aim of 36% by 2022.


- Mechandise exports were $300 billion in 2014, and will touch $400 billion this fiscal. Overall growth has been terrible across the 7 years. Exports have finally shown actual growth this year to record levels, so hope this continues


- Our industrial growth indicators have been horrific in the last few years. The common excuse is that the indicators have been broken. Well, why havent they been fixed then?


- Labour participation rate has decreased in the last 10 years, from 50-52 in 2014 to 47 now. It used to be 57 in 2010 so the decrease has been going on for a long time.


- Unemployment figures are terrible. People keep making excuses claiming CMIE is a commie organisation, NSSO is not accurate etc. Then wtf is stopping the government from releasing detailed quarterly job statistics like most other countries? No wonder things in this country are so lethargic when the central government themselves have no idea wtf is the state of the economy and remains in denial.


The infra push, PLI scheme and GST are only good things on the economy front in the last few years
Ya'll Nibbiars

1 . we had many up and downs in the exports and now got our acts rights.

2 . The PLI will have long terms effects which were delayed for many years but now implemented properlya.

3 . The Infrastructure push is much needed.

4 . The other thing will get once we get our acts properlya.
 

India Super Power

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I suggest you to go back to school and understand how to write an analysis based on data. Simply copy pasting from websites and barking like a mad dog sounds childish. When you do write about something try writing on one topic or few topics instead of taking in a mouthful and puking everything.
I don't think he is saying something wrong
Our economy seems complete shit compared to SEA countries or other major economies
This govt doesn't have a good record regarding economy
Not an expert but still
 

Shuturmurg

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I suggest you to go back to school and understand how to write an analysis based on data. Simply copy pasting from websites and barking like a mad dog sounds childish. When you do write about something try writing on one topic or few topics instead of taking in a mouthful and puking everything.
Lol, just emotional outburst since you can't provide a proper point by point rebuttal. Not surprising, since there is a section of blind followers of this government that don't accept any criticism of this government .
 

ezsasa

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What facts and analysis are you looking for?

- Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) peaked in 2007/08. In the last few years it has stagnated (slightly decreased) at ~28%, compared to Modi govt's aim of 36% by 2022.


- Mechandise exports were $300 billion in 2014, and will touch $400 billion this fiscal. Overall growth has been terrible across the 7 years. Exports have finally shown actual growth this year to record levels, so hope this continues


- Our industrial growth indicators have been horrific in the last few years. The common excuse is that the indicators have been broken. Well, why havent they been fixed then?


- Labour participation rate has decreased in the last 10 years, from 50-52 in 2014 to 47 now. It used to be 57 in 2010 so the decrease has been going on for a long time.


- Unemployment figures are terrible. People keep making excuses claiming CMIE is a commie organisation, NSSO is not accurate etc. Then wtf is stopping the government from releasing detailed quarterly job statistics like most other countries? No wonder things in this country are so lethargic when the central government themselves have no idea wtf is the state of the economy and remains in denial.


The infra push, PLI scheme and GST are only good things on the economy front in the last few years
Response to some of the points :

- GFCF was high in 2008 and years prior was because the global financial system was flooded with cheap money, which ultimately led to global financial meltdown. it was a global phenomenon.

- Merchandise exports of 2014 were 300 billion $ because 60 billion $ of those were petroleum exports, at a time when barrel was touching 110 $. this again related to global phenomenon. what we want to see is a more diversified export merchandise portfolio.

- World's (not just India's )industrial growth is predicated on de-industrialisation of China in this century, we all are fighting within what's left outside of china and SE Asia. the growth numbers are going to be like that, and there is a global cold war right now going on because of this.

- labour participation rate comes delayed by 2-3 years, that's the amount of time it takes to collect nation wide data. latest available data is 2018 data. and there will be nuances within the data, depth of the conversation will depend of how much of the nuances are people discussing this topic willing to accept.

- Quarterly job numbers are available in US because US FED calculates them, just like RBI has been given responsibility these days for inflation control. for us be at a stage to being able to calculate this number, formalisation of economy has to be finished first.
 

Shuturmurg

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Response to some of the points :

- GFCF was high in 2008 and years prior was because the global financial system was flooded with cheap money, which ultimately led to global financial meltdown. it was a global phenomenon.

- Merchandise exports of 2014 were 300 billion $ because 60 billion $ of those were petroleum exports, at a time when barrel was touching 110 $. this again related to global phenomenon. what we want to see is a more diversified export merchandise portfolio.

- World's (not just India's )industrial growth is predicated on de-industrialisation of China in this century, we all are fighting within what's left outside of china and SE Asia. the growth numbers are going to be like that, and there is a global cold war right now going on because of this.

- labour participation rate comes delayed by 2-3 years, that's the amount of time it takes to collect nation wide data. latest available data is 2018 data. and there will be nuances within the data, depth of the conversation will depend of how much of the nuances are people discussing this topic willing to accept.

- Quarterly job numbers are available in US because US FED calculates them, just like RBI has been given responsibility these days for inflation control. for us be at a stage to being able to calculate this number, formalisation of economy has to be finished first.
In 2014 india exported 320 billion $ of merchandise of which 55 billion was petroleum related; So non petroleum exports = 320-55 = 265 billion $

In 2019 india exported 330 billion $ of merchandise of which 40 billion was petroleum related; So non petroleum exports = 330-40 = 290 billion $

Vietnam in the meantime grew its exports from 158 billion USD to 280 billion USD.

Source :

This website has really good visualizations on trade data
 

Concard

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Lol, just emotional outburst since you can't provide a proper point by point rebuttal. Not surprising, since there is a section of blind followers of this government that don't accept any criticism of this government .
What bloody rebuttal? He talks about broad spectrum of topics all in few sentences which doesn't take a huge deal of effort to write that. And I am supposed to write an big effing essay to rebut his points? Why not bring one topic into discussion and take it from there? This kind of arguments is something I hear from Congress stooges. It's kind of effective since they don't have to put much effort into the discussion. All they have to say is everything is bad and run away. And the person who rebuts have to research each point and write a big freaking essay which no one is going to read.
 

ezsasa

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In 2014 india exported 320 billion $ of merchandise of which 55 billion was petroleum related; So non petroleum exports = 320-55 = 265 billion $

In 2019 india exported 330 billion $ of merchandise of which 40 billion was petroleum related; So non petroleum exports = 330-40 = 290 billion $

Vietnam in the meantime grew its exports from 158 billion USD to 280 billion USD.

Source :

This website has really good visualizations on trade data
we want non-petroleum non-gem merchandise exports to grow, that's a good thing, that's where industrial growth will come from.

what exactly is the purpose of mentioning vietnam?
 

FalconSlayers

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—-x-——-x-——-x-——-x-——-x-——-x-——-x-——-x-——-x-——-x-—

Indian startups raised $42 bn in 2021, up from $11.5 bn in 2020: Report
IBEF: January 14, 2022

According to a research by Orios Venture Partners, Indian entrepreneurs raised US$ 42 billion in 2021, up from US$ 11.5 billion the previous year. According to the 'The Indian Tech Unicorn Report 2021,' India will have 46 unicorns (businesses valued at US$ 1 billion or more) in 2021, more than doubling the overall number to 90. ShareChat, Cred, Meesho, Nazara, Moglix, MPL, Grofers (now Blinkit), upGrad, Mamaearth, GlobalBees, Acko, Spinny, and other services are among them.

With 90 unicorns, India is the third-largest unicorn hub after the United States (487) and China (301), and ahead of the United Kingdom (39).

With around 60,000 startups, India boasts the world's third-largest startup ecosystem.
"These startups are not only developing innovative solutions and technologies but are generating large-scale employment. Today, one out of 13 unicorns globally was born in India," it said.

Flipkart was the most valuable unicorn (US$ 37.6 billion after raising US$ 3.6 billion in July 2021), while Mensa Brands was the fastest to become a unicorn (just 6 months after raising the first US$ 50 million round in May 2021), according to the report.

According to the report, India has witnessed four decacorns (businesses valued at US$ 10 billion or more) thus far: Flipkart, Paytm, Byju's, and Oyo Rooms.

"A total of 11 Indian startups (including 8 unicorns) raised about US$ 7.16 billion through public offerings...One97 Communication (Paytm) raised India's largest-ever IPO with an issue size of Rs 18,300 crore (US$ 2.46 billion)," it said.

Furthermore, among the listed Indian companies, Zomato has the greatest market capitalization (US$ 14.8 billion), followed by Nykaa (US$ 13.5 billion) and Freshworks (US$ 6.9 billion), according to the survey.

In addition, 20% of unicorn founders are non-engineers, and two-thirds of Indian unicorns have at least one or more founders from IITs, IIMs, or ISBs, according to the survey.
 

Crazywithmath

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we want non-petroleum non-gem merchandise exports to grow, that's a good thing, that's where industrial growth will come from.

what exactly is the purpose of mentioning vietnam?
Economic growth was okayish (7% +) till late 2018. NPA pile ups and the resulting banking sector crisis (UPA legacy) derailed the growth afterwards. India's economic slowdown did not originate due to many structural issues to begin with. Why do some folks always forget this here? It was recovering in Q4 FY 2019-20 but then the chinese virus struck and delayed it by a year.
As for,
1. Bangladesh:

BBS' statistical dishonesty aside, whatever export success they have had is on account of being an LDC and nothing else and even that is actually slowing. Their 'model' is overhyped by
Mihir Sharma, Andy Mukherjee types.

1626957604057.png

See how hollow that 'model' is?

2. Vietnam:

Direct winner of trade war. If restrictions are imposed on an industrial powerhouse; exports from its neighborhood would increase. That model of screwdrivergiri will not work in a big economy like India though.

not a doomsday projection, it’s written in RBI external debt position bulletin. interesting part is how will RBI tackle this.

or maybe RBI is already tackling it, and that’s the reason forex reserve is not moving up this fiscal as fast as it did the year prior.
I was talking about projections made by Gloomberg types - the Rupee is going to be the worst performing Asian currency and what not. Rupee barely depreciated. On the debt position front, the RBI has been preparing for this; nothing to worry about yet.
 

Cheepek

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In 2014 india exported 320 billion $ of merchandise of which 55 billion was petroleum related; So non petroleum exports = 320-55 = 265 billion $
Price effect, rupee had devalued ~22% in last 2-3 years.
This is why our exports slumped a steep ~15% in 2015, apart from the crude oil prices. Depreciation of currency works short term only.
 
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Covfefe

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Economic growth was okayish (7% +) till late 2018. NPA pile ups and the resulting banking sector crisis (UPA legacy) derailed the growth afterwards. India's economic slowdown did not originate due to many structural issues to begin with. Why do some folks always forget this here? It was recovering in Q4 FY 2019-20 but then the chinese virus struck and delayed it by a year.
As for,
1. Bangladesh:

BBS' statistical dishonesty aside, whatever export success they have had is on account of being an LDC and nothing else and even that is actually slowing. Their 'model' is overhyped by
Mihir Sharma, Andy Mukherjee types.

View attachment 132212
See how hollow that 'model' is?

2. Vietnam:

Direct winner of trade war. If restrictions are imposed on an industrial powerhouse; exports from its neighborhood would increase. That model of screwdrivergiri will not work in a big economy like India though.


I was talking about projections made by Gloomberg types - the Rupee is going to be the worst performing Asian currency and what not. Rupee barely depreciated. On the debt position front, the RBI has been preparing for this; nothing to worry about yet.
Masterstroke of demonetisation coupled with almost stoppage of credit disbursals post NPA crisis did our economy some severe damage.
hag diye thay mudiji in the name of demonetisation seriously
 

Crazywithmath

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Masterstroke of demonetisation coupled with almost stoppage of credit disbursals post NPA crisis did our economy some severe damage.
hag diye thay mudiji in the name of demonetisation seriously
Going by Gita Gopinath's paper the 2nd issue was way bigger. DeMo affected quarterly growth by 200 bps and beyond that its effect was minimal; does not explain the muted growth from late 2018 onward. NPA, banking crisis were bigger factors.

P.S. - Both caused temporary damages.
 

FalconSlayers

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🤡🤡🤡

 

Covfefe

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🤡🤡🤡

What's this Indian media and politicos' obsession with Tesla? They already have created a giga factory in China. At the best, they'll bring some low value addition assembly job here and will ask for shit load of benefits for the same. Obviously the company won't have a domestic consumption surge atleast for a decade (Indians aren't buying a 40-50k USD car en masse), and the export center is also going to be China primarily. If they invested the equal amount of incentives with other manufacturers result could be better
 

Covfefe

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Going by Gita Gopinath's paper the 2nd issue was way bigger. DeMo affected quarterly growth by 200 bps and beyond that its effect was minimal; does not explain the muted growth from late 2018 onward. NPA, banking crisis were bigger factors.

P.S. - Both caused temporary damages.
Which paper? Could you please share the link
 

Haldilal

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Ya'll Nibbiars cam a banking regulators with this kind of RBL shock?. Shouldn't the i vestirs ask the question and should the RBI personnel should be accountable for the Christmas panic?. And shouldn't they give a explanation what happened during that time?. What happened at the RBL?. What was so wrong that the RBI took this dramatic decision. And next day you turned around and say exerting is fine and nothing serious happened. Then who is responsible for creating this panic?. And even if some information comes our its called UPSI The Unpublished Sensetive Information. And there are penalties.

And here is the regulators like the RBI shamelessly creating a disparaging without a clear Information and them taking a turn back and saying everything is fine. The stock goes next day and everybody is in a panic mode. The investors loses the money and the RBI walks scotch free. If this kind of events continue then who is responsible for this unessesary panic and Investors loesses. The RBI should be held responsible for this disruption and be held accountable.

Lest look the story brom the beginning the MD of the RBL is being around for 11 years basically made the RBL from a local bank based in Kolhapur to a national bank. And them out of nowhere is forced to quit without a explanation and the RBI replace with a director within the regulators without any explanation and next days say everything is fine.

And I the case of the Yes Bank The RBI appointed one if its director after long after everybody knew about it problems. But a sudden appointment on a holiday without any explanation raises eyebrows everywhere. As this is highly suspicious and raises many question on the regulators like the RBI. And kts not just a medical leave but a reginations without explanation from the RBL Bank and from the RBI.
 

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