Indian Economy: News and Discussion

Bhumihar

Cheeni KLPDhokebaaz
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Has anyone ever discussed what is the role of an MLA, DM, Panchayat, CO, BDO and municipality in regards to economy of a district.
 

Covfefe

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The biggest failure of the liberalization was the failure to create a middle class with purchasing power.
What liberalization instead has done in the past 30 years is that it has created exponential growth in incomes of the well offs where as the downtrodden majority have only seen marginal increase in fortune.
Unlike China where people jumped from absolute poverty to middle class with big spending power,India has only been able to lift people from absolute poverty to a state of vulnerability(low income group) and are mostly susceptible to economic shocks.So it does not come as a surprise that India is seeing a rapid rise in poverty.
View attachment 110966

This is bound to happen when you prioritize only niche service sectors which benefits only a miniscule amount of the population.
As per data from China National Bureau of Statistics, the headcount ratio of poverty has reduced by 94% from 1980 to 2015 in rural China.

In contrast Gini coefficient of income distribution among rural residents in China rose from
0.241 in 1980 to 0.39 in 2011 or by 62% according to the official estimation.

Our poverty is not due to liberalization, it's due to deeply ingrained socialism in administration and society. We will see a few moves to open up, reduce legislations, and then suddenly there is a "son of the soil" movement, environment is dying and "Ambani-Adani" are evil.

The only way ahead is to chase growth ruthlessly and not try to play God by rationing it using variables. Size of the pie needs to chased, and not the endless discussion on its distribution. Higher private consumption would ensure higher public spending and subsequent safety nets.

PS- CMIE and Pew reports need not be taken at the face value. "If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything". I did research work with the CMIE data on automotive R&D spends once, and guess what was one of the outcomes- "SMEs don't have a positive incentive to invest in R&D due to its lack of correlation with growing revenues and the presence of spillover effect for the non-participants" Does that mean, SMEs should not undertake innovation? Hell no. Academics have their ways and their utility is limited.
 

angryIndian

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The pew research center survey data is unreliable. They claim to collect figures from povcal but their figures do not add up. Also, it is not wise to extrapolate a temporary hiccup to paint a larger picture. A lot of surveys made by them and CMIE have extremely narrow sample space. One survey just outright asked a few people whether they had lost jobs or not and then just extrapolated it. The fact that some people might have fallen into poverty cannot be denied at all; the doubts are on the actual figures which seem highly exaggerated. Already posted a detailed analysis here made by an eminent Indian economist.
Even if we ignore facts presented by various organizations.Just look at consumer buying patterns,it reveals a great deal about the living standards in India.

Indian car sales has been sluggish for over a decade with sales of just around 3-4 million units.And If we dig deeper,we find most of the cars that are being sold are those 2-4 lakh tin cans.
Just go to the neighbourhood mall and inquire with the mall manager about the buying patterns,if it's possible.You will find people mostly goto malls for strolling around and not for buying anything.You will mostly find crowds outside ppdi chat/pani puri type food stalls and low end items(bangle store,heena/mehendi store).Outside major cities,you will rarely find people in branded store.

My pal works in an LPG plant of a major PSU.The plant has been running on less than half it's rated capacity for most days of the week.The distributors say there is no demand from the consumer end.This should not be the case as LPG is an essential commodity and the the number one in priority list.

its clear, most Indians including the majority of middle class do not have disposable incomes.
 

sauntheninja

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Even if we ignore facts presented by various organizations.Just look at consumer buying patterns,it reveals a great deal about the living standards in India.

Indian car sales has been sluggish for over a decade with sales of just around 3-4 million units.And If we dig deeper,we find most of the cars that are being sold are those 2-4 lakh tin cans.
Just go to the neighbourhood mall and inquire with the mall manager about the buying patterns,if it's possible.You will find people mostly goto malls for strolling around and not for buying anything.You will mostly find crowds outside ppdi chat/pani puri type food stalls and low end items(bangle store,heena/mehendi store).Outside major cities,you will rarely find people in branded store.

My pal works in an LPG plant of a major PSU.The plant has been running on less than half it's rated capacity for most days of the week.The distributors say there is no demand from the consumer end.This should not be the case as LPG is an essential commodity and the the number one in priority list.

its clear, most Indians including the majority of middle class do not have disposable incomes.
Lpg prices keep increasing along with fuel costs despite jobs losses during the pandemic people who could wfh during the pandemic have there incomes even increased and are the ones who are consuming in the economy for the others with the increased taxation everywhere there is less incentive to spend money
 

doreamon

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Indias poverty is because of its lack of growth in manufacturing sector and lack of agri reform as service sector cld only provide refuge to few .. And why that dint happen is history .. It has been discussed before .. Those forces are still there trying their best to halt india's progress .


Poverty is the necessary element for disruption and revolution .. It is also necessary element for religious coversion .. It is also imp for keeping india's stagnant social structure of ancient times intact as its useful for politics ..
 

doreamon

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Lpg prices keep increasing along with fuel costs despite jobs losses during the pandemic people who could wfh during the pandemic have there incomes even increased and are the ones who are consuming in the economy for the others with the increased taxation everywhere there is less incentive to spend money
The ablity of not being able to buy a lpg cylinder has nothing to do with fuel price , or taxation . People who cnt buy lpg dnt care abt petrol price .. Thats middle class thing . They get their subsidised grains in time and thats enough .. Its a structural problem ..
 

Haldilal

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jackprince

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Even if we ignore facts presented by various organizations.Just look at consumer buying patterns,it reveals a great deal about the living standards in India.

Indian car sales has been sluggish for over a decade with sales of just around 3-4 million units.And If we dig deeper,we find most of the cars that are being sold are those 2-4 lakh tin cans.
Just go to the neighbourhood mall and inquire with the mall manager about the buying patterns,if it's possible.You will find people mostly goto malls for strolling around and not for buying anything.You will mostly find crowds outside ppdi chat/pani puri type food stalls and low end items(bangle store,heena/mehendi store).Outside major cities,you will rarely find people in branded store.

My pal works in an LPG plant of a major PSU.The plant has been running on less than half it's rated capacity for most days of the week.The distributors say there is no demand from the consumer end.This should not be the case as LPG is an essential commodity and the the number one in priority list.

its clear, most Indians including the majority of middle class do not have disposable incomes.
Most Indians are conservative about their expenses and more prone to savings for future. Unlike developed nations, Indians are not given to frivolous expenditure beyond their capacity. You'd hardly find people who maxed out their credit limit even once, which is pretty common in western nations. It is our sense of duty towards our family and future that we are less keen on buying useless expensive stuff. Especially when the same quality and similar fashion is found in less expensive stores.

Most of the branded goods found in the brand outlets are overpriced. Except few, most of the middle class find no point in paying for a tag rather than the actual goods.

As for Tin Can cars, the trend is shifting slowly but surely to more expensive mid-level cars. Fact is, in India parking space is a huge factor of concern in urban areas and it is the urban areas that buy the most vehicles. So, people prefer smaller cars such as sub-4 meter hatchbacks, sedans and now MUVs. The way Tata climbed the steps to 3rd position in the Indian car market shows that India is shifting toward better safety and stuff - but gradually. If petrol price ever comes under GST, the market share of Maruti will drop rapidly.

On the other hand, look at the market and look at the growth in mutual funds - it is the money that growing middle class is shifting toward their future as is norm in Indian household.
 

SKC

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Bhumihar

Cheeni KLPDhokebaaz
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Most Indians are conservative about their expenses and more prone to savings for future. Unlike developed nations, Indians are not given to frivolous expenditure beyond their capacity. You'd hardly find people who maxed out their credit limit even once, which is pretty common in western nations. It is our sense of duty towards our family and future that we are less keen on buying useless expensive stuff. Especially when the same quality and similar fashion is found in less expensive stores.

Most of the branded goods found in the brand outlets are overpriced. Except few, most of the middle class find no point in paying for a tag rather than the actual goods.

As for Tin Can cars, the trend is shifting slowly but surely to more expensive mid-level cars. Fact is, in India parking space is a huge factor of concern in urban areas and it is the urban areas that buy the most vehicles. So, people prefer smaller cars such as sub-4 meter hatchbacks, sedans and now MUVs. The way Tata climbed the steps to 3rd position in the Indian car market shows that India is shifting toward better safety and stuff - but gradually. If petrol price ever comes under GST, the market share of Maruti will drop rapidly.

On the other hand, look at the market and look at the growth in mutual funds - it is the money that growing middle class is shifting toward their future as is norm in Indian household.
Angry Indian want's us all to be consoomers.







According to westerners children should have the right to sue their parents for not providing Iphone
 

Bhumihar

Cheeni KLPDhokebaaz
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The US gormint fears the US farmers most.

A guy with 10 acre of land in USA can feed a family of 10 without any issue and earn from it too.

Suppose a IT coolie In American saves upto 200k doles over 10 years and buys a 10 acre land he can produce enough wheat, sugar, rice, potatoes, pulses, vegetables, Fruits, milk, eggs to feed 10 heads for entire year.
Doing so he essentially decouples himself form the mainstream economy because farmers produce most of their daily requirements in house.

This ends the cycle of Murican banks issuing loans and inflating the prices and charging high interest.

The folks eat healthy so chance of health Risk is also reduced.

Check this for example.



The Murican deep state truly fears the end of consoomerism.
 

Haldilal

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Ya'll Nibbiars Mumbai Nagpur expressway A detailed update about the project upto 20st September 2021. Overall roadworks (PQC) completed is 75 percent completed some of works is sections remain, partial opening looks atleast 3 months away.

The largest expressway project in a single phase and the longest in India is partially completed.
 

Rxbanda

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I have never filed taxes in India. So, not 100% sure. But after watching the video, it seems to me that only those who earn several lakhs per month will get effected by this taxation of PF. The guy showed calculation for someone earning 2 lakhs/mo. and the tax being deducted is not a lot, IMO.
Can someone earning more than that be called middle class? Aren't they more of upper middle class?

Would appreciate members comments. Thanks.
 

HitmanBlood

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The fact that only a small number of Indians have seen a sharp rise in their fortune is an indisputable fact.
In every capitalist contry including China wealth gap between everage joe and uber rich is way too high. This is true since first industrial revolution. People working in factories were paid almost nothing and rich land owners were living aristocratic lifestyle. This income inequality was foundation of Marxist Communist ideology where everyone was supposed to be equal.

If India starts her own industrial revolution today it will take 2 to 3 generations before you see the results. It won't be like a factory opens and everyone in the town becomes rich. Capitalism doesn't work like that. It is slow process that is why many become frustrated and start believing in lies of communism.

Even if we ignore facts presented by various organizations.Just look at consumer buying patterns,it reveals a great deal about the living standards in India.

Indian car sales has been sluggish for over a decade with sales of just around 3-4 million units.
Car sales have many factors its not always about economy. In india go to any major city and tell me where is parking? I drive 2 cars and I know how difficult it is to find a parking in metro city in India. Now add traffic congestions to the mix. Also in India elderly and women mostly don't drive cars. In western countries and even in China this is not the case. Most car owners in India are urban male. The concept of a car for every member in Family doesn't exist in India yet. There are many resons like how Indians prefer to live in inner cities, close to their workplace. How suburban revolution hasn't arrived in India yet.

most of the cars that are being sold are those 2-4 lakh tin cans.
There is no car in India being sold at 2 lakh rupees. Cheapest BS6 Alto is sold at 4 lakh rupees and above. And it sales just as much as Brezza SUV which is a 11 to 12 lakh ruppe car.

Here is Indian car sales numbers
SUVs are dominating in sales in India.

Just go to the neighbourhood mall and inquire with the mall manager about the buying patterns,if it's possible.You will find people mostly goto malls for strolling around and not for buying anything.
You have presented an anecdotal evidence mine is completely different.
In my experience when I go to malls there are huge lines at cashier's counter. Especially on weekends going to a mall means long lines.

anything.You will mostly find crowds outside ppdi chat/pani puri type food stalls and low end items(bangle store,heena/mehendi store).
There is nothing wrong with that. I too prefer to go to such places. Many people in my city drive their 20 lakh ruppe SUV and burn 200 rupee of diesel just to eat 20 rupee of panipuri from a specific street vendor. IMO The taste of food from such vendors are sometimes better than 5 star restaurants.

Also people in India don't like to get ripped off. Some shops/malls sell certain items which are available elsewhere for 10th of the price. So obviously people flock to those places. Now if you are comparing Indian/Asian street vendor culture with west you will be wrong. In west no such culture exists.

My pal works in an LPG plant of a major PSU.The plant has been running on less than half it's rated capacity for most days of the week.The distributors say there is no demand from the consumer end.This should not be the case as LPG is an essential commodity and the the number one in priority list.
Again you have presented anecdotal evidence. One LPG plant owned by one PSU not working in full capacity doesn't mean economy of entire country is down.

its clear, most Indians including the majority of middle class do not have disposable incomes.
I think you are trying to say discretionary income. If you saying Indian middle class don't have any disposal income that would mean gov has taxed all income and that would result in mass starvation and riots.

Indians middle class doesn't have as much as income as middle class in USA this is true and therefore it is obvious that purchasing power in that country is higher. This is also true in case of Chinese middle class vs American.

For ex. A guy with 100cc motorcycle, 1BHK appartment and 32 inch LCD TV would considered middle class in India but in USA same guy would be considered dirt poor. In USA a guy with 3 SUVs, 4bhk bunglow+garage would be considered middle class where the same guy in India would be considered upper middle class or even uber rich in some states. This is why terminology of middle class, and upper middle class, lower middle class changes from country to country. So GDP based on PPP numbers is more accurate in such situations.

What exactly is the disputable issue here ?

The fact that India has a middle class with no purchasing power is a known fact.
In leftist news pieces there is a bias agaist Indian economic progress. This is because they can't say India is doing better under Modi. If INC was incharge they would sing praises of how wonderful and resilient is Indian economy.

Is Indian economy all good?

No. Ofcourse not. There are many issues there. Demonetisation and Covid lockdowns as definitely effected economy of India. However on the other hand Modi gov has initiated major infrastructure projects and reforms. They have also encouraged manufacturing industry more than any other gov in history. So things are atleast moving the right direction.

However this is not something leftists want to admit. They are crying why Modi didn't give handouts to poor masses and why giving benifit to large companies. Well in simple terms those large companies will give jobs to poor masses for years to come where those handouts will runout in short time.

Also coming to agressive taxes by Modi gov. Yes, it is an issue to many. I agree, it should be less. However we as a country is groing through very interesting times. On one hand gov has to revive economy, give subsidy and tax breaks to major manufacturing industries, build world class infrastructure and at the same time mange old legacy congress era handout schemes in a middle of the pandemic where they have to give from hospitalisation to vaccines free of cost.

Here it should also be noted that leftist parties who are crying about high taxes doesn't want petrol diesel to come under GST. They also have schemes like RaGa's NYAY scheme which will increase tax burden on middle class at an unprecedented level.

One thing we Indians need to learn that money doesn't grow on trees. If gov gives something for free they will take it back by other means. There are no economic miracles also. Its a slow process of growth that unfortunately doesn't always benifit the ones who work the hardest. Still this is the best system as the other system only makes everyone equally poor as we have experienced in last 70 years.
 
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