Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[Covfefe]

Top 10 items (Jan-Oct 21)

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Select higher level HS codes like 4 digit level and 8 digit level, that'll give a more granular view- like when we say Iron and Steel then which product in that larger group

 

[sauntheninja]

Use this website, you get a detailed HSCode level commodity wise- monthly breakup

https://tradestat.commerce.gov.in/meidb/cntcomq.asp?ie=i

Any website to check what we export to them the last time all we exported was raw materials and low tech stuff

 

[Covfefe]

Any website to check what we export to them the last time all we exported was raw materials and low tech stuff

Same website has both import and export section, you can get both the data at HS code levels. Will take some time, but a good analysis report sector wise could be made out of it (like electronics, iron and steel)

 

[Covfefe]

Same website has both import and export section, you can get both the data at HS code levels. Will take some time, but a good analysis report sector wise could be made out of it (like electronics, iron and steel)

Let the new economic survey and budget come out, I'll try to put together something based on their data, policies of the govt and these data. Been a long time since we did some actual data driven discussion here, mostly it's top-level ideas of exports and imports

 

[sauntheninja]

Same website has both import and export section, you can get both the data at HS code levels. Will take some time, but a good analysis report sector wise could be made out of it (like electronics, iron and steel)

As i thought most of the stuff we export are low tech raw materials while we import finished goods

 

[Covfefe]

As i thought most of the stuff we export are low tech raw materials while we import finished goods

That's obvious, it's mostly ores.

 

[sauntheninja]

That's obvious, it's mostly ores.

And the imports keep doubling year on year

 

[Covfefe]

And the imports keep doubling year on year

We should keep an eye on the finished goods import(especially the consumer durables and consumer packaged goods). Other than that input, intermediary and capital goods import will take their own sweet time to be either localised or sourced alternatively.

 

[FalconSlayers]

 

[ezsasa]

Bhajicucks need a hammering in their behinds, they have cucked our economy and are giving too much market access to chongs with the koolaid of aatmanirbhar bharat and make in India for gullible andh bhakts. Trade deficit is widening overall and our ministers are busy beating the bush of muh exports when import growth is more than export growth. Chinks don’t give you much market access for finished products and here we are, Shupa powa vishwaguru.

this criticism (more of derogatory rant) is valid if there was no attempt by GoI to reduce imports (which is not the case) and increase domestic production. if local demand is rising, Indian businessmen will not sit around waiting for domestic manufacturing to get set up, their job is to provide goods and services and make money.

domestic pharma manufacturing PLI policy is two years old, domestic electronics manufacturing PLI policy is one year old.

GoI can’t block imports because of WTO nonsense, can only create policies for local businesses to create cheaper alternatives.

 

[FalconSlayers]

this criticism (more of derogatory rant) is valid if there was no attempt by GoI to reduce imports (which is not the case) and increase domestic production. if local demand is rising, Indian businessmen will not sit around waiting for domestic manufacturing to get set up, their job is to provide goods and services and make money.

domestic pharma manufacturing PLI policy is two years old, domestic electronics manufacturing PLI policy is one year old.

GoI can’t block imports because of WTO nonsense, can only create policies for local businesses to create cheaper alternatives.

Sorry sir, was angry after seeing the new camo, please delete my that post.

 

[FalconSlayers]

 

[ezsasa]

Brace yourself for opeds this year saying Modi has bankrupted India.
some old short term debts coming up for repayment.
==========
India's forex reserves to face $256 billion overseas debt challenge in next 12 months

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

 

[Crazywithmath]

Brace yourself for opeds this year saying Modi has bankrupted India.
some old short term debts coming up for repayment.
==========
India's forex reserves to face $256 billion overseas debt challenge in next 12 months

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Have been hearing doomsday projections on rupee for more than a year now. Whatever projections they made went wrong; rupee barely depreciated.

 

[ezsasa]

Have been hearing doomsday projections on rupee for more than a year now. Whatever projections they made went wrong; rupee barely depreciated.

not a doomsday projection, it’s written in RBI external debt position bulletin. interesting part is how will RBI tackle this.

or maybe RBI is already tackling it, and that’s the reason forex reserve is not moving up this fiscal as fast as it did the year prior.

 

[nongaddarliberal]

One major criticism I see of the Indian economy from foreign sources is the high levels of debt in the economy and non performing assets. Is that criticism valid? It keeps recurring in global talk of the Indian economy.

 

[Concard]

not a doomsday projection, it’s written in RBI external debt position bulletin. interesting part is how will RBI tackle this.

or maybe RBI is already tackling it, and that’s the reason forex reserve is not moving up this fiscal as fast as it did the year prior.

I thought IMF requested RBI to go slow on dollar buying spree. With respect to $256 billion debt in 12 months issue, I saw in 2013 a similar report. Here it is,

India has to repay $172 billion debt by March 2014

Burden triples in six years; outflow will deplete 60 % of forex reserves

www.thehindu.com

And this was in 2013 when we had paltry $260 billion in reserves. We somehow sailed through the situation. RBI would be aware of that advance. Let's see what happens.

 

[Covfefe]

One major criticism I see of the Indian economy from foreign sources is the high levels of debt in the economy and non performing assets. Is that criticism valid? It keeps recurring in global talk of the Indian economy.

NPA lying between 7-9% of the balance sheet and debt to GDP in 70-75% range. Not off by any metric. Most of the authors are stupid/ doomsayers to compare the debt levels of a developing low middle income country to a developed high income country.

India's problem lies in smaller size of its banks and extremely low balance sheet to GDP size(70 percent for India to 130 percent for China). That's why almost all the committees starting from Narasimham committee post 1992 liberalisation have recommended consolidation of PSBs(most of the NPAs ~80ish percentage arose out of corrupt lending practices by PSBs that led to scuttle of GDP growth by 2018-19). Alas, none of the governments have successfully achieved mass consolidation of these entities.

 

[ezsasa]

I thought IMF requested RBI to go slow on dollar buying spree. With respect to $256 billion debt in 12 months issue, I saw in 2013 a similar report. Here it is,

India has to repay $172 billion debt by March 2014

Burden triples in six years; outflow will deplete 60 % of forex reserves

www.thehindu.com

And this was in 2013 when we had paltry $260 billion in reserves. We somehow sailed through the situation. RBI would be aware of that advance. Let's see what happens.

is there a way to find out if the current 2021 debt (the one the news report is talking about) was taken to clear 2013-14 debt?

 

[thebakofbakchod]

Debt is such a lousy excuse. Our debt problems are severely overblown, and reducing credit lending will be the dumbest thing that anyone can do