Indian Economy: News and Discussion

ezsasa

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All I am saying is that the IMF data for India is not considering inflation and calculating the real GDP growth and real GDP only. For instance, a real growth of 9.5% in FY 2021-22 and inflation of 5.6% adds up to a net nominal growth of 15.1% and thus the per capita nominal GDP should rise to about ~ $2.2k+ from the present $1.93k. But they are showing $2.13k only. I checked the previous year data also, they downgraded pcGDP from ~$2.1k to ~$1.93k (8% contraction as per their projection); again no inflation considered. While in case of BD they are increasing their pcGDP from $1.95k to $2.15 considering a real growth of 4.6%. How on earth is this possible?
So, yes. you are right, they are not adding Inflation in GDP per capita (Current prices) for India.

Screenshot 2021-10-16 at 9.02.23 PM.png



we can check if there is any clue in IMF documents

But for IMF version of truth, surjit bhalla may be the right person.
 

Haldilal

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So, yes. you are right, they are not adding Inflation in GDP per capita (Current prices) for India.

View attachment 114903


we can check if there is any clue in IMF documents

But for IMF version of truth, surjit bhalla may be the right person.
Has India's currency been downgraded to an extent where it would affect the per capita nominal GDP by that much? And India has a TFR of ~2.2 or perhaps even lower. Even population growth does not explain it. They are ignoring inflation of India; now whether it is because of lack of data or anything like that ... well who knows!
Ya'll Nibbiars wait will answer your question.

And Surjitballa will not answer the question hardly active on the Twitter.
 
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abingdonboy

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The situation seems to be getting better gradually




India managed this much better than China who had to impose rolling blackouts
 

HawkisRight

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All I am saying is that the IMF data for India is not considering inflation and calculating the real GDP growth and real GDP only. For instance, a real growth of 9.5% in FY 2021-22 and inflation of 5.6% adds up to a net nominal growth of 15.1% and thus the per capita nominal GDP should rise to about ~ $2.2k+ from the present $1.93k. But they are showing $2.13k only. I checked the previous year data also, they downgraded pcGDP from ~$2.1k to ~$1.93k (8% contraction as per their projection); again no inflation considered. While in case of BD they are increasing their pcGDP from $1.95k to $2.15 considering a real growth of 4.6%. How on earth is this possible?
Brother this might help you..read through this...PS gdp deflator for India in 2020 was 4.6%

 

Haldilal

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This is another factor, India manipulates currency. Do check out the old posts on this thread itself where I compared the variation of currency exchange rates of various emerging economies (India, BD, Vietnam, Indonesia).
Ya'll Nibbiars actually we would had been far greater in the GDP numbers if the rupees had not deprecated that much.
 

Haldilal

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where did this 4.6% come from?
Ya'll Nibbiars The GDP Deflator in India is expected to reach 146.57 points by the end of 2021, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the India GDP Deflator is projected to trend around 153.55 points in 2022 and 160.61 points in 2023.

Ya'll Nibbiars @ezsasq Nibba it's correct at the Q3 of the 2020 it was 4.8 Percentage. The India GDP deflator Implicit price deflator increased 4.8 Percent in Dec 2020, compared with an increase of 3.4 Percent in the previous quarter. In April 5.683 percent and June 2.822 percent.
 

ezsasa

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Ya'll Nibbiars The GDP Deflator in India is expected to reach 146.57 points by the end of 2021, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the India GDP Deflator is projected to trend around 153.55 points in 2022 and 160.61 points in 2023.
This discussion started with IMF calculations.
Does IMF use GDP deflator ?
and where does inflation figure in IMF calculation?
and does IMF declare GDP deflator annually ?
 

Haldilal

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This discussion started with IMF calculations.
Does IMF use GDP deflator ?
and where does inflation figure in IMF calculation?
and does IMF declare GDP deflator annually ?
Ya'll Nibbiars you need to use your wording more properly.
 

HawkisRight

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IMF declares inflation.. deflator is also inflation minus imports aka rise in prices.. I was providing source for the query posted regarding real,nominal gdp rates and inflation
 

Tshering22

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Old maids' tales. No way that surveys done over decades, across the length and breadth of the country are all wrong. The Indian census bureau is actually really well respected; its expertise sought by the likes of the UN.
Well, then explain to me the heavy population density in certain regions of the country. I don't care what eminence some institution has as long as the truth is in front of me. Now NE as a whole has the same problem as Western countries since most people from my region move to metro cities for jobs.

But if you are telling me that what I told is a 'tale', especially for Rajasthan, Haryana, UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal, MP, etc. then I suggest you to take your vaccine jabs ASAP, apply for a 1-2 month leave and travel around the country. Live among the people far away from your urban centre and see what I mean.
 

Sehwag231

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All I am saying is that the IMF data for India is not considering inflation and calculating the real GDP growth and real GDP only. For instance, a real growth of 9.5% in FY 2021-22 and inflation of 5.6% adds up to a net nominal growth of 15.1% and thus the per capita nominal GDP should rise to about ~ $2.2k+ from the present $1.93k. But they are showing $2.13k only. I checked the previous year data also, they downgraded pcGDP from ~$2.1k to ~$1.93k (8% contraction as per their projection); again no inflation considered. While in case of BD they are increasing their pcGDP from $1.95k to $2.15 considering a real growth of 4.6%. How on earth is this possible?
You are ignoring currency depreciation . Rupee depreciated 4 to 5% due to covid in 2020-21.

One of the major reason China's gdp grew fast in USD is because their currency appreciated annually 2-3 % because of large trade surplus.
Whereas in case of India, currency depreciates annually 2 to 3% because of large trade deficit.
 

IndianSpiderman

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Well, then explain to me the heavy population density in certain regions of the country. I don't care what eminence some institution has as long as the truth is in front of me. Now NE as a whole has the same problem as Western countries since most people from my region move to metro cities for jobs.

But if you are telling me that what I told is a 'tale', especially for Rajasthan, Haryana, UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal, MP, etc. then I suggest you to take your vaccine jabs ASAP, apply for a 1-2 month leave and travel around the country. Live among the people far away from your urban centre and see what I mean.
That's a classic case of confirmation bias. Moreover, high population density =/= high population growth rate. Take for example Sub Saharan Africa and Eastern China. The former has very low population density with the highest fertility rates ever known to man; the latter is its polar opposite. India, due to its unique geography, had always had higher population density than the rest of the world. For most of the last two centuries, its population growth was much higher than the rest of the world, partly due to the people's dependence on subsistence agriculture and partly due to high infant mortality rates. That began changing with some prosperity creeping in.

And I would much rather believe a comprehensive study (especially ones done yearly, over decades) than anecdotes.

I have traveled my fair share :). Rather presumptuous of you to assume that I haven't. Have been to six states of the northeast, and almost every state in the union (bar three). Mostly hitchhiked or traveled in local transport, although I prefer driving myself now. I can't think of anybody in the age group of 20-45 who have 4 kids (it's especially rare at the lower end of the band), it's especially striking considering our fertility rate was almost 4 twenty years ago. It's not really difficult to see where things are, if you know where to look. :)
 
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