Indian Economy: News and Discussion

Haldilal

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Ya'll Nibbiars Lloyds Steels Industries Ltd to Invest Rs. 250 cr for capacity expansion of its Murbad unit in Maharashtra.
 
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Haldilal

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Ya'll Nibbiars The Deocha Pacchami coal block, spread over 11,222 acres of land at Birbhum, has potential to supply the energy needs of West Bengal for the next century. But TMC is there.
 

sauntheninja

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The 2021 edition dosen't seem to be the case
  • Undernourishment values are from the 2021 edition of the FAO Food Security Indicators (published July 12, 2021, accessed July 12, 2021). FAO's Gallup telephone-based opinion indicator – the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) – is NOT used in the GHI. The GHI uses the prevalence of undernourishment indicator, which is assessed by FAO using Food Balance Sheet data from each country. It measures the proportion of the population with inadequate access to calories and is based on data regarding the food supply in the country.
  • Child stunting and wasting data are from the 2021 edition of UNICEF, WHO, and World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition Estimates (published April 2021, accessed May 24, 2021), including data from India’s Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey 2016–2018 (CNNS) National Report (published 2019). Child wasting refers to the share of children under the age of five who are wasted (that is, who have low weight for their height, reflecting acute undernutrition). Child Stunting refers to the share of children under the age of five who are stunted (that is, who have low height for their age, reflecting chronic undernutrition).
  • Under-five mortality rates are taken from the 2020 edition of the UN IGME (Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation) Child Mortality Estimates (published September 9, 2020, accessed May 24, 2021). Given the wide range in quality and availability of child mortality data at the country level, it is necessary and prudent for the GHI to use the data from UN IGME for all countries to ensure the values have been properly vetted.
They seem to have purposely worded it weirdly but the rest of the data is from unicef and world bank
 

Crazywithmath

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Hello everyone, I am new to this forum so I would like to know a thing or two about IMF projections. Just gone through their latest World Economic Outlook where they predicted GDP growth at current prices for many economies and found something I did not understand.

Here, they are projecting real GDP growth of 9.5% this year and 8.5% for the next year, i.e., the GDP per capita of India at current prices are rising from the present $1.93k to $2.12k with an average inflation of 5.6%. But based on what I know nominal growth= real growth+ inflation +(-) currency appreciation(depreciation). I checked out various other emerging economies like Bangladesh and Indonesia and for them this calculation holds. But for India they are ignoring the inflation part completely. Is there any specific reason? Please someone answer. How on earth does a real growth of 9.5% translate into a mere increase of some ~$180 in per capita GDP? @Haldilal @Crazywithmath @gslv markIII @ezsasa
No idea mate; just observed after you pointed it out. @ezsasa @gslv markIII looks like the IMF is ignoring/not adding inflation while calculating pcGDP of India. Any specific reason; I mean this will artificially deflate India's nominal GDP!
 

Crazywithmath

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The 2021 edition dosen't seem to be the case
  • Undernourishment values are from the 2021 edition of the FAO Food Security Indicators (published July 12, 2021, accessed July 12, 2021). FAO's Gallup telephone-based opinion indicator – the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) – is NOT used in the GHI. The GHI uses the prevalence of undernourishment indicator, which is assessed by FAO using Food Balance Sheet data from each country. It measures the proportion of the population with inadequate access to calories and is based on data regarding the food supply in the country.
  • Child stunting and wasting data are from the 2021 edition of UNICEF, WHO, and World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition Estimates (published April 2021, accessed May 24, 2021), including data from India’s Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey 2016–2018 (CNNS) National Report (published 2019). Child wasting refers to the share of children under the age of five who are wasted (that is, who have low weight for their height, reflecting acute undernutrition). Child Stunting refers to the share of children under the age of five who are stunted (that is, who have low height for their age, reflecting chronic undernutrition).
  • Under-five mortality rates are taken from the 2020 edition of the UN IGME (Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation) Child Mortality Estimates (published September 9, 2020, accessed May 24, 2021). Given the wide range in quality and availability of child mortality data at the country level, it is necessary and prudent for the GHI to use the data from UN IGME for all countries to ensure the values have been properly vetted.
They seem to have purposely worded it weirdly but the rest of the data is from unicef and world bank
Cherry picking dubious data. Pakis have all those parameters even worse than India. Why are they ranked higher? CNNS survey showed marked improvement all across India. If the survey is based on that then how come India's score did not improve much, eh?
 

Haldilal

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No idea mate; just observed after you pointed it out. @ezsasa @gslv markIII looks like the IMF is ignoring/not adding inflation while calculating pcGDP of India. Any specific reason; I mean this will artificially deflate India's nominal GDP!
Ya'll Nibbiars I am asking Haldiram about this expect answer in few hours.
 

Crazywithmath

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If you see the points raised in this video there are many states where their rankings got worse instead of getting better
NFHS is not even complete yet and if the GOI ends up publishing contradictory reports on some parameters (CNNS and NFHS) then which one will you trust? And strictly speaking, even that incomplete NFHS survey data actually showed marked imptovement in almost all of the parameters (barring only a few).
 

Cheepek

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The 2021 edition dosen't seem to be the case
  • Undernourishment values are from the 2021 edition of the FAO Food Security Indicators (published July 12, 2021, accessed July 12, 2021). FAO's Gallup telephone-based opinion indicator – the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) – is NOT used in the GHI. The GHI uses the prevalence of undernourishment indicator, which is assessed by FAO using Food Balance Sheet data from each country. It measures the proportion of the population with inadequate access to calories and is based on data regarding the food supply in the country.
  • Child stunting and wasting data are from the 2021 edition of UNICEF, WHO, and World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition Estimates (published April 2021, accessed May 24, 2021), including data from India’s Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey 2016–2018 (CNNS) National Report (published 2019). Child wasting refers to the share of children under the age of five who are wasted (that is, who have low weight for their height, reflecting acute undernutrition). Child Stunting refers to the share of children under the age of five who are stunted (that is, who have low height for their age, reflecting chronic undernutrition).
  • Under-five mortality rates are taken from the 2020 edition of the UN IGME (Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation) Child Mortality Estimates (published September 9, 2020, accessed May 24, 2021). Given the wide range in quality and availability of child mortality data at the country level, it is necessary and prudent for the GHI to use the data from UN IGME for all countries to ensure the values have been properly vetted.
They seem to have purposely worded it weirdly but the rest of the data is from unicef and world bank
This is false. PoU data uses FIES data. Wow, now they have even resorted to blatant lies!

Screenshot_20211016-201113__01.jpg
 

ezsasa

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Hello everyone, I am new to this forum so I would like to know a thing or two about IMF projections. Just gone through their latest World Economic Outlook where they predicted GDP growth at current prices for many economies and found something I did not understand.

Here, they are projecting real GDP growth of 9.5% this year and 8.5% for the next year, i.e., the GDP per capita of India at current prices are rising from the present $1.93k to $2.12k with an average inflation of 5.6%. But based on what I know nominal growth= real growth+ inflation +(-) currency appreciation(depreciation). I checked out various other emerging economies like Bangladesh and Indonesia and for them this calculation holds. But for India they are ignoring the inflation part completely. Is there any specific reason? Please someone answer. How on earth does a real growth of 9.5% translate into a mere increase of some ~$180 in per capita GDP? @Haldilal @Crazywithmath @gslv markIII @ezsasa
apologies for the delay in response mate. let's take this up.

can you elaborate a bit more with numbers please?
 

Fritz

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apologies for the delay in response mate. let's take this up.

can you elaborate a bit more with numbers please?
All I am saying is that the IMF data for India is not considering inflation and calculating the real GDP growth and real GDP only. For instance, a real growth of 9.5% in FY 2021-22 and inflation of 5.6% adds up to a net nominal growth of 15.1% and thus the per capita nominal GDP should rise to about ~ $2.2k+ from the present $1.93k. But they are showing $2.13k only. I checked the previous year data also, they downgraded pcGDP from ~$2.1k to ~$1.93k (8% contraction as per their projection); again no inflation considered. While in case of BD they are increasing their pcGDP from $1.95k to $2.15 considering a real growth of 4.6%. How on earth is this possible?
 

Bhurki

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All I am saying is that the IMF data for India is not considering inflation and calculating the real GDP growth and real GDP only. For instance, a real growth of 9.5% in FY 2021-22 and inflation of 5.6% adds up to a net nominal growth of 15.1% and thus the per capita nominal GDP should rise to about ~ $2.2k+ from the present $1.93k. But they are showing $2.13k only. I checked the previous year data also, they downgraded pcGDP from ~$2.1k to ~$1.93k (8% contraction as per their projection); again no inflation considered. While in case of BD they are increasing their pcGDP from $1.95k to $2.15 considering a real growth of 4.6%. How on earth is this possible?
Exchange rate changes and population growth matters as well when calculating total nominal product in USD.
 

Fritz

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Exchange rate changes and population growth matters as well when ccalculating total nominal product.
Has India's currency been downgraded to an extent where it would affect the per capita nominal GDP by that much? And India has a TFR of ~2.2 or perhaps even lower. Even population growth does not explain it. They are ignoring inflation of India; now whether it is because of lack of data or anything like that ... well who knows!
 

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