Indian Economy: News and Discussion

Lonewolf

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You are correct, if I consider inflation of 4%.
Nomial GDP growth = 8% (Real) + 4% (inflation) = 12%

3*1.12^10 = 9.3 trillion USD.

He has done some error in calculation by using real GDP growth for nominal.
That 8%is too much looking at past record and we should always make conservative estimate ,not muvh hyped up ones .

There is another factor that's getting ignored u will see a massive boost from the investment that are being currently made.
Thst including doesn't change a lot as it will shift production here , but the majority workforce work in agriculture , we need rmg , plastic , bicycle , etc here to boost incomr and including them in workforce so that in future they can climb the stair
 

TakAman

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That 8%is too much looking at past record and we should always make conservative estimate ,not muvh hyped up ones .


Thst including doesn't change a lot as it will shift production here , but the majority workforce work in agriculture , we need rmg , plastic , bicycle , etc here to boost incomr and including them in workforce so that in future they can climb the stair
Certainly possible. India's GDP in 2000 was 476 billion USD and 1.7 trillion USD in 2010.

That's 3.57x, more than 12% pa. nominal growth. Even more than what I suggested.

But yeah, it's good to be conservative.
 

Crazywithmath

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This is the most optimistic prediction i have seen most seem to think we will only be a 5 trillion economy by 2030 and i fail to see where the 10% growth will come we have never achieved that much growth and will only grow by 10% because we declined by 7% last year
No way that is optimistic. Even IMF expects 6.5%+ and they do not factor in the benefits of reforms, infra spending or PLI. Going realistically, 7-8% looks doable. We might hit 8%+ occasionally (like we did in 2016) but no way will we maintain it. Real growth of 7-8% coupled with inflation of 4-5% and currency aporeciation of 0.75%-1% looks a more achievable situation which translates into an avg nominal growth of ~12%+ in the medium term. Now, economic growth is extremely unpredictable and no need to take any prediction as the absolute measure. And I will repeat what I have already wrote multiple times - double digit is not possible for us (barring outliers like this FY).
 

Alfalfa

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Quick question - Why is everyone adding inflation to growth rates? I have never seen that math before... AFAIK, inflation is subsumed in reported growth rates
 

Bhurki

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Growth rate at constant prices + inflation = Growth at Current price
No addition ..

If G is growth, and A is inflation.
YoY growth Nominal = (100+G)% x (100+A)%

**Note for kids: Why adding makes sense but is incorrect

Expand the equation => Nom Gr%
= (100+G)% x (100+A)%
= G% + A% + GxA/10000
(The 3rd variable product is too small to make much difference)
 
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Chandragupt Maurya

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@IndianYonko
GDP growth rate of Bihar was 10.47% at Constant Price and 15.36% at current prices in 2019-20 , Bihar can easily achieve 20% growth at current prices
Investors have started coming to Bihar
Almost every other day I hear about new factories being set up in Bihar sometimes it’s , textile , sometimes ethanol , food processing , cement , leather , wagon , plastic and so on
 
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TakAman

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Quick question - Why is everyone adding inflation to growth rates? I have never seen that math before... AFAIK, inflation is subsumed in reported growth rates
No, the GDP reported every quarter does not include inflation. It is only real GDP growth. As in Dec 2020, govt reported 0.4 pc growth which was only Real GDP growth. And not nominal GDP growth.

The same is adjusted by a GDP deflator which measures how prices are rising and using the change in GDP deflator and real GDP, the nominal GDP is calculated.

As a rough estimate, nominal GDP growth = real GDP + inflation.

The following should help you:

1627323153061.png



No addition ..

If G is growth, and A is inflation.
YoY growth Nominal = (100+G)% x (100+A)%
You are right, this is the correct and exact equation. But as an estimate you can write = G + A

As (1+G) * (1+A) = 1*1 + 1*(G+A) + G*A, last term is negligible.
So, it is = (1 + (G+A))
 
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Haldilal

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Ya'll Nibbiars

The NewSpace India Limited NSIL, a central government run Public Sector Enterprise CPSE, on Friday said that it plans to invest around ₹10,000 crore over the next five fiscals and will hire around 300 people during the same period.
 

IndianYonko

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Last year, 33 new fintech investment deals worth US$647.5 million were closed in the Indian market in the quarter ending June 2020, compared to China’s US$284.9 million. India’s fintech market is now valued at US$31 billion, projected to grow to US$84 billion by 2025. The fintech transaction value size is projected to grow to US$138 billion by 2023 from US$66 billion in 2019.

:balleballe::balleballe:


After Zomato’s blockbuster IPO demonstrated the appetite for consumer internet firms in public markets, the list of firms planning IPO’s soon continues to grow. After CarTrade, MobiKwik, Paytm and PolicyBazaar, Nykaa has converted into a public entity now


IPO-IPO :playball::playball:


Screenshot_20210727-135154_Gallery.jpg

Yet another week of 1B+ raising. :truestory:
 

Chandragupt Maurya

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@IndianYonko @Maharaj samudragupt
Bihar literally sits on the mountains of gold I hope people in Bihar are aware of this fact and they will demand the full ownership of this tremendous wealth just like the Mizos , Nagas , Manipuris , Assamese , Bengalis , Punjabis , jatts , Tamils , Malyalis , Marathis , Gujratis and others do
Gold Reserves In India: Min Of Mines Informs Parliament Largest Resources Located In Bihar
In India, the largest resources of gold ore (primary) are located in Bihar (44%) followed by Rajasthan (25%), Karnataka (21%), West Bengal (3%), Andhra Pradesh (3% ), Jharkhand (2 %). The remaining 2% resources of ore are situated in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu. The mineral extraction costs including gold vary from mine to mine.
 
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IndianYonko

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@IndianYonko @Maharaj samudragupt
Bihar literally sits on the mountains of gold I hope people in Bihar are aware of this fact and they will demand the full ownership of this tremendous wealth just like the Mizos , Nagas , Manipuris , Assamese , Bengalis , Punjabis , jatts , Tamils , Malyalis , Marathis , Gujratis and others do
, and Tamil Nadu.
i.e. Basically everyone except Bihariz😂😂😂😂
 

Chandragupt Maurya

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i.e. Basically everyone except Bihariz😂😂😂😂
These gold reserves should belong to the Respective state governments
as far as I know gold reserves are owned by the centre
People should protest against this law
the wealth earned from this gold should be spend within the geographical boundaries of These states not outside
 

doreamon

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These gold reserves should belong to the Respective state governments
as far as I know gold reserves are owned by the centre
People should protest against this law
the wealth earned from this gold should be spend within the geographical boundaries of These states not outside
First time seeing a bihari nationalist . 😂
 

Lonewolf

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These gold reserves should belong to the Respective state governments
as far as I know gold reserves are owned by the centre
People should protest against this law
the wealth earned from this gold should be spend within the geographical boundaries of These states not outside
Sorry to say but that's how nation works , some get rich first ,some get later , otherwise ,we will be divided like hell then as a populace , social indicator will vary too much , bihar is going to get rich soon , with the help of industrialization
 

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