Indian Economy: News and Discussion

Crazywithmath

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sauntheninja

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This is under the how we did it section

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an economic crisis, shuttering businesses and cutting jobs around the world. This analysis looks at how the downturn has affected the standard of living in India and China, the two most populous countries in the world.
The focus is on the distribution of people across five income tiers in 2020: poor, low income, middle income, upper-middle income and high income. See the methodology and an earlier Pew Research Center report for more on the definition and meaning of these tiers in a global context.
The key data source for the analysis is the World Bank’s PovcalNet database, which provides access to household survey data on either income or consumption for more than 160 countries. The latest year for which survey data on the numbers of people in each income tier are available is 2011 for India and 2016 for China. These benchmark estimates are extrapolated to 2020 using World Bank estimates of output growth through 2020. One projection is based on the World Bank’s January 2020 forecasts of economic growth in 2020, and the other is based on its January 2021 estimates of growth in 2020. The difference between these two measures is used to represent the effect of the pandemic on the income distribution in each country.
 

Crazywithmath

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This is under the how we did it section

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an economic crisis, shuttering businesses and cutting jobs around the world. This analysis looks at how the downturn has affected the standard of living in India and China, the two most populous countries in the world.
The focus is on the distribution of people across five income tiers in 2020: poor, low income, middle income, upper-middle income and high income. See the methodology and an earlier Pew Research Center report for more on the definition and meaning of these tiers in a global context.
The key data source for the analysis is the World Bank’s PovcalNet database, which provides access to household survey data on either income or consumption for more than 160 countries. The latest year for which survey data on the numbers of people in each income tier are available is 2011 for India and 2016 for China. These benchmark estimates are extrapolated to 2020 using World Bank estimates of output growth through 2020. One projection is based on the World Bank’s January 2020 forecasts of economic growth in 2020, and the other is based on its January 2021 estimates of growth in 2020. The difference between these two measures is used to represent the effect of the pandemic on the income distribution in each country.
'Extrapolated'
There you have it.
 

Crazywithmath

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'Extrapolated'
There you have it.
Also this WB and IMF 'predictions' and 'projections' are problematic in many ways. A complex semi-formal economy like India is incredibly difficult to analyse. So much so that even GOI agencies mess up who have access to raw data points. No point focusing on some random extrapolations considering arbitrary projections. This is why I asked for some actual data and not some weird extrapolations.
 

India Super Power

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Lets first see the Patient

Problem no 1 - Falling Consumer Demand and Spending

Lower disposable income and staggering unemployment has resulted in lower consumer demand relative to the supply for 4 years - 2017–2018, 2019–2020, 2020–2021 and now 2021–2022

People are simply not spending money and expanding their range of purchases.

This is a Huge Cause of Economic stagnation.

Under MMS even though Bad Inflation was around 15%, Spending and Demand were still much higher so the economic damage was much more limited.

Solution - Increase Disposable Income of the Middle Classes!!!

How?

Bringing in Foreign Investors for Manufacturing , Invest more money into Industries, Reduce Direct Taxes, Offer Tax Credits and Incentives, Bifurcate between High Interest Yielding Deposits and Low Interest Loans

Problem 2 - Falling Borrower Confidence and Economic Failure

Borrowers once borrowed a lot of money. Even if 8% defaulted, 92% paid off their loans and interests well and kept the clock ticking.

Today Borrowers are very hesitant to borrow money to invest in India. The criminalization of defaults is a huge reason. Most Borrowers decide not the expand their businesses or decide to invest overseas. Even the Big Companies (Except Reliance and Adani who have a Crony link) are investing overseas.

So rather than 10000 eggs in 100 baskets , we have 10000 eggs in 15 -20 Baskets which is far more risky.

Banks are lending more and more to fewer and fewer borrowers and due to Demo they have huge liquidity to get rid of.

Solution - Dont Criminalize defaults without strong evidence, Increase NPA classification period from 90 days flat to 90 days -5 Years depending on the nature of loan, RBI must be held accountable for missing things in audits, Pay more money to Valuators but hold them accountable for wrong valuation

Problem 3 - Lack of Foreign Investor Confidence in India Inc

Sure FDIs have increased as per reports.

Yet most of those FDIs are investment into Companies and their shares rather than investment into the Indian Economy and People.

For instance in 2020 - FDIs rose by 64% relative to 2019 but 91% of those FDIs were related to 5 Specific Companies. This only causes bloating of shares of these companies. Ambani may have another 400 Cr wedding for another daughter but it wont affect India by even 0.1%

What made our economy boom from 2000–2010 was that Foreign Investors invested far more widely.

Foreign Investors hate our Tax Structure (Toyota, Bosch, Volvo and Caterpillar have all scrapped their Phase III and Phase IV investments into India from 2017–2020 and Nokia packed up and left), our Labor Laws (Winstron did not produce for 182 days, in China over 4 years the non productive days were 7 ), Our Judicial Horror System (Cairn Energy, Amazon, Rolls Royce)

Solution - New Courts consisting of 49% Foreigners to arbitrate disputes involving foreign investors with no SC jurisdiction, Standard Labor Laws, Zero Tax Laws etc. You want your people employed, DONT BE GREEDY FOR TAX.

Problem 4 - The Holes in the Indian Economy

In 2016, we had a Parallel economy of 28 Trillion. This could have grown to 45 Trillion by 2019–2020 out od which at least 27 Trillion would have been bridged to the main economy.

Instead we have a Hole of 4.5 Trillion thats now as big as Rs. 10–12 Trillion

Add to this holes caused by GST of 1.74 Trillion and around Rs. 3 Trillion of other miscellaneous holes and we get a Rs. 17 Trillion Hole

This hole is not even part of the Budget deficit.

This Hole sucks up a big chunk of economic initiatives which become worse because the Duffer Sarkar keeps ruining things.

Solution - Step Printing. Careful , Cautious Printing to ensure that the holes are plugged with Stimulus. First load up the Parallel economy to 45 Trillion from around 25 Trillion today and then bridge the Parallel economy to the main economy using Inclusion of the Organized Sector.

Problem No 5- Mediocrity and No Quality related standards

This is self explanatory.

Problem No 6 - No Investment to improve technology and services

In 2010, Our Service Sector commanded a 70.4% exposure in Foreign Projects and Foreign Services for Foreign Clients in Foreign Countries (4F).

Today its only 40.6% , a crash of nearly 30% in 10 years.

In 2010, over 4500 Firms had business contracts with foreign projects, today its a mere 400 plus.

This is because we didnt evolve and put money in MLAI, Bots, Automation of IT etc and today Singapore, Taiwan and S. Korea have stolen a chunk of our businesses.

Solution- Invest more money into training and research and education to produce Garage based creators who wont fly off the USA or Singapore

So now the Economy and its problems are clear. Who will implement any of these suggestions? Nobody
 

India Super Power

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Lets first see the Patient

Problem no 1 - Falling Consumer Demand and Spending

Lower disposable income and staggering unemployment has resulted in lower consumer demand relative to the supply for 4 years - 2017–2018, 2019–2020, 2020–2021 and now 2021–2022

People are simply not spending money and expanding their range of purchases.

This is a Huge Cause of Economic stagnation.

Under MMS even though Bad Inflation was around 15%, Spending and Demand were still much higher so the economic damage was much more limited.

Solution - Increase Disposable Income of the Middle Classes!!!

How?

Bringing in Foreign Investors for Manufacturing , Invest more money into Industries, Reduce Direct Taxes, Offer Tax Credits and Incentives, Bifurcate between High Interest Yielding Deposits and Low Interest Loans

Problem 2 - Falling Borrower Confidence and Economic Failure

Borrowers once borrowed a lot of money. Even if 8% defaulted, 92% paid off their loans and interests well and kept the clock ticking.

Today Borrowers are very hesitant to borrow money to invest in India. The criminalization of defaults is a huge reason. Most Borrowers decide not the expand their businesses or decide to invest overseas. Even the Big Companies (Except Reliance and Adani who have a Crony link) are investing overseas.

So rather than 10000 eggs in 100 baskets , we have 10000 eggs in 15 -20 Baskets which is far more risky.

Banks are lending more and more to fewer and fewer borrowers and due to Demo they have huge liquidity to get rid of.

Solution - Dont Criminalize defaults without strong evidence, Increase NPA classification period from 90 days flat to 90 days -5 Years depending on the nature of loan, RBI must be held accountable for missing things in audits, Pay more money to Valuators but hold them accountable for wrong valuation

Problem 3 - Lack of Foreign Investor Confidence in India Inc

Sure FDIs have increased as per reports.

Yet most of those FDIs are investment into Companies and their shares rather than investment into the Indian Economy and People.

For instance in 2020 - FDIs rose by 64% relative to 2019 but 91% of those FDIs were related to 5 Specific Companies. This only causes bloating of shares of these companies. Ambani may have another 400 Cr wedding for another daughter but it wont affect India by even 0.1%

What made our economy boom from 2000–2010 was that Foreign Investors invested far more widely.

Foreign Investors hate our Tax Structure (Toyota, Bosch, Volvo and Caterpillar have all scrapped their Phase III and Phase IV investments into India from 2017–2020 and Nokia packed up and left), our Labor Laws (Winstron did not produce for 182 days, in China over 4 years the non productive days were 7 ), Our Judicial Horror System (Cairn Energy, Amazon, Rolls Royce)

Solution - New Courts consisting of 49% Foreigners to arbitrate disputes involving foreign investors with no SC jurisdiction, Standard Labor Laws, Zero Tax Laws etc. You want your people employed, DONT BE GREEDY FOR TAX.

Problem 4 - The Holes in the Indian Economy

In 2016, we had a Parallel economy of 28 Trillion. This could have grown to 45 Trillion by 2019–2020 out od which at least 27 Trillion would have been bridged to the main economy.

Instead we have a Hole of 4.5 Trillion thats now as big as Rs. 10–12 Trillion

Add to this holes caused by GST of 1.74 Trillion and around Rs. 3 Trillion of other miscellaneous holes and we get a Rs. 17 Trillion Hole

This hole is not even part of the Budget deficit.

This Hole sucks up a big chunk of economic initiatives which become worse because the Duffer Sarkar keeps ruining things.

Solution - Step Printing. Careful , Cautious Printing to ensure that the holes are plugged with Stimulus. First load up the Parallel economy to 45 Trillion from around 25 Trillion today and then bridge the Parallel economy to the main economy using Inclusion of the Organized Sector.

Problem No 5- Mediocrity and No Quality related standards

This is self explanatory.

Problem No 6 - No Investment to improve technology and services

In 2010, Our Service Sector commanded a 70.4% exposure in Foreign Projects and Foreign Services for Foreign Clients in Foreign Countries (4F).

Today its only 40.6% , a crash of nearly 30% in 10 years.

In 2010, over 4500 Firms had business contracts with foreign projects, today its a mere 400 plus.

This is because we didnt evolve and put money in MLAI, Bots, Automation of IT etc and today Singapore, Taiwan and S. Korea have stolen a chunk of our businesses.

Solution- Invest more money into training and research and education to produce Garage based creators who wont fly off the USA or Singapore

So now the Economy and its problems are clear. Who will implement any of these suggestions? Nobody
A friend of mine sent this
 

Crazywithmath

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A friend of mine sent this
Your friend wrote long paragraphs but mostly rhetorical. The main reasons of economic slowdown have been discussed time and time again in this thread. When you do not carry out a single meaningful reform and get involved in bullshit like inclusive growth and those right to everything drama and worse, reverse much of the good decisions taken by the previous governments just coz you are in alliance with left parties who are putting pressure and yet try to inflate economy by issuing oil bonds and giving away easy loans that would later create one of the world's worst NPA crisis you do not deserve consistent high growth. Economy is a long term thing. There is no magic wand that can instantaneously stimulate your economy. You reap what you sow but only 10 years later. NDA's problem was that they were slow to identify the mess in banking sector and resulting NPAs. @ezsasa can you elaborate on the slow credit growth part and recent loosening of previously tight banking policies?
 

ezsasa

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Your friend wrote long paragraphs but mostly rhetorical. The main reasons of economic slowdown have been discussed time and time again in this thread. When you do not carry out a single meaningful reform and get involved in bullshit like inclusive growth and those right to everything drama and worse, reverse much of the good decisions taken by the previous governments just coz you are in alliance with left parties who are putting pressure and yet try to inflate economy by issuing oil bonds and giving away easy loans that would later create one of the world's worst NPA crisis you do not deserve consistent high growth. Economy is a long term thing. There is no magic wand that can instantaneously stimulate your economy. You reap what you sow but only 10 years later. NDA's problem was that they were slow to identify the mess in banking sector and resulting NPAs. @ezsasa can you elaborate on the slow credit growth part and recent loosening of previously tight banking policies?
no mate, don’t know much about credit side of the story.

maybe @captscooby81 knows, his industry gets impacted the most during credit crunch.
 

Bhumihar

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Yes. even so called middle class in india is poor compared to the middle class of rest of the world.
U are forgetting something T90 4000 to 3000 Rupee in India can put the meals on the table for a family of 4.
The same amount won't even get u food for 10 days in USA, Europe, Australian, Canada, Japan, Korea, etc.

Adjust the earning to living cost.

1 kg White rice cost 4$ in America. That's 300 rs.
U can get India gate basmati rice 5 kg for that much here.


Nearly 5 times native purchasing power.

U can RS 30 kg rice as well, that's what most lower class people eat 10 kg rice.
 

sorcerer

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EPFO payroll data: 12.76 lakh net subscribers added during April, 2021


Posted On: 20 JUN 2021 5:09PM by PIB Delhi



The provisional payroll data of EPFO published on 20th June, 2021 highlights that EPFO has added around 12.76 lakh net subscribers during April, 2021. Despite the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic, April 2021 registered an increase of 13.73% net subscribers addition as compared to the previous month during which around 11.22 lakh net subscribers were added to the payroll. Data reflects that the number of exits in the month of April, 2021 have declined by 87,821 and rejoining has increased by 92,864 subscribers as compared to March, 2021.


Of the 12.76 lakh net subscribers added during the month, around 6.89 lakh new members have come into the social security coverage of EPFO for the first time. Around 5.86 lakh net subscribers exited and then rejoined EPFO by changing their jobs within the establishments covered by EPFO and choose to retain membership through transfer of funds rather than opting for final settlement.


Age-wise comparison of payroll data shows that the age-group of 22-25 years has registered highest number of net enrollments with around 3.27 lakh additions during the month of April, 2021. This is followed by age-group of 29-35 with around 2.72 lakh net enrollments. The members of 18-25 age-groups, usually first timers in the job market, have contributed around 43.35% of total net subscriber additions in April, 2021.


State-wise comparison of payroll figures shows that establishments registered with the states of Maharashtra, Haryana, Gujarat, Tamilnadu and Karnataka to remain in forefront by adding approximately 7.58 lakh subscribers during the month, which is around 59.41% of total net payroll addition across all age groups. The North Eastern (NE) states have shown above average growth in terms of net subscribers addition as compared with previous month.


Gender-wise analysis indicates that the share of female’s enrolment is approximately 22% of total net subscribers addition during the month. Month-on-month analysis reveals an increasing trend in net female subscribers by adding 2.81 lakh enrollments during April, 2021 which was 2.42 lakh during March, 2021. In addition to this, number of female subscribers who have come under the ambit of EPFO for the first time, has also increased to 1.90 lakh in April, 2021 from 1.84 lakh in March, 2021.


Industry-wise payroll data indicates that ‘expert services’ category (consisting of manpower agencies, private security agencies and small contractors etc.) constitutes 45% of total subscribers addition during the month. In addition, industries involved in making plastic products, beedi, schools, banks and establishments related to iron & steel sectors have also registered above average growth in terms of net addition of subscribers during the of April, 2021 as compared to the previous month of March, 2021.


The payroll data is provisional since the data generation is a continuous exercise as updation of employee record is a continuous process. The previous data hence gets updated every month. Since April, 2018 EPFO has been releasing payroll data covering the period September 2017 onwards.
 

fire starter

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PPP is basically a big Bull S**t. If you have 10 lakh salary{ ( 14000 USD ) upper middle class} & you are top 1% of indian pop you still poor by world standard. an indian will buy I-Phone at same rate as a low wage earner in west, so a car etc. as for food india food intake in india is basically chana daal :lol:. Indian economy is basically same old British system, import goods export wealth.White sahib have been replaced by brown sahibs.
Nigga Salaries and quality of living are compared on the basis of PPP, western countries are more expensive so the income there are also high.
 

Bhumihar

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The guy in the article sites Pew Research and they clearly emphasised how the world middle class aren't Middle class by American and European standards.

@t 90s scroll article are generally discouraged here and now u know the reaosn by.
Scroll gets fund from omadiyar foundation to churn out misinformation.
And look even a well to do guy like u have fallen into the trap now imagine how many more people believe in this shit.
 

FalconSlayers

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srevster

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This is a stupid way to look at it. The appropriate way to consider wealth is to see what is your savings rate at the end of the month. The wealthy western states, the middle class sustains itself on credit and likely has a savings rate of 300-400 dollars a month. Someone earning one lakh per month in India will have a savings rate higher than that and some earning 50,000 to 75,000 per month will likely match that savings rate. Your argument makes sense for exchanging currency but doesn’t make sense when you look at savings and ability to build wealth.

The average US salary is $50k per year.

That is roughly 4.5k per month and 3.6k per month after taxes.

3600
-1200 for rent
-800 for food
-200 for car insurance
-200 for health insurance
-300 for gas
-600 for car payments
-200 to 300 credit card payments

That’s 3300 outgoing cash and 300 in savings.

I know many middle class families in India that save more than 300 a month with a 70,000 per month salary. In fact many auto drivers can attain this savings rate. The reason the US is wealthy is because the world trades in dollars and their ability to ensure that it is a global currency.

An average Indian will have more assets that are considered wealth than an average American. I’m talking about the ability to accrue monetary wealth. Most middle class Americans will have 3-4K in their savings account because 90% of their salary goes to sustaining themselves and paying off previous debt. In India, the middle class is pinching pennies to pay 50k to 100k to send their kids to university in US paying non-state tuition fees.

PPP is basically a big Bull S**t. If you have 10 lakh salary{ ( 14000 USD ) upper middle class} & you are top 1% of indian pop you still poor by world standard. an indian will buy I-Phone at same rate as a low wage earner in west, so a car etc. as for food india food intake in india is basically chana daal :lol:. Indian economy is basically same old British system, import goods export wealth.White sahib have been replaced by brown sahibs.
 
Last edited:

t 90s

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And food prices are too lower than other in the world.
Wanna compare!???
in proportional to income nope.
I just want to say to members here is that poverty is a b***h. Man can handle it to some extent. Women & elderly face the biggest brunt. govt need to insure some type of basic income for women & elderly folks at least, even a small 1000 per month will be sufficient.
 

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